In sharp contrast to Bush, Americans by more than 2-1 prefer spending more on domestic programs to cutting taxes. In an ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll, 57 percent think his tax plan favors the rich, and six in 10 say that while his overall popularity is high, there are clear danger signs for the president.

Nearly half of Americans say most people have lost ground financially since he took office; just 10 percent say most are better off. The public rates the economy as a greater priority than Bush's signature issue, the war on terrorism. And his postwar gains in support and confidence are much weaker than his father's were in 1991.

Large corporations are perceived to have too much influence in the Bush administration. Barely over half of those polled, 51 percent, say he understands the problems of average people. And the Democrats in Congress lead Bush by 11 points in public trust to create jobs.

Such perceptions can be political quicksand for a president, as was the case for Bush's father in 1991 and 1992, when economic discontent brought him down from a postwar pinnacle to re-election defeat. However, economic views, while weak today, were weaker then — affording this Bush a greater opportunity to duck the punch.

Indeed Bush's greatest resource may be a current climate of postwar public optimism — if it holds against the economy's downward pull. Today more than six in 10 Americans say they feel the country's best years still lie ahead. In June 1992, by contrast, amid a deeper economic funk, six in 10 said the country's best times had passed.

Bush's overall job approval rating stands at 71 percent, high by any standard. But rather than surging after the war, it's slipped by six points in the last month. His rating is 19 points lower than his father's at the end of the Persian Gulf war in 1991, and 21 points below Bush's own peak, a record in modern polling, a month after Sept. 11, 2001.

Far fewer Americans say the war has increased their confidence in Bush's ability to handle other issues than said so about his father in 1991 — 70 percent then, 43 percent now. And in 1991, 55 percent said the war made them more likely to support then-President Bush's re-election (not that it turned out that way); today just 37 percent say the same.

Postwar Ratings
	Now/Iraq War	1991/Gulf War
More confident in the president	43%	70%
More likely to vote to re-elect	37%	55%

Approvals

Three-quarters of Americans or more approve specifically of Bush's work on the Iraq war, terrorism and homeland security. But his domestic ratings are sharply lower — 59 percent approval on education; a tepid 52 percent on the economy; 49 percent or 50 percent on taxes, Social Security and the environment; 43 percent or 44 percent on the federal budget and prescription drug benefits; and an especially weak 34 percent on the availability, cost and coverage of health insurance.

The hazard for Bush, looking beyond the war and toward the 2004 campaign, is that the political discourse in a presidential election usually focuses on domestic issues — clearly his weakest suit. And ironically it's in dealing with foreign affairs — his weakness during the 2000 campaign, and an issue generally less salient to most Americans, except in times of crisis — where Bush now is rated highest by far.

Bumpless

Many of Bush's ratings, moreover, show no postwar bump. Compared to their recent levels, his approval ratings for handling education, Social Security, health insurance, prescription drugs, the environment, taxes and the budget are all flat.

And there's been an underwhelming postwar bump in the number of Americans who say the country is on the "right track" — up nine points from 43 percent last fall to 52 percent now. The wartime bump in 1991 was much bigger, although very short-lived.

Part of the reason is that even though the Iraq war has received broad and steady public backing, it never reached the levels of support for the Persian Gulf war. While 70 percent say the war with Iraq was worth fighting, that compares to 86 percent immediately after the Gulf war in March 1991. (That declined by 20 points during the ensuing year).

Trust and Issues

Bush has significant strengths. He escapes much of the direct blame for the economy's troubles, and holds a 10-point lead over the Democrats in Congress in public trust to handle it. And he absolutely swamps the Democrats in trust to handle security issues — Iraq, terrorism, North Korea, homeland security and the defense budget.

Most broadly, Bush holds an 18-point lead in trust over the Democrats to handle the nation's main problems, a significant advantage, even if it's subsided from a peak 31-point lead in January 2002.

But Democrats have openings in other areas — a big 21-point lead in trust to handle health insurance issues, a top-tier priority; an even bigger lead on the environment (though absent a known crisis it gets a much lower priority); leads in trust to handle job creation, prescription drug benefits and Social Security; and competitive ratings on taxes and education.

It's worth noting that Bush's lead in trust to handle both education and the environment have lost ground from their pre-9/11/01 levels, despite the extraordinary boost in overall approval he's received since then. On education he's gone from a 19-point lead on Sept. 9, 2001, to today's one-point deficit; on the environment, from an 11-point deficit then to 26 points now. His advantage on handling defense, not surprisingly, has ballooned.

Blueprint

All these combine to provide a rough blueprint for the two camps' election strategies. For Bush it's stressing security and the war on terrorism while struggling mightily to right the economy, or at least to seem as if he gets it; and for the Democrats, it's to hammer at economic woes and domestic themes, especially health care issues.

Credit — or blame — for the Iraq war is likely to figure in the text as well, with patriotism as an attendant subtext. This poll finds a fairly broad perception that the Democrats were less supportive of the war, and the Republicans more so; the Gulf war was much more widely seen as bipartisan. Views this time could accrue to Bush and the Republicans' benefit — but perhaps not if the United States gets bogged down in a drawn-out peacekeeping role, a concern expressed by more than seven in 10 Americans.

Strength vs. Empathy

Strength itself is another Bush strength: Seventy-four percent of Americans call him a strong leader, steadily 20 points above its pre-9/11/01 level. But probably more important than strength is empathy, and, as noted, just 51 percent believe Bush understands the problems of average Americans.

A greater sign of disconnect comes in a test of priorities. Two-thirds of Americans say it's more important to them to have the government provide needed services than for it to cut taxes. Yet two-thirds believe Bush has precisely the opposite priority.

In a similar measure, Americans by 68 percent to 29 percent say they'd prefer to have the government spend more on domestic programs than cut taxes essentially unchanged in recent months, despite the administration's efforts to sell its tax plan to a skeptical public.

Groups

A look at demographic and opinion groups shows the significant partisanship that currently divides the country — and the role that issues such as economic views, and perceptions of empathy, play in presidential popularity.

Bush's overall job approval rating, for example, is 88 percent among people who say most Americans are no worse off now than they were before he took office — about half the public. But among the other half, those who say most people are worse off, his job approval is 35 points lower.

Similarly, among people who think Bush understands the problems of "people like you" — again, about half the public — 96 percent approve of his work in office. Among the other half, who think he doesn't get it, Bush's approval rating plummets to 44 percent.

Republicans, naturally, are far more likely to think Bush understands their concerns; Democrats vastly less so, with independents in the middle. And with one of their own at the helm, 72 percent of Republicans say the country's on the right track, compared to 55 percent of independents and just 32 percent of Democrats.

As ever in politics, it's when independents swing that majorities are made. On Bush's side of the ledger, 68 percent of independents approve of his job performance overall. But on the other side, 73 percent of independents prefer more domestic spending to a tax cut; and 61 percent think people like them have too little influence in Bush's administration.

A sense of isolation from the administration naturally is strongest among Democrats, and also among blacks, the most reliably Democratic group in the country, exceeding eight in 10 in both groups. Bush's job approval rating among blacks is just 43 percent. And only 19 percent of blacks think he understands their problems.

Methodology

This ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone April 27-30 among a random national sample of 1,105 adults, including an oversample of blacks (for a total of 169). The results have a three-point error margin. Fieldwork was conducted by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa.

Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.