These fuel Bush to a 59 percent job approval rating, according to a new ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll. That number is respectable, albeit less than usual for a postwar president. Of his nine predecessors, Bush's six-month rating is better only than Bill Clinton's and Gerald Ford's. Bush's father at six months had 73 percent approval.

The question is how long Bush can maintain overall popularity while lagging on specific issues. He lacks majority support on the environment, energy, patients' rights, Social Security, prescription drugs and campaign finance reform. And while he's got stronger support than usual for a Republican on education, his backing is weaker than usual on the economy.

Economic Threat

While arguably beyond Bush's control, the economy is a real threat to him. Fifty-two percent of Americans now think the nation is heading into a recession, up seven points since April. Positive ratings of the economy have plummeted by 36 points since the election, and dissatisfaction with the direction of the country has risen by 11 points in that time. (Fifty-six percent also see an energy crisis looming — down eight points since April, but still a majority.)

Bush gets 52 percent approval for handling the economy — a majority, but hardly a stirring one. (Clinton's parting approval rating on the economy, last January, was a smashing 76 percent.) And the public divides evenly on whom they trust more to handle the economy, Bush or the Democrats in Congress.

In a sign of the economy's overarching importance, Bush's approval rating is 30 points higher among people who rate the national economy positively than it is among those who rate it negatively — 74 percent approval in the former group, 44 percent in the latter.

Touch Football

The economy isn't the only land mine out there. While some of Bush's personal ratings are strong, one in particular underscores a significant danger, similar to one that bedeviled his father: a sense that he's out of touch with average people.

In this ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll, 54 think Bush doesn't understand "the problems of people like you," the most in ABCNEWS/Post polls since March 1999. Empathy — a sense of connection with everyday folks — can serve as important political cartilage when the going gets tough.

Fifty-three percent also say Bush is not concentrating on things that are important to them. But broadest are the concerns over who's got his ear: Two-thirds of Americans or more say large business corporations, wealthy people and the oil and gas industries have too much influence over the Bush administration, and average people have too little.

Influence on Bush administration
	Too much	Too little
Wealthy people	72%	5
Large businesses	67	7
Oil and gas industries	64	13
People like you	1	67

New President, New Problems

Bush's problems are thoroughly different than Clinton's eight years ago 3 and also different from what some conventional wisdom holds them to be. Most people, for instance, are not claiming they were sold a bill of goods during the campaign: 60 percent say Bush told the truth about the policies he would pursue as president. By contrast, just 46 percent said the same of Clinton at this point in his presidency.

And some criticisms of Bush — that he's not experienced enough or doesn't work hard enough — don't stand up in this poll. Sixty-one percent say he does have the experience and ability needed for the job, and as many say that he works hard enough.

Other criticisms do show some teeth: A lower-than-desirable 53 percent say Bush "understands complex issues," down seven points since the election. Just half say he's brought needed changed to Washington, an issue on which he campaigned.

Personal qualities
Bush...	Yes	No
Has strong personal character	68%	30
Is a good commander in chief	67	29
Has a vision for the future	67	31
Is honest and trustworthy	63	34
Can be trusted in a crisis	60	37
Is a strong leader	55	43
Understands complex issues	53	45
Has done well on the economy	52	46
Has brought change to Washington	50	47
Understands your problems	45	54

Ideology

Bush has greater difficulties in terms of political philosophy. Americans by a 14-point margin say the Democrats in Congress are more open than Bush to the ideas of political moderates (and moderates themselves agree, by 17 points). And 50 percent of Americans call Bush a conservative, well over the number (28 percent) who identify themselves as conservatives. (Half of Americans are self-described moderates.)

This difference is accentuated on the question of government's role in society. Americans by a 30-point margin say providing needed services is more important than holding down the size of government. But by the same margin they say Bush has the opposite priority.

Similarly, 52 percent say protecting the environment is more important than encouraging economic growth; but 81 percent say Bush cares more about growth. Neither of these has budged since April.

What's Important?
	Holding down the size of government	Providing needed services
What's more important to you?	33%	63
What's more important to Bush?	61	30
	Protecting the environment	Encouraging economic growth
What's more important to you?	52%	44
What's more important to Bush?	14	81

The issue of providing services vs. reducing government particularly separates Bush and women. Seventy-one percent of women (compared to 54 percent of men) see services as more important. Services are also rated as more important by especially large majorities of young adults and nonwhite Americans.

At Issue

Bush wins majority approval for his work on five of 11 issues tested: Education, defense, international affairs, the budget and the economy. As noted, his approval falls below a majority on the environment, energy, patients' rights, Social Security, prescription drugs and campaign finance reform.

Bush vs. Democrats

While Americans say that Bush is taking a stronger leadership role in Washington than the Democrats in Congress are, 51 percent to 38 percent, they continue to divide (now by 42 percent to 43 percent) on whose leadership they prefer.

Specifically, the public trusts the Democrats over Bush to handle five of the 11 issues tested — the environment, energy, patients' rights, Social Security and prescription drugs. Bush's approach is preferred on three issues — international affairs, defense and education. They're about even on the economy, the budget and campaign finance reform. Despite their advantage on some issues, the Democrats in Congress, newly in control of the Senate, can hardly relax: Approval of the way Congress is handling its job is down 10 points since April, to 48 percent.

The signal accomplishment of Bush's half-year is the 10-year, nearly $1.4 trillion tax cut approved by Congress — but it still lacks luster in the majority's eye. More than six in 10 doubt that the tax cut will help the economy, and 52 percent say it won't leave enough money to keep the budget balanced and fund federal programs.

An open question is the possible effect of the $300 to $600 tax rebate checks beginning to arrive in mailboxes across the country. Nine percent say they've received their check to date.

Favorability Ratings

Given his strong ratings for character and honesty, 63 percent of Americans rate Bush favorably "as a person," about where it's been since he took office. Dick Cheney has a similar favorable/unfavorable rating, 60-34 percent.

The Democratic Party beats out the Republican Party on this measure — Democrats have a 60-36 percent favorable/unfavorable rating, compared to the Republicans' 51-46 percent. Sen. John McCain, Bush's opponent for the Republican nomination last year, is rated favorably by 57 percent, unfavorably by 30 percent.

New Vote, Same Story

One thing six months of a Bush presidency hasn't changed is the nation's even division between this president and his 2000 opponent, Al Gore. If the election were rerun today, 48 percent say they'd back Bush, 46 percent Gore — as close a verdict as ever.

Methodology

This ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone July 26-30 among a random national sample of 1,352 adults. The results have a 2.5-point error margin. Field work was conducted by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa.