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debate

John Edwards, the Democratic candidate for vice president, debated current Vice President Dick Cheney on Tuesday night. (ABCNEWS.com)
A Debate Win
Cheney Gains With Help From His Friends

Analysis
By Gary Langer and Dalia Sussman

ABCNEWS.com

Oct. 6, 2004— Dick Cheney prevailed in the vice presidential debate with help from a more Republican audience — and more support from his ticket's side than John Edwards got from his.

Among registered voters who watched the debate, 43 percent said Cheney won, 35 percent called Edwards the winner and 19 percent called it a tie. One factor is that more Republicans tuned in — 38 percent of viewers were Republicans, 31 percent Democrats, the rest independents.


Who Won? (Among Debate Viewers)
Cheney 43%
Edwards 35
Tie 19

But Cheney also did better with his side's backers. Among supporters of the Republican ticket, 80 percent called Cheney the winner. Among supporters of the Kerry/Edwards ticket, fewer, 69 percent, called Edwards the winner, and more called it a tie.


Who Won?
 CheneyEdwardsTie
Bush supporters 80% 4 13
Kerry supporters 6 69 23
As is usually the case, the debate did not immediately change minds among those who watched. Viewers were divided by 51 percent-48 percent for Bush/Cheney and Kerry/Edwards before the debate, and by 50 percent-49 percent after it, an insignificant change. Note, these preferences are among debate viewers only, not among all registered or likely voters.


Vote Preference Among Debate Viewers
 Before the debate After the debate
Bush/Cheney 51% 50
Kerry/Edwards 48 49
Nader/Camejo <.5 0

Looking at it another way, compared with their pre-debate preference, 98 percent of Bush supporters stayed with Bush and 98 percent of Kerry supporters stayed with Kerry.

Party

Who "wins" a debate among viewers depends in part on who tunes in. Political party allegiance of viewers of the first presidential debate between President Bush and Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry was evenly divided — 35 percent were Democrats, 35 percent Republicans, 24 percent independents. This time, more Republicans watched.

It's happened this way before; Republicans tuned in disproportionately to the second presidential debate in 2000 — 40 percent of debate watchers then were Republican, 31 percent Democrat. Viewers that night said Bush won by 16 points.


Party ID of Debate Viewers
 VP Debate First Presidential Debate
Democrats 31% 35
Republicans 38 35
Independents 27 24

Among these groups, 70 percent of Republicans said Cheney was the winner, 68 percent of Democrats said it was Edwards, and independents split 42 percent-37 percent, Cheney-Edwards.

Groups

Men called Cheney the winner by a 12-point margin, women by a narrower five points. Viewers in the East and West were more apt to say Edwards won the debate, while debate watchers in the Midwest and South picked Cheney.

Cheney is now two for two in vice presidential debates, albeit this time around his margin of victory is much smaller. In 2000, debate viewers called him the winner over Joe Lieberman by 19 points.

Methodology

This survey was conducted by telephone Tuesday night among a random-sample panel of 509 registered voters who watched the vice presidential debate. The results have a 4.5-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation were done by TNS of Horsham, Pa.

Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.

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