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NEWS SUMMARY

The Middle East

Israel continues its military campaign despite President Bush's admonishments, distracting the administration from its designs on Iraq, where Saddam Hussein is threatening — without much support from his neighbors, yet — to cut oil exports, possibly making the markets even more jittery today after gas prices have risen eight cents in the past two weeks.

Back in Washington, per Roll Call , some Republican Senators are rather blatantly using the Middle East crisis to try to leverage support for drilling for oil in ANWR, in the face of lengthening odds that the measure will pass, while the Washington Post paints a picture of a White House still pushing for drilling in the reserve, and fretting over rising gas prices and the economy in general.

Got it?

If there's one thing political reporters don't understand, it's how the oil markets work. Clearly, there's some big macro connection between President Bush's military designs on Iraq, Arab countries' attitude toward said designs, and potential changes in oil prices infecting the overall state of the American economy.

To paraphrase the old joke, there are only two people who understand the connection between Middle East turmoil, oil prices, and the US economy, and unfortunately, they disagree.

Right now, the Middle East poses two political problems for Bush: 1) it may wind up hurting the economy; and 2) it could lead to an unraveling of the international credibility he has built up, which could then undermine him at home.

USA Today writes up the crisis as a test of Bush's global clout. "Sharon is openly defying Bush's insistence that he withdraw troops from Palestinian areas … The refusal of such a strong U.S. ally to comply with the president's wishes could represent a temporary setback for Bush's authority and prestige, not just in the Middle East but around the globe. Senior Bush advisers made it clear that the president was irritated by Sharon's initial response."
( http://www.usatoday.com/usatonline/20020408/4005945s.htm )

In another story, the Nation's Newspaper notes that "it's become increasingly clear that the route to winning international cooperation against Baghdad goes through Jerusalem." ( http://www.usatoday.com/news/washdc/2002/04/08/usat-iraq.htm

The Today show followed up on the Boston Globe 's look yesterday at the different Middle East approaches taken by the administrations of 42 and 43, pegging it to Bush's apparent weekend attacks on Clinton, echoing the mea culpa'ed effort Ari made several weeks ago.

Check out those dueling AP headlines from the weekend by the ultra-fair Ron Fournier: "Bush Derides Clinton's Mideast Work" and "Bush Says He Wasn't Blaming Clinton."

At some point, if Bush can't get his finger back in the dike, where Clinton had his so successfully for so long, people might (Don Evans' worst nightmare) begin to compare Bush UNFAVORABLY to his predecessor.

"Clinton, who virtually memorized the layout of Jerusalem in his quest to bring Israelis and Palestinians to an agreement, made an excruciating and ultimately unsuccessful attempt to find a peaceful settlement," the Globe noted yesterday. "Bush, who … described his West Bank trip (as governor of Texas) as one of the most moving events of his life, has opted to wait until the two sides seek his counsel rather than impose his own views, a tack his advisers believe shows a more realistic understanding of the region." ( http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/097/nation/Crisis_forced_
Bush_s_hand_on_Mideast+.shtml )

Here's the nut sentence, though: "But the practical result of that hands-off policy, analysts say, is that Bush has ended up responding to the dizzying pace of daily events instead of taking command of them."

It's going to take awhile to figure out whether all this turmoil will lead to a political/economic problem for the president based on higher oil prices and gas prices, but it's not too early for some of our colleagues, like the Post 's Mike Allen, to begin to speculate.

Allen writes, "Despite nearly unanimous forecasts for a growing economy, White House officials say they have begun to fear rising gasoline prices could wipe out public optimism, and President Bush repeatedly warns audiences that a recovery is not assured." ( http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A10858-2002Apr7.html )

"Officials in this White House say their continuing trepidation is driven partly by the president's determination to seek reelection in 2004 without confronting the battle cry that helped defeat his father in 1992: 'It's the economy, stupid.'"

"'In many consumers' eyes, gas prices are a direct indicator of the economy,' a White House official said. 'This is money people dig for in their pockets every few days.'"

