Note Archives, updated weekly.

E-mail us: Tips, Compliments, Complaints.

News summary

Just kidding.

Rather than romping on the slopes with the Bills (Clinton and Gates) and the Johns (Ashcroft and Chambers), we are right here in the BosWash corridor, witnessing the transformation from "it's the economy, stupid" to "it's the economy, stupid — and don't forget health care" as the defining paradigm of our national politics starting today and for at least awhile.

Why so, you ask? Because of the confluence of tightening purse strings among average Americans, HMOs, and state governments, and Mr. Brownstein's pet cause: the crisis of the uninsured.

And don't forget that the third aphorism on the wall of the war room of the most successful Democratic presidential campaign effort The Note can recollect ("change versus more of the same"), which is the facile, macro argument that any out-of-power party can make against an incumbent in good times or bad.

George W. Bush's 2000 version was "they haven't led, we will," and it proved effective. All elections, apparently, are about change, the future, and the economy (and Bush-Cheney are working on all of those).

But many of our recent elections have also been at least in part about the gigantic topic of health care. And the president — who ran on prescription drugs, Medicare reform, and a patients bill of rights, and is a "promises made, promises kept" kind of guy — is about to step up to the plate on Most Everything Medical.

The crux of the problem is how to restrain the explosion of health care costs, while extending coverage and treatment, and if you think those goals seem contradictory, welcome to Ira Magaziner's world of health care politics and policy.

Make no mistake about it: when the president's budget comes out, it will reflect the Gingrichian view that the deficit and health care problems can only be solved in tandem.

On health care and Social Security, the strongest point the president's party has to make is that Democrats, by generally opposing fundamental reform, are putting their heads in the sand about how to save the systems.

For championing change in these programs, the president deserves credit for political courage.

Unfortunately, at some point, with the Baby Boomer freight train coming down the tracks, "reform" involves lowering payments and/or benefits, and the administration, while punting on Social Security for now, is about to take on Medicare.

And at some point, being honest about costs and shared sacrifice (like transition costs and lowering the guaranteed minimum benefit for Social Security, and like cutting payments to providers or raising costs to those covered in Medicare or to the states) has to come to a head.

The Wall Street Journal 's often-underrated David Wessel writes the Big Casino must-read piece of the day, tying taxes, spending, health care, and deficits together in one clean sweep: "The coming debate over Medicare is crucial. Both parties want to meet the strong public demand to add prescription-drug coverage to the insurance program for the elderly. The president's advisers say he will use this carrot to get Congress to accept big changes to Medicare to slow the pace of spending increases and gird the program for the baby boomers' retirement. The fiscal risk is that Congress will add drug benefits, but not change the program — or that the changes won't actually work as expected."

"Republicans, with some exceptions, don't bother trying to persuade people that smaller government is a plus for the economy. And by pooh-poohing the harm that big deficits can do, they've discarded the easy-to-understand argument that government, like a family, needs to live within its means. They know tax cuts are the easiest sell."

"Democrats don't bother trying to persuade people that a bigger government — if bigger in the right places — is a good idea, or that the price for better schools, prescription drugs and safer airports may be higher taxes. Instead, they argue for spending more on popular programs and then lecture Republicans about deficits."

So while we wait for the budget and the medicine, for whatever reason, the White House keeps dribbling out sugar.

"With doctors dropping out of the program in droves, leaving seniors scrounging for care, the Bush administration announced on Wednesday a new commitment to halting further reductions in the fees physicians receive from the government for treating Medicare patients," writes the Los Angeles Times ' Kemper. LINK

"The announcement, coming as both houses of Congress are considering the issue, all but ensures that the payment cuts, scheduled to take effect March 1, will be canceled."

Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services chief Tom "Scully's remarks at a health policy conference … included a prediction that health-care issues — specifically, the Medicare prescription-drug benefit and tax credits for the uninsured — will top this year's domestic political agenda."

"He hinted at broader, long-lasting Medicare reforms to be proposed next week in President Bush's State of the Union address and, a few days later, in his budget for the next fiscal year."

"While Bush is committed to securing a prescription drug benefit for Medicare's 40 million senior and disabled beneficiaries, administration officials have said he also believes that the $270-billion program should be overhauled in a way that fosters competition in the health-care market and controls costs."

"Officials have declined to provide details, but the administration's proposals are likely to include a greater role for health maintenance organizations, as well as higher Medicare premiums for patients who do not join managed-care plans."

"The administration's position on Medicare payments to doctors has evolved significantly. Last year, the president's top health-care advisers said Bush could not support higher payments for Medicare providers as long as elderly patients lacked prescription drug coverage."

First Brother/Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida, along with his counterparts in Connecticut and Colorado, write to President Bush and HHS Secretary Thompson today: "The nation's governors and state legislatures are struggling to balance their budgets, and many have been asking for immediate state fiscal relief. Rather than seeking one-time relief from the federal government through FMAP (Federal Medical Assistance Percentage) increases or other measures, we would suggest it is time to review and fundamentally rewrite the nation's Medicaid law."

"We have welcomed the new spirit of cooperation between the administration, HHS and the states in addressing Medicaid issues. We applaud your efforts to grant the states new flexibility and opportunities for innovation through measures like the Health Insurance Flexibility and Accountability (HIFA) waiver process. Yet, Medicaid falls short in meeting the needs of our beneficiaries, and continues to maintain a chokehold on state budgets."

