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Likely voters divide on whether the economy or Iraq is a more important priority for the nation, and that judgment cuts directly to vote choice. Those who give more importance to the economy favor Democratic candidates for the House by 2-1, while those who cite Iraq favor Republican candidates by as wide a margin.
Vote Preference: |
| | All | Democrats | Republicans |
| Higher priority: Iraq | 46% | 33 | 66 |
| Higher priority: Economy | 51 | 64 | 34 |
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Another result shows the extent to which the concerns about Iraq so prominently voiced by President Bush have touched a nerve. Fifty-seven percent of likely voters say they're "very worried" about efforts by Iraq to develop nuclear weapons, compared to 32 percent who express that level of worry about the economy's direction the next few years.
Vote Preference: |
| | All | Democrats | Republicans |
| "Very worried" about a nuclear armed-Iraq | 57% | 43 | 55 |
| "Very worried" about economy's direction | 32 | 71 | 22 |
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Economy
Nonetheless, the economy clearly remains a factor in its own right. Seventy-one percent of likely voters say it's in bad shape, and they favor Democratic candidates by 55-42 percent. (The three in 10 who rate the economy positively favor Republicans by a huge 69-32 percent.)
Additionally, more likely voters say they're worse off — 32 percent — than the number who say they're doing better financially now than two years ago, 22 percent. These views, too, cut overwhelmingly to vote, with worse-off likely voters favoring Democratic candidates for House by 3-1.
Vote Preference: |
| | All | Democrats | Republicans |
| Economy: Excellent or good | 29% | 32 | 69 |
| Economy: Not so good or poor | 71 | 55 | 42 |
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Bush
Beyond concerns about terrorism and Iraq, two factors are countering these economic blues. One is that most people don't directly blame Bush; just 34 percent give him any appreciable blame for the country's economic problems, while 65 percent don't.
A related factor is Bush's continued high job approval rating — 67 percent among likely voters in this poll, still the best job approval rating of any postwar president heading into his first midterm election. Indeed nearly half, 47 percent, approve "strongly" of Bush's overall job performance. Bush approvers favor Republican House candidates by 3-1; Bush disapprovers favor Democrats for House almost unanimously.
Most likely voters, 54 percent, say Bush isn't a direct factor in their vote choice. But twice as many say one reason for their vote is to show support for Bush (30 percent) as say it's to oppose him (15 percent).
Issues
The list of issues important to voters demonstrates their fragmented concerns: Terrorism, Iraq, the economy, and education are rated "very important" by nearly equal numbers, with two others, Social Security and prescription drugs, a bit further back.
Voters Rating Issues ‘Very Important:’ |
| War on terrorism |
71% |
| Economy/jobs |
69 |
| Education |
68 |
| Iraq |
65 |
| Health care |
64 |
| Social Security |
57 |
| Prescription drugs |
55 |
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Asked to choose the single most important issue on this list, 32 percent cite either the war on terrorism or Iraq, while 27 percent cite the economy, with the others trailing.
Voters Rating Issues ‘Most Important:’ |
| Terrorism or Iraq (net) |
32% |
| Economy/jobs |
27 |
| Education |
14 |
| Health care |
9 |
| Social Security |
8 |
| Prescription drugs |
6 |
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Naturally there are sharp divisions by political affiliation: Democrats divide about evenly between terrorism/Iraq and the economy; independents tilt slightly toward the economy; but Republicans pick terrorism or Iraq as their main issue by a substantial margin.
Voters Rating Issues ‘Most Important:’ |
| | Democrats | Republicans | Independents |
| Terrorism or Iraq (net) | 23% | 45 | 24 |
| Economy/jobs | 26 | 26 | 31 |
| Education | 16 | 12 | 17 |
| Health care | 11 | 5 | 13 |
| Social Security | 10 | 3 | 10 |
| Prescription drugs | 11 | 4 | 3 |
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Tie
The balance of these issues and the vote preferences they fuel is a dead heat. Fifty percent of likely voters in this poll favor Democratic candidates for House, 49 percent, Republicans. And that's pretty much how the last three elections have looked.
Methodology
This ABC News poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 31-Nov. 2, 2002, among a random national sample of 504 likely voters. The results have a 4.5-point error margin. Fieldwork by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Penn.
Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.
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