"To try to preempt criticism, Bush's Energy Department plans to begin a public relations and policy offensive today. It includes the reopening of a toll-free hot line for reporting price gouging, which operated for a month after Sept. 11 and drew 3,000 calls. Cases will be sent to the Federal Trade Commission for investigation."

"Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham, criticized for talking mainly to industry officials while helping write Bush's energy policy, plans to meet with consumer groups this week about ways to keep gasoline flowing. The department is also sending 'Wake Up' letters to senators and House members, predicting an onslaught of questions from voters."

"But the offensive on gas prices is just one sign of White House leeriness about the economy. Bush's out-of-town speeches acknowledge no signs of an upturn. Bush began warning of an impending recession shortly after he was elected; the recession later was determined to have begun in March. Now, aides say he wants to be the last to declare a recovery has begun on the theory that if the economy is buoyant, he will get credit without having to claim it."

USA Today piles on with this pair of stories: "Gasoline prices, which have risen steadily since February, jumped more than 8 cents in the past two weeks." ( http://www.usatoday.com/money/energy/2002-04-07-gas.htm )

And, "Of the 8.1 million jobless people in the USA in March, 1.3 million, or 16.3%, had been unemployed for 27 weeks or longer, the highest level since mid-1996, according to the government." ( http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2002-04-08-unemployed.htm

And the The Wall Street Journal 's main economy story is about continued hiring weakness.

In another key pair of stories, Roll Call notes how the Middle East is leeching into the Senate debate over the energy bill, which is expected to resume this afternoon.

In the first story, the paper notes that Republicans, "[e]ager to avoid defeat on a key plank of President Bush's domestic agenda, … are considering pulling the plug on a massive energy bill unless it includes a provision that permits new drilling in Alaska, GOP sources said." ( http://www.rollcall.com/pages/news/00/2002/04/news0408a.html )

"[A]lthough many Republicans such as Senator Frank Murkowski (Alaska) continue to predict that the ANWR provision will be part of the final bill, others said it has become clear that the 60 votes needed to guarantee victory are not there. Some Republicans now say that after the GOP made such an aggressive effort to link ANWR to national security, it might be difficult to support any bill that does not include the provision."

One "senior Democratic aide" in the story hints that Democrats are on the lookout for GOP efforts to use the crisis in the Middle East as further reason to drill for oil in ANWR.

Which is interesting given the other, probably more newsworthy Roll Call story reporting outright that "GOP leaders are using the current Israeli-Palestinian crisis to pressure prominent Jewish groups to back a proposal to open the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil exploration." ( http://www.rollcall.com/pages/news/00/2002/04/news0408i.html )

"Top Senate Republicans, led by Republican Conference Chairman Rick Santorum (Pa.) and Senator Frank Murkowski (Alaska), argue that allowing drilling in ANWR would reduce U.S. dependence on oil from the Middle East, limiting Arab governments' leverage over the Bush administration as it tries to negotiate a cease-fire between Israelis and Palestinians, while at the same time strengthening Israel's own security."

"Santorum made his pitch in a conference call with representatives from major Jewish groups on Friday, according to GOP sources. He played up recent comments from Iraqi and Iranian officials suggesting that Middle Eastern governments should cut off oil sales to the West as a means of forcing the United States and Israel to the negotiating table."

From the ABCNEWS London Bureau: Heavy gunfire broke out in Bethlehem overnight around the Church of the Nativity, where some 200 Palestinians have been taking refuge from Israeli troops. Israeli security sources have admitted to firing in the direction of the church, but said they were not to blame as Palestinian gunmen inside the church had fired on troops trying to rescue injured comrades. Each side also blamed the other for starting a fire in a hall adjoining the church. In Jenin, Israeli helicopter gunships have also been firing missiles into a refugee camp.

Secretary of State Powell has arrived in Morocco on the first leg of a Middle East tour designed to explore a possible cease-fire between Israel and the Palestinians. In Morocco, Powell will hold talks with King Mohammed and Crown Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arabia.

