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News summary

We were going to announce that The Note, along with Fauquier and Anne Arundel County schools, is opening two hours late today, but in a moment of calm after the affirmative action storm, there doesn't seem to be a whole heck of a lot going on today.

President Bush will pay a closed-press visit to US soldiers wounded in Afghanistan over at Walter Reed Army Medical Center, then head to Camp David for the weekend.

Democratic Senators Daschle and Kennedy are hosting a day-long civil rights forum on Capitol Hill today to keep picking at the GOP's Trent Lott scab, trying to generate some University of Michigan impetigo, and as part of their warm-up for their respective pre-State of the Union speeches.

Meanwhile, the Senate continues to slog through the budget.

Half of the Democratic presidential six-pack — Gov. Howard Dean, Rep. Dick Gephardt, and Senator John Kerry — will appear in Iowa this weekend, with the big draw being their speeches at the Linn County Democrats' "sustaining dinner" Saturday night.

But while everyone's focused on that main event, and it could be a big deal, don't forget that the three candidates have scheduled a series of events around the state all weekend.

The Democratic presidential field also may grow by one today. According to a senior aide to former one-term Senator Carol Moseley-Braun of Illinois, around 1:00 p.m. ET today, Moseley-Braun will reveal, via written statement, the course of her exploration of her future. She'll spend the rest of her day giving interviews, explaining why she's either running for Senate or thinking about running for President, or quitting politics, or something else.

If Moseley-Braun forms a presidential exploratory committee, she'd be part of a race that features, for the first time, two nationally known African-American politicians competing for the nomination of a major political party. (She wouldn't be the first black female member of Congress to run for president — that honor, of course, goes to Rep. Shirley Chisholm.)

We'll engage in our usual complete humility and say we have no idea what Moseley-Braun's potential entrance into the race might mean. We do know that Democrats chattering about this yesterday tended to be glad that she's apparently not seeking her old Senate seat, but also were pretty eye-rolling about the prospect of her entrance into the presidential field.

For more on this, see below.

This pre-weekend calm is just the lull before the storm of major political events and fiscal legislating coming up in the next two weeks, with Monday's Martin Luther King holiday (key for both parties, what with Republicans still dealing with après Lott and the Democrats who want to be president all heavily pitching African American voters); Tuesday's NARAL cattle call in DC, featuring the entire Democratic six-pack (would Senator Moseley-Braun get a last-minute invite, we wonder?); and of course, the source of the real breath-holding: the State of the Union, which by next Tuesday will only be one week away.

In the trial-balloon era of 43, it won't be long now before we see lots of stories replete with:
-- Karen Hughes sightings in Washington, along with muffled hints (as reporters take liberties with supposedly off-the-record stuff) that some of the "regular" speechwriters don't like Karen's parachuting in;
-- mentions of speechwriter Mike Gerson working (still!) unnoticed at White House-area Starbucks;
-- mentions of Bush adviser Mark McKinnon's salt-and-pepper beard;
-- accounts of senior State Department officials familiar with Secretary Powell's thinking about how Powell fought heroically and craftily to get the speech where it should be on his issues, and wasn't able to get everything he wanted, but then nevertheless saluted smartly and plans to help sell the president's plan;
-- hints about how much there will be in the speech on Social Security and Medicare;
-- last-minute meaningless journalistic competition to figure out which "real people" will sit with the First Lady in the box, and which of those folks will get mentioned in the speech (we say bring back Lenny Skutnick); and
-- tick-tocky stuff on how the administration plans to sell the speech, beyond POTUS travel.

All we know now is that we keep hearing the speech is going to be VERY heavy on national security, and much lighter on domestic policy. Percentages being thrown around on this very day are in the 65-35 range.

Big Casino Budget Politics

A very gloomy day for the Bush budget-and-tax-cut team in the last place they would want it: The Daily Diary of the American Dream, a/k/a the The Wall Street Journal .

