W A S H I N G T O N, July 18
— For President Bush and his party alike, the more the subject is the war on terrorism, the better for them politically. And the more it shifts to some of the nation's social ills, the better the chances for their Democratic opponents.
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There are caveats, though, and two important ones are education and the economy. Both are compelling, non-war issues in which Bush and his party are hanging tough — making the Democrats' job more difficult in the upcoming midterm elections.
For now this ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll finds the same sharp division of political preference that marked the last presidential election and the last three congressional elections. Forty-seven percent of registered voters currently favor the Democrat in their congressional district, 46 percent the Republican — a dead heat déjà vu.
Bush's response to terrorism is the root of his broader popularity. He soared from 55 percent job approval two days before Sept. 11 to 86 percent two days after it, and hasn't been below his current 72 percent approval since — the longest, highest run of presidential job approval since modern polling began in the late 1930s.
Bush's approval rating includes 53 percent of Democrats and 51 percent of liberals — and, more important in the crucial battle for the center in American politics, 68 percent of independents and 71 percent of moderates.
Specifically for his anti-terrorism work, Bush soars to 83 percent approval. But tellingly, his ratings on every other specific issue tested in this poll — from the economy to health care to corporate fraud — are below his overall job rating, and in many cases far below it.
All these ratings may be influenced to some extent by the halo effect of Bush's broader war-based approval. It is remarkable, for example, for him to have held majority approval on the economy during a recession. And his approval rating on Social Security is 13 points better than it was pre-Sept. 11.
There's also been a 10-point drop in the last year in the number of Americans who think Bush favors corporate interests over working people, though it's a still-high 50 percent. More, although just 53 percent, say Bush is "concentrating on things that are important to you." And 57 percent now say Bush "understands the problems of people like you," up from 45 percent a year ago, pre-Sept. 11. Seventy-five percent also call Bush a strong leader, up from 55 percent a year ago.
Moreover, Bush leads the Democrats, 53 percent to 37 percent, in public trust to handle "the main problems the nation faces over the next few years." But that is down from a 62 percent to 31 percent Bush advantage when ABC and the Post asked this same question six months ago.
Bush is not the only beneficiary of the public's wartime mood, in which external threats can increase appreciation for domestic stability. Fifty-seven percent of Americans approve of the way Congress is doing its job; it's been at that level steadily after jumping by more than a dozen points after Sept. 11.
And 68 percent approve of the job their own representative in Congress is doing, music to the ears of incumbents (who are generally in little or no danger anyway). In October 1994, by contrast, this rating was nearly 20 points lower, and the Republicans took control.
Bush is not in this election, but the Republican Party more broadly enjoys the same chief strength — public trust to handle the war on terrorism. It's one of the most-cited issues of importance in the November congressional elections, called "very important" by 73 percent — and the Republicans have a huge 28-point lead over the Democrats in public trust to handle it. (The Republicans lead by 16 points in trust to handle the related issue of "defense and the military budget.")
The Democrats come back with an identical 28-point lead over the Republicans in trust to handle environmental issues, long a Democratic mainstay. Their problem: Just 57 percent call the environment "very important" in their vote choice, ranking it in the lower tier of election issues.
The top two issues called "very important" in vote choices are the economy and education. In the former, the Republicans hold a 10-point advantage; in the latter, trust divides evenly. Neutralizing the traditional Democratic advantage on education was arguably the central element in Bush's election. Maintaining that competitiveness on education appears critical to him and to his party alike.
But there are points of vulnerability for the Republicans as well. They trail the Democrats by 10 points in trust to handle health care, another top-ranked issue; by a closer six points on Social Security; by a sizable 18 points on prescription drug benefits; and by 10 points on corporate fraud.
Health care looks especially important for the Democrats. It's the No. 1 election issue among people who favor the Democrat in their congressional district. (Among people who favor the Republican, the most-cited issue is the war on terrorism.)
Corporate fraud may carry particular pitfalls for the Republicans, since they're seen by a 2-1 margin as more interested in serving the interests of large corporations than ordinary working people. The Democrats, by contrast, are seen by a 12-point edge as favoring workers over corporations.
Given that split, though, the Democrats by all rights should have more than a 10-point edge in trust to handle corporate fraud, suggesting that the aggressive stance Republicans have taken against the recent scandals are helping to compensate for their disadvantage on the subject.
So it is with Bush, as well. He's seen by a 13-point margin as favoring corporations over workers. Yet that's down from a 32-point margin last year. And despite this disadvantage, Bush himself runs evenly with the Democrats in trust to handle the corporate scandals.