The Los Angeles Times ' Brownstein applauds Bush's flexibility on the Middle East and hankers for him to apply it to the domestic arena. "Whatever the merits of his original disengagement, his decision to dispatch Powell suggests that he is adjusting to changed circumstances … and learning from experience, after watching how conditions deteriorated without American involvement. That should be exactly what America wants in a president." ( http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/asection/la
-000025169apr08.column?coll=la%2Dnews%2Da%5Fsection )

"If anything, America would probably be better off if Bush was willing to adapt to new circumstances more often. Especially on domestic issues, Bush usually resists changing his views until it is unavoidable, and sometimes he doesn't move then."

"The best example is the federal budget. The world has been utterly transformed since last spring when Bush pushed through Congress his $1.3-trillion tax cut … The tax cut today is an anachronism: a luxury of peace in a time of war. But Bush has adamantly refused to reconsider it. His intransigence makes it unlikely Congress will agree on a budget this year."

President Bush travels to the Volunteer State today for a volunteerism event in Knoxville. Coincidentally (or not), Sens. John McCain and Evan Bayh will hold a town hall meeting on their own volunteerism proposal, from which the Bushies arguably borrowed, at the University of Michigan.

Back at the White House later today, Bush will meet with business and labor leaders to discuss terrorism insurance.

Sounds like the event in Knoxville will be another one of those bipartisan affairs this White House lives to put together, with Bush surrounded by Democratic mayors.

"President Bush is applauding elected officials for heeding his call to bolster police and emergency teams with volunteers and announcing he'll seek $50 million from Congress to boost that effort," the AP's Lindlaw reports. "Later, he planned an address to local officials who have set up councils to coordinate the Citizen Corps that Bush called for in his State of the Union address … Among the mayors traveling to Knoxville for the announcement were Anthony Williams of Washington and James Hahn of Los Angeles." ( http://www.thestate.com/mld/thestate/news/politics/3020303.htm)

The Washington Post previews the labor meeting, "In a meeting today with business and labor leaders, President Bush will emphasize the possibility that jobs could be lost if the Senate does not act on terrorism insurance legislation, a senior administration official said. Bush plans to use the meeting to highlight the growing 'drag on the economy' created by a lack of available terrorism insurance since Sept. 11, the official said." ( http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A10709-2002Apr7.html )

"Don't expect any political endorsements," particularly in the Republican US Senate primary, "when President Bush visits Knoxville today … A White House spokeswoman said Friday the president will stay neutral." Rep. Ed Bryant will be there, and former Gov. Lamar Alexander probably will be, as well. ( http://www.tennessean.com/local/archives/02/04/15855213.
shtml?Element_ID=15855213 )

The White House wants the strongest candidate in this race, and most of the president's political advisers continue to think that means Lamar, but this is one where they are still inclined to maintain public neutrality.

Also today, a group of women Democratic US Senators will gather in New York for meetings, fundraising, and to ring the NASDAQ closing bell.

On Tuesday, President Bush travels to Connecticut, where he'll combine fundraising for the state's Republican governor and several Republican House members with a tour of a local community service organization and remarks on Social Security. Back at the White House, Bush will meet with NATO Secretary General Lord Robertson.

Whatever his feelings are on Shays-Meehan-McCain-Feingold, Bush is giving Rep. Chris Shays a fundraising appearance of his own. ( http://www.rollcall.com/pages/news/00/2002/04/news0408j.html )

First Lady Laura Bush will attend the funeral of the Queen Mother in London.

Tuesday also brings the Texas Democratic US Senate run-off and other run-offs in the president's home state. For their nomination to replace the retiring Phil Gramm (R), Democrats will choose between Ron Kirk, the African-American former mayor of Dallas, and Victor Morales, a schoolteacher who was the party's 1996 nominee. Democratic party operatives in Washington view Kirk as the more viable general election candidate and are hoping his turnout efforts in Dallas and Houston will put him over the top, but several local run-offs around the state may gin up Hispanic turnout, likely helping Morales.

And finally, on Tuesday, Attorney General Ashcroft will head to New York City to tour Ground Zero and appear on Letterman.

On Wednesday, President Bush in DC will tour another local community service organization, and make remarks at the White House on human cloning

Wednesday also brings the kick-off of the Democrat-leaning Campaign for America's Future summit in DC, which House Minority Leader Gephardt, Senator John Edwards, and Gov. Howard Dean all will address on Thursday. And down in Florida, quarterly campaign finance reports are due.