And they offer up a few suggestions.

President Bush himself has no public events today, but several health care speeches are being given in the nation's capital, including a marquee speech by one William Jefferson Clinton, who knows a thing or two about the political costs of trying to tackle this big problem, and two by Senator John Breaux.

In a speech to center-left health care advocacy groups at 11:00 am, the FPOTUS is expected to look to the past and the future and throw around, for the sake of discussion, some alternative proposals. No big news or new policy proposals are expected, however.

Breaux, the Democrat who would be at the center of any successful bipartisan, Bush-led effort to change the way Americans pay for and receive medical treatment, will speak first at the National Health Policy Conference at 9:00 am, and then at the US Conference of Mayors meeting at 10:30 am, and he previews his remarks on the Wall Street Journal 's op-ed page.

Breaux lays out some ideas for how to get to universal coverage, but seems to dilute his clarion call of urgency by saying, "This crisis in health care is a serious challenge that President Bush and Congress must face in coming years" — as opposed to, say, NOW.

The biggest splash on this issue amongst the Democratic presidential field was the Al Gore belly-flop in favor of single-payer. How The Note would have liked to see him run on that. But as far as those Democrats actually running for president are concerned, Gov. Howard Dean, with his call for universal health insurance, is the only one of the Six Pack who has made it a regular, detailed part of his stump speech.

Dean cites his record in Vermont, and his pathway, starting with kids, in heading toward full coverage. The other candidates mention the goal, but are a long way from offering detailed plans and making it a centerpiece of their platforms.

For a preview of how the health care wars could pan out, look no further than yesterday's move by the administration "rescinding a new policy that allowed managed care organizations to limit and restrict coverage of emergency services for poor people on Medicaid." LINK

"The abrupt pivot came a day after Republican and Democratic Senate aides protested restrictions on emergency room use at a meeting with administration health officials — and hours before a Democratic senator had planned to seek a Senate vote to try to overturn it. The shift also comes just a week before President Bush intends to ask Congress to make expensive and controversial changes to other aspects of federal health policy, notably Medicare, the other large public insurance program, which covers the elderly." LINK

Robert Pear, the Times man who started the ball rolling (as he so often does), gets these too-honest-for-his-own-good goods from Tom Scully, who really is one of the smartest people in the government: "'The Dec. 20 policy letter was very defensible. There's a lot of justification for giving states more flexibility. But we have a busy agenda on other health care issues this year, and it was not worth getting into a controversy over coverage of emergency services.'"

As if caving on this piece is going to make the looming, bigger battles easier.

The Wall Street Journal /GE poll says, "[B]y a 59%-32% margin, Americans say Medicare could add prescription-drug coverage without an overhaul of the entire program."

Again, with the details of the health care spending slowdowns still to come, the White House continues to ladle out the INCREASES, as per the Wall Street Journal : "Meanwhile, officials said that President Bush's new budget will propose $1.75 billion over five years to help the disabled move out of nursing homes and other institutions and into their communities … "

"Administration officials said the new proposal is designed to boost states' efforts to increase their use of home- and community-based settings to care for the disabled, which often are less expensive and more popular with individuals than nursing homes."

Let's see the off-sets, Mitch. We'll wait awhile, but we are close to hyperventilating here.

And the third co-equal branch is not going untouched: "The question of prescription drug costs, with its vexing political and economic tradeoffs, landed at the Supreme Court yesterday," reports the Washington Post 's Lane. "But after an hour of intense discussion, it seemed that the justices were no more eager to make those tradeoffs than Congress and the executive branch." LINK

The program, called Maine Rx, "would use the state's power as a massive purchaser of drugs under Medicaid, the federal health program for poor people, to make drug companies reduce prescription costs for everyone in Maine, poor or not." But, "[t]he drug industry says that Maine is effectively using its Medicaid clients as so many hostages to achieve a purpose Congress never contemplated when it set up Medicaid, and that Maine Rx is thus trumped by the Medicaid statute."

Even as the health care piece of the budget and economy is moving fast, the ECONOMY piece of the budget and economy remains a concern for the White House on many fronts.

Another day, another set of screaming polling data: "President Bush hit the road to promote his economic plan — and a new Wall Street Journal /NBC News poll shows he needs to do a much better job of it."

"The survey shows a 49% plurality of Americans now disapprove of Mr. Bush's handling of the economy, while fully 61% doubt the administration's economic package will do much to stimulate economic growth … "

"'He's got a lot of balls in the air, and none of them is going particularly well,' observes Republican pollster Robert Teeter, who conducts the Journal/NBC poll with his Democratic counterpart Peter Hart. Notwithstanding his party's midterm election triumph just two months ago, Mr. Hart adds, 'As he goes into the State of the Union, the [political] wind isn't at his back — it's in his face.'"

Print up new scorecards.

The Wall Street Journal 's trumpeted exclusive: "White House chief economist Glenn Hubbard, an architect of President Bush's recent tax-cut proposal, plans to step down by spring and likely will be succeeded by Harvard University economist Gregory Mankiw." (And so soon after getting his big Washington Post profile and Jon Weisman look at his arguably economically feasible/politically unfeasible theory about the double taxation of dividends … )

"If [Mankiw] is selected, some of his past writings may prove embarrassing for the administration. He has written widely that higher budget deficits can harm the economy. The White House, on the other hand, is arguing that tax cuts, which would balloon the federal deficit, won't boost interest rates."

