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But the consensus among said experts does seem to be that once it begins, the war will end — the military action, that is, with subsequent peace-keeping/nation-building efforts TBD — relatively quickly.

While the (Mad Libbers, choose your adjectives) sagging, lagging, sputtering economy remains.

The Note would like to take this moment to thank guest editor John Harwood, who has brought to the process a welcomed dash of early-morning enthusiasm.

We woke up this Monday morning (or, in the case of our West Coast operative, fell asleep Sunday evening) to a gruesome pair of must-reads for the White House in the The Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post on how President Bush's economic agenda — and perhaps his overall perch on the pedestal — is on shaky ground with lawmakers in his own party.

Mike Allen's Washington Post lead this morning: "President Bush's intermittent efforts to appear as concerned about jobs as he is about terrorism have never taken hold, and his aides say he will use the next two weeks to try to improve his footing on the economy before likely plunging into a war with Iraq." LINK

Mike details the administration's economic PR efforts for this week and beyond, but then goes on to reward his sources with the following kick in the teeth: "Some of Bush's allies in the K Street lobbying community fret that the White House botched the rollout of his two domestic priorities — fundamental changes to Medicare, and the economic package, which is built around eliminating taxes on stock dividends."

"Parts of both plans have been panned on Capitol Hill, even by many Republicans. Some GOP lawmakers are complaining about the huge deficits built into Bush's new budget."

"'Bush has lost his luster,' said an aide to a Senate Republican leader. 'There are difficulties for him on the entire domestic agenda.'"

"Bush officials are scrambling to make amends with Congress. The Medicare proposal is being rewritten, although aides don't know when it will be ready, promising only 'early this year.' An official said Friday a central tenet of the plan — that seniors who want prescription drugs would have to join a managed-care network — is still under review."

"A White House official acknowledged that it was a mistake to let some parts of Bush's agenda, including a plan to allow Americans to shelter large swaths of their savings and investments from taxes, 'hit Congress out of the blue … '"

"White House officials, for all their jitters, maintain that Bush will eventually get much of what he proposed, just as he did his first year in office, when his campaign plan for a $1 trillion tax cut wound up being passed with only minor concessions. 'We don't seek unanimity at the beginning of the process,' a senior administration official said. 'The president seeks a majority at the end.'"

(By comparison, Elisabeth Bumiller on Sunday looked at the White House's carefully crafted PR campaign on the war, including Matt Dowd on the Post -Powell one-night polls: "The public relations campaign, coordinated by the White House communications office and the National Security Council, has included carefully timed speeches by Mr. Bush and his war council, a close monitoring of public opinion polls and the use of television in crucial markets to spread the administration's message across the country." LINK

At one point, a series of problematic developments "prompted some White House officials to murmur among themselves, as one put it, that it was beginning to feel 'a lot like August' — a reference to last summer, when Mr. Bush stayed largely silent on Iraq at his Texas ranch as a debate over the war raged among leading Republicans and on the opinion pages of newspapers.")

And the Wall Street Journal makes this eye-catching offer today: "Even under ideal circumstances, President Bush's provocative domestic agenda would be hard to sell on Capitol Hill. But problems with the White House sales force are making it even harder."

"Mr. Bush has reshuffled pivotal team members on tax policy, health care and relations with Congress. Lawmakers still aren't sure what the administration is seriously proposing, because some hot-button items are identified with officials who have departed and others face resistance from both parties. As a result, those in charge of promoting tax cuts and a Medicare overhaul offer skeptics contradictory answers — or sometimes no answers at all … "

" … [M]ost of Mr. Bush's attention now is consumed with the prospect of war with Iraq. As his popularity ebbs, the economy remains sluggish and budget deficits mount, losing control of the domestic debate could present big political problems for his expected 2004 re-election bid long after military action has been completed."

