That, more than anything, is the central political question at the doorstep of the 2004 presidential campaign. A new ABCNEWS/Washington/Post poll finds that Bush crushes top Democratic challengers in head-to-head matchups. Yet at the same time, he looks vulnerable on the same issues that tripped up his father in 1992: economic discomfort, the empathy to recognize it, and the ability to fix it.

Nearly half of Americans today say most people are worse off than they were when Bush took office — and that half of the country favors the idea of electing a Democrat for president by 2-1. Such is the potential price of a troubled economy.

Nearly half of Americans also say Bush doesn't understand the problems of average people — and that half of the country favors a Democrat by an even wider margin, 4-1. Such is the potential price of a perceived lack of empathy.

How these concerns and their political impact play out over the next 18 months is far from certain. But, as in 1992, it's the economy — and the president's ability to connect with ordinary people in economic distress — that again may define the 2004 election.

This time, though, there's another element: security concerns. The echoes of Sept.11, 2001, still ring loudly in the public's mind, and Bush's very strong ratings for responding to terrorism — from homeland security to Afghanistan to Iraq — so far mitigate the damage of economic concerns and his far-weaker ratings on other domestic issues. (See ABCNEWS poll analysis of 5/1/03.)

As a result, in a head-to-head matchup testing Bush against a generic "Democratic nominee for president," Bush leads by 53 percent to 40 percent, with some striking differences among subgroups. It's almost a dead heat among women, and on both coasts. Bush loses nonwhites by nearly 2-1, and blacks specifically by 8-1. He trails in the nation's cities and among the poorest Americans. And he has huge leads in his core groups — among them, Republicans, conservatives and evangelical white Protestants.

The differences by views of the economy, and Bush's empathy, are huge. Among people who think most Americans are worse off, Bush trails by 61 percent to 30 percent. Among whose who think he doesn't understand "the problems of people like you," he lags by 74 percent to 17 percent. And it's a similar margin among those who say the economy's in poor shape.

Does the President ‘Get It’?
Does Bush Understand the Problems of People Like You?	Prefer Bush for President	Prefer Democratic Nominee
Yes (51%)	86%	9%
No (48%)	17	74
Since Bush took office, most Americans have become:
Better off or same (51%)	73	21
Worse off (48%)	30	61
Condition of the Economy:
Excellent or good (35%)	77	17
Not so good (46%)	49	44
Poor (19%)	17	75

Actual Democrats

Testing Bush against an unnamed generic Democrat helps locate his political soft spots, but it isn't the most realistic test, because it allows his critics to conjure up an ideal opponent in their imaginations. Bush does even better when he's tested head-to-head against some of the actual flesh-and-blood Democrats vying for the nomination to face him.

This poll tested Bush against the three leading Democratic contenders, Sen. Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, Rep. Richard Gephardt of Missouri and Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts. They run the same: Bush leads Lieberman by 61 percent to 34 percent, Gephardt by 60 percent to 35 percent, and Kerry by 60 percent to 34 percent. Each challenger received no more than base Democratic support.

It is, of course, exceedingly early in the campaign, and this result underscores how little-known Lieberman, Gephardt and Kerry are in comparison to the sitting president. The eventual Democratic nominee will become far better known over time, as did Bill Clinton in 1992 and Ronald Reagan in 1980 — both of whom initially trailed better-known incumbents, but went on to beat them.

Indeed, in a sign of both the unsettled nature of the Democratic leadership, and Bush's dominance of public attention, this poll finds no public consensus on who's the leader of the Democratic Party: A third of Americans say "no one"; 22 percent offer no opinion; and about one in 10 name Gephardt or Lieberman.

The Democratic Contest

Before they take on Bush, the Democrats take on each other — as they're doing tonight at their first televised debate, shown on ABCNEWS and monitored by George Stephanopoulos. This poll finds a statistically significant lead for Lieberman, likely the best-known Democratic candidate by dint of his exposure as Al Gore's running mate on the 2000 ticket.

Lieberman has 29 percent support among Democrats and independents who lean toward the Democratic Party — numerically his best in any national media-sponsored poll this year. Gephardt has 19 percent support, among his highest; Kerry, 14 percent. All six other candidates follow with support in the single digits.

The results are very similar when narrowed to registered voters, and also when narrowed to Democrats only, excluding Democratic-leaning independents.

'04 Preference Among Leaned Dems
Joseph Lieberman	29%
Richard Gephardt	19
John Kerry	14
Carol Moseley-Braun	6
John Edwards	4
Al Sharpton	3
Bob Graham	3
Howard Dean	3
Dennis Kucinich	2

But there's a difference in the attention factor. Given the early stage of the race, relatively few leaned Democrats are paying much attention — 37 percent, compared to 63 percent who aren't following it closely. And among those who are paying close attention it's a closer contest between Lieberman and Gephardt — 28 percent to 24 percent, compared to 30 percent to 17 percent among those who aren't paying close attention.

Profiles of Support

The candidates have different profiles of support. Among other notable results, Lieberman receives 27 percent support from blacks, compared to 17 percent for former Sen. Carol Moseley-Braun of Illinois and 12 percent for the Rev. Al Sharpton, both of whom are black. (Gephardt has 13 percent support among blacks.)

Moseley-Braun, the only woman in the race, wins support from 10 percent of women, compared to 2 percent of men. While in the single digits, her position is notable since she's raised the least money of the nine candidates — $72,450 in the first quarter of 2003 — and has done little campaigning. North Carolina's Sen. John Edwards, by contrast, raised the most money, $7.4 million, in the quarter, and has campaigned vigorously, though so far to little apparent effect.

Lieberman leads in most groups, with his support peaking among better-off Democrats. He does about as well with Democratic-leaning independents as with mainline Democrats, a helpful sign for a general election campaign.

Gephardt, by contrast, does better with mainline Democrats than with independents — more helpful in primaries, less so in a general election — while Kerry does better with independents than with mainline Democrats.

Though Gephardt is known for union support, Lieberman is competitive with Gephardt in union households (26 percent support for Lieberman, 23 percent for Gephardt), while in nonunion households Lieberman's lead opens up to 30 percent to 18 percent.

In addition to union households, Gephardt also is more competitive with older Democrats and with conservatives, among whom he has 23 percent support to Lieberman's 20 percent. Only about a fifth of leaned Democrats, though, describe themselves as conservatives.

Gephard runs about even with Lieberman in the Midwest, and is strongest in rural areas but comparatively weak in the cities. Kerry does his best in the East and in the cities, and his worst in the Midwest. He leads Gephardt (but not Lieberman) among top-income Democrats and among liberals.

Methodology

This ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone April 27-30 among a random national sample of 1,105 adults, including an oversample of blacks (for a total of 169). The results have a three-point error margin. Field work was done by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa.

Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found at ABCNEWS.com on the Internet at: http://abcnews.go.com/sections/us/PollVault/PollVault.html.