David Rogers gets all ominous and foreshadowy in his write-up of the Senate budget wrangling. First, he deals with the education money: " … the Republican strategy could come to haunt the party leadership, if it raises expectations at the local level and then must back down because of difficulty in implementing the offsetting cuts."

"Republican leaders already are committed to a 1.6% across-the-board cut to help pay for farm aid and efforts to improve state and local elections operations. The education amendment would boost the cuts needed to 2.9% — and could pose a huge problem for House and Senate Appropriations committees when they reconcile all the numbers."

And the Journal's "Washington Wire" says, "'Undoubtedly, the number will go up' beyond the White House's $674 billion, 10-year estimate of revenue losses, says a top congressional analyst. The nonpartisan Joint Tax Committee's revenue-loss figure will be the basis for debate on the president's plan. A higher number will stoke skepticism among Senate deficit hawks in both parties."

The Wall Street Journal 's John D. McKinnon's detailed look at the dividend tax cut is tonally skeptical of its benefits.

And in a separate story with Mr. Hitt, the Journal team leads: "Business lobbyists are taking a closer look at President Bush's proposal to eliminate taxes on investment dividends, and some are getting cold feet … "

"But uncertainty about the proposal's consequences is hampering efforts to build momentum. The reason has to do with how the dividend changes interact with existing breaks in the code."

"Although Republicans have stuck with White House spending targets so far, pressures to breach them persist," the Washington Post 's Morgan writes. "For outnumbered Democrats, yesterday's debate provided a chance to stake out positions on homeland security and education, which they believe will be popular with voters next year." LINK

Probably the biggest budget question out there for the next month is how much the White House thinks it can save in health care reform, so keep your green-eyeshaded eyes peeled for any hints on that, like this tidbit from the Journal's "Wire:" "To save $1 billion annually in Medicare costs, the administration wants to reduce payments to physicians for the few outpatient medications the program covers, including cancer drugs. Meanwhile, advocates for the elderly promise war if Bush proposes a new drug benefit only for senior citizens' private-insurance plans, but not for traditional Medicare."

Paul Krugman (using an unfortunate "drunkard" metaphor) does a greatest hits column on deficits, tax cuts, Bush's Trifecta, interest rates, and Glenn Hubbard's textbook. LINK

Another smart Bush critic, Michael Kinsley, declares, "Bush, in a funny way, seems to be a man of ideas. He doesn't have a lot of them himself, but hand him one and he'll run with it, undeterred by opposition, or by subsequent evidence and logic. He has the unreflective person's immunity from irony, that great killer of intellectual passion. Ask him to reconcile his line on Iraq with his line on North Korea and he just gets irritated. Tell him he can't be for tax simplification and offer a Rube Goldberg contraption like this at the same time and he'll say, 'Oh, yeah — just watch me.'" LINK

The Washington Post editorial page takes on Mitch Daniels' bias against hyperventilating. "Mr. Daniels has a reasonable point when it comes to the deficits in the short run. In historical terms, the current deficits aren't that bad." But "[t]he bigger problem lies in what the administration is — or, more importantly, isn't — doing in terms of containment." Between the new tax cuts, Social Security, rising health care costs, fixing the alternative minimum tax, and calling on the Senate to hold the line on spending, well, "[a]l that may not be cause for hyperventilation, but it does take your breath away." LINK

The Michigan Case/Affirmative Action

The Washington Post 's Allen and Lane seem to have exclusive details on former Stanford University Provost Condoleezza Rice's role in helping to "persuade President Bush to publicly condemn race-conscious admissions policies at the University of Michigan." LINK

"Some aides felt Bush had been presented with a no-win situation, and said they felt besieged from the left and right yesterday."

And Bush got a lot of help from another quarter: "Bush's remarks, drafted by his speechwriting office, were heavily edited by a close adviser, Karen P. Hughes."