"The top White House domestic priority has been winning passage of its economic plan. But the administration rushed out the package in early January without fully working through either the sales pitch or the details. Bush aides have since have scrambled to fill in the blanks, in some cases reversing themselves on central aspects … "

"Lawmakers can't say whether they will approve Mr. Bush's proposed Medicare overhaul, either, because they still don't know enough about what it entails. First, the White House kept lawmakers in the dark about essential details of an initiative that would add prescription-drug coverage while using market forces to try to stem the program's long-term insolvency. Then news leaks in mid-January, indicating that Mr. Bush wanted to require beneficiaries to enroll in managed-care plans to receive drug coverage, generated flak from both parties. Since then, the White House has backpedaled, begun consulting privately with Republican lawmakers and declared that no final decisions have been made."

The most clichéd thing you can say about President Bush's likely run for re-election is that he is determined to avoid the mistakes of his father. Today's coverage of the president's plan to renew his focus on the economy — which, of course, arguably concedes that he had lost it — doesn't quite send "the message: I care," but the gist is pretty darn close.

The best thing for the president, of course, is for the economy to actually get better, eventually. But in the short term, both to restore confidence and to make it clear — we've gotta say it — that he does care, the president wants to be seen as fixing the economy with one hand while he reviews bombing targets with the other.

The Washington press corps has grown somewhat tired of chronicling Democrats' complaints about the economy and how much it's Bush's fault (and it will take a well thought through presidential campaign message to reignite interest in that). But today's storyline, with Republicans hitting on that message — well, that's something the press can get really into. And no, this isn't a case of liberal bias. Remember when we saw this in the 1990s: Bob Kerrey and John Breaux and conservative House Democrats' criticism of Bill Clinton got plenty of coverage.

The Journal story also makes a big deal out of the all the personnel changes that have taken place, and then suggests that Commerce Secretary Don Evans just might be the man to fix all of this.

Right on cue, Roll Call 's Wallison profiles the genial Mr. Evans: "When Commerce Secretary Don Evans works the halls of Congress these days, he's selling two packages: the president's economic plan, and himself. 'Look, in terms of economics, I understand our economy,' Evans, a longtime business executive, said Friday in an interview. 'I've got a good feel for our economy. I understand, as somebody from the private sector, how our economy works. I mean, this isn't something I've just read out of a textbook.'"

"Once one of the least visible of the Bush administration's Cabinet secretaries, Evans has emerged in the past month as perhaps the lead figure in the White House's efforts to bring the Congress in line behind the president's proposals to spur the sluggish economy."

"It's not a role that falls naturally to a Commerce secretary, whose portfolio tends to be concentrated on trade and other international affairs of business."

"But the Post -election dismissal of two of the Bush economic team's senior members … thrust the transplanted Texan into a key role in the administration's Capitol Hill sales job."

"In the interview, Evans seemed palpably frustrated by a reporter's suggestion that Members are apt to rally more readily around a package that's good for them politically than one that's 'good' economically. He referred back to President Bush's campaign pledge to 'change the tone' in the capital. 'The president, like me, does not believe this is a zero-sum game in this town,' Evans said."

"If it's an economic package Evans is selling to Congress, lawmakers have been just as eager to buy a commodity that Evans has not advertised at market: His decades-long personal friendship with Bush."

"Evans concedes that his strong friendship with Bush makes him a likely conduit for important information to and from lawmakers … But Evans stressed that critical information from the Hill is hashed out by Bush's entire economic team … "

Gov. Tom Vilsack on Saturday radioed America that the occupants of the executive branch need to pay more attention to the economy. LINK

Speaking of Iowa, some of the Democratic presidential wannabes, meanwhile, were out and about this weekend (for reasons The Note and Bill Clinton — we assume — can't really understand), steering clear of the economy and hitting Bush on other matters (more on that below), perhaps preferring to leave the Big Casino give-and-take to Senate Democratic leaders.

David Broder on Sunday found merit in Bush's budget for Senate Minority Leader Daschle's "credibility gap" charge. LINK

Daschle will be at Carnegie Elementary School in Chicago this morning, talking with students, teachers, administrators and parents about education and "President Bush's failure to fully fund" the No Child Left Behind Act. Daschle will be accompanied by Senator Dick Durbin, and the two will hold a media availability after the meeting.