On Thursday, Bush will give a speech on his faith-based initiative. Former President Clinton will be in DC to present the Democratic Leadership Council's leadership and national service award to Maryland Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend at the Capital Hilton. Sens. Joe Lieberman and Fred Thompson will hold a homeland security hearing on the creation of a Department of National Homeland Security and a White House office to combat terrorism. And House Minority Leader Gephardt will start campaigning for Democratic candidates in Iowa.

Bush has no public events currently scheduled for Friday, which is just as well since the national political media will turn its focus to Orlando, FL and the start of the Florida Democratic party convention, at which five potential Democratic presidential candidates, including Al Gore, will speak.

Also on Friday, Vice President Cheney will appear at a fundraiser for Rep. Randy Forbes in Virginia. New York Gov. George Pataki will be the main attraction at a New Hampshire Republican Party fundraiser in Manchester, NH. House Minority Leader Gephardt will continue campaigning for Democratic candidates in Iowa. And applications to host 2004 Democratic National Convention are due.

The Middle East

David Sanger's New York Times analysis is a must-read because it gets at the biggest immediate pending question: what happens if the president isn't heeded? ( http://www.nytimes.com/2002/04/08/international/middleeast/08PREX.html )

"Mr. Sharon's unwillingness to declare when he will terminate the military operations in the West Bank clearly is annoying Mr. Bush ('He was some steamed when he got off the phone' with the prime minister, one witness said)." We hope that wasn't Dr. Rice, since that contradicts what she said on ABCNEWS' This Week on the record.

"For the first time Mr. Bush has issued commands that he believes sovereign nations or leaders must obey immediately, for their own good. Any prolonged acts of defiance of the president would call American influence into question."

"Officially, the White House does not want to consider that an option. But privately, among officials and outsiders, it is an endless source of speculation. How Mr. Bush responds to any such challenges to his authority over the next few days may be the fascinating subtext of his entry into the maelstrom of the Middle East."

"Mr. Sharon, the president's advisers believe, may dawdle in withdrawing his troops, but not for long. Within a day or two, he will have to show at least 'a symbolic withdrawal from someplace,' one senior administration official said."

"Mr. Bush's focus this week, his aides say, will be to bring along other Arab states, despite their pro-Palestinian, anti-American oratory. He is not saying what cards he hopes to play. But this weekend, he told everyone — Prime Minister Tony Blair of Britain, interviewers, guests to his ranch — that he would not organize a big summit meeting."

The number of colorful blind quotes from senior Administration officials on this Middle East story is really staggering. Our back-of-the-envelope sense is that there have been more in this one story than on literally every other story combined since 43 took over, and we aren't really sure why.

This one from Todd Purdum's front-page New York Times Powell trip curtain-raiser is typical: "One senior administration official said today that it was not yet ready to propose some comprehensive 'Bush plan' on the most difficult issues. 'It's not that kind of plan yet,' the official said. 'We're not at, "What do you do about Jerusalem?" This says we are in this with both feet, as bad as it is. It walks away from walking away.'" ( http://www.nytimes.com/2002/04/08/international/08POWE.html )

The Los Angeles Times ' Wright sets up Powell's trip as "the riskiest diplomatic venture the secretary has undertaken."
( http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/front/la
-000025153apr08.story?coll=la%2Dheadlines%2Dfrontpage )

In a perfect world, there would be a Sunday Note, and Dan Balz on the Middle East would have been a must-read. ( http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A7569-2002Apr6.html )

Iraq

Bill Safire beats the war drums for the Iraq attack. ( http://www.nytimes.com/2002/04/08/opinion/08SAFI.html )

ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary

Bob Novak is like us is so many ways. For instance, we both thought the (then) Bullets should have taken Karl Malone over Kenny Green in the NBA draft. ( http://www.nba.com/draft2001/history/top13.html?nav=ArticleList)