The New York Times ' Supreme Court reporter is a very smart woman, but we wonder if the vacationing Rick Berke thinks she is professionally qualified to make this lead judgment: "As an example of political stage-management, the Bush administration's handling of its Supreme Court brief in the Michigan affirmative action case was masterly, impressive even by the standards of a White House unusually skilled at spin control." LINK

But we do LOVE how she elevates Peter, Dan, and Tom over her own medium: " … by the time his solicitor general, Theodore B. Olson, actually submitted the administration's briefs late tonight as the clock approached a midnight filing deadline at the court, the briefs were a fading second-day story and there was hardly anyone still on duty — certainly not the television news anchors — to notice that the reality of its legal argument diverged substantially from the rhetoric of the president's prime-time statement."

The story argues somewhat counterintuitively that Bush was more conservative in his press statement than was the brief filed by the Solicitor General.

The Detroit News has a slew of articles about the brief. LINK

The Economy

For really serious insider players (the kind who think that the Regency isn't good enough for a power breakfast), the contest to see who gets the newly open New York Fed job (the second most powerful slot after the one held by Mr. Andrea Mitchell ) is the hot ballgame for awhile. LINK

ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary

Calling Chris Black!

Teresa Heinz gave a two-hour interview to the Boston Herald. The Herald chooses to lead with the fact that Heinz changed her voter registration from Republican to Democrat yesterday, "and promised she won't be shy about speaking her mind as her husband, Senator John F. Kerry, pursues the presidency." LINK

We choose to lead with this: "She said she has no fears about the press uncovering skeletons in her own closet, but hedged on Kerry, whom she married in 1995."

"'I don't know about John because I wasn't there. I know about my life, it's basically an open book. I don't know all about his life, obviously. But I think people have kind of screened him a lot, too, particularly in this town. Do I sleep at night worried about anything? No.'"

More from the interview: "Heinz … said she switched parties because she was offended by GOP smear tactics and the party's 'rigid' right-wing orthodoxy."

"'I'm not afraid to say what I believe,' said Heinz. 'Do I go out to either offend or shock people? No. But some people are surprised when a — quote — spouse, particularly a woman, has opinions. But, you know, women have been told to shut up for centuries — because they didn't go to school, because they didn't know how to read and write.'"

"She described former President George Bush as a close personal friend … "

"She confirmed she might tap the couple's vast personal fortune, estimated in the $600 million range, if a political rival launched a damaging personal attack on Kerry such as questioning his patriotism."

"She predicted she would be an activist first lady, lobbying for a Department of Wellness that would stress preventive health. She would also invite spouses from across the country to the White House for bi-monthly meetings to encourage public service."

"Heinz said she considered registering as an independent, but Pennsylvania's closed presidential primary laws would make it impossible for her to vote for Kerry there."

Stay and fight, indeed. Amidst the Senate skirmishing over the budget, looky here, says the New York Times : "Fifty Republicans were present — all but Senator Chuck Hagel of Nebraska — and not one defected. The Democratic presidential hopefuls John Kerry of Massachusetts and John Edwards of North Carolina missed the vote." LINK

With three Senators and one House member having announced their candidacies for president, tracking missed votes could become almost a full-time job. Thanks to the Raleigh News & Observer's Wagner, who has this today: "Senator John Edwards' presidential politicking Thursday led him to miss Senate votes for the first time since announcing his candidacy. The North Carolina Democrat was in Alabama raising money as the Senate debated four amendments to a major spending bill pending in the chamber." LINK

"Votes on the amendments — two apiece related to homeland-security and education financing — were all fairly close, but Edwards' presence would not have changed the outcome."

"Still, some Democrats groused."

"U.S. Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, another Democrat seeking the party's 2004 nomination, was also absent."

"But U.S. Senator Joe Lieberman, a Connecticut Democrat who's eyeing the White House, too, managed to make the votes."

