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The Note
The People Versus the Powerful Pundits
The Freudian Question: What Do Voters Want?

By Mark Halperin, Elizabeth Wilner
& Marc Ambinder

ABCNEWS.com

W A S H I N G T O N, September 25
42 Days Until The Election....

—So then: it looks like the "pocketbook vs. patriotism" theme will be with us all the way through election day.



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The Agenda: Click here for The ABCNEWS Political Unit's exclusive major futures calendar and today's daybook.


Note Archives, updated weekly.

E-mail us: Tips, Compliments, Complaints.

On the one hand, for three days in a row now, we have seen major network news segments balling up the cruddy economic statistics of the Bush era.

Treasury Secretary O'Neill and President Bush might truly believe that the economy is improving, but we think it's safe to say at this point that the national media and the majority of the voters will not share this belief by election day, and that has not always been a foregone conclusion.

As we've said in this very space before, casting this election as a war-versus-economy fight entails a somewhat oversimplified view that Republicans do better on military and national security matters, and Democrats do better on domestic issues such as Social Security and prescription drugs — without taking into account successful GOP efforts to muddy the waters, a la George W. Bush in 2000, on some of those domestic issues.

But what happens if/when congressional Republican CYA efforts to muddy the waters on domestic issues get undermined by a president who might come to be perceived by voters as not caring enough about the economy?

As Dana Milbank reports in the Washington Post this morning, as election day looms, "President Bush is increasing his emphasis on terrorism and national security, shedding his previous determination to demonstrate his concern about the flagging economy." LINK

"When there were marked signs of the economy stumbling in the summer, Bush spoke daily about the economy's health to demonstrate his concern. In recent days, however, the proportion of Bush's stump speech devoted to domestic concerns has slipped from about 50 percent to about 20 percent."

"In July, the White House, in addition to events highlighting homeland security and war, focused on corporate corruption, the economy, welfare reform, trade, disabilities, adoption, prescription drugs and Bush's 'faith-based' plan. In September, Iraq and Saddam Hussein dominate virtually every major appearance by Bush, except for an odd event to spotlight education or the economy."

And what happens when word gets around that President Bush is looking to slow down growth in spending on education and other domestic programs? Mike Allen reminds us in the Post today: "Much of Bush's appeal to non-Republicans, both in his two campaigns for Texas governor and his candidacy for president, lay in his emphasis on improving education." LINK

On the other hand, Democrats in Washington are basically now absorbed in two dynamics: 1) struggling with Iraq, on which they are divided between the "vote yes, vote now" camp, and the "rally around Al Gore and raise questions" camp; and 2) figuring out how to combat — with a united front on this one — alleged White House efforts to ratchet up the war talk for the purposes of electoral gain.

Before Gore's turn at the Commonwealth Club, despite some (mostly quiet) dissent among House and Senate Democrats against quick action in Iraq, leaders Daschle and Gephardt were on a trajectory toward fast-tracking things, and papering over the cracks.

Post Gore/Commonwealth Club, just from looking at the second-day coverage of his speech and its aftermath, the tensions within both Democratic caucuses — mainly over the war, but also over Gore — are spilling out all over the floor into public view, with some Democrats rallying around him, and others sidestepping away.

(It's interesting to Note, however, that with the polite exception of Joe Lieberman and one or two others, no Democrat has really challenged Gore on the record on this issue, so far — in part, of course, because most of them agree with at least 80 percent of what he said.)

So, the question that now seems to be hanging out there is: have Gore's words suddenly loosened up the timing of an Iraq vote and/or the macro level of Democratic support on final passage of the resolution?

The Washington Post 's sources say that negotiation over the language continues, and that things remain on track, but there seems to be some fluidity now, and a nagging sense among some Democrats that Washington is out of touch with many voters on this question.

Marc Sandalow of the San Francisco Chronicle notes that on the key question of war itself, there has been "remarkably little" dissent in Washington. And because of that vacuum, Gore's remarks on Monday were magnified. LINK

The Washington Post 's VandeHei writes, "Dozens of congressional Democrats are frustrated with their leadership for rushing to embrace President Bush's Iraqi war resolution and fostering an impression the party overwhelmingly backs a unilateral strike against Saddam Hussein." LINK

"Some are now looking to former president Jimmy Carter and former vice president Al Gore to help generate significant public opposition to unilateral action in Iraq, which they concede is an uphill and likely unwinnable battle." (Carter and Gore, Gore and Carter: congratulations, Mr. Rove, for getting those names on the front page of the local paper in your adopted hometown, 42 days before the election.)

"The issue is exposing a rift between many rank-and-file Democratic lawmakers concerned about the consequences of war with Iraq and their party leaders — including some presidential hopefuls — eager to back Bush and shift the debate to domestic issues, such as the economy, before the Nov. 5 elections."

"Several Democrats pointedly suggested that Senate Majority Leader Thomas A. Daschle (D-S.D.) and Gephardt are putting politics over policy by rushing to back a unilateral strike against Iraq. Both men are considering a run for president in 2004 and hope to gain Democratic congressional seats this fall. They know their party suffers when Congress, the media and voters are debating war instead of health care reform and other domestic concerns."