And Bob should resolve, as we have, to try to find people to talk to about the Democratic presidential nomination who won't just talk down Al Gore. It's hard, as we both have found, but it must be done, or Gore, who is the on-paper frontrunner, will keep sliding in The Invisible Primary — — and in Novak's columns, as in this Sunday notebook item:

"Longtime supporters of Al Gore say they believe he will reject their advice to sit out the 2004 presidential race and wait until 2008. The former vice president is reported to feel time will probably pass him by if he waits." ( http://www.suntimes.com/output/novak/cst-edt-novak07.html )

"Despite a lack of enthusiasm for Gore among party insiders, he remains the prohibitive favorite to be nominated again in 2004 if he runs. The compacted primary election schedule will likely help him against a crowded field of lesser-known Democrats."

"A footnote: Although friends of Gore were happy that he got rid of his beard, they winced when he said he was shaving it off to give his wife, Tipper, a chance to run for the Senate from Tennessee. The possibility that Mrs. Gore might try to duplicate Hillary Clinton's feat in New York was never taken seriously in political circles."

But Gore gets some innocuous good "Sightings" news on Page Six. ( http://www.nypost.com/gossip/pagesix.htm )

US News' item about Gephardt's mom fails to mention her previous Iowa residency. ( http://www.usnews.com/usnews/issue/020415/whispers/15whisplead.htm)

Kevin Landrigan's column looks at the generosity of national Democrats to their New Hampshire party.
( http://www.nashuatelegraph.com/main.asp?FromHome=1
&TypeID=1&ArticleID=54 )

Vermont Gov. Howard Dean today will keynote a California League of Conservation Voters luncheon in San Francisco.

The Manchester Union Leader over the weekend looked at a question so burning, it's amazing it wasn't asked before: is Shays-Meehan good or bad for the primacy of the New Hampshire primary? We like the fact that the story blithely asserts that John McCain is expected to run for president again, and we also like the way they identify Tom Rath.
( http://www.theunionleader.com/articles_show.html?article=10207 )

Political trivia is too nerdy even for us.

Except, of course, if done Jeopardy! style.

He, a football coach, nearly became John Kerry's opponent in this year's non-competitive Massachusetts US Senate race.

"Who is Anthony Kandel?" ( http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/097/metro/Challenge_to
_Kerry_ends_before_it_begins+.shtml )

Senator/Trial Lawyer John Edwards knows how to leverage the national media. ( http://www.nandotimes.com/politics/story/348324p-2858259c.html )

The The Wall Street Journal ed board tries to pin down Gov. Gray Davis between the teachers' unions and the school kids of the Golden State.

It's not Rock 'Em Sock 'Em Robots, but the DumpDaschle.org-vs.-DaschleDemocrats.org fight is pretty entertaining for political junkies. ( http://www.washtimes.com/national/20020408-122482.htm )

Florida Democratic Party convention

The Miami Herald runs the story we ran last week: it's too early to count out Janet Reno. ( http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/state/3019486.htm

Dare we say it: the new conventional wisdom?

While he has yet to break 20 percent in the polls, Reno's main challenger, Bill McBride, gets favorable press coverage. As pat as Geraldo's Tour of Terror, the litany goes like this: McBride is personally charismatic. He's well-liked within the party. He has union endorsements. He's a pro-business Democrat.

Still, read this Palm Beach Post story to see how McBride himself defines his gubernatorial quest. ( http://www.gopbi.com/partners/pbpost/epaper/editions/
monday/news_c31b2187540f427d004a.html )

Anyway, McBride will arrive at this Friday's state Democratic convention on a school bus, and a crowd from the Florida Education Association will be on hand at the Wyndham Hotel to greet him.

Reno is still formulating her plans.

Rep. Lois Frankel, the House Minority Leader, tells us that she's weighing the pros and cons of continuing in the race, and may make a decision by the end of this week.

Carol Roberts, the Palm Beach County canvasser, is parlaying her local legislative experience and 2000 notoriety into a run for the House, straight across the state from Secretary of State Katherine Harris, who is doing the same. Roberts will face Rep. Clay Shaw (R) in what will likely become on the most expensive House contests in the nation. A local hero at the convention is likely to be Eddie Diaz, who is challenging Republican Rep. Ric Keller for the 8th District, covering Orlando. Diaz is a former Orlando Police Department officer who was shot on the job by a man he stopped for a traffic violation, and overcame doctors' expectations that he would be crippled for life.