The Wall Street Journal 's Jackie Calmes taps John Weaver's phone (apparently) to get this: "At least five presidential rivals — Rep. Gephardt, Sens. Lieberman, Kerry and Edwards, and former Vermont Gov. Dean — have contacted John Weaver about a 2004 campaign role. Republican-turned-Democrat Weaver was strategist for McCain's 2000 nomination bid that threatened Bush but ran out of money."

"The prize: Independent voters who flocked to McCain's 'Straight Talk' campaign — and still support him. Lieberman used the phrase in this week's campaign announcement. Friday, former Senator Gary Hart joins McCain for a 'Straight Talk' forum in Arizona; the two are longtime friends."

The "Wire" also has this: "ORGANIZED LABOR mulls a 2004 get-out-the-vote drive — but for which Democrat?"

"The AFL-CIO invites longtime ally Gephardt to address its winter executive meeting. But Dean creates buzz with a well-received speech accepting the union's first Paul Wellstone award, for backing worker organizing. His health-care pitch has appeal for unionists weighing a 2004 choice."

"Unions are expected to seed with $20 million a tax-exempt organization that former AFL-CIO political director Steve Rosenthal will unveil next month. Its aim: to boost turnout among women, African-Americans and Latinos in a dozen states. 'I don't care who the Democratic nominee is,' he says, since any Democrat in the field would be better than Bush."

"He adds, 'My question would be, "Who can win?"'"

Feel like playing "Design Your Own Presidential Nominee?" Some Democrats out there are wishing they could piece together a presidential candidate from the best each member of the current field has to offer. Now that she's officially neutral, listen to what top Daschle strategist Anita Dunn would take from each of the rest of her party's presidential pack to build the perfect Robo-Candidate in her talk with Mark Halperin on ABCNEWS Radio's Here's the Point, starting Sunday at: LINK

A Boston Globe op-ed author offers the following more-than-a-grain of truth: "I always prefer the ones who aren't running. The minute someone declares he or she is not running for president, I immediately wish the person would reconsider. Not running for president makes whoever's not doing it seem extremely presidential — much more so than actually being president." LINK

The author — who, it turns out, does have a favorite philosopher — goes on to note, "I had no idea that philosophy was so important until watching presidential hopeful John Edwards stumble during a recent interview on ABC's 'This Week.' Things were going along just fine until Edwards was asked to name his favorite philosopher, at which point he hemmed and hawed and then quickly changed the subject before it could become blatantly obvious that he had no favorite philosopher and therefore was completely unprepared to run the country."

Moseley-Braun

As we suggested in this space a whole news cycle ago, and as Noted above, yes, former Senator Carol Moseley-Braun plans to spend the next several weeks consulting with friends, fundraisers and family. Yes, about her political future.

The Rev. Al Sharpton's statement to The Note, "Ms. Braun has been saying this for months and I welcome everyone to 'explore' ways to make America a better place. We are moving full-speed ahead with our exploratory efforts."

Jeff Zeleny quotes Donna Brazile: "'The Democratic Party is running on the same tank of gas we had in 1992. We have not broadened the electorate,' said Donna Brazile, a party official who managed Al Gore's campaign in 2000. 'She could excite the Democratic base in ways that it has not been excited.'" LINK

Iowa

Mike Glover's just getting started. LINK

In addition to Saturday night's main event in Marion, which will kick off at 7:00 p.m. ET, Mr. Daley reminds us that the Iowa Democratic Party's State Central Committee will meet at the state party HQ on Fleur (another measure of a true Invisible Primary fan: do you know how to pronounce Fleur?) Drive at 12 noon ET Saturday, and that Gephardt and Dean will speak.

Dean also will address a group of Democratic women activists in Des Moines in Des Moines on Saturday, and have coffee with Democrats at Gwen's Restaurant in Lisbon on Sunday.

Kerry will host a breakfast for party activists in Des Moines that day, as well as a lunch in Iowa City, and attend a house party in Dubuque on Sunday.