The story's kicker plays to the following point: Gore's talk has turned Iraq into the major distraction for Democrats that many were hoping it would not become.

"Gore's speech may complicate Democratic congressional leaders' efforts to settle the Iraq debate quickly in hopes that the election's final weeks will be dominated by economic and domestic issues. 'Most Democrats just want this to go away,' one party strategist said, 'and he didn't just bring it up, he created a whole new debate.'"

David Rogers' story in the Wall Street Journal adds to the notion that Gore's words actually are influencing things in the Senate when he says that Daschle's "job didn't get easier this week when … Al Gore turned up the heat with a high-profile speech sharply critical of Mr. Bush's Iraq policy … Mr. Gore's speech in San Francisco offers others cover to step forward, energizing the party's liberal wing."

On the other hand, the AP's Espo rounds up Democratic distancing from Gore's speech. "Senator Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, Gore's running made in the 2000 election, said Tuesday he did not agree with Gore's assertion that action against Iraq could detract from the overall fight against terrorism." LINK

"Terry McAuliffe, national chairman of the Democratic Party, said through an aide he would have no comment and House Democratic Leader Dick Gephardt offered no immediate response."

"With Gore campaigning for Democrats in New Mexico for two days this week, one congressional candidate in the state, John Arthur Smith, distanced himself from the former vice president's remarks. Smith 'is supporting President Bush. He's the commander in chief … '"

"Some strategists said Gore's remarks could underscore voters' doubts about the national party six weeks before the midterm elections. But others said they doubted the remarks would have much of an impact … "

The Washington Times ' Boyer plays up Lieberman's "sharp" disagreement with Gore, and has this: "Senator Robert G. Torricelli, New Jersey Democrat, who was trailing his Republican opponent badly in the polls, called Mr. Gore's speech 'not relevant. I don't think it has any effect on Democrats' thinking at all,' Mr. Torricelli said." LINK

In his update on how Democrats are seeking to highlight the economy, the AP's Lester notes, "House Democratic leader Dick Gephardt delivered a 30-minute speech Tuesday about economic and domestic problems he said are being neglected while people debate the war and Republicans push for more tax cuts." LINK

But, "As Gephardt spoke about domestic problems that traditionally top voters' concerns, much of the talk in Washington and elsewhere remained about Iraq."

"During the week, Democratic members of Congress plan news conferences to talk about pension reform, unemployment insurance and corporate accountability."

"Next week, they plan events both in Washington and around the country to highlight what has happened to Americans' 401(k) retirement accounts."

Amidst Democrats' struggle to draw the media's attention to the White House's allegedly political machinations on the war comes a coupla papers noting that Vice President Cheney needs a bigger travel budget.

And, it's certainly Notable that all the war and economy talk seems to have obliterated what otherwise surely would be some mention by some news organization somewhere (at least, we didn't spot one) that President Bush tonight will apply his fundraising talents on behalf of the Republican Senate campaign committee, at the National Building Museum.

Politics of Iraq

The Chicago Trib's Zuckman has a very good overview of how and where Iraq has mixed with electoral politics. LINK

The New York Times ' Nagourney finds no shortage of "senior Democratic strategists" (presumably "senior Democratic strategists" who never cared much for Al Gore after, say, 1995 at the latest) who want to go on the record (except, they want to be on background) trashing Gore's speech as a matter of politics. LINK

"Several Democratic strategists said today that Mr. Gore's speech was likely to feed into a Republican strategy of portraying Democrats as antiwar during the final weeks of a close Congressional election. It could also encourage the few Democrats on Capitol Hill who have argued against the war to persevere in a debate that many Democratic Party leaders would like to end as soon as possible so they can clear the floor for a return to domestic issues … "

"[T]here is clearly a split in the party between those who view the debate on Iraq as an important issue, and Democratic strategists, who are arguably more attuned to winning control of Congress than finding the best way of dealing with Saddam Hussein. It is the latter group that seemed particularly distressed at the speech, suggesting that policy considerations aside, it might work against what the Democrats have been trying to accomplish politically."

While Nagourney finds some who are willing to praise Gore for speaking out and saying what he believes, there's also this: "But several Democrats said this could be problematic for a candidate who has constantly been accused of reinventing himself. Republicans today were quick to accuse Mr. Gore of precisely what Democrats have been trying to say about Republicans this week: playing politics with an international crisis."

And with a decision on a presidential run for 2004 due in a matter of months, Nagourney tags: "One of Mr. Gore's advisers said this morning that his decision to make this speech was an attempt to get back in the game and to quell the talk among some Democrats that he would not challenge Mr. Bush again this year. Mr. Gore was back on the stage again today."

There's been a torrent of slightly subterranean speculation that Lieberman would use Gore's comments as an excuse to break The Pledge, but that appears not to be what the Senator from Connecticut has in mind.

"Lieberman's comments Tuesday were diplomatic," writes the Hartford Courant's David Lightman, who reads the Democratic Senator with as much interest (though with greater perception) as Tom reads Jerry. LINK

"'I'm really glad he spoke out,' the senator said. 'He is a natural, national leader, certainly among Democrats, when it comes to questions of national security."