The back-and-forth between former Gov. Howard Dean, the nimble Adam Nagourney, and Senator John Kerry just might be better than painkillers for the healing Senator Bob Graham, the only Democrat who voted against the war resolution, who is now home from the hospital and making fundraising calls.

Nagourney spends nine New York Times graphs on Dean's position on the war before getting to this: "Dr. Dean is in the tradition of a long line of presidential candidates who have garnered warm early news notices by coming across as alternatively charming and iconoclastic. Not surprisingly, some of his opponents have complained about what they described as the free ride Dr. Dean has gotten, particularly as other Democrats — notably Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts — have shifted back and forth as they have tried to express their position on Iraq." LINK

He then summarizes Kerry's Iraq statements from that Sunday night press conference.

President Bush is off to Nashville at this writing to talk up his compassionate conservative agenda at the National Religious Broadcasters Convention. After he returns, he'll make war talk with the Prime Minister of Australia.

Floor debate in the Senate over controversial Bush judicial nominee Miguel Estrada is expected to continue today.

On Tuesday, President Bush will meet with the president of Ecuador.

On Wednesday, Bush will take part in an economic roundtable in DC.

Thursday, Bush will head to Jacksonville to make remarks at the Mayport Naval Air Station.

And Bush's schedule on Friday, the expected date of delivery of the Blix report, is TBD.

Estrada

Bob Novak writes that Senate Majority Leader/Dr. Frist may do his darndest to force a vote on Estrada, proving his bona fides to those Republicans who are still somewhat anxious about Frist's faithfulness to the cause. LINK

The Washington Times ' Lambro picks up, albeit from a somewhat motley assortment of sources, on unhappiness within the Democratic party on how the party is faring with Hispanics: "Few, if any, Democratic state leaders want to be heard criticizing their party's leadership at the beginning of the 2004 presidential election cycle. But grass-roots leaders and activists say the class-warfare attacks on President Bush's tax cuts have not worked and that a less strident, more focused economic message is needed to reconnect with swing voters who supported Republicans in November. Some say they long for Bill Clinton's ability to shape and market the party's message better." LINK

"Other Hispanic and Latino leaders privately say that Senate Democrats are being pushed into opposing the conservative judicial nominee by the party's liberal constituencies, including feminist groups, pro-choice Democrats, and civil rights organizations such as the NAACP."

"But other Democratic insiders who do not want to be identified say that Mr. Daschle and the Democratic National Committee have been getting complaints from some grass-roots Democrats that the party's opposition to Mr. Estrada is not playing well with many Hispanics in their states."

"The issue has become especially sensitive among Democratic officials in states including Florida, Texas and California where Latino and Hispanic populations are strongest."

Big Casino/Budget Politics

On the omnibus spending bill, David Rogers intones mightily in the Wall Street Journal : "House and Senate Appropriations committees meet Monday evening with the hope of ratifying the $396 billion-plus package. Vice President Cheney is playing an increasingly important role for the White House, and not since the early Eisenhower administration have Republicans been so in command of the appropriations machinery that controls the nuts and bolts of government … "

"The single biggest casualty is a $3.1 billion farm-aid package now expected to be dropped from the bill. Major cuts also are made in the administration's budget to help state and local police and fire units — the 'first responders' in a terrorist incident — equip and train themselves for biological- and chemical-weapons attacks. But the timber and energy provisions affecting Western lands could yet provoke a bigger political backlash from Republican moderates and Democrats."

Robin Toner had a good Sunday piece on conservatives' attitude toward balanced budgets: "For many conservatives, the deficit is simply not as important as cutting taxes, letting Americans keep 'more of their own money' and limiting the size of the government. In general, spending on national security and the military is considered appropriate, spending on new social welfare entitlements is not — with a few exceptions for popular items like prescription drugs." LINK

Roll Call 's Nelson reports that "House Republican leaders are seeking to add almost a half-million dollars in new funding to hire economists who could boost the outlook for President Bush's $674 billion tax-cut plan. The new aides, set to be hired by the Joint Committee on Taxation, would specialize in" dynamic scoring.

