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one in every eight Americans … lives in California.

We've tried for weeks to tell you about the importance of two stories: steel and the California primary. Indulge us by letting us take one more, and likely last crack at it today.

Beyond the lives of the steelworkers and the communities who will be directly affected by the president's looming announcement on tariffs and his apparent decision not to have the federal government subsidize steelworker health benefits, the plain truth is that every American uses (and pays for) products made from steel. (The White House says an on-paper announcement will come later today).

And every American will have to contend with the implications, national security-related and otherwise, if the US steel industry withers away.

And every Republican running in every House and Senate race happening in steel country in 2002 will have a pretty hefty millstone hanging around their necks.

Mike Allen seems to be ahead of the pack (including steady star Ron Fournier of the Family Wire, also known as the Associated Press) in reporting quite definitively that President Bush has made up his mind on a complex, carefully Hughes-parsed solution.

"President Bush decided yesterday to impose tariffs of up to 30 percent on most imported steel as part of a broader plan to rescue the nation's financially troubled steel industry, administration officials said. Under the plan Bush endorsed at an Oval Office meeting with advisers, steel imported from Canada and Mexico would be exempt from the duties, as would imports from developing countries such as Argentina, Thailand and Turkey. Japan, China, South Korea, Russia, Ukraine and Brazil would be among the nations subject to the tariffs. Administration officials continued adjusting the plan into the night, hoping to win statements of approval from unions and industry leaders by the time Bush officially announces his decision, which could come as early as today." ( http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A38583-2002Mar4.html )

"Steel industry executives said the exemptions of countries and products envisioned by the White House could apply to more than one-third of current steel imports, reducing the effectiveness of a proposed tariff regime designed to raise the price of U.S.-made steel."

"The Bush administration's final compromise plan emerged from a rare high-level split, with senior adviser Karl Rove and Commerce Secretary Donald L. Evans pushing for higher tariffs, and Bush's chief economic adviser, Lawrence B. Lindsey, urging him to adhere to his free-trade principles. Vice President Cheney was closely involved although administration officials — smarting from negative reactions to his handling of the administration's energy plan — played down his role. The compromise was brokered by Chief of Staff Andrew H. Card Jr. and deputy chief of staff Joshua B. Bolten, sources said."

"'Karl's not getting everything he wants, and Lindsey isn't getting everything he wants,' one White House official said."

We are doing some spec-u-latin' here, but: with most politicians (Clinton, Dole, and Gore, to name three), when the elements of a pending controversial decision get out, it's usually the product of senseless or purposeful leaking by those representing one point of view or another, trying to win an internal power struggle.

But this Administration is pretty leak-proof, and often "Karen 'n' Karl" have back-timed a purposeful leak strategy (again, remember stem cells) that somehow puts a compromise in place that makes the most intensely emotional parties (in this case, steel and steelworkers) happier with the part of the loaf they ultimately get, than they would be with the amount that run-up, pre-announcement leaking would indicate they'll get.

Put another way: what the president announces — maybe even today, and we still don't see a hint of HOW he'll make his announcement — might have caused steel and the union to go ballistic, but compared to what they have been fearing for days, the final decision might be good enough.

If we are right, and if this "plan" works, we would suggest giving the White House major points for technical competence.

Still and again, though, we ask the question: given his pro-free-trade theology and the views of most of Big Business, shouldn't the president as a matter of good public policy have to explain what the arguments are on the side of establishing tariffs? Of course, it's largely the electoral politics that are weighing on him, but shouldn't that be laid bare?

Democrats already are using the peg to tout a steelworker running for the House under their banner in Pennsylvania, against a Republican incumbent who supported Bush on fast-track, in a district that could/could be competitive.

Bush will speak at his wife's conference on education later this morning; meet with His All Holiness Bartholomew, Ecumenical Patriarch of the Greek Orthodox Church; and meet with Egyptian President Mubarak later this afternoon.