"Lieberman pointed out where the two men agree. 'He spoke about the importance of having any action … taken against Saddam being international, and I agree with that,' he said. But, he added, 'I must say that my own feeling is that even if the United Nations does not authorize military action … if the president decides to initiate action, the United States will not be alone.'"

"When asked if the differing views on Iraq would cause him to rethink his long-held stance that he will not run for president if Gore does, Lieberman said 'No.'"

"He was also asked if he could run with Gore again. 'Look, Al and I remain friends,' Lieberman said. 'We've agreed on most things; we've not agreed on everything.'"

Lieberman on Imus was very supportive of Gore's right to speak out, and complimentary of Gore's experience.

He said the speech in full was more nuanced than the press coverage has suggested, but he "respectfully" disagreed with Gore on the ability of the US military to fight terrorism and Iraq at once.

Imus joked that Karl Rove wrote Gore's speech.

And almost as if he actually IS Tom Daschle, Gore gets gored this cycle by Imus ("shut up … Pastey!"), the Wall Street Journal ed board ("Gore Debates Blair"), and the New York Post ed board ("Al Gore, Wimp"). LINK

Gore is one of the few people who actually read the letters in the New York Times , so it is lovely for him that he gets supportive ones today from Brooklyn and New Hampshire, although there is a critical one from Florida. LINK

Gore foreign policy adviser Leon Fuerth went head-to-head on Good Morning America with Kenneth Adelman on the topic of pre-emptive strikes.

The Wall Street Journal 's David Rogers gets four-fifths of the way there, looking at how Daschle has been trying to herd caucus cats on the Iraq resolution, when the overlaying "principle" of avoiding loss of control of the Senate is (barely) masking the go-slow, give-peace-a-chance sentiment that represents the true feelings of about (the hauntingly exact same percentage of) four-fifths of the Democrats in the Senate.

Daschle still seems less reflexively hawkish than Gephardt on Iraq, but nevertheless seems willing to work with the White House to find mutually acceptable language on a resolution — and also willing to kiss off Gore: Daschle "is reluctant to discuss any details from the White House negotiations but downplays the impact of Mr. Gore's remarks. 'He's expressing what a lot of people think, but he's not in the Senate. You can express your misgivings — I share many of those misgivings — but you have to vote at the end of the day on a resolution.'"

With Wellstone apparently a "no," and Harkin still mostly MIA, it's still not clear how the debate and probable vote will affect the key Senate races, but Democratic Senators, Rogers says, are worried: "The dark mood was captured at the Democrats' weekly caucus lunch. Behind closed doors, Indiana Senator Evan Bayh warned that if the party dragged out the Iraq debate, it could mean 'regime change in the Senate.' Illinois Senator Richard Durbin picked up the same line later: 'Whether it is regime change in Iraq or regime change in the Senate, this is really designed to be dragged out indefinitely, to get it closer to the elections and to obscure every other issue.'"

The Boston Globe has this item: "Governor Howard Dean of Vermont, once again stumping in Iowa to boost his presidential aspirations, charged yesterday that President Bush's saber-rattling against Iraq appears to be based more on politics than the existence of an imminent threat. 'It's beginning to look suspiciously like a diversionary tactic so we don't talk about health care and the economy, which the Republicans aren't in very good shape on,' Dean said." LINK

Legislative Agenda

Rep. Barney Frank and civil rights groups are working on amending the Senate-stalled faith-based bill. LINK

ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary

Joe Lieberman, busy with the homeland security legislation, has the following travel schedule for the next few weeks till Congress heads out: Florida this coming weekend, including a Miami fundraiser for Bill McBride, a Coral Gables fundraiser for Attorney General Bob Butterworth, and a breakfast fundraiser for his PAC, plus campaign events with McBride; Connecticut and New York the following weekend for a bunch of fundraisers for Democratic candidates; Maryland on October 8 for an evening fundraiser for gubernatorial nominee Kathleen Kennedy Townsend; and South Carolina the following weekend.

The rest of his schedule through election day includes trips to New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Indiana and Illinois, Florida again, San Francisco, Arizona and Texas.

While most pundits are focused on when the 2004 wannabes might announce their intention to explore or seek the Democratic nomination in 2004, the real sharpies are watching to see when each man hires someone to do opposition research on himself, to see where the minefields might be and make sure the coast is clear for a run.

Assuming Senator John Kerry decides to run, here's one to save whoever he hires some time: a blurb on the back of Daniel Ellsberg's new memoirs (younger readers: we did the Google for you LINK :

"Daniel Ellsberg demonstrated enormous courage during a difficult and turbulent time in America's history, courage which undoubtedly saved American lives on the battlefield and helped to hold politicians accountable for mistakes they refused to admit. His story reminds us that to fulfill the responsibilities of citizenship is to always ask questions and demand the truth," writes the Bay State's junior Senator.

We would point the already-up-and-running-like-you-wouldn't-believe Rove/Oliver-directed Republican National Committee research operation to this quote, but we suspect (as aggressive as they are) that the full quote, along with the "applicable" Ellsberg facts, have already been scanned in, cross-referenced, and slotted into some ready-to-go press releases.