The Wall Street Journal 's fabulously clear Greg Ip gets his turn (after a weekend of waiting that is always both a blessing and a curse for our favorite Dow Jonesers) to say, "President Bush is making the case for a shift toward a U.S. tax system based on consumption rather than income," writing off of "one chapter of the president's annual economic report" that came out on Friday.

Mr. Brownstein frets about Generations X and Y in the (non-)face of the dissipated lockbox. LINK

The New York Times ' Rosenbaum pointed out on Sunday that a lot of the smaller, less noticed (or even unnoticed) tax breaks for special interests are "proposals are similar to the ones Mr. Bush scoffed at when they were proposed in the 2000 election campaign by his Democratic opponent, Al Gore." LINK

Legislative Agenda

"House Republican plans to push a welfare-reform bill to a floor vote this week without committee hearings or markups has sparked outcries from Democrats," the Washington Times writes. LINK

From Sunday: "President Bush has embarked on a far-reaching campaign to transform the federal government's relationship with the nation's poor, seeking to tip control over social services to the states, reduce the funding of some programs, and require more proof that low-income people are eligible for public help." LINK

ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary

While the national media horde was sizing up the candidates at the NARAL dinner, Howie Kurtz was watching the national media horde. LINK

"Journalists recognize that few people are tuning in right now. But with a compressed primary schedule that will probably produce a nominee weeks after the voting starts, they say they have little choice but to leap into action."

"At times, the coverage amounts to a self-fulfilling prophecy in which reporters let the air out of a candidate's tires and then criticize his driving."

Mark Katz on Dukakis II: LINK

Dodd

Ms. Tumulty reports in Time that Senator Chris Dodd is expected to announce whether or not he'll run for president within a few weeks. She describes the crux of his decision-making to be the notion of long-term GOP control of the Senate versus being home with his young daughter. LINK

And David Lightman fills in the details: "Senator Christopher Dodd is sitting on a decent pile of campaign cash. National fund-raisers and political hotshots are calling to encourage him to run for president." LINK

"But the Connecticut Democrat is still deciding, and as he deliberates, he risks playing a dangerous political game."

"His indecision is making things awkward for Connecticut Democrats, notably Senator Joseph I. Lieberman, who can't really tap his natural home base for support. And the longer Dodd waits, the worse his chances of mounting a viable campaign become, as other candidates grab big donors and top operatives."

According to Lightman, and backed up by what we've heard, Dodd is getting a lot of encouragement from Connecticut residents, to whom he's been a constituency politician par excellence. And he has about $1.6 million in his campaign account.

Kerry

The Boston Globe 's Johnson wrote up the advance text of Kerry's Sunday night enviro speech, calling it "more rhetorical broadside than detailed policy statement. In fact, the text does not include key passages in previous environmental speeches, such as the senator's goal of producing 20 percent of the country's electricity from alternative and renewable energy sources by the year 2020." LINK

"Instead, the speech is one in a series the Kerry campaign plans in the coming weeks to maintain its profile and critique of the administration while he works behind closed doors to raise money and fill out his campaign staff. Outside Senate business, Kerry will be raising funds virtually this entire month, seeking to establish himself as the strongest alternative to Bush when he and his rivals for the Democratic nomination release new campaign finance reports in late April."

"A White House spokesman referred questions about Kerry's speech to the Republican National Committee. Kevin Sheridan, an RNC spokesman, said that if Kerry were serious about making environmental progress, he would work with Bush. 'He's looking for ways to score political points and outdo his Democrat competitors,' Sheridan said." LINK

The Boston Herald, meanwhile, writes up the speech after the fact: "'The Bush-Cheney energy policies leave us at the mercy of a region racked with violence and instability, now more than ever,' the presidential hopeful told a crowd of nearly 700 people at the John F. Kennedy Library in Dorchester. 'We can no longer tolerate a dependence on foreign oil that could be cut off amid global chaos at the whim of unstable tyrants like Saddam Hussein."' LINK

"Outside the library, a group of roughly 30 anti-war protesters criticized the senator's decision to support military action against Iraq provided the Bush administration demonstrated that it posed an imminent threat."