Today also brings the California primary — the big contest of the 2002 election cycle, with the GOP gubernatorial nomination battle being the marquee contest.

Governing the world's fifth-biggest economy, and the Bush White House's attempt to establish a beachhead in the world's most important political state are two pretty major thematics going on here, leading up to the November match-up against incumbent Gray Davis (D).

Although we should know by now never to say "never" in politics, Rep. Gary Condit faces pretty long odds in his bid to win the Democratic nomination for his (newly drawn) 18th district; and former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan, the former far-and-away frontrunner, now appears to face only slightly better odds of winning the GOP gubernatorial nomination.

Polls will open at 10:00 am and close at 11:00 p.m. ET; the Los Angeles Times will be exit polling (as will some of the candidates). The only truly reportable results, however, will come from the Associated Press and, to some extent, from the California Secretary of State's website. ( http://vote2002.ss.ca.gov/Returns.htm )

With no media effort to project a winner, declaring one will likely rely, as usual, on candidate concessions by the losers.

As with all major elections in the Post-Florida era, we'll be on the lookout, along with everyone else, for any voting problems or allegations of fraud or system errors. Official, final results will not come for days.

"Despite good weather--the only chance of rain is on the far north coast--experts were forecasting a 36% turnout of the state's roughly 15 million voters, the second lowest on record," per the Los Angeles Times in its recommended wrap-around of everything going on election-wise in the state today. ( http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/front/la-000016514mar05.story )
?coll=la%2Dheadlines )%2Dfrontpage )

The Conventional Wisdom is that low turnout likely will help upstart GOP gubernatorial contender William Simon even more, since conservatives tend to be the most reliable voters. Unclear whether low turnout in Condit's district will help him, since measuring the number of Condit loyalists who are likely to vote no matter what is tough.

The myth may still be circulating that California has a fully open primary, but it doesn't. Registered Democrats will get ballots listing only Democratic candidates, Republicans only Republicans, and so on. Independent or "decline to state" voters can pick a ballot that lists only propositions and nonpartisan contests — or they can choose from among the partisan ballots. So independents can vote in any primary, but party members can't cross over.

USA Today sort of backs into a good point, in writing that "The White House is closely monitoring the campaign, which has widened the fracture in the state Republican Party." Ironically, the White House's effort to reshape the party's image by recruiting Riordan has had the effect of exacerbating the ideological split within the state GOP, though much of it has to do with how Riordan and Simon ran their campaigns. ( http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2002/03/05/calif-primary.htm )

Also on the ballot today: Proposition 45, an effort to weaken the state's term limits. If passed, the proposition would allow state assembly members to extend their service from six years to 10 and state senators from eight years to 12, but only if 20 percent of their district's voters sign petitions to put them on the ballot again.

In Washington tonight, the Republican House campaign committee will hold its annual fundraiser, billed this year as a $5.5 million "Salute to America's Heroes," singling out Rudy Giuliani. The closed fundraiser will be held at the Washington Hilton, starting at 6:30 p.m., and will include a video tribute to America's Mayor and a performance by, ahem, Three Dog Night.

Democrats are asking: on the day US military personnel were killed overseas, would Bill Clinton have been allowed to continue with his schedule and raise money?

Back when he was governor, you may recall that Mr. Bush didn't talk much about dragging-death victim James Byrd, and he has continued the practice of staying above the fray on many other American stories that some might think a national leader would want to weigh in on. Bush's notably brief remarks on the US casualties yesterday in Minnesota reminded some of this President's hands-off ways.

We're not not sure if this is a product of Karen Hughes' communications strategy, Bush's style, or what, but sometimes he just seems to keep his distance from things.