Tom Daschle's home-state paper notices that the "Daschle As Obstructionist Boogeyman" dynamic is back in play, perhaps as a way to nationalize the elections for part of the GOP base. LINK

The Hotline's Todd celebrates the news of Missouri's new presidential primary date: finally, an early primary state that looks like America.

There is a silly Page Six item on Senators McCain and Kerry. LINK

Boston Mayor Tommy Menino "yesterday announced the charter membership of 'Boston 2004,' the committee that will formally shepherd the bid through the final stages of this fall's selection process — and possibly beyond," says the Boston Globe 's Glen Johnson. "The four co-chairmen are advertising executive Jack Connors, venture capitalist Alan Leventhal, John Hancock community relations official Carol Bolling Fulp, and nursing home executive Alan Solomont. David Passafaro, formerly the mayor's chief of staff, has served as president of the corporation since its inception." LINK

"In addition, Menino said that two former DNC chairmen, Paul Kirk and Steve Grossman, will each have the title of chairman emeritus for the remainder of the process."

"New York has already announced that two fund-raising titans — a former Clinton Treasury secretary, Robert E. Rubin, and Loews hotelier Jonathan M. Tisch — are heading its convention committee, NYC 2004. In addition, Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg, a billionaire, has pledged to personally guarantee the bulk of the city's $75 million convention budget."

A "city official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said staff discussions between the city and the DNC have focused on budget, media workspace, and transportation issues. The city has proposed holding the convention at the FleetCenter and providing facilities for the media on the 80,000-square-foot footprint of the old Boston Garden site. To accommodate an expected overflow of reporters, city officials are negotiating for space at 226 Causeway St., a neighboring building undergoing renovation."

Campaign Finance

Per the Washington Post 's Edsall, the Federal Election Commission tomorrow will continue to consider proposed regulations on soft money which "would, in the case of presidential contests, create a virtual blackout on national radio and television soft-money ads mentioning presidential candidates from roughly early December 2003, or 30 days before the Iowa caucuses, to the last primary, which is likely to be held in June. Local soft-money ads could be run as long as they do not reach 50,000 or more subscribers in a state within the 30-day pre-primary period." LINK

Election Watchdog

We want to remind our readers across the country, be they voters, party operatives, interest group associates, campaign workers, candidates, or political junkies, about our ABC 2002 Watchdog project.

As we've said before, so much political communication goes on under the radar, and this ground war can cause micro or macro shifts of campaign dynamics.

We've already gotten several tips. Click here to see how you can take part.

And one reminder: if you get phone calls, assert yourself. Ask the person everything you'd want to know. Who are you? What is your purpose? Are you affiliated with a candidate? A party? An interest group? Who's paying you? And use caller ID!!! Now — three readers have written in to tell us about what appear to be a rash of push polls promoting GOP Gov. Jeb Bush's re-election bid in Florida. Before we give details, we want to make it clear that both Bush's campaign and the state Republican party deny knowledge or involvement.

The Bush/Brogan campaign says it's only making calls urging folks to vote absentee, since ballots already are being mailed out upon request in Florida.

Two of the three Note-reading Floridians who received calls urging support for Bush live in Miami. One lives in Leon County, in the Panhandle. One of the Miami calls was live; the other was a series of recorded statements. The Leon County call was live, too.

The residents who spoke to live folks were told they'd get asked about Florida politics. So far, so good.

But these push-pollers began by asking about the Bush/Brogan record as a series of "yes or no" statements, wondering whether they knew about a specific Bush/Brogan accomplishment or would favorably consider a candidate who had the record touted by the Bush/Brogan ticket.

Next, Democratic nominee Bill McBride's work as an attorney came up for discussion, and unspecified allegations were hurled at his character.

The taped call followed a similar format; according to one reader who says he is a registered Republican; the voice on the call told him that, "Bill McBride is a big-business lawyer who cost hundreds of jobs at his own law firm," and then asked him whether he'd vote for McBride after hearing that statement.

All three calls ended, according to our readers, with a plea to vote for Bush and Brogan. (Not Bush alone, but Bush and Brogan.)

Floridians: if you've gotten similar calls, let us know! And if you are reading this and you know who made these calls, let us know.

Politics

Some Democratic House leaders are ticked off over Majority Leader Dick Armey's comments at a Florida fundraiser for House candidate Katherine Harris last week: "'I always see two Jewish communities in America,' Armey told the audience of Harris supporters last week. 'One of deep intellect and one of shallow, superficial intellect.' Armey's remarks came in response to a question from a self-identified Democrat about growing support for the GOP from Jewish voters, who traditionally have aligned with Democrats." LINK

Republican National Committee chairman Marc Racicot will be in California today, with a 1:30 p.m. ET speech at the Nixon Library in Yorba Linda and an Hispanic Team Leader event in San Diego.

The Sierra Club's new "voter education" spots are mighty pretty to look at. Voters in Missouri, Minnesota, Iowa, South Dakota, Georgia, Colorado and New Hampshire probably will see them, though we're not totally sure, because the club refused to divulge the length or size of its buy.