And, looking for a new twist for his post-speech coverage, perhaps, Glen Johnson decided to follow the "some 60" sign-wavers, weaving them into the context of Kerry's "conditional" decision to back a war with Iraq. LINK

"While Kerry aides said the senator was not troubled by the protest, one of the first that has greeted him on the presidential campaign trail, he came to the library by a driveway that was closed to all other traffic and entered the building by an entrance behind and beneath the building."

"Speaking with reporters before his speech, Kerry expressed respect for the protesters and their willingness to gather on a night when the temperature hovered in the teens. Nonetheless, the senator stood by his vote last fall in favor of a congressional resolution authorizing military force to disarm Iraq of any weapons of mass destruction."

Ms. Dowd, Mr. Zeleny, and Mr. Nagourney rounded out the traveling press corps.

Memo from a favorite Granite State Note source who attended a post-speech reception for Kerry in Boston Sunday night: "After getting lost on those damned traffic circles, we were met at the entrance by Ken Robinson (in his new 'architect' frames — I mean that as a compliment) and Nick Clemons. We were seated in the 'reserved' first-five row section. Mrs. Kerry was there."

"Kerry far exceeded my expectations; his speech was excellent, he was forceful, he was presidential. I was really impressed. His answers to questions were too long; he seems incapable of answering a question in a few sentences. There was a sprinkling of hands raised when David Nyhan asked us who wanted Kerry to run with McCain as veep."

"Kerry also said that he would not let attacks go unanswered. He said that Max Cleland did not answer the Republican attacks forcefully enough."

"There was a reception afterwards with water, coffee, and good Italian pastries. There seemed to be a mix of confirmed supporters and the undecided … Judy Reardon was there as was the past president of the state SEIU local."

"At this point, I'm waiting until at least the 100 Club dinner to make a decision. But I am more impressed with Kerry than I ever thought I'd be."

The Chicago Sun-Times' Sweet follows Senator Kerry's grandfather through Chicago. LINK

Post-genealogical scrutiny and post-Boca Raton, the Boston Globe 's Jacoby takes Anne Kornblut's subtle suggestions one step farther: Kerry "was speaking from a political calculus that never found a Jewish grandparent something to be 'excited' about until now — when for the first time in his career, he has to campaign for Jewish votes outside his home state." LINK

Mickey Kaus accuses Kerry of "comically transparent calculating opportunism." LINK

Mickey, we love you, man, but do you know this all started because the Globe hired a genealogist?

Roll Call 's Preston writes up Kerry's fence-mending efforts with his home-state delegation, inviting them "to become intimately involved in his presidential campaign." "The charm offensive may be particularly important for Kerry given that former House Minority Leader Richard Gephardt (D-Mo.) is making an aggressive pitch to win his House colleagues' backing for his own presidential effort."

Edwards

Congrats, Colin. As Kevin Landrigan reported on Sunday, "Democratic Party communications director Colin Van Ostern has decided to sign on with the presidential campaign of North Carolina Senator John Edwards. Van Ostern declined to say how many presidential candidates were competing for his services but decided Edwards appealed to him as the most likeable and articulate candidate who can beat President Bush." LINK

"Van Ostern will remain with the party through the end of February to assist with its '100 Club' fund-raiser on Feb. 26 that will feature four presidential hopefuls," including Edwards.

The Edwards team later today is expected to announce their New Hampshire field director and a President's Day weekend trip to the state.

To the extent that the media and his own efforts arguably landed him in a hole on the NAACP's South Carolina economic boycott, Edwards got a boost out of it from the head of the state NAACP, who asserted on Friday afternoon that Edwards' position has been consistent all along. LINK

John Wagner trailed Edwards to South Carolina this past weekend. LINK

An Edwards spokesperson says the Senator had a great trip and will shortly — as in, sometime this week — be rolling out a number of South Carolina endorsements.

More fundraising details for the coming weeks for Edwards. Tuesday, February 18 will bring the "New York kickoff" of his campaign, per an invitation beckoning one of our readers to a performance of "Hairspray" at the Neil Simon Theater: reception from 6:30 to 7:30 p.m., with the performance at 8:00 p.m., for $1,000 per person.

