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Despite the news, 61 percent of likely voters still call Bush “honest and trustworthy,” about where it’s been, and 15 points better than Al Gore’s rating on this score. In fact it’s Gore’s rating for honesty that’s been suffering; it’s now its weakest to date.
Seventy percent of likely voters, moreover, say Bush has “strong personal character.” That includes three-quarters of independents, and it’s 12 points better than Gore’s rating for character. This is from interviews entirely after the DUI story broke.
Forty-two percent do say Bush did the wrong thing by keeping the arrest quiet all these years. But even on this question, slightly more — 47 percent — say he did the right thing. Most of those who take his side, naturally, are his political supporters.
These results underscore the difficulty Gore’s had gaining traction in this election — particularly the even split on whether he’s honest and trustworthy.
Nonetheless the race remains close: In Thursday to Saturday interviews, Bush has 49 percent support in this ABCNEWS tracking poll, Gore 45 percent, Ralph Nader 3 and Pat Buchanan 1. The race has been steady: Bush with 48 or 49 percent, Gore with 45, for six days straight.
Experience: Edge to Gore
It’s a fair question why Gore has remained so close, given Bush’s big edge on honesty and character and his competitiveness on the issues (see Tracking #15). One reason is that Gore holds a big edge on experience; 73 percent say he’s got the right kind of experience to be president, compared to just 53 percent for Bush — Bush’s worst score for experience in ABCNEWS polls. Gore’s been trying to capitalize on the experience gap in the campaign’s closing days.
Moreover, experience plays into another Gore advantage, satisfaction with the condition of the country, after eight years of a Clinton/Gore administration. Sixty-one percent of likely voters say they’re satisfied with the way things are going in the United States, and that group favors Gore over Bush by 60 to 36 percent.
The dissatisfied minority goes even more strongly for Bush. Just over a third of likely voters are dissatisfied with the way things are going; they favor Bush by 72 to 20 percent.
How Things Are Going |
| | Bush | Gore |
| All | Supporters | Supporters |
Satisfied
| 61% | 36% | 60% |
Dissatisfied
| 36% | 72% | 20% |
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Gore’s best hope is that enough lightly committed voters make a final evaluation that they like the country’s condition and think Gore has the best experience to continue it. Bush’s best hope is that his call for smaller government, his competitiveness on the issues and his advantage on character outweigh any desire for continuity.
Wild Cards
There are wildcards. Eight percent of likely voters are still weakly committed; if they moved in one direction it could still change a close race into a blowout — which is what seems to have happened in the closing days of the 1980 election.
Turnout is key as well. High turnout by groups that are lopsidedly Democratic — blacks, union voters and big-city residents are examples — would clearly help Gore, particularly in the battleground states. Bush, in turn would benefit from high turnout among pro-Republican groups, such as conservatives, white Protestants and the religious right.
There’s also the Nader factor — including the questions of whether some Nader voters switch to Gore, and whether there are enough of them to make a difference. Nader’s drawing just 3 percent nationally, but more in some states.
Half of Nader’s supporters still say they might change their minds — and their second choice is Gore over Bush by 57-23 percent.
Women and Swing Voters
The gender gap remains large, with Bush leading among men by 20 points and Gore leading among women by 10. That 30-point gap is more than twice the size of the average gender gap in the last five elections. Most men have consistently backed Bush throughout the fall; women’s preferences have been more variable.
Bush has a slight edge among swing voter groups including independents, white Catholics and lightly committed voters, reflecting Bush’s slim lead overall. But the race is essentially tied among two other key groups, middle-income voters and suburbanites.
Voter Groups |
| |
Bush |
Gore |
|---|
| Men |
57% |
37% |
| Women |
42% |
52% |
| Independents |
48% |
40% |
| White Catholics |
50% |
45% |
| Changeable Voters |
38% |
29% |
| Income: $30,000 - $50,000 |
48% |
46% |
| Suburbanites |
48% |
46% |
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Methodology
This poll was conducted by telephone Nov. 2-4 among a random national sample of 1,741 likely voters. The results have a 2.5-point error margin. ABCNEWS and The Washington Post are sharing data collection for this tracking poll, then independently applying their own models to arrive at likely voter estimates. Field work by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa.
Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.
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