Allegedly bad enviro actors: Georgia Senate nominee Saxby Chambliss, New Hampshire Senate nominee John Sununu, Iowa Rep. Tom Latham, Colorado Senator Wayne Allard, South Dakota Senate nominee John Thune, and Missouri Senate nominee Jim Talent

Allegedly good enviro actors: Minnesota Senator Paul Wellstone, South Dakota Senator Tim Johnson

As usual, each spot focuses on one candidate in the race and encourages voters to contact that candidate to express their praise or disapproval for his or her environmental voting record.

The Sierra Club's political director, the able Margaret Conway, took care to avoid the impression that the ads constitute an in-kind gift to the Democratic Congressional and Senatorial Campaign Committees. (Conway noted the group's official non-partisan status, its earlier kind words for Maine Senator Susan Collins (R), and that its local chapters influence the national organization's activities.)

Environmental politics are certainly influential in a couple of states this year, most notably in Colorado and South Dakota, with some activity generated in Missouri, New Hampshire and Iowa, as well.

The woman who does the world's best imitation (by a woman, at least) of legendary New York Times' political scribe (and food maven) Johnny "R.W." Apple, Anna Deavere Smith, dominates primetime tonight, simultaneously reprising her role as the national security adviser on "The West Wing," and playing your usual a headstrong, in-your-face cardiologist on the new "Presidio Med," both, as the saying goes, on another network. LINK

Pat Buchanan's new effort to fight for the right, American Conservative magazine, launches today. LINK

The United Seniors Association and Art Linkletter will hold a press conference today to criticize Senate Majority Leader Daschle and Democrats on prescription drug reform, at 10:00 am at the US Capitol.

New York

Al Gore and daughter Karenna will headline a fundraiser for Carl McCall on Thursday night at the Sheraton New York.

Florida

Back in the spring, a group affiliated with the Florida Education Association ran ads promoting the gubernatorial candidacy of Democrat Bill McBride.

We say "affiliated" because the group officially was incorporated separately, allowing them to run "issue advocacy" ads under the law. (They won't have to disclose their donors until next month.)

But Republicans immediately complained to the Florida Election Commission because the ads rather clearly endorsed McBride as a specific candidate. That probe is heating up, and the McBride team (and the group) have gone to court to block it, saying the investigation threatens to squelch their free-speech rights.

The Miami Herald has a good round up. LINK

Meanwhile, the Orlando Sentinel has a neat look at Gov. Jeb Bush's campaign contributors. LINK

Seems like a good clip 'n' save for Florida Democratic Party research shaman Tait Sye.

Massachusetts

Seems like both major-party gubernatorial nominees got their fair share of shots in at last night's debate. LINK

Nevada

Republican Gov. Kenny Guinn's choice to leave the state to have his prostate surgery at UCLA has become a campaign issue, as his longshot Democratic opponent charges that Guinn doesn't have faith in Nevada's health care system. LINK

North Carolina

We don't know whether North Carolina has more sports bars per capita than any other state, but their Senate race has more sports star endorsements than any other.

"Dean Smith and Mike Krzyzewski are going up against each other one more time, but this time it is it the U.S. Senate race and not the basketball court. Krzyzewski, the Duke basketball coach, and his wife, Mickie, will co-chair a 'Blue Devils for Dole' fund-raiser tonight in Durham for Republican Senate candidate Elizabeth Dole," whereas Smith and most of Chapel Hill are backing Democratic nominee Erskine Bowles. LINK

Junior Johnson, the race-car driver who was pardoned by Ronald Reagan for helping out with his father's moonshining business, has cut an ad in support of Bowles: "'I'm not going to let them run Erskine Bowles into the wall,' Johnson says in the ad. 'They're going after Erskine because he worked for Bill Clinton? Get off my bumper. Sure, Erskine worked in the White House. He served our country. But Erskine's his own man. And he's got North Carolina values. So cut out those attack ads 'cause you folks are headed in the wrong direction.'" LINK

David Bossie takes on Bowles in a Washington Times op-ed. LINK

South Carolina

Bubba has returned. The character first popularized in Kevin Geddings' ads for then-gubernatorial candidate Jim Hodges (D) in 1998 is back on the airwaves. "This time around, Bubba is the host of 'Bubba Jeopardy,' a game show in which the correct question to every Jeopardy answer in this version is 'Mark Sanford,'" the GOP gubernatorial nominee. "The categories are 'Super-rich, out-of-touch politicians,' 'Wrong kind of change for South Carolina,' and 'hypocrite politicians.'" Sanford and Gov. Jim Hodges signed a clean campaign pledge not too long ago … LINK

Arizona

The Arizona Republic's reporter seems to have enjoyed last night's gubernatorial debate. LINK

Rep. Matt Salmon (R), Janet Napolitano (D), and two third-party candidates participated. "Salmon called Napolitano a big-government liberal whose budget-balancing plans include tax hikes that will cripple Arizona's economy. Napolitano consistently knocked Salmon for being part of a decade of "failed Republican leadership" that has put Arizona deep in debt. After the debate, Napolitano said Arizona's years of income tax cuts, some of which Salmon helped pass as a state senator, weren't "economically smart."

