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Bush signs H.R. 1
President Bush signs the Medicare Prescription Drug, Improvement and Modernization Act of 2003, calling it a historic piece of legislation. (Jason Reed/REUTERS)
Medical Doubt
Poll: Americans Skeptical of Medicare Changes in New Bush Legislation

Analysis
By David Morris

ABCNEWS.com

Dec. 8— Americans are casting a skeptical eye on the Medicare changes signed into law by President Bush, according to an ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll. More disapprove than approve of the legislation, with doubts peaking among senior citizens and among those who've been following the issue most closely.

Among all Americans, 38 percent disapprove of the Medicare changes, slightly more than the 32 percent who approve (many, 30 percent, are withholding judgment). But it's a broader spread — 47 percent to 26 percent disapproval — among senior citizens, and a similar 46 percent to 32 percent disapproval in the next age group, 55- to 64-year-olds.

Moreover, disapproval is highest among the one-sixth of the public — many seniors among them — who have been following the issue most closely. Most people in this highest-attention group, 56 percent, disapprove of the plan; indeed, many of them disapprove "strongly." People who know more about it, this result suggests, like it less.

Partisan Politics

There's a partisan political aspect to views of the plan. It's far more popular among Republicans (49 percent approve, while 23 percent disapprove) than among others. Democrats disapprove by 52 percent to 22 percent; independents, by 41 to 30 percent.

It follows, then, that the legislation has not delivered any immediate political boost to the president. His overall job approval rating in this poll is 53 percent, not up and if anything slightly down from its recent level (57 percent last month and 56 percent in October).

The intensity of views on the Medicare changes underscores the public's response. Just 7 percent of Americans "strongly" approve, while nearly three times as many, 19 percent, strongly disapprove. Strong disapproval rises to 30 percent of seniors and, as noted, 45 percent of those who've been following the issue closely. Fourteen percent of Republicans strongly approve — but twice as many Democrats strongly disapprove.


Medicare Changes
ApproveDisapproveNo Opinion
All 32% 38 30
Very Closely Following 39 56 6
Ages 65 and Up 26 47 27
Ages 55 to 64 32 46 23
Republicans 49 23 28
Independents 30 41 30
Democrats 22 52 26

Who’s Paying Attention?

Just over half of Americans, 52 percent, have been closely following news about the Medicare changes; 17 percent have been watching "very closely."

Close attention peaks among senior citizens — 79 percent of them have been closely following the issue, 36 percent very closely. Young adults, farthest away from such cares, have been paying the least attention.


Following the Medicare Issue
Closely (NET)"Very" Closely Not Closely
All 52% 17 47
Ages 65 and Up 79 36 20
Ages 55-64 65 26 35
Ages 18-34 33 7 67

The $400 billion plan includes Medicare's first prescription drug benefit, starting in 2006; critics say the benefit is inadequate. The public's tepid response to this plan compares unfavorably to the results of an ABCNEWS poll in July, when three in four Americans backed the idea of a prescription drug benefit for seniors.

Follow the Money

In addition to Republicans, approval of the law peaks, at 45 percent, among people with household incomes of more than $100,000 a year; 29 percent in this group disapprove. (This even though the legislation raises some premiums for higher-income Medicare recipients.) In lower-income households, 31 percent approve of the changes, while 41 percent disapprove.

There's also something of gender gap. While 37 percent of men approve of the Medicare changes, 29 percent of women agree; 43 percent of women disapprove, compared to 32 percent of men. Among other factors, women live longer, and they're also more apt to be Democrats.

Polls, some sponsored by groups with an interest in the debate, have had varying results on the Medicare changes. This one avoided language describing specifics of the legislation, instead simply asking respondents if they had been following news "about the changes in the Medicare program that were voted on by Congress," and whether they approve or disapprove of those changes.

Methodology

This ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Dec. 3-7 among a random national sample of 1,029 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation were done by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa.

Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.

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