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  September 7, 2008
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Holiday Gifts
Saddam and the Economy Boost Bush's Poll Numbers

Analysis
By Gary Langer

ABCNEWS.com

Dec. 22 — More than the capture of Saddam Hussein is brightening President Bush's holidays: Economic discontent has eased as well, lifting the president — with the 2004 campaign looming — in what's been one of his most vulnerable areas.

The double-pump of better news on the economy and in Iraq alike boosts the president over a mid-fall slump to a stronger political position than he's seen in months. Fifty-seven percent of Americans are satisfied with his administration's policies, and he tromps Howard Dean, the front-running but still little-known Democrat, by a wide margin.

Some weaknesses remain — including continued sub-par ratings for Bush's work on health insurance, prescription drugs, Medicare and the budget deficit, as well as views that he favors corporate interests (58 percent say so) and has damaged the United States' image in the world (59 percent).

But just 12 percent of Americans express anger at the administration's policies, a subject of some recent news coverage. Nearly six in 10 say Bush has done more to unite the country than to divide it. And while 23 percent "strongly" disapprove of his work in office, more, 39 percent, strongly approve. Bush's overall job approval rating, 59 percent, is its best since August and up six points since early this month. His approval rating specifically for handling terrorism is up seven points since October, to a very high 70 percent.

On the Democratic side, Dean has vaulted to 31 percent support nationally for his party's presidential nomination, with — for the first time in ABCNEWS/Washington Post polls — all eight rivals in single digits. Perceptions of Dean as "too liberal" are no worse than perceptions of Bush as "too conservative." But vast majorities — of Democrats and the general public alike — remain unfamiliar with his positions and personal qualities.

Another result raises questions about Dean's efficacy as an antiwar candidate: Fifty-seven percent of Americans say they're more likely to vote for someone who supported the Iraq war than someone who opposed it. Among Democrats, 58 percent prefer a war opponent. But independents and Republicans prefer a supporter of the war, by 57 percent and 86 percent, respectively.

Economy

While Saddam's capture clearly was welcome news, views of the economy possess more political clout. The economy and jobs are far and away the top issue in the presidential election, cited by 37 percent. (Fourteen percent say the campaign against terrorism is the most important issue in their vote; 9 percent, the war in Iraq.)


Feelings Toward Bush's Policies
 Positive Negative
Enthusiastic 16%  
Satisfied 41  
     
Dissatisfied   29
Angry   12
     
Total 57 42

And Bush's economic footing, while far from ideal, has improved. More Americans now approve than disapprove of his work on the economy — a first since April. Disapproval is down by 12 points from its mid-September high — 56 percent then, 44 percent now.

Positive ratings of the economy's condition, though still not robust, have improved by 12 points, from 30 percent on Sept. 13 to 42 percent now. And while 40 percent still say most Americans are worse off now than they were before Bush took office, that's down from a high of 52 percent three months ago.

None of these economic ratings is what it could be; just 17 percent say Americans have gotten better off financially under Bush, and 57 percent rate the economy negatively. But their trajectory has improved.

Iraq

Similarly, Bush's ratings are better, if not perfect, on Iraq. On the downside, the public splits evenly, 48-47 percent, on whether the administration has a clear plan for handling the situation there; and 60 percent call the level of casualties "unacceptable."

However, this is the first time in polls dating to August that fewer than half said the administration lacked a clear plan. It's the first time since October that concern about casualties hasn't increased. And other ratings are up: Fifty-nine percent say the war was worth fighting, up seven points from last month, before Saddam's capture; and 60 percent approve of Bush's work on the situation there, up 12 points.

Most Americans also continue to give the administration a bye on finding weapons of mass destruction in Iraq; 63 percent say the war can be justified even if none are found, same as it was last summer.


Has the War Contributed to the Security of the U.S.?
 Yes No
Somewhat 29%  
Great Deal 34  
    
Total 62 34

In terms of the war's broadest justification, 62 percent say the war has contributed to the long-term security of the United States — a key point for Bush, and one questioned by Dean. But fewer, 34 percent, say the war has contributed "a great deal" to long-term U.S. security — suggesting there's still room for debate on this fundamental question.

Huge partisan differences remain on Iraq, and there's a substantial gender gap on some of these questions. Women are 10 points less likely than men to say the war was worth fighting, 14 points less likely to believe the administration has a clear plan, and 18 points less likely to say the level of U.S. casualties there is acceptable.

Lastly on Iraq, more than two-thirds say the United States should give the United Nations and other countries a larger role in stabilizing and reconstructing the country; that may well reflect a desire for greater burden-sharing in the costs involved.

Medicare

If the economy and Iraq are looking up for Bush, his efforts to revamp Medicare deliver less. Forty-eight percent of Americans disapprove of his work on Medicare, compared with 40 percent who approve; and his approval rating for handling prescription drug benefits for the elderly is flat, at just 36 percent approval.

It's hard to tell now if this reflects disapproval of the Medicare legislation Bush signed, or unfamiliarity with its terms. Given what they know about it, 37 percent of Americans approve of the legislation, 42 percent disapprove, and a substantial 21 percent have no opinion. That's not substantively different than it was earlier this month.

But some ominous signs remain: Disapproval of the Medicare changes peaks at 50 percent among senior citizens, and even higher, at 63 percent, among the one in six Americans who are following the issue most closely (disproportionately, seniors). As previously, people who are paying the most attention to this legislation like it least.

Election

If the election were today, 50 percent of Americans say they'd support Bush for president, 41 percent the Democratic nominee. (Among registered voters it's about the same, 51-41 percent.) That's Bush's best in this "generic" match-up since spring, up from a 48-47 percent dead heat in late October.