The scandals may even work to Bush's advantage, by giving him an avenue to distance himself from his perceived pro-corporate bias. And the Harken issue hasn't dented his rating as honest and trustworthy, at an enviable 71 percent (compare to Bill Clinton). But Bush does have low approval for his work on the corporate scandals — 49 percent — so there's also vulnerability there.
(See separate July 16 ABCNEWS polling analysis on the
corporate scandals.)
The stock market, for its part, has engendered discomfort but not despair, partly because investors disproportionately are higher-income individuals, better positioned to weather its downturns. Regulating Wall Street is last on the issues of concern in the November election, and people divide fairly evenly on which party they trust to handle it (the Democrats, 43 percent; the Republicans, 39 percent). (See 7/17 ABCNEWS analysis on views of the stock market.)
The corporate scandals, their effect on the stock market and their effect in turn on the economy should make ripe fodder for the opposition party. But that doesn't, at least at the moment, appear to be playing out.
For example, there's been a 13-point drop since last summer in the number of Americans who feel they've saved enough for retirement—68 percent then, 55 percent now. But Bush and his party seem to be escaping much of the blame: Asked which party they trust more to protect their non-Social Security retirement savings, the public divides evenly — 41 percent for the Republicans, 40 percent for the Democrats. And when it's Bush vs the Democrats on this issue, Bush has a nine-point advantage, 44 percent to 35 percent.
As noted, moreover, the Republicans have a 10-point edge in trust to handle the economy, and Bush has 58 percent approval on the economy. That's even though as many Americans say they've gotten worse off as better off financially in the last two years, 27 percent apiece. Just before the 1998 midterm elections, by contrast, 40 percent felt better off, just 12 percent worse.
In an even more dramatic shift, in an ABCNEWS/Money magazine poll shortly before the 2000 election, 75 percent of Americans said the economy was in good shape. Today, in this poll, just 39 percent say so. (That's a tad better, though, than it was last fall and winter.)
A worsening economy still has the potential to aid the Democrats. Today 34 percent of employed Americans say it's gotten harder to get a promotion or a better job in the last year; that group favors Democrats over Republicans for Congress by 56 percent to 37 percent. And 36 percent say the economy is "getting worse"; that group favors the Democrats by 61 percent to 32 percent.
But the economy and jobs situation are far better than they were in the last recession, when Bill Clinton harvested public economic discontent to defeat Bush's father. Today 34 percent say it's gotten tougher to get a better job; in December 1991, it was 57 percent. Today 61 percent say the economy's in bad shape; in December 1991 this peaked at 93 percent. And today 36 percent think the economy is getting worse; in December 1991 it was 66 percent.
Another angle of attack for the Democrats is ideological; Americans by 53 percent to 32 percent say the Democratic Party is more open than the Republican Party to the ideas of people who are moderates; moderates themselves say so by 58 percent to 29 percent — significant because they account for four in 10 adults. (About two in 10 are liberals, 35 percent conservatives.)
A Republican comeback is in the issue of bigger vs. smaller government: Americans by 53 percent to 42 percent say they favor "smaller government with fewer services" over "larger government with more services." It's a central factor in vote choices; those who prefer smaller government favor Republican House candidates by 23 points, 58 percent to35 percent; those who prefer larger government favor Democratic candidates even more widely, by 32 points, 63 percent to 31 percent.
This philosophical difference is also a factor in the political gender gap. Men prefer smaller government by 61 percent to 36 percent, while women divide about evenly on the question.
Respondents in this poll split on whether it's better to have a Congress controlled by the president's party or by the opposition party. Also, 48 percent say it would be worse for the country than the current division if the Democrats took control of both the House and Senate (it's mainly Republicans who say so); and 51 percent say it would be worse if the Republicans won both houses (it's mainly Democrats who say that).
In reality, though, people don't vote for divided government. The vast majority vote for presidential, House and Senate candidates of the same party. In 2000, for example, about 85 percent of Gore voters also voted for Democrats for House and Senate (where there were Senate races); and about 85 percent of Bush voters also voted for Republicans for House and Senate.
Finally there are local issues; 66 percent say these are "very important" in their election choice. What are they? In an open-ended question among people who cited local issues as very important, 22 percent cited environmental or economic development issues; 20 percent, education; with others mentioning the economy, crime and safety, taxes, health care and others. A list follows (up to two answers were accepted).
This ABCNEWS Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone July 11-15, among a random national sample of 1,512 adults. The results have a 2.5-point error margin. Fieldwork was conducted by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa.
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