And we're still waiting to see what kind of spokespeople for the economy Friedman and Snow will be, although we admire whoever is the confirmation sherpa for Snow, what with the clever roll-out of some of the vetting issues.

Dick Stevenson's New York Times ' write-up of the Rove lunch Formerly Known As The Sperling Breakfast leads thusly: "Karl Rove, the White House's senior political strategist, said today that President Bush was a populist whose call for the elimination of taxes on stock dividends was aimed at 'the little guy.'" LINK

"In a wide-ranging session with reporters, Mr. Rove suggested that the president ranked with Theodore Roosevelt as an environmentalist and predicted a close 2004 presidential race. He said the Republican Party had been strengthened by the controversy over Senator Trent Lott, and he played down his own reputation as the most powerful behind-the-scenes White House adviser, on both policy and politics, in generations."

"'I'm one voice among many around the senior staff table in the morning,' he said. 'This town can only operate successfully through myth, and one of the myths is that there has to be some Svengali-like person sitting in the White House.'"

Whenever SMIP (as The Note, with none of the apparent incredulity that Mr. Stevenson seems to be exhibiting, calls Mr. Rove — which is short for "Smartest Man in Politics") talks about 2004 in public (or, in this case, "public, but with no broadcasters present"), we listen: "Discussing politics, Mr. Rove said he expected the 2004 presidential race to be more like the tight election of 2000 than President Ronald Reagan's landslide re-election in 1984. He said the Democratic challenger would emerge from a tough primary fight strengthened, and that even the successful prosecution of any war would not be cause for overconfidence at the White House."

"'I see a very close election,' he said."

The New York Times ' Robin Toner has more Rove on abortion in her Roe round-up LINK , and the Washington Post gives it a separate story LINK , but can one of you please send us the whole transcript?

The Los Angeles Times gets at the "temperate" tone the White House tried to strike on the issue yesterday. LINK

The Washington Times gets an unnamed SAO saying that a ban on partial-birth abortions is now "'a slam-dunk if there ever was one.'" LINK

Ms. Connolly in the Washington Post breaks the news that Bush's newest appointee to the presidential Advisery Commission on AIDS and HIV is a Bob Jones University grad and former faculty member who once called AIDS the "gay plague." LINK

To curtain-raise Senate Democratic Leader Tom Daschle's Friday economic policy speech to the City Club of Cleveland, per a Daschle source, "in addition to critiquing the Bush 'stimulus' plan, he will offer his own economic stimulus plan — a plan that is fair, will create jobs, help states' fiscal crises, and will actually stimulate the economy without sinking America further into debt by giving away billions to millionaires."

"This speech is the second of three major policy speeches in a week by Senator Daschle as he steps up his critique of the grossly misplaced priorities of the Bush Administration. On Monday he and House Democratic Leader Pelosi will address these misplaced priorities in a speech to the National Press Club."

"Daschle is also doing a conference call with Democratic Governors Association chair Governor Locke (of Washington state) and Governor Napolitano (of Arizona) to discuss how the president's economic 'stimulus' plan impacts states facing budget crises." That call will take place this morning, details TBD.

Senator John Kerry will deliver a major foreign policy and national security speech today at Georgetown University's Healy Building at 12 noon. Kerry will say that "it is not a sign of weakness for the United States to work closely with other nations, but rather 'it amplifies America's voice and extends our reach' … 'The Bush administration's blustering unilateralism is wrong and even dangerous for our country.'" LINK

"The text attacks the Bush administration for alienating key allies, abandoning international agreements like the Kyoto Protocol on Global Warming, and ignoring its obligations to create peace and democratization proposals as ambitious as its war plans for Afghanistan and Iraq." LINK

(Speaking of which, did anyone else notice Kerry's clever use of a rhetorical device at the NARAL shindig the other night, in which he talked about what he would say to Bush in the presidential debates, leveraging one of his greatest strengths: the likelihood that Democrats will see him as the best equipped to face off mano-a-mano against 43?)

The new ABCNEWS/ Washington Post Democratic presidential horse race, testing only those candidates who have announced, shows Lieberman leading the pack with 27 percent, Gephardt at 14 percent, Edwards and Kerry basically tied at 11 percent and 10 percent, respectively, Sharpton at 7 percent, and Dean at 3 percent. LINK

Big Casino Budget Deficit

Retiring Senator Zell Miller (D) writes on the Wall Street Journal 's op-ed page in praise of federal government spending cuts: "It's no secret that I like this president. He's the right man and I want to support him. But federal spending has gone wild and someone must take the lead in stopping it. Most functions of government grew by at least 5% a year for each of the last four years. Some grew by twice that much. That's got to stop."

But after decrying politicians who say on the campaign trail that they want to cut spending but then don't do it while in office ("And yes, I'm guilty of not supporting them as I should have," he says of Senators McCain, Voinovich, Feingold, Gregg, and Craig), the fella offers up exactly ONE idea about how to start cutting: "[W]hy not start by abolishing vacant positions in every department except Defense and Homeland Security? Congress could set the example by cutting our own staff to show that we are willing to stop feeding the hungry beast."

Totally amazing.