The Washington Post 's Milbank examines Bush's bare mention of the US casualties yesterday. "Aides said the almost matter-of-fact treatment of the losses overseas was no accident: Casualties may — and probably will — be worse than today's before the war is over. Bush therefore needs to calibrate his response to set a pace for the nation, they said. His public remarks [yesterday] were accompanied by qualifiers such as, 'From the beginning of this I have cautioned the American people.'" ( http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A38270-2002Mar4.html )

"Behind the business-as-usual appearance, White House aides know the truth about public opinion in wartime: The more images Americans see of body bags or bereft families, the more likely they are to question a mission. There has been no decline in public tolerance for losses so far, and Bush is eager to keep it that way."

USA Today 's Keen writes, "Bush's decision to stick to his schedule drew a rebuke from the Democratic National Committee. It 'shows the difficult situation he is going to find himself in an election year,' DNC spokeswoman Jennifer Palmieri said. 'Is he going to be commander in chief or is he going to act as the political leader of the Republican Party?"' ( http://www.usatoday.com/usatonline/20020305/3912459s.htm )

Obviously, it's in Democrats' interests to try to make this an either/or for Bush, whereas Republicans have argued all along, and publicly ever since Karl Rove's much-covered remarks at the Republican National Committee meeting in Austin, that Bush can do both.

"'He's the leader of the country and the leader of the party. He must balance those two responsibilities, and he's doing it in an appropriate way,' says Karl Rove, Bush's top political adviser."

"Bush's political speeches always include an update on the war," Keen writes. "He never says directly that people should vote for Republicans because of his stewardship of the conflict. But his words serve as a reminder that he's fighting an enemy that threatens Americans' way of life and that he needs all the help he can get from Congress."

Today also brings dueling congressional redistricting briefings (vital to America's future, even if boring to some of you), as a long-planned (relatively speaking) Democratic party briefing scheduled for 11:00 am is being countered, seemingly at the 11th hour, by a Republican National Committee conference call at 2:30 p.m..

Both parties are rolling out their big guns for the briefings, in which Republicans can be expected to argue that the latest round of redistricting has given them an edge to gain House seats in November — the chairman of the GOP House campaign committee has been sticking by his eight-to-10 prediction — while Democrats can be expected to argue that the process has been a wash. Since some of the GOP's anticipated favorable maps in states like Texas did not come to reality, Democrats would seem to be more in the right.

After becoming nationally known for imposing a moratorium on the death penalty — back during the thick of the 2000 presidential campaign, when the press corps was churning out stories about Texas' death row under the ministrations of Governor Bush — Illinois Gov. George Ryan (R) is now "considering whether to commute the sentences of all 163 inmates on the state's death row … as an Illinois commission he appointed is poised to release recommendations on what to do about the state's death penalty." ( http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/asection/la
-
000016534mar05.story )?coll=la%2Dnews%2Da%5Fsection ) )

From the ABCNEWS London Bureau: Five Israelis have been killed and more than 50 injured since last night in a fresh wave of Palestinian attacks … A C-17 with the remains of the US soldiers killed in Afghanistan is due to arrive at Ramstein AFB later this morning. Brief military honors will be conducted upon the arrival of the plane. The caskets, draped with American flags, will be transported to a C-5, which will bring the remains home to the United States.

Steel

More from the Washington Post 's Allen: "By yesterday afternoon, industry executives who had wanted an across-the-board tariff on all steel products from all countries had begun to resign themselves to something much more complicated, with different products and nations receiving different treatment. A particularly tough decision involved imported steel slabs that are refined into finished products at U.S. steel-rolling mills. Currently, foreign-made slabs cost 30 percent less than those made in the United States, giving rolling mills an advantage over U.S. companies that produce steel from iron-ore in coal-fired hearths."

"While industry and union officials inched toward grudging acceptance of the administration initiative, it is unlikely to satisfy steel-consuming industries that enjoy low steel prices."

The The Wall Street Journal suggests that members of Congress will now try to address the legacy costs (insurance, health care) issue, in anticipation of an adverse decision from the president.