A decorated ex-Marine, Diaz underwent a very expensive, painful, and public period of rehabilitation. His name isn't known too much outside Puerto Rican and Democratic circles, but his story is eye-catching — and will be repeated as a theme of his campaign.

Keller, who narrowly defeated his Democratic challenger in 2000, is getting a late-April fundraising boost from Vice President Cheney, reflecting the somewhat shaky hold Republicans have on the seat.

Check here all week for our coverage.

Campaign Finance

Roll Call uses data showing that Democrats and their allied interest groups far outspent Republicans and their supporting groups in the final weeks of the 2000 elections as the peg for a look at whether the GOP will be ready in 2002. "While the largely corporate allies of the GOP have long used the NRCC and the National Republican Senatorial Committee as their proxies in the battle for Congress, many of the groups aligned with the Democrats have built their own fundraising and field organizations and campaign networks." ( http://www.rollcall.com/pages/news/00/2002/04/news0408e.html )

The Sunday Washington Post reported on a possible next step in changes to the campaign finance system. "A proposal being prepared by an outside task force would replace the Federal Election Commission with a streamlined agency, stripped of the FEC's political entanglements and armed with new powers to ensure prompt compliance and punishment of violators … " ( http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A7349-2002Apr6.html )

Politics

It's close, we think. Even given Bill Clinton's 15-year head start, we still ask the question: who likes Ron Fournier more, George Bush or his predecessor? If you saw Saturday's press conference, you have to wonder.

Roll Call follows up on the Sunday New York Times report with a story about how Senate Republicans are revamping their strategy for getting Bush's judicial nominees through. "The first public step in their effort will come this week, when Senate Republicans expect to hold a press conference with Hispanic groups and Latino leaders urging the confirmation of Miguel Estrada, a lawyer nominated to the U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia."
( http://www.rollcall.com/pages/news/00/2002/04/news0408d.html )
(also ( http://www.nytimes.com/2002/04/07/politics/07JUDG.html )

"Also, key figures on the GOP side of the judicial nomination fights, including Senate Republican leaders and White House Counsel Alberto Gonzales, plan to meet midweek. The meeting is part of a series of new strategy sessions in which they will talk face-to-face every other week. GOP staffers plan to meet once a week exclusively to discuss judicial nominations, aides said."

"Senate staffers met at the White House early last week to discuss how to better coordinate message and outreach with conservative interest groups."

The Baltimore Sun reports from Little Rock: "Construction is set to begin here on the $110 million William J. Clinton Presidential Center and Park. Far from trying to cover up the unsavory moments of the Clinton administration, city leaders call them the library's main selling point and a key to the city's future."Not_at_Clinton_library+.shtml )

Bill Clinton will laugh (to keep from crying) at this sentence in Robert Bartley's The Wall Street Journal column (which is his rebuttal to the Newsweek interview): "If I may speak for his critics, we have no desire to pursue him from now to eternity."

We aren't sure how long Bartley spent on the column, but Begala and Carville will be able to destroy most of it in 14 seconds, once they have done damage control on that ad featuring them on A12 of the New York Times , and on the US News report that Republicans are boycotting their show.
( http://www.usnews.com/usnews/issue/020415/whispers/15whisplead.htm

An end is in sight: after two month's worth of testimony, closing arguments will be delivered today in Rep. Jim Traficant's trial.
( http://www.rollcall.com/pages/news/00/2002/04/news0408c.html )

California

Under a headline the Gray Davis camp will love ("Simon Offers Few Specifics as 'the Candidate of Ideas'"), the Los Angeles Times takes a huge look at GOP gubernatorial nominee Bill Simon's failure thus far to offer specifics on many of his proposals. ( http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/front/la
-000025152apr08.story?coll=la%2Dheadlines%2Dfrontpage )

Like London during the Blitz, says one wag.

With so much time between now and the November election, and with both candidates being well-funded and voracious, it's only a matter of time before the advertising wars begin between Gray Davis and Bill Simon.