The New York Times business section publishes one of those odd-duck C2 op-ed pieces making an across-the-board attack on the president's tax plan. LINK

The New York Times ' Norris continues to make the Bush dividend tax elimination plan more and more complicated by writing about it. Today's mind-numbing lead: "Investors who buy stock with borrowed money will find that the dividends they get will be taxable even after other dividends are no longer taxed, according to the Bush administration." LINK

And the story ends with Treasury Department official Greg Jenner showing vast flexibility: "'The statutory language is not written,' he said. 'We are learning a lot from people. The notion that this is fixed in stone is just not true. To the extent we find things we need to adjust, we will do it.'"

The new Fed stats on income inequality won't make selling the Bush tax plan to the liberal media or Senator Norm Coleman any easier. LINK

With the mayors already in town complaining of unfunded mandates and asking for more help, and the governors due here soon to sing from the same hymnal, the AP reminds us not to forget those all-powerful county officials: "Commissioners from financially strained counties criticized Congress today for delays in approving $3.5 billion that Washington had promised to help local governments brace for potential terrorist attacks." LINK

And some are from Texas. and some use military metaphors: "'It's like sending soldiers into battle without weapons or training,' said Kenneth A. Mayfield, a commissioner in Dallas County, Tex., and the president of the National Association of Counties. 'What a travesty.'"

The New York Times thumb-sucks through a long look at how four Western states are dealing with the tough economy and budget crunch. LINK

Tri-state area Republican governors grapple with budget problems: Pataki plans to tdo it without tax increases; Rowland with job cuts. LINK and LINK

SOTU

A group of Democratic Senators and mayors, including Senators Kennedy, Schumer and Corzine, will hold a press conference today at 10:30 am to "urge President Bush to address America's real priorities in his upcoming State of the Union Address," per the release, in the LBJ Room of the Capitol.

The Hotline's Chuck Todd looks ahead to the SOTU through the prism of the president's big full plate: "Think about some of the issues on the Bush's plate in the last 10 days … Gone is the laserlike focus of this president and his presidency."

"Unlike expectations for his previous big speeches, the press (and possibly the public) are not going to be looking for eloquence and demeanor. This time, far more focus is going to be given to the substance of the speech itself. No Bush speech has had that type of focus from the media since his campaign days. Whether he, his aides and his speechwriters are ready for such scrutiny is going to tell us a lot about the political resiliency of this president over the next two years."

ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary

Looks like Edwards, Kerry and Lieberman could be missing either a lot of votes or a lot of events and fundraisers in the Bill Frist Senate. Dr./Sen./Leader Frist sure likes to keep the Senate in session, and not (primarily, we firmly believe) to screw these Democratic wannabes, but just because he believes if there's work to be done, it has to get done. As a result, Lieberman yesterday had to cancel his first scheduled event in New Hampshire.

Getting time to get to Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, and getting all those California, New York, etc. fundraisers on the schedule is so tough, and to get them re-scheduled is even tougher (the logistics and the bruised feelings). But, get used to it.

And remember: after "landlord-tenant" and "mother-daughter," the most emotionally fraught and contentious relationship in the world is "presidential candidate's Senate scheduler-presidential candidate's campaign scheduler."

The New Republic's Lizza totally hits it out of the Invisible Primary park with a second-day must-read wrap of the NARAL Pro-Choice America event. His analysis of the speeches is first-rate, but IP enthusiasts are not going to want to miss a syllable of the more general stuff he weaves in. LINK

His lovely lead: "There is a weird respect among Washington journalists for presidential candidates who come before their most loyal supporters and insult them. In 1992, candidate Bill Clinton spoke before a black audience at a meeting of Jesse Jackson's Rainbow Coalition. Rapper Sister Souljah, who had spoken to the group the evening before, had recently told The Washington Post that blacks would be justified in killing whites. Clinton criticized her for those comments, angering his audience and insulting Jackson. The move cemented Clinton's reputation as a centrist Democrat who was not held hostage to his party's interest groups. The media cheered, and the phrase 'Sister Souljah moment' was born. In subsequent campaigns, George W. Bush won praise when he criticized House Republicans for trying to 'balance their budget on the backs of the poor,' while pundits swooned for John McCain when he said his party was bought and paid for by corporate special interests."

"So when the six Democratic presidential candidates spoke before a core Democratic interest group, NARAL Pro-Choice America, Tuesday night, one question that hung in the air of the Omni Shoreham ballroom was, which Democrat would 'Sister Souljah" NARAL? The answer was nobody."

Our only quibble with this section is that Mr. Lizza is too young, apparently, to know or remember WHERE Bill Clinton gave his Sister Souljah speech. Check it out, Mr. Lizza, and imagine how much more poetry your lead could have had.

The New York Times writes lovingly about (what we're calling) the Bridge of Sheekey, which will connect the press filing center to the Republican National Convention at the Garden next year. LINK

A must-read for those of you thinking about workspace. "Fifteen feet above the avenue, wrapped in printed translucent vinyl and glowing from within at night, the bridge will stretch 180 feet from the Garden to the top of the steps at the north end of Farley."

Pegged to the Balz piece from Monday, the Republican National Committee let loose with its Gephardt oppo research release last night, featuring repeat use of the phrases "tried, tested and rejected" and of course, "liberal Democrat." And the Gephardt packet was followed shortly thereafter by the John Kerry dossier ("A Massachusetts Liberal Out Of Touch With America" … "Votes in lockstep with Ted Kennedy" … ).