The New York Times ed board is pro-free-trade too. ( http://www.nytimes.com/2002/03/05/opinion/_05WED3.html )

Budget Politics

"House Republican leaders are abandoning efforts to pass another economic recovery bill and will instead push this week for a scaled-back package of unemployment benefits and health care tax credits," the Washington Times reports. "Senate Minority Leader Trent Lott, Mississippi Republican, said yesterday he favors adopting the new House strategy but is not optimistic about its chances with Senate Democrats." ( http://www.washtimes.com/national/20020305-722750.htm )

"The move, likely to come to the House floor tomorrow, would end the Bush administration's plan this year for a $77 billion bill to create jobs, mostly through tax relief. Congressional aides said the latest action is simply a recognition that Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle, South Dakota Democrat, would continue to block House bills that focus mostly on tax cuts."

The The Wall Street Journal looks at how tax-shy gubernatorial candidates are this year, with a focus on the tax-phobic Volunteer State, from which both Al Gore and GOP Senate campaign committee chief Bill Frist hail.

In Missouri, a key presidential state as well as home to a top 2002 Senate contest, "Gov. Bob Holden on Monday declared an economic emergency … , the first step toward drawing from a state savings fund to finance government services facing likely cuts. Holden's declaration seeks to use $135 million from the state reserve fund to pay for mental health services, public transit and other government functions in his budget for fiscal 2003, which starts July 1. Two-thirds of the 163-member House and the 34-member Senate must approve the request for it to take effect." ( http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/asection/
la-000016540mar05.story )?coll=la%2Dnews%2Da%5Fsection ) )

Legislative Agenda

Paul Krugman writes a perfectly good column explaining why the administration's Social Security plan would either dramatically cut the guaranteed benefit portion of Social Security for future retirees, or eat up more general fund revenue than now exists — and then, he ruins it with a concluding paragraph we have read twice now, and still don't understand. ( http://www.nytimes.com/2002/03/05/opinion/05KRUG.html )

The Washington Post looks at all the radio and TV ads timed to the Senate debate over human cloning, which starts up again today with a 2:30 p.m. Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee hearing. ( http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A38208-2002Mar4.html )

(It may be a bit out of our range, but we kinda dig this Los Angeles Times story about a group called the Raelian Movement which believes that space aliens have told them to start cloning humans, and how the group now finds itself smack in the middle of the Washington debate over cloning. ( http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/front/la
-000016510mar05.story )?coll=la%2Dheadlines )%2Dfrontpage )

Election Reform & Campaign Finance Legislation

Borrowing Nike's tag line, the Washington Post editorial page is getting antsy for the Senate passage and presidential signing of Shays-Meehan-McCain-Feingold. "Today [McConnell] is expected to ask Senate Republicans to help him hold up consideration of the bill until he can win approval of a package of what he describes as technical amendments. But Republicans shouldn't go along." ( http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A38825-2002Mar4.html )

Several papers confirm that a deal is close on those anti-fraud provisions that have held up a Senate election reform compromise. Though Daschle temporarily pulled the bill from the floor, lawmakers are optimistic. ( http://www.washtimes.com/national/20020305-19152.htm ) ( http://www.miami.com/mld/miami/news/politics/2791432.htm What's holding them up? Politics, a bit. But the language of the bill will change the way election officials do their jobs, and it's critical for them and for voters that all the provisions are fully fleshed out. The passage of time — deliberative democracy and all — is not necessarily a bad thing here.

This seems to be a case where good legislators on both sides sincerely wanted to pass a good bill, and the political drawbacks against doing so are few. We predict a David Broder column in the future that explains, in some detail, why election reform legislation is a sign that The System works.