SOUTH CAROLINA

It's tough to imagine the South Carolina Democratic party without Dick Harpootlian (for us AND for Tucker Eskew), but "[a]fter leading Democrats through one of their toughest election losses ever in South Carolina, … Harpootlian says he may step down. Harpootlian told The (Charleston) Post and Courier for an article Friday that the Post is too consuming." LINK

"Charleston County Democratic executive committeeman Waring Howe of Mount Pleasant said he was '99.5 percent sure' Harpootlian would not run again but would stay in office until the May convention, where Democrats hope to conduct a nationally televised debate involving all their presidential hopefuls."

"State party leaders need to raise the $2 million to pay for the primary … "

"Howe said only one person has been stumping for the job — Margaret Feagin of Columbia, head of the state Democratic Women's Council."

Another blurb has this: "Harpootlian said he doesn't think the flag issue is 'a litmus test.' Blacks make up a large share of the Democratic primary vote in South Carolina, he notes." http://www.thestate.com/mld/thestate/news/politics/4965560.htm

Edwards

A decent media ride this cycle for Senator Edwards, of course, playing off of the president's medical liability speech.

Some of the bigger Edwards guns got rolled out to help handle all the inquiries, including this in the New York Times : "'They're making a huge mistake if they think regular Americans are going to take the side of the insurance companies as opposed to the side of victims who have been badly hurt and are looking for someone to fight for them in court,' said Jonathan Prince, an adviser to Mr. Edwards." LINK

"Edwards announced Thursday that he plans to offer an amendment to the same spending bill that would postpone a Bush administration decision to relax clean-air rules on aging coal-fired power plants and refineries … The promised amendment, which drew applause from environmentalists, would prevent changes from taking effect until the nonpartisan National Academy of Science completes a study of the effect on pollution levels." LINK

"The issue, which Lieberman has also supported, could come to a head as early as next week."

Gephardt

Rep. Dick Gephardt's "heartless" comment about Bush's support for medical malpractice liability reform actually topped trial lawyer-turned-Senator John Edwards' statement in USA Today . LINK

Check the tape library for that '88 gymnast ad, because this theme is going to be around for at least a bit. The Wall Street Journal 's lead editorial on medical liability reform trots out this: "[W]ay back in the 98th Congress, an up-and-comer named Dick Gephardt introduced a bill to allow for early recovery of economic losses, loss of income and legal fees. But if such a settlement were offered, 'the patient would lose the option of going to court and seeking compensation for pain and suffering,' as Mr. Gephardt put it at the time."

"The Democrat may have understood that this process would be especially useful for low-income plaintiffs who need financial help quickly and can't wait for their lawyer to gamble on the punitive-damage lottery (and then take 40% of the winnings). Maybe Mr. Gephardt should debate this issue with former trial lawyer and fellow Democratic Presidential nominee John Edwards on the campaign trail."

Graham

Senator Bob Graham will be in Florida for the weekend, has a press event Monday, and then heads to Haiti, returning in time for the State of the Union address.

We are told to expect more pungent presidential language on Monday …

Build him up … tear 'em down. The Orlando Sentinel's Silva, who has written glowingly (and fairly and excellently at the same time) about Graham's favorable presidential prospects, now dumps a dollop of reality onto his construct, noting that Graham trails in the big Gallup poll. LINK

And good god, Graham people! Does the fact that you're not exploring avenues (or at least, you're doing so extremely quietly) in New Hampshire and Iowa mean you're thinking of skipping both?!?!?!

As one looks for the rationale for the possible Graham candidacy, one runs smack into the fact that the still-emerging Bush Medicare/Medicaid reform plan is going to have attempts at cost-savings in it, and cost-savings can come from (there are no good options here) patients, health care providers, or insurance companies.