His spokesman says it might have been a mint, but plenty of people who were watching C-SPAN thought they saw Senator John Edwards chewing gum at the NARAL event Tuesday night. LINK

"As far as we know, such behavior is perfectly legal — except, perhaps, in New York — so we wondered what the big deal was. In any case, Edwards's press secretary, Mike Briggs, told us that his boss wasn't chewing gum but he 'might have been' sucking on a mint," writes Lloyd Grove. LINK

"The same brand favored by Monica Lewinsky? 'I'm not going there,' Briggs replied."

"Meanwhile, Drudge missed the real story: Edwards rival Senator John Kerry was spotted applying lip balm during Rep. Dick Gephardt's remarks. 'I can confirm that his lips were chapped after three days in Iowa,' Kerry spokesman David Wade told us.

Which takes nothing away from Kerry's deep and abiding love of all things Iowan."

Lloyd also has this: "It looks like Senator John Kerry has won the Kathleen Turner primary. Tuesday night at the big NARAL Pro-Choice America dinner commemorating the 30th anniversary of the Supreme Court's Roe v. Wade decision, the sultry actress confided to The Post 's Mark Leibovich that she would support the Massachusetts Democrat's presidential ambitions. 'I spent a half-hour with him this afternoon,' she cooed."

Edwards

The Edwards camp has finally rolled out those staff announcements they've been sitting on, waiting for the wrap-up of a few details, and the Raleigh News & Observer's Wagner has them all in the paper's special "Eye on Edwards" section, including the announcement of Democratic National Committee press secretary Jennifer Palmieri as the campaign's press secretary, Senator Tim Johnson 2002 campaign research director Christina Reynolds as research director, and 2002 DCCC deputy political director Katreice Banks as political director. And, oh yeah, longtime (by comparison) Edwards campaign hands Nick Baldick, David Ginsberg, and Jonathan Prince declare their nifty new titles, with Baldick as campaign manager. LINK

"An advisery role is also being crafted for Steve Jarding, the operative who ran Edwards' PAC during the past year. Jarding is likely to be based in Washington."

And in a slightly dated but still Noteworthy develop.m.ent, Edwards has racked up some impressive local support in the Granite State lately, per the Concord Monitor, including "Peter Callaghan, a founder of Stein, Volinsky and Callaghan; Tom Maher, a principal and co-founder of the Edison group; Chris Miller, a psychotherapist; Steve Rothenberg, technology coordinator for the Concord school district; Chris Sullivan, an attorney with Rath, Young & Pignatelli in Concord; Kristen Sullivan, a Concord real estate agent; Rob Werner, vice chairman of the Merrimack County Democrats; Mike Vlacich, former economic policy develop.m.ent adviser to Shaheen and a past president of the New Hampshire Young Democrats; and Pam Yonkin, an economist."

And a Nashua Telegraph item had this: "State Senator Joe Foster of Nashua is leading a group of area Democrats in endorsing North Carolina Senator John Edwards' bid for president in 2004. Former state Reps. Bill Barry III of Nashua and Linda Foster of Mont Vernon also are supporting Edwards along with their spouses, Nashua lawyer Helen Honorow and Scott Foster, an engineer. Other area Democrats supporting Edwards are Milford Democratic Town Chairman Richard Keating, director of graduate studies at New England College, and Paul Apple, a lawyer and Mont Vernon resident."

"Edwards fell short Wednesday in a bid to keep the Bush administration from enacting new rules that Edwards argues will lead to increased pollution from industrial plants," Mr. Wagner also reports. LINK

But: "Edwards, who launched his presidential campaign earlier this month, drew praise from environmental organizations despite Wednesday's outcome. The issue has been closely monitored by Democratic-leaning interest groups comparing White House contenders."

"Shortly after the vote, Senator Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, another Democratic presidential aspirant, touted his role as 'a lead cosponsor' of Edwards' amendment and pledged to 'continue to fight [the new rules] through whatever means we can.'"

But Edwards' name is front-and-center in all the national print coverage.

Lizza on the Tar Heel senior Senator: "John Edwards seems to go through cycles of exceedingly high expectations and intense media buzz punctuated by disappointing public performances that leave one wondering, 'What is all the fuss about?' Last May, for example, a crescendo of Edwards hype came crashing down after a less than impressive encounter with Tim Russert on 'Meet the Press.'"

"Since then, the rollout of the Edwards campaign has again been masterful. Almost every Bush official I have ever asked has told me that Edwards is the Democrat the White House fears the most. Democratic operatives are flocking to his campaign. Expressing a sentiment apparently common among young Democratic staffers, an unemployed press secretary for a losing Democratic Senate candidate recently told me that Howard Dean's people keep leaving messages for her-but she's holding out for a spot on the Edwards campaign. Jennifer Palmieri, the smart and savvy press secretary for the Democratic National Committee, just signed on as Edwards's spokeswoman. And the senator's recent Sunday interview with George Stephanopoulos was well-received, suggesting that he'd honed his TV style since the 'Meet the Press' fiasco."

"But Edwards's NARAL speech was another unexpected dud. Edwards is still better at retail politics than he is at wholesale politics. The charm he exudes in small groups rarely comes across before large audiences."