Bush Administration Strategy/Personality

The Alexandra Pelosi film "Journey's with George" got trotted out on Today today, with Ms. Pelosi live in studio with Ms. Couric, the former resplendent in purple and black, perfect morning colors. "He's hard not to like," Ms. Pelosi confided on live TV about the president. We were reminded of one of the sad, hard truths of presidential journalism: it's hard to get good audio on the campaign plane. The best clip they showed: a taste of ABC's own stars, Goldstein/Slattery. ( http://www.sxsw.com/films/index.php?dvsearch=show&dvserialnum=621

Exquisitely timed just one day after book and author were toasted last night at a Washington-book-party-for-a-time-capsule (and we mean that in a totally good way), Frank Bruni's book about the president ("Ambling Into History") is largely favorably reviewed in the august pages of the The Wall Street Journal by CNN's Jonathan Karl, always looking for outlets less intrinsically superficial than the 49-second live shot.

Sometimes partisan tussling becomes separation-of-powers tussling: Republican Senators Hagel and Shelby believe homeland security chief Tom Ridge should testify before Congress, but the White House believes he should be treated as a White House adviser to the president, and not be compelled to go to the Hill and explain how he is directing the spending of billions of dollars. The face-off continues. ( http://www.nytimes.com/2002/03/05/politics/05RIDG.html )

Dana Milbank in another story today looks at this Administration's seeming tendency to blame things on its predecessor — putting it in both an historical context and in the context of the Bush campaign's rhetoric during 2000. "Clinton loyalists say it's a bit rich for Bush to blame Clinton for the nation's woes after Bush campaigned against a culture that says, 'If you've got a problem, blame somebody else.'" ( http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A38297-2002Mar4.html )

The president's trip to Minnesota yesterday gets campaign-like coverage from the state wire and a few of the local papers. They mention politics, but dwell on pageantry. ( http://www.duluthsuperior.com/mld/duluthtribune/2794458.htm )

The Minneapolis Star-Tribune, however, was in slightly more of a "hold powerful people accountable" mode. "Mingling policy and politics, President Bush visited the Twin Cities Monday to tout a grab-bag of education proposals and to boost the U.S. Senate candidacy of former St. Paul Mayor Norm Coleman. Bush's six-hour visit was only his second foray into Minnesota since he took office last year. And given the importance the White House has attached to Coleman's race against Democratic Senator Paul Wellstone, political analysts don't believe it will be his last." ( http://www.startribune.com/stories/587/1908027.html )

USA Today 's Page scored an interview with 41, in which he vents about the whole "dynasty" thing — on the eve of the opening of an exhibit at his presidential library, "'Fathers and Sons,'" which "will feature peace treaties and wartime ultimatums, family letters and personal keepsakes from the presidencies of the Adamses and the Bushes." ( http://www.usatoday.com/life/llead.htm

ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary

Al Sharpton is expected in DC today, and we are told he'll be spending some time on Capitol Hill, including expected meetings with the Empire State's Senators to just chat.

We don't know if one of his many loyal supporters planted this item or not, but in our expert judgment, Al Gore's chances of becoming president are improved, in a uni-directional vector kind of way, every time he gets Page Six items like this (except for maybe the "husky" part): "Al Gore, bearded and husky, working on an elliptical machine at the Equinox gym on East 63rd Street four days in a row."

Politics

The Washington Post profiles Republican Rep. Tom Reynolds, chair of tonight's big House GOP fundraiser and the heavy favorite to become the next chair of the party's House campaign committee. ( http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A38384-2002Mar4.html )

California

Analysts who say Gov. Gray Davis (D) will run his whole campaign trying to attack expected GOP nominee William Simon on abortion and guns, we think, are missing two-thirds of the equation. We expect Davis' campaign to go after Simon on his lack of experience (or the job training to preside over the world's fifth-biggest economy) and his business dealings.

When he's not fending off GOP attacks on him over the state budget or last year's power crisis, that is.

Maybe Simon will withstand all of those hits (and the Reagan analogy from the '60s will be trotted out 1,009 times), but don't underestimate the killer instincts of the Davis operatives, and the difficulty of winning statewide in a first run. Simon might beat Riordan, but Davis is no Riordan when it comes to message discipline. Or vice versa.