And Edwards "will get quality time before the Washington establishment next month as the featured Democratic speaker at this year's Gridiron dinner. Speeches at the annual gathering of politicians and journalists tend to be filled with self-deprecating humor. Edwards will get his shot March 8." LINK

South Carolina

The State's Bandy shifts his focus away from John Edwards and the boycott and onto the Jim Clyburn Primary. "Blacks make up 27 percent of the state's registered voters — 563,262 to be exact. Their influence increases dramatically in a Democratic primary, measuring about 53 percent of the vote." LINK

"Candidates invoke Clyburn's name constantly on the stump and go out of their way to say nice things about the Columbia Democrat. And Clyburn makes a point to show up at each of the candidates' events."

"Pressure on Clyburn is enormous. Once he decides to endorse someone, he'll need to put some 'oomph' behind it, Francis Marion University professor Neal Thigpen said … Clyburn has stature that extends beyond his district into black communities across the state. Blacks living in those areas consider him their representative. That makes him a power broker."

New Hampshire

The Saturday New Hampshire papers all covered state GOP executive director Chuck McGee's resignation, but there hasn't been very much since then. McGee said that he hired a Republican telemarketing firm to make advocacy calls only, and had no idea the firm would subcontract a job to block union phone banks on election day. LINK

The Concord Monitor lays it out: "When a Union Leader reporter asked GOP Executive Director Chuck McGee if he'd hired the telemarketing firm, Alexandria, Va.-based GOP Marketplace, that allegedly ordered the calls, McGee said he hadn't and that he had only vaguely heard of the company. Later, the newly elected state GOP chairwoman, Jayne Millerick, called the reporter to say that McGee 'was mistaken' — the party had indeed hired the company to make legal get-out-the-vote calls, but the firm hadn't made them, she said. Millerick said the party was in the process of trying to get its money back."

"Millerick issued a statement yesterday afternoon saying that she had accepted McGee's resignation, effective immediately. She said it had nothing to do with whether McGee ordered a phone-jamming operation, which she said McGee told her he did not do. The calls were 'generic, get-out-the-vote calls,' she said McGee told her."

The annual Wild Irish Breakfast fundraiser will be held March 17 at the Nashua Sheraton. Senator John Kerry and Rev. Al Sharpton are reportedly being courted to deliver witty addresses. LINK

Ah, the Irish/Jewish jokes ("We both love cabbage!") will flow like green beer or purple Manischewitz.

Gephardt

Roll Call 's Rothenberg turns his attention from Howard Dean to the former House Minority Leader: "the early signs are not what they might be for the former House Minority Leader, and Gephardt faces nagging and uncomfortable questions about his ability to excite Democratic activists."

"While Gephardt prefers to be seen as 'experienced' and 'tested,' he is vulnerable to being characterized as recycled and passé. That would be fatal in a party that has often rushed to embrace new faces, and it is almost certainly why his strategists are already talking about how to reposition the Congressman for his White House bid."

" … [T}he pressure is on Gephardt to generate excitement in his upcoming campaign announcement, scheduled for Feb. 19."

"Gephardt's long list of loyal operatives is also both an asset and a cause for some concern."

"While any candidate would prefer to have an army of current and former aides to staff a national campaign, Gephardt's team of talented veterans doesn't demonstrate that he is appealing to a new crop of party activists and voters. He needs to generate enthusiasm from Democrats who didn't back his last bid, or from those who weren't active in Democratic politics in 1988."

Note Note: Erik and Kori were in junior high school in 1988.

"But whatever the questions about Gephardt's initial positioning, it is a mistake to ignore his assets or dismiss his chances of winning the Democratic nomination … [H]e has turned into an effective speaker who shows real emotion. His ability to generate fierce loyalty stems, in part, from his fundamental decency and personal integrity. And he is known for his hard work and self-discipline, important qualities for a presidential candidate."