The Central Valley of California will get bombarded as never before — it's still a nominally Democratic region that's getting more Republican in tone.
( http://www.sacbee.com/content/politics/story/2090395p-2422841c.html )

Texas

One well-placed Democratic party source tells us of negative phone-banking against Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk, to the benefit of Victor Morales, as the party's US Senate run-off looms tomorrow.

The Houston Chronicle tickles the tea leaves and concludes that early voting patterns so far appear to be in Morales' favor, while Kirk looks to Houston for his electoral base. ( http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/story.hts/politics/1350288 )

North Carolina

Rick Berke gets his cherished front-page space with a long-overdue trip to Shelby, NC to check in on Elizabeth Dole's Senate race, and Mrs. Dole pretty much survives the experience. ( http://www.nytimes.com/2002/04/08/politics/08DOLE.html )

Mr. Berke (formerly of the Black and White, ( http://mbhs.edu/silverchips/inside.php?sid=389 ) , but now with the New York Times ), chronicles Mrs. Dole's familiar press-wary, scripted foibles but notes that she can still surprise long-time observers, "Mrs. Dole's practiced political skills often pay off. She stunned — and disarmed — a reporter when she reminded him of every detail of an event they both attended in a tiny town in New Hampshire two years ago and, added, 'It might not have been long after your dad passed away.'"

So Berke does get a brief interview (whereas some national reporters who have headed south have not), in which he asks her about Jesse Helms and Enron. On the latter, she comes up a bit short in her explanation of her September Ken Lay fundraiser, glossing over her campaign suspension.

The US Senate candidates courted the state's tiny but growing Latino vote this past weekend. "A major, seven-month Latino voter registration drive is scheduled to begin next month in North Carolina. The drive, paid for by the National Council of LaRaza, a national Latino civil rights group, will focus on parts of the state with substantial Latino populations — especially greater Charlotte and the Triangle." ( http://www.newsobserver.com/monday/front/Story/1109806p-1107528c.html )

The story notes that Mrs. "Dole left the forum abruptly without taking any questions from reporters. But she later called several reporters to discuss her views."

South Carolina

The South Carolina Republican party's efforts to reach out to African-American voters seem to be in considerable disarray. ( http://www.thestate.com/mld/thestate/news/politics/3017718.htm)

New York

The New York Post spanks Governor Pataki for appearing in tax-funded public service ads in an election year. ( http://www.nypost.com/postopinion/editorial/45318.htm )

Minnesota

Norm Coleman and Senator Paul Wellstone shook hands Saturday and agreed to be civil. ( http://www.startribune.com/stories/587/2212934.html )

Massachusetts

All is not quite hunky dory within the Massachusetts GOP after Mitt Romney's handpicked candidate for lieutenant governor trailed contender Jim Rappaport at the state party convention on Saturday: Rappaport is pissed off, and Romney suffered a PR hit despite his camp's efforts to downplay expectations for how their candidate would do. Now they have to continue supporting her through a long and likely nasty primary process. ( http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/098/metro/On_unity_
breakfast_menu_discord+.shtml )

( http://www2.bostonherald.com/news/local_regional/gop04082002.htm)

Bush Administration Strategy/Personality

In the Washington Post story previewing Bush's meeting with labor leaders today, the story notes that "Teamsters leader James P. Hoffa and Edward Sullivan, president of the AFL-CIO construction trades department, are among the 125 people the White House expects to be at the meeting." ( http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A10709-2002Apr7.html )

Tom Ridge's liaison to Capitol Hill has quit, Roll Call reports. "It is unclear if Halkias' departure was forced or voluntary, although one White House official said Halkias 'was not a good fit' for the job. Halkias' departure comes at an awkward time for Ridge, who is the middle of a slow-motion showdown with Senate Appropriations Chairman Robert Byrd (D-W.Va.) over whether Ridge can be required to formally testify before Congress." ( http://www.rollcall.com/pages/news/00/2002/04/news0408b.html )

Would some expert please check this out and get back to us? Judith Miller breathlessly leads on the front page of the New York Times : "The Bush administration has informed Moscow that Washington is curtailing many new disarmament projects because of concern about Russia's compliance with treaties banning chemical and biological weapons, according to senior administration officials." ( http://www.nytimes.com/2002/04/08/international/08RUSS.html )

Jeff Toobin's New Yorker profile of Attorney General Ashcroft covers familiar ground: Ashcroft has presidential ambitions; the (liberal) career Justice staff doesn't trust him — at least those (liberal) careerists who know how to be found by, and speak anonymously to, profile writers; some civil libertarians in Congress and elsewhere don't trust Ashcroft; and the White House thinks Ashcroft is a rock star.