Lieberman

The Two Bills noticed a picture and caption on page B1 of today's Union Leader: "An AP photo of Lieberman (with pursed lips with aide amid blowing snow) with caption 'Democratic Presidential hopeful US Senator Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, seen here leaving the Merrimack Restaurant in Manchester in ferocious winds, looks under-dressed and may be wondering why he is in New Hampshire a whole winter before the 2004 Presidential primary.'" LINK

Lieberman said yesterday that Democrats didn't do well in November 2002 because they lacked a national message. LINK

"Lieberman met privately with about 10 largely uncommitted activists, including former Manchester Mayor Sylvio Dupuis; Judy Reardon, who was former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen's legal counsel; former Democratic Party chairman Joe Keefe; and Hillsborough County Attorney Peter McDonough, whose reelection bid is in the courts," The Union Leader reports.

"Senator Joseph I. Lieberman repeatedly denounced the Bush administration's values during a stop in New Hampshire yesterday, just hours after the Senate defeated, on a largely partisan vote, environmental legislation that he cosponsored," writes the Boston Globe 's Johnson. LINK

"Besides Senator John F. Kerry, Democrat of Massachusetts, and former governor Howard Dean of Vermont, Lieberman is the third New Englander in the 2004 presidential race. Yesterday, he sought to lower expectations, even as he announced he was being supported by state Representative Peter Sullivan of Manchester."

"'I'm not kidding myself; John Kerry and Howard Dean are from right next door. Boston television and Boston press have a lot of impact here,' Lieberman said."

Lizza on Lieberman: "Joe Lieberman's speech was short and mono-thematic … Lieberman hasn't figured out how to talk about values without simply repeating the word over and over again, but putting abortion in this context is part of his experiment to run as a centrist who refuses to cede the 'values' issue to Republicans while simultaneously locking up the support of key liberal constituencies. He has been aggressively courting African Americans and last week buried for good the reservations he once expressed about affirmative action. He followed the same script this week, assuring the fiercely secular pro-choice movement-a group that could be suspicious of his religiosity-of his unflinching support for abortion rights."

Sharpton

The New York Times devotes significantly more space to the fire at the National Action Network headquarters than they did to Sharpton's announcement: LINK

"Mr. Sharpton gave an interview in an adjacent building where he also has offices, a cramped three rooms. He sat in a back room, looking uncharacteristically lifeless and sad … "

"'This is more painful than anything I have ever dealt with,' Mr. Sharpton said, his voice subdued. 'But you have got to bear the pain and keep going.'"

The Times even adds a sidebar on life at the House. LINK

The Times quotes supporters in the street who are suspicious of the cause of the blaze, but the authorities seem to be sure it was an accident.

Most significantly, Sharpton himself doesn't seem to be fanning any conspiracy flames on this.

The Daily News uses four reporters to produce an account of the fire and aftermath that is not much better than a wire story. LINK

The New York Post 's coverage of the fire is surprisingly low-key LINK , but Deborah Orin writes the exact column you would expect from her (complete with "sky is falling" blind quotes concerning Sharpton and primetime convention speech, Carol Moseley-Braun theories, and the implications for GOP stabs at the Jewish vote). LINK

Rush and Molloy lead with Roy Innis' inability to understand why Mayor Bloomberg would spend MLK Day with Sharpton, rather than with Innis. LINK

NEW HAMPSHIRE

The Union Leader asked the New Hampshire Democratic Party chair about Washington, DC legislation to supercede New Hampshire as the nation's first primary: "Kathy Sullivan said an early D.C. primary would violate party rules, which give Iowa and New Hampshire the first opportunities in the selection process for a presidential nominee."

John DiStaso asked Sullivan about NARAL Pro Choice America's Kate Michelman's plea for Senate-based presidential would-bes to filibuster judicial nominees. LINK

"'I think it's about time we as Democrats stand up and say there are certain issues with such fundamental importance that we expect our representatives to do everything in their power to protect them,' Sullivan said. 'And I think the right to privacy is one of those. I don't think there should be any waffling on this.'" LINK

"Sullivan said senators who are Presidential candidates (so far, John Kerry, Joseph Lieberman and John Edwards) will send a message to primary voters with their approach to the overall abortion issue and particularly a Bush nominee, should one come up in the next year."

"'I doubt it will be as important of an issue as the economy, but there will be many people to whom this is one of the most important issues,' Sullivan said."

"But Senator Joseph Lieberman apparently doesn't see it as cut and dried as does Michelman."

"Making his first visit to the state as an announced Presidential candidate, Lieberman told the Granite Status that although he is pro-choice, 'I have criticized the president for having a litmus test on the constitutional right to choose, and therefore I have said I don't believe in a single-issue litmus test.'"

"He said a Supreme Court nominee's position on abortion 'would be one of a group of important factors I'd consider in deciding whether to support or oppose — or filibuster — a candidate.'"

DiStaso reports that Edwards has signed up more supporters:

"Keene city councilors "Chris Coates and Andi Johnson; former Cheshire County Commissioner Greg Martin; Dublin attorney Glenn Smith; Salem activist Cheryl Breton; David Lee of Derry, a former co-chair of Independents for John McCain in 2000; Derry town Councilor Paul Needham; Derry Democratic Committee Chairman Phil Wellner, Manchester activists Corey Doherty and Donald Manning; and Grantham activist Dr. Rob Nordgren. The Edwards camp has released dozens of other names to local newspapers in the Nashua, Concord and Seacoast areas, which we'll report as space allows. Meanwhile, top Edwards backer former Senator Caroline McCarley will be honored by Strafford County Dems in Dover on Feb. 1."