Robert Pear writes this up: "In a reversal, the Bush administration has ruled that managed care organizations can limit and restrict coverage of emergency services for poor people on Medicaid," — and Senator Graham is cited throughout as the Democratic counterweight, coming at least as much in anger as sadness. LINK

Kerry

Seth Gitell's excellent memo on Kerry and centrism reminds us that aside from, say, the zip codes surrounding 14 Plympton Street in Cambridge, the state of Massachusetts isn't incredibly liberal.

"Fifty-one percent of state voters are unenrolled independents, and no Democratic governor has won election since Michael Dukakis did it in 1986." LINK

What does this have to do with Kerry? Well, "If John Kerry wants to be president, then he must convince people that he's not just another Massachusetts liberal."

"The reality of Massachusetts politics is that the state has changed. Kerry knows that, and so do the founders of the Massachusetts DLC. For Kerry's sake, he needs the rest of the country to realize this as well."

And Kerry has been known to make these very same arguments.

And you'd think that three Republican governors in a row might tell people something …

Lieberman

"Senator Joe Lieberman's strict observance of the Jewish Sabbath may cause minor inconveniences during his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination," the AP's Lester writes, "but the Connecticut senator and his staff expect it will pose few significant obstacles to waging an aggressive campaign." LINK

His bigger hurdles, says Will, "could be addressing such issues as the Middle East, where he wants to develop a position on the region that both Jews and non-Jews see as fair and independent," and also "[persuading] Democratic primary voters to support him."

"Lieberman's logistical obstacle with his Sabbath schedule became quickly apparent as local Democrats began scheduling a series of 'cattle calls' that occur mostly on the weekends."

"Democratic activists in states with early presidential contests like Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina all said they will work with Lieberman to make it possible to participate in their events."

"In South Carolina, Democratic chairman Dick Harpootlian said party officials are looking for ways to accommodate Lieberman when the party holds its annual meeting in early May, with a Jefferson-Jackson Day dinner on a Friday night and a candidates' forum on Saturday."

Cultural Sensitivity Memo to the Washington Times : Lieberman would never throw his yarmulke anywhere, much less into a ring. Jews don't throw their yarmulkes. They treat them with respect. And Lieberman doesn't wear one outside the synagogue. LINK

Sharpton

Might we hold in our hands one of the many definitive Al Sharpton profiles?

The gist of Garance Franke-Ruta's American Prospect piece is this: Sharpton is incredibly smart, always underestimated but often destructive to his own ends, driven almost totally by ambition, and seems not to realize how the Brawley affair forever killed his credibility with white liberals everywhere.

It's pretty harsh, though written without excessive animus, and its distribution, hopefully, will provide ample opportunity for Sharpton to respond to some of the charges.

Key passages:

"Power is what Sharpton is after, and he's not afraid to admit it. He wants a seat at the national Democratic Party table." LINK

"Sharpton is trying to combine populism with an identity politics that has often proven divisive."

"Sharpton's characterization of the battle between the DLC and the liberal wing of the Democratic Party as a war of southerners against black voters and Jackson is a convenient misreading of history. It also gives Sharpton an outsized role in the ongoing battle of left versus right that defines the modern Democratic Party. In New York, however, Sharpton's wars haven't been against the DLC; they've been against some of the most left-wing liberals running anywhere."

"But beyond Sharpton's liberal politics and preacher's way with words are two personal qualities likely to have a powerful impact on the race ahead: He is notoriously sloppy with his facts and he consistently construes political differences people have with him as personal attacks. More than anything else, it is these qualities that have kept Sharpton from achieving Jackson's stature, and that may make his current bid for the presidency so potentially disastrous for the Democrats."

"A strong showing by Sharpton in even a few primaries — thanks to low voter turnout, for example — could lead to nightmarish complications for the eventual Democratic nominee. DLC Democrats will no doubt demand that the nominee repudiate Sharpton, but the reverend will play any such move as an attack on the party's absolutely essential core of black voters. Allying with Sharpton could alienate white moderates and swing voters, but failing to seek his support will likely lead to a major blowup with Sharpton that could ultimately drive down black support and lead to lingering intraparty divisions."

