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Polls are not predictive, but recent history suggests they do. ABCNEWS polls over the past 15 years show that public support for military action by the United States is not automatic. And when given, it tends to last.
The Gulf War is a prime example: Support for U.S. policy started high and stayed high, defying suggestions that the public's patience would wane during the long pre-war buildup. All the way from August 1990 to January 1991, before the shooting began, two-thirds to three-quarters of Americans supported military action against Iraq. More recently, support for the 1999 air war on Serbia started low, but jumped to a majority when the bombing began — and stayed there to the end.
Despite conventional wisdom, moreover, public support for military action is not a knee-jerk reaction. If the case isn't made, support doesn't materialize. U.S. military involvement in Bosnia, Haiti and Somalia all lacked majority support.
Going further back, it's been suggested that support for John F. Kennedy surged in an automatic expression of patriotism after the unsuccessful Bay of Pigs invasion. In fact, while Kennedy's approval rating didn't suffer after the Bay of Pigs, it didn't advance, either, remaining stable around 75 percent.
The movement last week was massive: The public closed ranks behind President Bush, his approval rating soaring by 31 points in a single week, from 55 percent to 86 percent — the steepest surge in presidential approval on record. (FDR's approval was already high in late 1941, 72 percent. After Pearl Harbor it jumped to 84 percent).
Today 86 percent also say they support military action against those responsible for last week's terror attacks, even if it means war. And 69 percent say they'd support military action even if it means a long war with substantial U.S. military casualties.
The Elements of Support
ABCNEWS polls suggest several elements that build public support for military action. They include a sense of threat to this nation, a belief that the vital interests of the United States are involved, a clear policy with a specific purpose and an identifiable target, an overwhelming humanitarian goal, and international consensus.
Not all are required; majorities came to support U.S. military action in Serbia, and said they'd support it in Rwanda, apparently in response to the humanitarian crises there. But the strongest impetus clearly is a sense of threat to the United States. That's starkly clear today — indeed the current, overwhelming support for U.S. military action probably can be characterized as a desire for self-defense as much as for retaliation or reprisal.
The sense of threat today is even more direct than it was in the Gulf War, when oil supplies were a main concern. And it seems to have been lacking in public views of the Vietnam and Korean wars, in which initial public support declined fairly rapidly.
The desire for self-protection helps explain why military action taken specifically against terrorists — as opposed to other military action — is persistently popular. In polls from 1986 to 1990, from two-thirds to eight in 10 Americans said they would approve of military action against Iraq, Iran, Syria and "any Middle Eastern nation" shown to be supporting terror.
Combatting
Terror
Military
Action if Linked to Terror
Percent
Supporting
Iraq
(8/90)
81%
Any
Middle Eastern Country
79
Iran
or Syria (4/86)
67
In another example of the power of a sense of threat, an ABCNEWS poll in 1994 found 77 percent support for taking "all action necessary, including the use of military force" to make sure North Korea didn't obtain nuclear weapons. And in specific events, the public overwhelmingly approved of U.S. air raids on Libya in 1986 and Afghanistan and Sudan in 1998, all linked to terrorist attacks on Americans. Support also was high for bombing attacks on Iraq after the Gulf War.
Approval of Missile
Attacks
APPROVE
Iraq
(weapons inspectors 12/98)
73%
Afghanistan
and Sudan (terrorism 8/98)
80
Iraq
(cease fire violation 9/96)
79
Iraq
(Bush assassination plot 6/93)
63
Iraq
(cease fire violation 1/93)
83
Libya
(terrorism 4/86)
76
Making the Case
Even when it doesn't immediately exist, the case for military action can be made. Initially in March 1999 only 26 percent of Americans supported air strikes against Serbia. Within two weeks this had grown to 47 percent; when the bombing began it reached 60 percent; and a week later it peaked at 68 percent.
Part of this was a rallying-around effect. But part, as well, was a growing sense that U.S. interests were at stake, growing concern about the humanitarian crisis, and a sense of shared purpose created by allied action. Such elements, as noted, were not present, or persuasive, in Bosnia, Haiti and Somalia.
Humanitarian Intervention
Serbia 4/99
Serbia 3/99
Bosnia 12/95
Vital Interest at Stake
45%
27
39
Clear Policy
na
na
34
Support for Military Action
68
26
40
Humanitarian Intervention
Haiti 9/94
Rwanda 5/94
Somalia 10/93
Vital Interest at Stake
31%
33
23
Clear Policy
25
23
27
Support for Military Action
31
56
45
Learning From the Gulf War
As noted, support for military action can be quite resilient once the case has been made. Opinion during the Gulf War in particular belies the notion that the public demands quick action.
From the beginning, more than nine in 10 Americans thought it was important to the United States that Iraq withdraw from Kuwait, including 72 percent who called it "very important." That produced immediate and lasting support for military action.
Right after the invasion of Kuwait, two-thirds of Americans said the United States should take all action necessary, including military force, to get Iraq to withdraw. That increased to three-fourths within weeks, then returned to two-thirds in the fall and winter as the standoff continued. Support remained broad throughout, never dropping below 65 percent. And it grew leading to the Jan. 15, 1991, deadline.
Support for actually going to war with Iraq remained a few points behind support for the "use of military force," but was still a majority. It peaked at 69 percent three days before the war began.
Declaring War
A rally-'round did kick in once the shooting war began. Approval of the war against Iraq bumped up to three-fourths the night it started, and never fell below that level. Americans, moreover, overwhelmingly said they'd support a ground war against Iraq if the air strikes proved ineffective.
That resolve was never tested; neither, given the quick success of the air war, was the public's expressed willingness to tolerate substantial U.S. casualties. What we do know is that most Americans said they'd support a war, held that line during the months-long buildup, and did support it once it began.
Lessons of Vietnam/Korea
The trend of opinion during the Vietnam War tells another story. Skepticism grew as the conflict lagged on. In September 1965, just 24 percent called it "a mistake" to have sent U.S. troops to fight there. Three years later, in August 1968, that had grown to 53 percent. And 60 percent called the war "a mistake" by January 1973.
In Korea, Gallup found that in August 1950 just 20 percent called U.S. involvement "a mistake." But that more than doubled by January 1951, to 49 percent.
There were many reasons for these levels of dissatisfaction. But one critical one likely was the lack of a perceived, direct threat to the United States significant enough to put American lives on the line. That sense of threat is quite strong today.
Delays Can Cost Public Support
While quick action is not required to sustain public support for military action, delay can cause concern. Shortly after Iraq invaded Kuwait, George Bush's job approval rating for handling the situation stood at 78 percent. But that dipped in the fall as the standoff continued, reaching 61 percent Dec. 2, when a third of those who disapproved said he was moving too slowly against Iraq. Approval soared again after the war began, reaching 94 percent after the cease-fire.
Bush's overall job approval rating was more unstable. It jumped 11 points, to 76 percent, after Iraq invaded Kuwait. But it then fell to 51 percent that October, amid rising economic discontent (the nation was in a recession) and a divisive budget battle with Congress. The delay in military action may have been partly responsible. But it also simply allowed other, negative concerns — economic and political — to regain their clout.
By the end of the war Bush's overall approval rating had soared to 90 percent, the highest of any postwar president. But it didn't last: Economic discontent took over, Bush's approval plummeted, and he lost re-election just eight months later.
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