The The Wall Street Journal has a surprisingly tepid editorial suggesting that Riordan will have lost (if he loses) because he didn't focus enough on ideas in his campaign. And they seem curiously unenthusiastic about Simon.

The New York Post says this about Condit: "Supporters of his chief rival, State Assemblyman Dennis Cardoza of Merced, say Condit's fortunes had been on the upswing until he appeared last week on CNN's 'Larry King Live.'" ( http://www.nypost.com/news/nationalnews/11710.htm )

"After the TV appearance, the 53-year-old congressman's support plummeted, according to Cardoza's camp."

"For his part, Condit yesterday blamed the media."

"'You guys have pretty much taken the hide off my career,' he told reporters following him on the campaign trail."

"In the final days of the campaign, Condit's side has slung some mud, saying in a radio appearance that Cardoza has his own 'flawed' personality."

The Sacramento Bee notices that talk radio has played a role in the California races, and tags it as one of the big ways in which Simon supporters were able to coalesce around their candidate. ( http://www.sacbee.com/content/politics/story/1757746p-1837146c.html )

Our question, which the California papers have largely ignored: how much did Simon/Riordan et al spend on statewide radio? And where did they spend it?

Click here for our race preview, as well as more vote-counting details that you could possibly want to know. ( http://www.abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/DailyNews/cal_020304.html )

South Dakota

We'd promise to follow all those national party ads in South Dakota, but if all goes well and the two Senate candidates agree to ask the parties not to run them — well, there will still be lots of outside, independent groups who, despite the campaign's request that this race be decided "by South Dakotans," will buy time on "Frasier" in Sioux Falls and Pierre.

Thune and Johnson's campaigns will meet tomorrow in Washington to finalize an agreement that, we confess in our cynicism, may only prove temporary.

For a hint of this, see this excerpt from the Sioux Falls Argus-Leader, which is almost becoming Roll Call , practically, in its coverage of the race: "Senator Patty Murray, D-Wash., chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, has instructed that group to halt its advertising. They are doing it 'reluctantly and with serious misgivings,' said Jim Jordan, executive director of the DSCC. 'Our misgivings stem from our firm belief that John Thune is a politician who will do and say anything to further his political ambitions and that he simply cannot be trusted to honor whatever agreement is hammered out by the two campaigns,' Jordan said." ( http://www.argusleader.com/news/Tuesdayarticle1.shtml )

Florida

The Orlando Sentinel's Thomas suggests that Janet Reno is pulling a reverse-Riordan — play SO heavily to her base that she's a shoo-in to lose the general. ( http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/columnists/orl-
locmiket05030502mar05.column?coll=orl%2Dhome%2Dheadlines )

If you're participating in those dueling RNC/DNC redistricting press conferences today, you'll want to read this well-written primer on Florida's brewing court battle. ( http://www.sptimes.com/2002/03/05/State/Court_brouhaha_brews_.shtml )

The League of Women Voters in Florida wants the state to shore up what it sees as campaign finance loopholes. ( http://tampatrib.com/floridametronews/MGAPU35CFYC.html )

New York

Governor Pataki keeps the dream alive, and refused yesterday to commit to serving a full term if re-elected, while also seeming to endorse his own lieutenant governor. ( http://www.nytimes.com/2002/03/05/nyregion/05PATA.html )

Iowa

David Yepsen lauds Gov. Tom Vilsack for signing an English-only bill, noting that 80 percent of Iowans favored it, and saying that common sense demanded it. ( http://desmoinesregister.com/news/stories/c5917686/17508961.html )

Other Politics

The Boston Globe editorial page comes somewhat to acting Gov. Jane Swift's defense over her much-ballyhooed (by us as well as many others) remark about "powerful men" trying to determine her fate. ( http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/064/editorials/Swift_s_GOP
_foes_make_it_all_about_gender+.shtml )