There's a substantial gender gap — men prefer Bush by 55-36 percent, while women, who are more apt to be Democrats, divide about evenly, 45-46 percent. Independents, the quintessential swing voters, favor Bush by 50-38 percent; white Catholics, another key swing voter group, favor him by 53-36 percent.

Bush does better still against Dean: In a head-to-head match-up it's 55-37 percent (again a similar 56-38 percent among registered voters). That's essentially the base Democratic vote; it's hard to go much lower.

Dean does best in traditional Democratic strongholds, among groups such as liberals, union households, lower-income and non-white Americans. And he's very strong among war critics. But 22 percent of Democrats say they'd support Bush over Dean (just 6 percent of Republicans defect in the other direction). And Bush earns 56 percent support among independents compared with Dean's 35 percent.

Dean

Things can change; Dean is running now for the Democratic nomination, which is different from a general election campaign. And as noted, he's not at all well known. Few Americans feel they know a great deal or good amount about either his personal qualities (14 percent) or his position on the issues (17 percent). More than eight in 10 say they know "only some" about him, or less than that.

That, of course, presents opportunity and risk alike — an opportunity for Dean to fill the knowledge gap with an appealing message; and the risk that the Bush campaign will get there first and define him in a negative light.


Trust to Handle Issues: Bush or Dean?
 National Security Issues Domestic Issues
Bush 67% 50
Dean 21 39

One clear point of combat, certainly if the Bush campaign has anything to say about it, will be on the issue of national security, where the president's approval is strongest. Americans by a huge 67-21 percent trust Bush over Dean to handle national security and the war on terrorism. Even among Democrats, Bush leads in this measure, 46-39 percent.

Bush's lead is less overwhelming, but still meaningful, on "domestic issues such as Social Security, health care and education." Fifty-percent trust Bush more, 39 percent, Dean.

Dems

Dean's much stronger in the race he's running now. Among registered voters who are Democrats or independents who lean toward the Democratic Party, 31 percent say they'd support Dean if their state's primary or caucus were today. None of his eight opponents tops 9 percent. Dean's support has doubled since mid-September; he's also soared in polls in several states, including New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

A fascinating aspect of Dean's support is that even Democrats — even Democrats who support him — aren't yet well informed about him. Among his own supporters for the nomination, just 28 percent say they know a great deal or good amount about his personal qualities, and a third say they know that much about his positions on the issues. At the same time, Dean supporters are more apt than other Democrats to say they're satisfied with the choice of candidates, 62 percent to 52 percent.

Dean's support peaks among liberal Democrats (37 percent). But despite conventional wisdom, it's not higher among young Democrats than it is among their elders; nor is it better among mainstream Democrats than among Democratic-leaning independents (if anything, the reverse). He also does as well among non-whites as among whites.

Internet

The Internet thing, too, looks a tad oversold: Dean wins 33 percent support from people who use the Internet for political news and information (just over a third of leaned Democrats); but he also wins 27 percent support among those who don't. Looking at it another way, among Dean supporters, four in 10 use the Internet for political news and information; but among all other Democratic candidates' supporters, it's 36 percent — about the same.

It's a similar story among all Americans, not just Democrats. Bush's approval rating is 59 percent among people who don't use the Internet for news and political information — and 58 percent among those who do. And a Bush-Dean match-up is 55-37 percent among non-Internet users — and 56-38 percent, again about the same, in the online crowd.

All told, 37 percent of Americans say they use the Internet for political news and information, including 15 percent who use it "a great deal." Sixty-three percent don't use it much, or at all, for political information. Use peaks among young adults (50 percent), the most-educated Americans (56 percent), and to some extent among those who take more extreme views of Bush's policies — those who are either "enthusiastic" about his administration, at one end of the scale, or "angry" about it, at the other.

Culture Wars

A final, very interesting result pertains to the so-called "culture wars" — the clash of moral and religious views as they relate to politics. In this survey a majority of Americans, 54 percent, say a president should not rely on his religious beliefs in making policy decisions; 40 percent say he should.

There are many sharp divisions on this question: Republicans by nearly 2-1, 61-34 percent, say a president should rely on his religious beliefs in policy matters; among conservatives it's a similar 59-36 percent; among evangelical white Protestants, 69-27 percent.

By contrast, non-evangelical white Protestants say by 59-36 percent that a president should not rely on religious beliefs in policymaking; so do more than six in 10 Democrats and independents alike; six in 10 moderates; two-thirds of young adults, and seven in 10 liberals.

There are regional differences as well; in the East and West, six in 10 or more say religion should stay out of a president's decision-making; that drops to about half in the Midwest and the South.


Should a president rely on his religious beliefs in making policy decisions?
 Yes No
All 40% 54
Republicans 61 34
Independents 34 62
Democrats 28 64
     
Conservatives 59 36
Moderates 34 61
Liberals 24 72
     
Evangelical White Protestants 69 27
Non-evangelical White Protestants 36 59
White Catholics 37 60
No Religion 9 86
     
South 46 47
Midwest 45 51
West 35 60
East 28 65

Naturally these views cut strongly to political preferences. Among those who say religion should guide presidential policy decisions, 78 percent approve of Bush's work as president, and 70 percent prefer him against the generic Democratic nominee for president. Among those who say religion should stay out of it, by contrast, just 47 percent approve of Bush, and just 36 percent would vote to re-elect him.

Methodology

This ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Dec. 18-21 among a random national sample of 1,001 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation was conducted by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa.

Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.  

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