Meanwhile, The Forward reports on Sharpton's decision to try and seek campaign contributions from Jews. LINK

Page Six takes a break from Sharpton today, but Rush and Molloy rush in to fill the gap, with an item leading with: "The Rev. Al Sharpton is demanding an apology from an NAACP chapter head who trash-talked him on CNN." LINK

The item concludes by touting Sharpton's trip to New Hampshire today.

Dodd

Senator Chris Dodd on Imus said he'd make a presidential decision within the next month. And then he immediately mentioned his very young daughter who wants her daddy. You be the judge.

Biden

Senator Joe Biden "hasn't ruled out a presidential run, but he says he's more interested in focusing on his duties as top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee even if it means he's too late to develop an effective campaign." LINK

"Biden said if he were to enter the race now, he would lose his ability to negotiate with Secretary of State Colin Powell and others in the Bush administration on international affairs, including an impending war with Iraq … Biden said if he ran for president his relationship with the administration would change."

Stremsky

New Hampshire's Kenneth Stremsky has created a blog. LINK

One of the first posts: "I have not had a girlfriend since I was 12 years old. She dumped me for a soccer player."

We hear you, Ken.

Politics

The good news for Frist chief of staff Mitch Bainwol is that today's National Journal profile is another positive clip for the Bainwol family album, portraying Mitch as wonderful, smart, nice to small children and animals, and, as the kids say, all that.

Jack Oliver even says Mitch has "a creative ability to think outside the box," a very creative quote if ever there was one.

The only negative we see is that the story's headline, "When 'Savvy Doesn't Mean 'Sneaky,'" is exactly what Mitch was secretly planning to title his autobiography, so this kind of ruins that.

The story makes clear that this newly most powerful of Capitol Hill aides is a lame duck of sorts, since he "is not expected to remain with Frist for long," what with those millions of dollars left on the table after duty called and he folded the Bainwol Group even before the raised-lettering embossed stationary was dry.

And those of you looking to write a Washington buddy picture for Hollywood might want to consider this raw material: "During the campaign, Bainwol kept up his habit of staying close with his adversaries — in this case, Jim Jordan, the DSCC's executive director. In an unusual arrangement in politics, Bainwol and Jordan would talk occasionally, sometimes over beers, to share intelligence."

Sounds like it is time to bring in David Garth and Bill Knapp for a big ad buy: "Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg's job approval rating dropped sharply in recent months as he moved to address the city's looming fiscal crisis, according to a New York Times Poll that found that for the first time since Mr. Bloomberg took office more than half of New Yorkers now disapprove of his handling of the job." LINK

Of course, it IS the second-toughest job in America.

And the Mayor may be alienating some of his constituents, but is still good at making friends with the state Republican Party, having donated $500,000 in October 2002. LINK

The New York Post , while chiding Hollywood player and anti-SUV Detroit Project co-founder Ari Emanuel for favoring gas-guzzling private planes, takes the time to identify him as the brother of Rep. Rahm Emanuel.

Which must bring childhood memories flooding back, not to mention Elisabeth Bumiller's 1997 Times Magazine piece, wherein Rahm is identified as the "most famous" of the brothers. Those freshmen already feeling overshadowed by Congressman Emanuel should take heart. LINK

Far be it for The Note to get directly involved in the Sunday morning wars. We have enough trouble fighting off "Washington Wrap."

But you should know that George Stephanopoulos has an interview with Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld this Sunday on "This Week."

We would tell you it's a "Sunday morning exclusive," or Rumsfeld's "first Sunday morning interview," but, well, Rumsfeld is also expected to be on "Fox News Sunday" as well. (George DOES have a Sunday morning exclusive with Senator Edward Kennedy on health care, and just maybe another one up his sleeve.)