Colorado

Gubernatorial nominee Rollie Heath (D) "surprised" just about everyone with his extended attacks on GOP Gov. Bill Owens and Colorado's financial picture during their debate last night. LINK

California

GOP gubernatorial nominee Bill Simon has the Davis fundraising issue between his teeth and will not let go. LINK

Minnesota

Did you hear the one about the four Minnesota gubernatorial candidates who went to a synagogue? Neither did we — but they will, tonight — for their first debate. LINK

New Jersey

Lieberman on Imus defended Torricelli as "a very good Senator and a very able guy."

Pennsylvania

The Philadelphia Firefighters Union (IAFF Local 22) didn't get along with Ed Rendell (D) when he was mayor of their city, and so now they've endorsed his Republican opponent, Mike Fisher, for governor.

Missouri

"Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, whose star power has turned her into a fund-raising powerhouse, will tap Hollywood next month to aid her colleague Senator Jean Carnahan of Missouri," the Kansas City Star reports. LINK

Texas

The Ron Kirk for Senate campaign doubtless is cheered by this Houston Chronicle lead: "Senate rivals Ron Kirk and John Cornyn traded punches over Enron and out-of-state fund raising Tuesday, eclipsing Cornyn's attempt to campaign against terrorism." Some Kirk staffers apparently disrupted a Cornyn news conference yesterday while Kirk himself was … in Los Angeles. LINK

New Hampshire

The Sierra Club's political folks said yesterday that environmental issues are playing in New Hampshire like never before. LINK

Gov. Jeanne Shaheen, the Democratic nominee for Senate, appears to want to make it a key point of distinction between her and Rep. John Sununu (R). LINK

Iowa

Senator Tom Harkin (D) apologized for his campaign's having passed around the transcript of a Rep. Greg Ganske donor meeting, and the Des Moines Register covers it under a powerful triple byline of Norman, Beaumont, and Roos. LINK

The Register truth-squads an anti-Ganske ad. LINK

South Dakota

Gov. Bill Janklow (R) called yesterday for a new Missouri River Act of 2002 to resolve long-standing conflicts about water management within South Dakota and its neighbors. Senator Daschle, who has been at odds with the administration and with several states, endorsed the idea. LINK

Bush Administration Strategy/Personality

USA Today 's McQuillan reports, "Vice President Cheney, whose travel this year has been mainly trips to 'secure undisclosed locations' and GOP fundraisers, has exceeded his travel budget and is asking Congress to approve shifting $100,000 from other White House accounts to cover the tab." LINK

"Most of the vice president's travel since January has involved fundraising events for Republican candidates. The party or candidate pays part of the cost of political trips, but travel by the vice president involves staff, security and other trappings covered by the taxpayer. Today, Cheney is in Memphis to attend a luncheon for GOP Senate candidate Lamar Alexander and in Dallas for a dinner for congressional candidate Jeb Hensarling."

Kit Seelye's New York Times ' "Campaign Season" notebook leads off with Cheney's office moving money from its personnel account to pay for more VPOTUS travel. LINK

The item is good as far as it goes (including an awfully cheeky quote from David Sirota of the House Democrats' appropriations team), but it leaves out the question of how much of Cheney's travel spending has gone toward the "official" part of campaign trips, of which the Veep has made many, many.

And Dana Milbank's Post story actually has this note: "Senate Majority Whip Harry Reid (D-Nev.) plans to call on the White House to detail how much taxpayer money is being spent to underwrite his campaign travel."

Kit's Seelye's column also previews the Nancy and Alexandra Pelosi screening of "Journey's with George" at the Library of Congress on September 30 (The Note doesn't recall being invited), and looks at Senator John McCain's book parties through a prism that will make Bushes who don't like him grit their big ol' teeth.

Dean Broder writes today that Bush "is quietly rewriting the classic definition of conservatism." "Consider economics. The centerpiece of Bush's policy is his belief in the efficacy of tax cuts under any and all circumstances … What is different is Bush's insistence that tax cutting should continue, even with the return of budget deficits and even with the prospect of staggering, long-term additional spending on the military, homeland defense and the war on terrorism." LINK

"Consider education … Consider social programs … Consider retirement security … And now Bush has put before the world, first in his West Point speech and last week in a formal state paper, a fundamental revision of American foreign and national security policy."

"You may think any one of these changes is wise or foolish. What is remarkable is that all of them have come in so short a time from the hand of a man whose campaign seemed so bland and whose election was so narrow."

USA Today 's Susan Page does day-in-the-life with Lynne Cheney. LINK

In the story, we meet press secretary Natalie Rule playing lighting director; find out (nice job, Susan) that a fundraiser she tags along to "is the fifth political fundraiser she has done on her own this year; seven more are scheduled;" and see quite clearly our central theme: "[A]t 61, after a lifetime of courting controversy, the outspoken author and commentator has moderated her voice since the inauguration in January 2001. It's as though her husband's position has given her a bigger stage but limited her lines."