SOUTH CAROLINA

The South Carolina GOP sent the following statement from chairman Katon Dawson around on Wednesday: "Since John Edwards has agreed to honor the economic boycott against the people of South Carolina by refusing to stay in hotels in our state, I have a few simple questions to ask him:
1. Will he buy or lease real estate for a campaign headquarters in SC?
2. Will he employ any South Carolinian staff for his campaign?
3. Will he advertise on our local television and radio stations?
4. Will he or his staff eat at any of our state's fine restaurants?
5. Will he use South Carolina printers to create campaign literature or mail?
6. Will he buy gasoline for his campaign motorcades?
7. Will he use South Carolina Dry Cleaning for his shirts and suits?
8. Will he use South Carolina caterers for political events?
9. Will he use hotel and motel space for campaign events?
10. Will he use South Carolina companies to lease rental cars?"

"John Edwards is a South Carolina native. He was born in Seneca, South Carolina 49 years ago. I wonder if Senator Edwards has honored the economic boycott in South Carolina since its inception."

Dean

The Union Leader reports: "Vermont Gov. Howard Dean came solo" to Durham, NH yesterday. "One of the earliest to announce his run for the Presidency, Dean was in town to talk with faculty members at UNH's Whittemore School of Business about issues he thinks are critical to the state and the country."

Lizza on Dean: "While most of the candidates wrapped their pro-choice beliefs in the soft glow of moral language and studiously ignored the most difficult issues of abortion policy, Dean did the opposite. His style is to grab the political live wire that everyone else is terrified of touching. And so Dean took partial-birth abortion, naral's most controversial and difficult-to-defend position, and made it the centerpiece of his speech, insisting that the term itself was an artifice manufactured by the right … ."

"The Dean campaign has been going through cycles that are the opposite of the Edwards campaign: Long periods where everyone forgets about him are followed by bursts of great publicity and hype. He's on the cusp of another one of those surges. All recent reports from Iowa and New Hampshire say that he is electrifying the party faithful. His campaign has attracted some of the die-hard Democrats that toiled for Bill Bradley in 2000. Eric Hauser, Bradley's former press secretary, has offered to help Dean, and Rick Ridder, a senior adviser to Bradley, is now Dean's campaign manager. It's the same at the grassroots level. One top Democratic strategist notes that the 'shock troops of New Hampshire' that worked on the ground for Bradley are now working for Dean. On Tuesday night, Dean had another little weapon in tow: Senator Jim Jeffords, a potentially handy sidekick for winning independents in New Hampshire. 'He's my man,' an excited Jeffords exclaimed."

And our untrained ear thought Jeffords got the biggest crowd reaction of the night at NARAL when his name was announced …

The coverage we have read of Hilary Rosen's planned departure from her recording industry job fails to say if she is going to support Gov. Howard Dean for president, but it mentions her ties to the Gores, and the New York Times says this: "Ms. Rosen said she did not expect to pursue a career related to politics despite her connections but instead conceded she might pursue something music-related. Ms. Rosen is a political commentator for CNBC. 'I love politics,' she said, 'but it's always been a means to an end.'" LINK

Gephardt

As Noted yesterday, Rep. Dick Gephardt will indeed be traveling to New Hampshire this weekend for a series of events culminating in a Super Bowl/birthday party.

On Saturday, Gephardt will address the Democratic State Committee meeting in Concord, followed by a media avail. Saturday night, he will attend a reception with Manchester-area Democrats at TR Brennan's Restaurant.

Lizza on Gephardt: "For a politician who is known for being emotionally restrained, or even inert, Gephardt gave a deeply personal and eloquent speech about his journey from young pro-life Baptist to seasoned pro-choice presidential candidate … Still, when Gephardt proclaimed that he cast his first pro-choice vote in 1986, it was hard not to remember that that was exactly the moment he was preparing for his first presidential run."

KERRY

Senator John Kerry attended two fundraisers in South Florida yesterday. LINK

"Among the Democrats expected to attend one or both events were Bob Butterworth, the former Florida attorney general; Robert Farmer, treasurer for Bill Clinton's 1992 presidential campaign; Mitch Ceasar, chairman of the Broward Democratic Party; Kirk Wagar, a trial attorney who hosted a fundraiser for Kerry last month; Mara Giulianti, mayor of Hollywood; and John Rayson, a former state representative and mayoral candidate in Pompano Beach."

"Mitchell Berger, a leading fundraiser and Fort Lauderdale attorney, said he had raised money for Kerry in the past but was committed to the presidential campaign of U.S. Senator Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut."

"Berger said candidates like Kerry and Lieberman will continue to come to South Florida for campaign donations even if U.S. Senator Bob Graham of Florida enters the race."

"'They have connections with this community,' Berger said. "If Senator Graham decides to run, I will have to give pause. But the longer he waits, the more I involved I will be with the Lieberman campaign.'"

Lizza on Kerry: "Just as Dean is inheriting the Bradley machine, John Kerry is inheriting the Al Gore operation … Gore veterans Jill Alper, Chris Lehane, and Michael Whouley are all on board with Kerry now. Just as Dean is the scrappy anti-establishment candidate, Kerry is emerging as the candidate of the Democratic establishment. When Gore decided not to run, a Kerry aide argued that it would hurt Dean the most because Dean needed an establishment foil to run against. Kerry is becoming that foil."