So why could Missouri be a battleground state in the Democratic nominating process? Steve Kraske has these guesses (and sounds a bit like Stu … ):

"Yes, he's from Missouri, and that counts for something. Yes, he's locked up early backing from much of the state's Democratic hierarchy. But as far as a lot of Kansas Citians are concerned, Gephardt might as well be from Pennsylvania." LINK

"He's a creature of Washington. He's a creature of St. Louis. But he's never been elected statewide. And, truth be told, Gephardt hasn't won as much as 60 percent of the vote in his own 3rd District since 1992, despite running against a succession of no-namers and outspending them by eye-popping totals."

"All that makes competing against Gephardt in Missouri more than a little tempting. What could make the lure irresistible is the state's brand-new early primary date and the political dynamics now in play."

"Missouri's primary is Feb. 3 — exactly one week after the nation's first primary in New Hampshire. Unlike previous election cycles, Missouri now means something. Upsetting Gephardt here could pay big dividends."

"But victory is not mandatory. Finishing second also would count, because Missouri is not a winner-take-all state. A runner-up finish would still translate to a pile of delegates, and delegates are the ultimate form of currency in the presidential sweepstakes game."

Patt Morrison reports in the Los Angeles Times : "Last week, [Gephardt] was the man of the hour, or two hours, at a fund-raiser at the Knoll, the splendiferous Beverly Hills digs of oil-and-movie mogul Marvin Davis and his wife, Barbara. Standing a couple of steps up on the grand staircase, Gephardt told the paid-up gathering (from $1,000 per guest to a $10,000 sponsor-sized check to his exploratory committee) that he considers Los Angeles 'my second home.' He gave an abbreviated version of his stump-issues speech and took questions from the group, among them one of the Democratic Party's biggest financial angels, entertainment mogul Haim Saban, whom Gephardt addressed by his first name."

Lieberman

Team Joe is proud to roll out the following hiring coups and staffing announcements: the little-known but long appreciated Joe Eyer will become deputy campaign director for political affairs; Matt Nugen will be director of delegate operations; and Frank Borges will be treasurer.

Raising the money Joe E.'s going to spend will be finance director Shari Yost, senior adviser for finance Fran Katz, and deputy finance director Jennifer Yocham.

And, Cynthia Jasso-Rotunno will be campaign manager for Hadassah Lieberman.

Dean

The Boston Globe takes a close look at Dr. Dynasaur, Vermont's comprehensive health insurance plan and wonders whether its steward can make it worth across the country. "Even Dean admits that his national plan, which also includes financial help for small businesses and the self-employed to purchase health insurance and for the elderly to buy medications, will be expensive. He estimates that it will cost the federal government $600 billion over 10 years, and he wants to roll back part of President Bush's tax cut for people earning more than $300,000 a year to pay for it, a politically risky proposal." LINK

"'Evidently Senator Kerry, Senator Edwards and Representative Gephardt are persuaded' by Powell," Dean said in Iowa this weekend. "'What I have an objection to is voting in favor of the resolution and then coming out here and kind of pretending in Iowa you're against the war.'" LINK

Dean certainly is familiar with the accusation that his own stance on the war has shifted uncomfortably. He continued: "Dean said it was disingenuous for Democrats who voted for a resolution authorizing unilateral use of force in Iraq to criticize Bush's war posture while campaigning for president."

"'I think there are a lot of folks dancing around on this one because they voted for the resolution and now they're trying to figure out what else to say,' Dean said."

Dean also is Iowa today, addressing an American government class at Scott Community College in Bettendorf and meeting with local activists in Davenport.

He will be in Spartanburg, SC on Thursday, and as previously Noted, will be back in Iowa on February 17.

Kucinich

All indications are that Rep. Dennis Kucinich will either announce a presidential candidacy or establish a presidential exploratory committee by the end of this week. People close to him say he'd run a low-maintenance, high-energy campaign modeled after Paul Wellstone's initial run for US Senate. They say he'd stress "security" first — economic and national defense — highlight his anti-war credentials and speak truth to labor's power.

As we've been saying for weeks, many top labor officials in Iowa are salivating over his expected announcement.