The all-Democrat Congressional Hispanic Caucus today will announce its opposition to Bush judicial nominee Miguel Estrada at 11:00 am. The Washington Post 's Walsh has the details. LINK

The Agenda

— 9:30 am, Senate meets to consider homeland security legislation
— 9:45 am, White House off-camera morning gaggle
— 10:00 am, House meets to vote on continuing resolution through October 4
— 10:00 am, House Minority Leader Gephardt, AFL-CIO president John Sweeney, and others call for pension reform
— 11:00 am, Senate Minority Leader Lott briefs
— 11:00 am, Congressional Hispanic Caucus announces its opposition to Bush judicial nominee Miguel Estrada
—11:25 am, President Bush meets with the President of Colombia
—11:30 am, Senate Majority Leader Daschle briefs
— 1:30 pm, Attorney General Ashcroft addresses Hispanic heritage event, Justice Department
— 2:30 pm, Treasury Secretary O'Neill delivers keynote address at minority business summit, Omni Shoreham Hotel, DC
—3:15 pm, White House on-camera briefing
— 6:30 pm, President Bush headlines National Republican Senatorial Committee fundraising dinner, National Building Museum

Major Futures

Newly listed events are italicized.

— Sept. 25: Sen. John F. Kerry appears at Christian Science Monitor breakfast
— Sept. 25: President Bush fundraises for National Republican Senatorial Committee, DC
— Sept. 25-26: Council for Affordable Health Insurance's (CAHI) 10th Anniversary Legislative Conference, DC — Sept. 26: New home sales figures for August due
— Sept. 26: NAACP post-primary gubernatorial debate in Maryland
— Sept. 26: Vice President Cheney campaigns for Lamar Alexander
— Sept. 26: President Bush attends fundraiser for TX Senate candidate John Cornyn
— Sept. 27: Former Vice President Al Gore attends fundraiser for Carl McCall.
— Sept. 27: Florida gubernatorial candidates debate
— Sept. 27: Final 2nd Quarter GDP figure due
— Sept. 27: Candidates for IL-19 debate, Mt. Vernon
— Sept. 27-29: California Republican Party convention
— Sept. 27-29: National Coalition Against Legalized Gambling convention, Dallas
— Sept. 28: Richland, County South Carolina "Dem Fest" with Sens. Kerry and Edwards in attendence
— Sept. 28: Vermont Sen. Jim Jeffords (I) campaigns for Mary Landreiu, Louisiana
— Sept. 27-30: Sen. Joseph Lieberman visits Florida
— Sept. 29: DCCC mega-fundraiser, hosted by Rep. Dick Gephardt and featuring Barbra Streisand, Los Angeles
— Sept. 29: Rudy Giuliani fundraises for gubernatorial candidate Jim Ryan (R), Illinois
— Sept. 29: Vermont Gov. Howard Dean campaigns in Texas for Democratic candidates
— Sept. 30: Discovery ends in McCain-Feingold lawsuit (tentative).
— Sept. 30: Tennessee Senate candidates debate
— Sept. 30: 401(k) statements begin to roll out.
— Sept. 30: Third quarter campaign finance period closes
— Sept. 30: Statement from Vice President Cheney is due to judge in Judicial Watch/Halliburton lawsuit, Houston
— Oct. 1: Fundraiser for Erskine Bowles in DC; discounted tickets for former Clinton administration officials
— Oct. 1: Federal pre-general campaign finance period begins
— Oct. 2: Sen. Patty Murray (D) and Sen. Bill Frist at National Press Club luncheon
— Oct. 3: Gov. Howard Dean address Empire State Pride annual dinner, NYC
— Oct. 4: Al Sharpton's birthday
— Oct. 4: President Bush in Massachusetts
— Oct. 4: Former Vice President Al Gore in Massachusetts
— Oct. 4: Employment data from September due
— Oct. 5: Tri-state's Largest Chili Cook-Off, Dubuque, Iowa
— Oct. 5: Sen. Chris Dodd keynotes Ohio Democratic Party dinner
— Oct. 5: President Bush travels to New Hampshire
— Oct. 5: Iowa Democratic Party Jefferson/Jackson dinner, keynoted by Gov. Howard Dean, Sen. John Edwards, and Sen. John Kerry.
— Oct. 5: Colorado Senate candidates to debate
— Oct. 6: Sen. Joseph Lieberman campaigns for Conn. Gov. candidate Bill Curry, NY Gov. candidate H. Carl McCall, and several Congressional candidates, Connecticut and New York
— Oct. 6: South Carolina Senate candidates debate, Charleston
—Oct; 6: 30 day residency requirement deadline for voters in many states
— Oct. 7: Michigan gubernatorial candidates debate
— Oct. 7: Illinois gubernatorial candidates debate
#151; Oct. 7: South Dakota Senate candidates debate
— Oct. 7: California gubernatorial candidates debate
— Oct. 8: President Bush headlines fundraiser for gubernatorial candidate Rep. Van Hilleary, TN
Oct. 8: Sen. Joseph Lieberman attends fundraiser for Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, MD
#151; Oct. 9: Democratic National Committee hosts Get-Out-The-Vote concert, with musicians and the Clintons in attendence, DC
— Oct. 9: Texas gubernatorial candidates debate
— Oct. 11: Retail sales figure for September due
— Oct. 11: Congress target date for adjournment.
—Oct. 11-12: Christian Coalition's "God Bless America—One Nation Under God Road to Victory 2002" conference, DC
