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The public by 2-1 supports Bush's view that the United States should be able to attack Iraq before it, or terrorists it supports, strike this country.
But there's no consensus on urgency: Americans divide on whether the United States should still seek a diplomatic solution, or give up on diplomacy and move toward a military strike.
This result reflects the same conditional support for striking Iraq that has marked public opinion for months. The sense of threat is great enough that most Americans support acting militarily to remove Saddam Hussein from power, but not great enough to sustain broad support for acting unilaterally, quickly, or in a costly ground war.
As with other recent polling on Iraq, there are strong partisan differences in this ABCNEWS poll. Nearly two-thirds of Republicans say "diplomacy doesn't work with Iraq" and the time for action is near. This falls to 48 percent of independents, and falls further among Democrats, to 40 percent.
Diplomacy or Military Action?
Statement
All
Republicans
Democrats
Diplomacy doesn't work; time for military action is near
50%
65%
40%
Hold off on military action; continue to seek diplomatic solution
44
32
56
Sampling, data collection and tabulation
for this poll were done by TNS Intersearch.
Similarly, 74 percent of Republicans support the principle of a U.S. first strike against Iraq, compared to 57 percent of Democrats and independents. Pre-emptive action also wins more support among men (69 percent) than among women (55 percent).
ISSUE — Whatever the compunctions, Bush has impressed a substantial number of Americans with the importance of this issue.
A year after the war on terrorism began, 46 percent (again, especially Republicans) say that removing Saddam and disarming Iraq is more important than tracking down and capturing members of al Qaeda. Fewer, 30 percent, give higher priority to chasing down al Qaeda members.
Saddam or Al Qaeda?
What's more important?
All
Republicans
Democrats
Removing Saddam, disarming Iraq
46%
58%
41%
Tracking down, capturing al Qaeda
30
20
35
WHO'S WINNING? — More broadly, a year to the day after the United States opened its war on terrorism by attacking the Taliban and Al Qaeda in Afghanistan, Americans give a somewhat mixed report on the status of the effort.
Most striking is that fewer than half, 47 percent, say the United States is winning the war on terrorism. Far fewer, 24 percent, say the United States is losing, but a substantial 21 percent volunteer that it's a draw.
Partisanship again is strong here; nearly two-thirds of Republicans say the country is winning the war on terrorism, while just about four in 10 Democrats and independents agree. And men are 18 points more apt than women to say the United States is winning.
Specifically in terms of Afghanistan, seven in 10 Americans call the year-old U.S. campaign there a success, but most call it a partial rather than a complete success. And the public divides about evenly on whether the United States is doing enough, or should do more, to track down al Qaeda members and Taliban leaders.
OSAMA — One disappointment is the apparent failure to capture or kill Osama bin Laden. Seven in 10 Americans think he's still alive, and this informs views of the broader war: Among people who think bin Laden is dead, 61 percent say the United States is winning the war on terrorism. But among those who think he's alive, fewer — 44 percent — think the United States is winning.
TWO FRONTS — A narrow majority, 53 percent, thinks the United States can handle the current war on terrorism, and dealing with Iraq, at the same time. People who favor quick action against Iraq are especially likely to say so, as are Republicans, men, and those who think the United States is winning the war on terrorism.
Among those who think the United States can't handle both simultaneously, the current war on terrorism gets a 2-1 priority over attacking Iraq. That's because people who hold this view are more apt to be those who favor attempting diplomacy with Iraq first.
REBUILDING — Finally there's the question of helping to rebuild Afghanistan. In this area just a quarter of Americans say the United States should be doing more, while a modest majority says it's doing enough now.
GROUPS — As noted, in addition to the partisan differences, there are very substantial differences between the sexes on some of these issues.
Compared to women, men are 18 points more likely to say the United States is winning the war on terrorism; 17 points more likely to call the campaign in Afghanistan a success; 22 points more likely to think the United States can handle Iraq and terrorism at once; 14 points more likely to say the United States should be able to strike Iraq first; and 10 points more likely to say diplomacy with Iraq doesn't work.
METHODOLOGY — This ABCNEWS poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 2-6 among a random national sample of 1,029 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa.
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