Which makes us wonder what exactly was going on when last week, two shows that air/tape at precisely the same time — "FNS" and "Meet the Press," could have said what they said about their simultaneously aired interviews with Dr/Sen/Leader Frist.

Tony Snow: "In his first Sunday morning interview as Senate majority leader, we will ask Senator Bill Frist how Republicans intend to push the president's agenda on taxes, medical care, race relations, Iraq, North Korea — you name it, we'll discuss it."

Tim Russert: "With us, in his first Sunday morning interview, the new majority leader of the United States Senate, Dr. Bill Frist, Republican of Tennessee."

We are all for hype and hyperbole, but are we missing something here?

The answer, just maybe, comes from "This Week" executive producer Jon Banner, who says that this is all perfectly understandable and defensible, since (let's see if we have this straight) for an ordinary viewer who simply watches one show, straight through, without flipping, as they watch the interview occur, it is the first Sunday morning interview with that person that they are experiencing.

Quite a stick-together fraternity those Sunday morning people have.

The Daily News' Thomas DeFrank discusses Trent Lott and how he is dealing with not being Majority Leader. LINK

"Friends say the 61-year-old Mississippian is still extremely bitter toward President Bush and Vice President Cheney for helping engineer his demise and believes that several colleagues who pledged their support secretly conspired with coup plotters."

"Nevertheless, Lott has sworn off revenge — at least for now." And he allegedly even posed for pix with the Frist interns.

The No Child Left Behind (which actually IS acronymed NCLB in DOE-speak) deadline approaches.

As usual, we're concerned about our friends in New Hampshire: "The state Department of Education plans to start work this month with the Legislature to file compliance plans for the federal No Child Left Behind act." LINK

"Education Commissioner Nicholas Donohue plans to meet on Jan. 29 to develop the outline of financial and policy plans that will be sent to Washington this spring."

"No Child Left Behind requires states to set targets for achievement that bring all students up to pre-established standards. Those that fail to meet goals by 2012 will go through a series of steps meant to bring them into compliance."

To run for Zell Miller's Senate seat: CNN commentator Bob Barr? Former Atlanta Mayor Maynard Jackson? LINK

The Washington Times ' Z. Hallow writes up a study that suggests the Bush GOP's efforts to reach out to Hispanic voters has missed the mark. LINK

In order to do justice to the letter and the ensuing exchange, we'd need to run pretty much the whole story, so trust us when we tell you that if you care about California Republican politics, site of the latest political flare-up over race, you'll want to check this out: "A California Republican Party leader has called on the highest-ranking African American in the state GOP to stop 'parading' his race by complaining about 'how awful it is to be a black Republican.'" LINK

Bush Administration Strategy/Personality

What questions is The Note most often asked, you ask?

Well, there's "what's Marc Ambinder REALLY like?" And, "what do you feed all those monkeys doing all those Google searches?"

Plus, the all-too-common, "What's with the jones for David Rogers?"

But far and away the most common is, "Is Karl Rove really as influential and powerful as news stories suggest?"

The answers are: 1) find out for yourself; 2) unagi; 3) buy the paper and find out for yourself; and 4) he is MORE influential and powerful, actually, than the papers would lead you to believe.

A new book by two Texas journalists (one of two on Rove that will be before you shortly), however, might actually do the impossible and OVERSTATE Rove's power.

"Karl Rove thinks it. George W. Bush does it." "He is Co-President," write Wayne Slater and James C. Moore in "Bush's Brain: How Karl Rove Made George W. Bush Presidential." LINK

In their 400 pages from John Wiley & Sons, the two men go deep and far into Rove's Texas past, with complex tales of the Texas Department of Agriculture, the Young Republicans, the 1986 campaign, and much more.

If you like Dick Morris cameos, lots of "Rove Knew … or Rove Understood" clauses (including Woodwardian accounts of "private" moments involving Rove, Mark McKinnon, and George Bush), or if you just NEED to know everything about L'histoire Du Rove" this is the tome for you.