"Like Gore in 2000, Kerry has the best campaign organization. Indeed, he seems to have started building it as soon as Gore passed him over as a running mate in favor of Lieberman. At the 2000 Democratic convention, Kerry was already meeting with delegates from Iowa, Florida, and New Hampshire. Kerry is using his institutional muscle to build methodical support among the Democratic base of blacks, labor, and women-just as Gore did. His speech reinforced all of this. Only the candidate of the establishment would quote from a New York Times editorial. Next to Edwards's speech, Kerry's was the least memorable of the evening. It was a serviceable restatement of Kerry's commitment to all the issues naral cares about … Kerry probably had the least need to impress this audience. His first Senate speech in 1985 was about abortion rights, and he's been a reliable ally to groups like naral ever since."

"Indeed, if there is one candidate who might really benefit from a Sister Souljah moment, it's Kerry. 'Kerry's in danger of being the pander-bear of the race,' says an adviser to a rival campaign."

HART

Don't tell jokes in front of Gary Hart, apparently. Certain kinds of jokes, anyway.

"'Go ahead, bang away, show the picture, have your fun. I'm prepared for that,' the Democrat said Wednesday in Des Moines. 'Then let's move on, because when our sons and daughters are dying overseas, really how many times can you laugh?'" LINK

"'I'm not just out test-marketing myself. I'm getting feedback on my ideas,' Hart said during an interview with the Des Moines Register on Wednesday, on his first return to Iowa since dropping out of the 1988 campaign a year before the Iowa caucuses."

"Hart said his public apology to his wife and family, his supporters and the nation for spending a night in 1987 in a Washington, D.C., condominium with model Donna Rice ought to be enough to put the incident behind him. The photograph of Hart aboard a friend's yacht with Rice on his lap came to symbolize the incident that prompted him to quit the race. The survival of his marriage to wife Lee and President Clinton's subsequent public infidelity have made his indiscretion 'ancient history,' he said."

"'I took full responsibility. I apologized to all concerned on national television,' Hart said, calling Clinton's indiscretions 'quite a different circumstance.'"

GORE

Wishful thinking: LINK

POLITICS

So here's what the FPOTUS did on MLK Day: he "spoke to 50,000 people in San Antonio (and more around the country) in an appearance on a special edition of Tom Joyner's radio show. He spoke about Martin Luther King and about how he would have felt about the University of Michigan case." Thank you, Mr. Kennedy.

"An alliance of major transportation unions yesterday warned that they will refuse to give money at Democratic fundraisers hosted by four prominent Democrats who are leaders of an organization seeking to restrict collective bargaining rights in airline labor negotiations." The four: "Vic Fazio, a former House member who served as chairman of the Democratic Caucus; Don Foley, former executive director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee; Neil Goldschmidt, former Oregon governor and U.S. secretary of transportation; and Charles S. Robb, former Virginia governor and senator." LINK

BUSH ADMINISTRATION STRATEGY/PERSONALITY\

On the president's trip to Gephardtown yesterday, Elisabeth Bumiller's New York Times coverage is typical, with the emphasis on the trouble the president's tax plan is in, the emphasis on small business' central place in American life and the nation's economy, Boxgate, and the president's dilution of the domestic message with talk of Iraq. LINK

Speaking of Boxgate, the New York Times is almost alone in mentioning it in a news story — it gets Lloyd Grove-like treatment in the DC papers — so we wonder whether Dana Milbank is still on vacation.

Remember, though: the reason the president travels and doesn't just give all his speeches in War-shing-TON, DeeeCeee is that it helps gin up more and better local coverage when you move the package around (even if the president isn't — yet — fundraising for 2004).

So, our less-regular-than-it-oughta-be check on how he did in the Missouri media yesterday finds:

Boxgate is a picture story.

KMOV-TV led its coverage with the box switch-a-roo. LINK

But the NBC affiliate, KSDK, didn't mention it on its website. LINK

The St. Louis Post-Dispatch appears to have gotten the Bartlett mantra. Their story plays right into the economic message of the day: when small business owners have more money, "they tend to spend it," according to the president. LINK

There's a picture — but no mention — of the boxes.

The Kansas City Star's Kraske's story is more even, casting the day as a defense of his economic plan. LINK

The Washington Post 's Weisman, among others, writes up Treasury Secretary-designate John Snow's financial disclosure: LINK

"One of Snow's country clubs, the Commonwealth Club of Richmond, admitted its first African American only in 1988, a fact that Democratic aides pledged to raise in Snow's confirmation hearing on Tuesday. Still, no one suggested that his nomination is in jeopardy."

The New York Times blares: "The Bush administration plans to allow religious groups for the first time to use federal housing money to help build centers where religious worship is held, as long as part of the building is also used for social services. " LINK

"The policy shift, which was made in a rule that the Department of Housing and Urban Development proposed this month, significantly expands the administration's contentious religion-based initiative. "

The reporter's eyes must have lit up when his source uttered this kicker quote: "'It's like trying to take the sugar out of cupcakes,' he said. 'The line can get blurred.'"

The New York Times ' Lewis writes a whole judicial confirmation story without using the word "Pickering" and barely mentioning the Supreme Court. LINK

Bob Novak states flatly that Al Gonzales' intervention in the Michigan brief harmed his chances of being Bush's first Supreme Court pick, but doesn't cite any sources. Which means that Novak was told something on deep background — or that he's merely speculating, or wishfully thinking. Novak's column does get the detail that Solicitor General Ted Olson didn't get to lobby Bush directly — he had to go through Gonzales. LINK