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Holding On
Bush Keeps the Edge
in Public Opinion

Analysis
By Daniel Merkle

ABCNEWS.com

Dec. 4— George W. Bush has maintained the upper hand in public opinion since Florida’s vote count was certified last week. But support for Al Gore’s departure hasn’t grown — and most Americans support Gore’s demand for a completed hand recount in two counties.


     Bush’s position seems stronger: people divide evenly on whether they approve or disapprove of how his campaign is handling the disputed election, while they disapprove of the Gore campaign’s handling of the situation by a 35-point margin. That’s worsened sharply for Gore since mid-November, before the Florida vote was certified.
    
Strong partisan differences continue to underlie these views. Among Republicans, 88 percent think Gore should concede. Among Democrats it falls to 31 percent. (ABCNEWS.com)


Fifty-seven percent say Gore should concede the election, about the same as the 60 percent on Nov. 26, the night of the certification. And 73 percent say they’d accept Bush as the legitimate winner, compared to 59 percent for Gore.
     Strong partisan differences continue to underlie these views. Among Republicans, 88 percent think Gore should concede. Among Democrats it falls to 31 percent. Independents side more with Bush, with 57 percent saying Gore should give up.
     Gore loses more of his base when it comes to assessments of his handling of the situation. Eighty-one percent of Republicans approve of how the Bush campaign is handling the situation, dropping to 26 percent of Democrats. Only 51 percent of Democrats approve of the Gore campaign’s handling of the situation, dropping to eight percent of Republicans.

Vote Count
At the same time, 57 percent in this ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll say the two counties that didn’t complete the hand counts that Gore requested — Miami-Dade and Palm Beach — should do so, and should have those tallies counted in the final total. That’s the central issue in Gore’s contest of the Florida results, being heard in Tallahassee.
     This isn’t a change in opinion; back on Nov. 16 about the same number, 56 percent, favored including hand counts in the final tally.
     Most of the people who want those votes hand counted, naturally, are not the same ones who want Gore to concede. Two-thirds of those who want them counted don’t think Gore should concede, and 93 percent of those who don’t want them counted think he should concede. A total of 17 percent of Americans are conflicted. That’s the group that says Gore should concede but that also wants these votes to count.
     But the preference for hand counts in these two counties doesn’t extend to the entire state, possibly because of concerns that such a large task would lengthen the process. Fifty-two percent don’t think there should be a statewide hand count of all votes. That rises to 73 percent of those who want this over quickly, within the next week.

The End
Although most Americans would like this situation cleared up sooner rather than later, it’s not causing undue alarm. Sixty-one percent are not worried about the situation, which actually is up from 52 percent about three weeks ago. And relatively few, 18 percent, say they’re “very” worried about it.
     Most are still more likely to think the situation is the result of a very close election, rather than reflecting a serious problem with the political system, but concern on this point has risen. Forty-three percent see a serious problem in the system, up from 32 percent on Nov. 12.
     Most would appreciate a resolution. Fifty-five percent say it’s more important for this to end quickly than it is for each campaign to make its full case in court, about the same as it was a week ago. There are sharp partisan differences here too. Eighty-three percent of Republicans want it to “end quickly,” compared to 30 percent of Democrats. Independents fall in the middle at 56 percent.

Confidence Slips
Confidence in the Florida vote count has slipped a little since the certification last week. Fifty-one percent of Americans have at least some confidence that the votes have been counted accurately, down from 56 percent a week ago. And only 26 percent are “very confident” in the accuracy of the Florida count. Thirty-one percent express no confidence in it at all, up from 21 percent last week.

High Marks for High Court
Sixty percent of Americans approve of the U.S. Supreme Court becoming involved in this matter, right about where it was before the court heard arguments in this case.
     About three-fourths, moreover, have at least some confidence that the Supreme Court’s ruling will be fair to both sides. But this confidence has its limits. Just 32 percent say they’re “very” confident in the court, while 44 percent are “somewhat” confident.
     These views are less affected by partisanship than most other questions on this matter. Large majorities of Democrats, Republicans and independents alike express at least some confidence in the Court’s fairness. What happens after the court rules is an open question.
     Involvement by the Florida legislature and the U.S. Congress are viewed much less favorably. Fifty-six percent of Americans oppose the Florida legislature getting involved. A similar number, 57 percent, don’t want the U.S. Congress involved in trying to select the winner.

Candidate Preference
As ever, the public remains about evenly split on which candidate they’d like to see in the White House. Forty-six percent say they’d like to see Bush become the next president, 43 percent pick Gore.

Methodology
This ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Dec. 3, 2000, among a random national sample of 757 adults. The results have a 3.5 point error margin. Field work by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa.

Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.

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