Budget Politics

David Broder doesn't approve of the Democrats taking a pass on the budget: ( http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A4390-2002Apr5.html )

On the other side of the aisle, the Los Angeles Times reports: "House Republicans plan to act on two bills in the next two weeks that would bolster taxpayer rights and make permanent last year's major tax cuts. The votes will enable the GOP to spotlight its stance on taxes in an election year when many voters are worried about a still-fragile economy. Both bills are expected to win approval in the Republican-led House, although the vote on tax cuts could be close." ( http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/098/nation/House_GOP_
readies_tax_bills_for_vote+.shtml )

Legislative Agenda

Tuesday afternoon, House and Senate conferees will try and hash out their differences over this year's farm bill.

Reading this Des Moines Register article, we're reminded how fortunate Tom Harkin is: he gets to preside over a billion-dollar agriculture boost during an election year when he's arguably the most vulnerable he's been since … well … last time he was up for election.
( http://desmoinesregister.com/news/stories/c4789004/17835811.html )

The New York Times ed board reminds former Governor Bush that he was once a believer in the "wisdom of leaving things to the states" on matters such as welfare reform. ( http://www.nytimes.com/2002/04/08/opinion/_08MON1.html )

Bob Novak details the "diverse" White House coalition behind anti-terrorism insurance aid, which has been a Bush administration priority since September, but which will draw an enormous amount of opposition.

In Novak's world, it's the trial lawyers, environmentalists and feminists (and, we'd add, consumer advocates) versus just about everyone else. "Everybody in Washington thought a deal had been reached, but the compromise was not good enough for the trial lawyers. They demand the ability to sue not only for economic damages but also punitive damages, which is where the big bucks are." ( http://www.townhall.com/columnists/robertnovak/rn20020408.shtml ) Lest we point out: it's in the insurance industry's interest (!!) to get this sort of help from the government, and many modest observers aren't too sure whether they need as much help as they claim. On their side, though, they have stories like the one we heard last week: a church near the White House losing its insurance, because, well, it could be pulverized during a nuclear attack

Enron

Army Secretary Thomas White tells the Washington Times in an interview that he "intends" to remain in his post. ( http://www.washtimes.com/national/20020408-5619734.htm )

The Washington Times offers another story on the Clinton Administration's relations with Enron: "The company's international stature grew remarkably in the 1990s, to a point that Clinton officials sought its help in solving problems big and small, including drumming up support for the global-warming treaty, promoting economic development in the war-torn Middle East and Bosnia and drafting the details of an arcane bankruptcy reform measure."
( http://www.washtimes.com/national/20020408-11793872.htm )

"Congressional experts say the 11 separate Congressional committees and subcommittees looking into Enron appears to be the highest number of panels ever to simultaneously investigate the same topic," Roll Call reports. ( http://www.rollcall.com/pages/news/00/2002/04/news0408h.html )

Media

Will Tom do the News from Vegas tonight? Will you like the new The Wall Street Journal , starting tomorrow? Those are the big media questions for this cycle.
( http://www.rtnda.org/news/2002/012402.shtml )

The Pultizer Prizes will be announced today.

And we really like this paragraph from David Bianculli's Daily News speculalysis piece on who should replace Bryant Gumbel: " … (T)here's Jeff Greenfield, whose contract is up soon at CNN. CBS could also try to woo someone younger but still prone to serious analysis, like Ashleigh Banfield or Robert Krulwich." ( http://www.nydailynews.com/2002-04-08/New_York_Now/Television/a-146875.asp )

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