— Oct. 12: Sen. John McCain hosts Saturday Night Live, New York
— Oct. 13: Iowa State Hand-Cornhusking contest, Kimballton, Iowa
— Oct. 13: Tennessee Senate candidates debate
— Oct. 13: Illinois Senate candidates debate
— Oct. 14: Oregon gubernatorial candidate debate (tentative)
— (tentative) Oct. 14: Arkansas Senate candidates to debate
— Oct. 14-15: Sen. Joseph Lieberman visits New Hampshire
— Oct. 15: Michigan gubernatorial candidates debate
— Oct: 15: Minnesota Senate candidate debate, Moorehead
— Oct. 15-17: Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn) travels to Iowa
— Oct. 16: Federal pre-general campaign finance period ends
— Oct. 17: Minnesota Senate candidate debate, Rochester
— Oct. 17: Rep. Tom Davis (R) and Rep. Nita Lowey (D) at National Press Club
— Oct. 18: New Mexico gubernatorial candidates debate
— Oct. 18: Consumer Price Index figure for September due
— Oct. 18: South Carolina Senate candidates debate, Clemson
— Oct. 18: New Hampshire Democratic Party Jefferson-Jackson Dinner, with Sen. John Edwards as host
— Oct. 20: Sen. Joseph Lieberman visits Florida
— Oct. 20: South Carolina Senate candidates debate
— Oct. 20: Alabama gubernatorial candidates debate
— Oct. 20: Tennessee Senate candidates debate
— Oct. 21: Index of leading economic indicators for September figure due
— Oct. 21: South Dakota Senate candidates debate
— Oct. 21: Minnesota Senate candidates debate, St. Cloud
— Oct. 22: Florida gubernatorial candidates debate
— Oct. 23-24: FEC holds rule-making hearings on coordinated and independent expenditures
— Oct. 24: (tentative) Texas gubernatorial candidates debate
— Oct. 24: Pre-general campaign finance report due to FEC
— Oct. 24: Pennsylvania gubernatorial candidates debate
— Oct. 24: (tentative) Texas Senate candidates debate
— Oct. 24: (tentative) Missouri Senate candidates debate
— Oct. 24-25: Sen. Joseph Lieberman visits Texas to campaign for Democratic candidates
— Oct. 25: League of Conservation Voters
— Oct. 25: Durable goods orders, new home sales and existing home sales figures due
— Oct. 25: South Carolina Senate candidates debate, Columbia
— Oct. 26: New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton's birthday
— Oct. 26: Karl Rove headlines 2nd Annual Ronald Reagan dinner, Des Moines, Iowa
— Oct. 28: Minnesota Senate candidates debate
— Oct. 30: (tenative) South Dakota Senate candidates debate
— Oct. 30: SpeakUp! Youth Forum with New York gubernatorial candidates
—Oct. 31: Early voting begins in Oklahoma
— Oct. 31: Estimate of Third Quarter GDP is released
— Nov. 1: Data for September employment, personal income and personal spending due
— Nov. 3: New Mexico gubernatorial candidates debate
— Nov. 4: Laura Bush's birthday
— Nov. 4: Deadline for opening briefs, McCain-Feingold lawsuit (tentative).
— Nov. 5: Election Day
— Nov. 6: New FEC disclosure and soft money rules go into effect
— Nov. 8-9: Association of American Trial Lawyers Board of Governors meeting, Washington, D.C.
— Nov 10-15: National Congress of American Indians annual meeting, San Diego
— Nov. 17: Vermont Governor Howard Dean's birthday.
— Nov. 18: Deadline for opposition briefs, McCain-Feingold lawsuit (tentative).
— Nov. 18: Moussaoui trial: jury questionnaire distributed
— Nov. 20: Delaware Senator. Joseph Biden's birthday
— Nov. 21-23: Republican Governors Association annual meeting, Dana Point, California
— Dec. 4: Oral arguments begun in McCain-Feingold lawsuit. (tentative)
— Dec. 5: Strom Thurmond's 100th birthday
— Dec. 5: Post-general election campaign finance reports due.
— Dec. 9: South Dakota Senator Tom Daschle's birthday
— Dec. 9: Moussaoui trial voir dire: jury voir dire
— Dec. 11: Massachusetts Senator John Kerry's birthday
— Dec. 13: Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack's birthday
— Dec. 26: California Governor. Gray Davis's birthday
— Jan, 1 2003: New federal individual contribution limits take effect (tentative)
— Jan 6, 2003: Opening arguments (tenative) for Moussaoui trial
— Jan. 30, 2003: Vice President Dick Cheney's birthday
— Jan 30-Feb. 1, 2003: Conservative Political Action Conference, Crystal City, Virginia — Jan. 31, 2003: Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt's birthday
— Jan. 31, 2003: Year end campaign finance reports due to FEC
— Feb. 24, 2003: Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman's birthday
— March 11, 2003: Georgia Governor Roy Barnes's birthday
— March 31, 2003: Al Gore's birthday
— May 19, 2003: Al and Tipper Gore's 33rd wedding anniversary
— June 15, 2003: Senate/House/key adviser personal financial disclosure forms due
— July 6: President Bush's birthday
— July 28: Bill Bradley's birthday.
— Aug. 14: Lynne Cheney's birthday
— Aug. 19: Bill Clinton's birthday
— Aug 19: Tipper Gore's birthday

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