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Considering what’s transpired this time, two-thirds in an ABCNEWS.com poll say they’re more likely to vote in the next presidential election, in the year 2004. Just 16 percent, by contrast, say the disputed outcome has made them less likely to vote in four years.
Polls aren’t predictive; this one measures views in the heat of the moment, and actual turnout in 2004 of course remains to be seen. But it does indicate — given the close results this year — that the importance of voting has been hammered home.
Interest is highest among those predisposed to vote — adults who say they’re already registered. In that group, 71 percent say this year’s election makes them more likely to vote in 2004. Among people who aren’t registered, just 51 percent say so.
In fact, more than a third of people who aren’t registered say the episode makes them less likely to vote next time. Only 10 percent of registered voters feel the same.
Will You Vote in 2004? |
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More Likely |
Less Likely |
| All |
66% |
16% |
| Registered |
71% |
10% |
| Not Registered |
51% |
35% |
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Two-Thirds Take the Lesson
Not only do 66 percent say they’re more likely to vote next time, a smaller majority, 54 percent, say they’re much more likely to do so.
Here there are partisan differences: Sixty-five percent of Democrats say they’re much more likely to vote in 2004, compared to 58 percent of Republicans and just 46 percent of independents.
Much More Likely to Vote Next Time?
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| All
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54% |
| Democrats
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65% |
| Republicans
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58% |
| Independents
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46% |
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Older (over age 50), better-educated and higher-income adults also are more apt to say the disputed election makes them much more likely to vote next time.
Full Results
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| Much more likely to vote
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54% |
| Somewhat more likely
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12% |
| Somewhat less likely
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5% |
| Much less likely
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12% |
| No difference
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15% |
| No opinion
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3% |
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Methodology
This ABCNEWS.com survey was conducted by telephone Nov. 15-19, among a random national sample of 1,015 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Fieldwork by ICR- International Communications Research of Media, Pa.
Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.
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