A brief, unscientific survey of Ohioans this weekend found exactly no one who hadn't heard of Kucinich nor had a moderate, measured opinion of him. Kucinich is both beloved and hated by Cleveland residents from his short tenure as mayor; he was elected in 1977. Some blame him for bankrupting the city. Others say he stood for principle against mean creditors and a power-hungry city council.

Now, what will the rest of the world think?

Sharpton

Rev. Al Sharpton's Iowa schedule today and tomorrow has him meeting with IFL President Mark Smith, Iowa Steelworkers President John Campbell, and other luminaries.

Yesterday, Sharpton preached in Chicago. "[The] man known affectionately as 'the Rev. Al' launched into a nearly hour-long sermon on civil rights and black empowerment. But not before he made a comment on what it was like to speak in his first Catholic church." LINK

"'Someone asked me what my thoughts were of speaking in a Catholic church with a white priest, ' Sharpton said. ' And I said, "Father Pfleger is white?"'"

"His message was punctuated with humor, urgency and the cadence of his two mentors — New York pastor Adam Clayton Powell and Chicago's Rev. Jesse Jackson."

Politics

Labor leaders remain peeved at House Majority Leader Tom Delay for affixing his name to a National Right To Work foundation solicitation accusing unions of leveraging their political power to the detriment of national security. Delay's office says a staffer made the decision and Delay has disavowed the matter.

Today, AFL-CIO President John Sweeney will send a letter of response. It reads, in part: "To stoop to the kind of rhetoric you used in order to raise funds for a right wing, anti-worker organization is a vile act. I ask that you recant these statements and apologize to the patriotic Americans who belong to our nation's unions."

Roll Call 's Keller reports on the decreasing likelihood that the US Supreme Court will have "ample time to review" the McCain-Feingold-Shays-Meehan case before its term ends in June, leaving a muddle about how the rules will apply this cycle.

Tom Edsall profiles newest FEC addition Ellen Weintraub. LINK

Note to Karen Dunn: next time the Senator is in Manhattan, it just might be the right time to finally do that The Wall Street Journal ed board (maybe on a day John Fund isn't around … ).

Surely you don't want them to keep writing editorials with sentences such as this (with which the Senator would surely take issue): "If you're Hillary Clinton, and your ultimate goal is a single-payer health-care system, a rapidly expanding open-ended entitlement program is just the ticket. The last thing you want is a modernized, market-driven Medicaid program that actually works."

Speaking of the Clinton family: we finally got around to reading Jim Fallow's Atlantic Monthly interview with 42; totally a must-read if you are into the Clinton psyche.

Fallows does a wonderful job of thinking things through with a bit of access to the guy.

Classic Fred Dicker column says the New York GOP is coming after Hill and Chuck, and the the New York Post notches another Pataki-could-replace-Cheney mention.

Best wishes from everyone at The Note to blushing bride Dorothea Jean Lynch. LINK

Democratic National Committee chairman Terry McAuliffe visits his 50th state today, and it might strike some of you as surprisingly close to home: Delaware.

Sounds like McAuliffe's birthday, which was yesterday, will be celebrated by the DNC with a birthday fundraiser on February 18.

Helen Dewar on Sunday looked at what Democrats will have at stake in the 2004 Senate races: more seats than Republicans (unlike last cycle), the seats of both of their Senate leaders, and bunch of very vulnerable Southern seats, including two that may be vacated by presidential candidates. And Democratic prospects in the House look equally dubious. LINK

Even so, Roll Call 's Cillizza reports that six House freshmen, including five Republicans, ended 2002 in some serious debt.

Physicians in California, according to the San Francisco Chronicle, are "fleeing" HMOs in droves. Many have dropped Medicare, too. LINK

The Tallahassee Democrat looks at the "new" Florida Democratic Party. LINK

Vote-swapping apparently is not patently illegal after all. At least yet. LINK

People versus the powerful, red versus white … "Al Gore receiving the first bottle of Kluge Estate New World Red from Patricia Kluge at the wine's debut at The Four Seasons restaurant." LINK

Bush Administration Strategy/Personality

The New York Times ' Hulse writes up the president's Greenbrier remarks with a cushy Washington dateline. LINK

Looks like the bureau took you up on that offer, eh, Will? LINK