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Only seven percent of likely voters in the latest ABC News tracking poll say George W. Bush’s arrest on that distant evening in Kennebunkport raises serious questions about his qualifications for the presidency. Only five percent say it makes them much less likely to support him. And in both cases, nearly all those who do care already support Al Gore.
The revelation certainly got quick currency: By Friday night, 91 percent of likely voters had heard or read about it. But it didn’t change a thing: Bush has 49 percent support, Gore 45 percent, Ralph Nader three and Pat Buchanan one — essentially where the race has been, give or take a few points, since Labor Day.
Bush has held a numerical lead — one to five points — in 18 of 22 ABC News polls dating to Sept. 6. (Three others were a tie and it was Gore +2 back on Oct. 1). While it’s Bush’s edge, that is a close race; turnout may make the difference, so can the battle in individual states, and so can a late change among lightly committed voters.
Not Since 1980
Consider the last time a race looked this close: The final Gallup poll on Nov. 2, 1980, had a slim three-point lead for Ronald Reagan, 47-44 percent. But two days later it wasn’t close at all: Reagan won by 10 points, 51-41 percent, in an electoral landslide.
Of course the purpose of pre-election polls goes well beyond the horse race; fundamentally they’re an effort to find out what issues voters care about, and why. They also show what issues people don’t care about, and the Bush DUI of 1976 is one.
Eighty-two percent of likely voters say the incident isn’t relevant to the campaign; among the 17 percent who say it is relevant, virtually all are Gore supporters anyway. Among Bush supporters, exactly one person in this poll said the DUI raises serious concern.
Similarly, just five percent of all likely voters say the arrest makes them much less likely to support him, including all of two Bush supporters. About as many likely voters, four percent, say it makes them much more likely to vote for him.
These results are in line with past ABC News polling on misbehavior by political figures. Few people tend to be concerned with long-past misdeeds involving personal behavior; of far greater concern are current actions and allegations of professional malfeasance.
DUI Poll Results |
| | Bush | Gore |
| All | Supporters | Supporters |
Arrest raises serious concerns about Bush's qualifications
| 7% | <1% | 16% | Much less likely to support Bush
| 5% | <1% | 10% | Think it's relevant to the campaign
| 17% | 5% | 30% | | |
Methodology
This poll was conducted by telephone Nov. 1-3, 2000, among a random national sample of 1,495 likely voters. The results have a three-point error margin. ABC News and The Washington Post are sharing data collection for this tracking poll, then independently applying their own models to arrive at likely voter estimates. Field work by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa.
Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.
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