Al Gore leads by seven to 15 points among people who pick other issues as No. 1 in their vote — education, Social Security, the economy. But Bush roars back on taxes: Among likely voters who say it’s their top issue, Bush leads by more than 60 points.
     That isn’t out of line with the norm: In 1996, Bob Dole won tax voters by 54 points. But there may be a bit more of them now — 15 percent of likely voters say taxes is their No. 1 issue, compared to 11 percent in 1996 (albeit out of a different list). And perhaps more significantly, Bush — even if not leading — is much more competitive than Dole on other issues.
     The result is a still-close race, with the edge to Bush. He has 49 percent support in this ABCNEWS tracking poll, Gore 45 percent, Ralph Nader three and Pat Buchanan less than one. Removing Nader and Buchanan from the equation makes no real difference — it’s Bush +3, by 50-47 percent.

Absence of One Dominant Issue
Two issues can dominate an election — a war or a bad economy. In the absence of these a variety of issues usually share the stage, and thus it is this year. Twenty percent of likely voters pick education as the No. 1 issue in their vote; that’s followed closely by the economy (17 percent), taxes (15 percent) and Social Security (14 percent). Compare that to 1992, when a blow-out 42 percent picked the economy.
     There are some differences between groups. Men are twice as likely as women to pick taxes as their top issue, one of the reasons Bush has held a solid lead among men. More men also pick the economy, while more women cite education and health care.
     Similarly, Republicans are much more likely than others to say taxes is their top issue; Democrats are more apt to pick education and the economy. Here’s a breakdown:

Top Issue:
	All	Men	Women	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.
Education	20%	15%	24%	24%	16%	19%
Economy	17%	20%	14%	20%	12%	19%
Taxes	15%	21%	10%	6%	29%	11%
Soc. Security	14%	14%	15%	17%	12%	15%
Health care	12%	7%	16%	16%	7%	12%
World affairs	8%	9%	8%	5%	10%	13%
Rx drugs	6%	7%	5%	8%	5%	3%

It’s even more interesting when you look at vote preferences. Among people who pick education as the most important issue in their vote, Gore leads by 13 points; the economy, Gore +15; Social Security, Gore +7. But among those who pick taxes, it’s Bush +62.
     As noted in Tuesday’s tracking poll, Gore’s having trouble maintaining the traditional Democratic advantage on Social Security because of the popularity of Bush’s proposal to let people invest a portion of their retirement taxes in the stock market.
     The 1996 exit poll is not directly comparable because of different choices and different wording; for example it listed “Medicare/Social Security” as a single issue. But among those who picked it, Clinton beat Dole by 41 points. In 1996 Clinton won by 34 points among voters who picked “economy/jobs” as their top issue, and by a huge 62 points among those who cited education as their No. 1 issue.

Vote Preference:
	All	Gore	Bush	Gap	1996
Education	20%	54%	41%	Gore +13	Clinton +62
Economy	17%	54%	39%	Gore +15	Clinton +34
Taxes	15%	18%	80%	Bush +62	Dole +54
Soc. Security	14%	53%	46%	Gore +7	Clinton +41

Voters Satisfied With Options
On another subject, there’s no reliable way to predict turnout next Tuesday, but if it’s low, this poll suggests an explanation: Not dissatisfaction with the candidates, but a surfeit of satisfaction. Majorities of likely voters say either candidate would probably make a good president: Fifty-nine percent say that of Gore, and a bit more, 64 percent, say it’s true of Bush.
    

Methodology
This poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 29-31 among a random national sample of 1,036 likely voters. The results have a three-point error margin. ABCNEWS and The Washington Post are sharing data collection for this tracking poll, then independently applying their own models to arrive at likely voter estimates. Field work by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa.

Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.