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The event of the day will most likely be the Minnesota Senate debate at 11:00 am ET. More on that below.

On the heels of yesterday's New York Times/CBS survey giving the GOP a seven-point edge, the new USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll pegs the generic congressional ballot test -- which has not, in the past, directly correlated to the election night outcome in the House, but is viewed as one among other indices -- at 51 percent Republican to 45 percent Democrat. LINK

"Frank Newport, Gallup Poll editor in chief, says the late GOP gain can be traced to three factors:
-- Jitters over the economy are declining. The poll found that those who said the economy was getting worse fell from 59% two weeks ago to 51% now...
-- More Republicans than Democrats say they're more enthusiastic about voting than they were in the last off-year election in 1998.
-- Of those who said President Bush was a factor in their vote, respondents said 2-1 they were voting in favor of Bush, not against him. His job approval is 63%."
Gallup also conducted a slew of polls in key Senate races and found Republicans slightly ahead in most of them, contributing to the whirl of divergent Senate race public and private polling.

Even if many of these polls are totally screwy, the mere fact that the Chattering Class is open to thinking that the 2002 campaign could end with a GOP mini-surge says volumes about the dynamics of this Republican president's midterm.

The Washington Post's Allen looks at George W. Bush's "unprecedented presidential investment in a midterm election... LINK

...paired up with a report on Vice President Cheney's campaign travel. LINK

"White House officials... defended their decision to send Bush out on a hectic campaign blitz, which strategists have criticized for making the president appear too political and distracting, leading the public's attention away from the issue of Iraq," writes the Boston Globe's Kornblut. "Democratic officials have also mocked Bush's campaigning, saying it gives them an opening to attack the economy and accuse Bush of abdicating his responsibilities as a domestic president." LINK

"Karen Hughes, the close adviser to Bush, ridiculed the Democratic view" by recalling how many Democratic candidates in the past few midterm elections did not want to appear with THEIR president.

And for those STILL not sure, David Lightman marshals evidence in favor of the thesis that President Bush has a personal stake in this election. LINK

Lots of papers cover the "senior Administration official" who sought to dampen expectations yesterday, especially regarding the Senate.

Contrast that tactic to the one normally taken by the Bush high command on the immediate run-up to election day, when optimistic bravado is usually employed to create a sense of momentum. And wonder: why the change?

The Senate seems more likely to flip than the House, but Democrats come out of this weekend in a slightly better position to pick up Senate seats from the Republicans than vice versa.

The Des Moines Register's Norman sees a Senate tilting toward Democrats. LINK

Dick Morris writes a whole column off of the Zogby polling, and we LOVE one paragraph so much we quote it without (explicit) commentary: "A day is a lifetime in politics. Everything could change. Zogby could be wrong (unlikely). Or . . . the Democrats could spank the GOP on Tuesday." LINK

In the House, Republicans exit the weekend looking nicely positioned to potentially net seats.

The New York Times leads the paper with this emerging CW. LINK

Democrats are still poised to pick up governorships, but in the big daddy race for Florida governor, they are growing increasingly pessimistic about their chances of beating Gov. Jeb Bush (R), because 1) the Bill McBride campaign was in rough shape and national Democrats sent bodies down there too late to do much good; and 2) the Bush campaign has enjoyed an overwhelming cash advantage.

Former Vice President Gore was scheduled to appear at a breakfast with McBride in Miami earlier this morning before departing the state; Gore will vote in Carthage, TN tomorrow and stick around to watch the election returns.

The New York Times' Nagourney previews the intra-Democratic tong wars that almost certainly start first thing Wednesday: "[S]ome Democrats, in a private preview of what could turn out to be the public post-mortems that will begin on Wednesday, said the party should have risked running directly against the tax cuts that President Bush pushed through." LINK

"'The way to nationalize an election and make it a referendum on the Bush economy was to talk about the billion-pound elephant in the room - the Bush tax boon for the wealthy,' said Chris Lehane, a Democratic consultant. 'It is the only domestic policy issue. You can't talk about the economy with any credibility without addressing the issue. It would have been an organizing principle for a consistent message, and it would have broken through the cacophony of D.C.-speak.'"

Lots of of ink was spilled this weekend on pretty much everything election-related, but the one sentence that most caught our eye was from a run-of-the-mill AP dispatch out of Minnesota: "While most county auditors still are meeting with local election judges to determine exact procedure, it's becoming clear that folks who want to see election results as soon as they're available should take a nap Tuesday."

In the races that will most determine the national storyline, all other things being equal, expect later results in Minnesota and South Dakota, where the secretaries of state have already warned that the count will take longer than usual. Add to that list: potentially Iowa, Arkansas, Florida, and Maryland, where the absentee ballots will be counted later this week.

Roll Call's Keller reports: "Both parties have asked the Federal Election Commission for an expedited ruling on whether they can use soft money to fund post-election recount efforts in the wake of the new campaign finance law that takes effect Nov. 6." LINK

And here's another AP gem: "On the Tampa tarmac, [White House] Press Secretary Ari Fleischer and political aide Karl Rove chased each other under the wing of Air Force One with a bag of Rove's dirty laundry."

Get out the vote: USA Today's Kiely notes that with all the technological advances in robo-calling and organizing, what may decide the outcome of many key races this year is "old-fashioned shoe leather." LINK

Kiely looks at GOTV efforts by both parties, but we cannot stress enough the potential potency of this one: "The AFL-CIO this year has 750 paid staffers working with 4,000 union coordinators in battleground states. In Missouri, Democrats expect to have 10,000 volunteers getting out the vote on Election Day, many of them union members. Nationwide, the unions have provided hundreds of thousands of volunteers for get-out-the-vote efforts, estimates AFL-CIO political director Steve Rosenthal."

The New York Times' Rutenberg takes another look at where Voter News Service stands. LINK

And the Raleigh News & Observer's Rosen offers the latest look at how the networks have altered their election night modus operandi. LINK

In the ad wars, despite the crocodile tears of said Senior Administration Official on Air Force One yesterday to the pool, the Wall Street Journal reports on what every Democratic media buyer knows: the pharmaceutical companies have been a huge presence on TV here at the end.

Minnesota Senate contenders Walter Mondale (D) and Norm Coleman (R) will debate today at 11:00 am ET at the Fitzgerald Theatre in St. Paul; the Coleman campaign will hold a rally beforehand.

One late-breaking Senate race development: even if Democrat Mark Pryor ends up winning the Arkansas seat, our hats are off to the Republican operatives who used the conservative "new media" machinery that Al Gore so decries by getting the AP (we repeat: THE ASSOCIATED PRESS, and right out of Fournier's old bureau!) to include the words "responding to an item on the Drudge Report Web site of Internet gossip columnist Matt Drudge" in a story.

"The Pryor campaign confirmed that Ortenzia Osorio, who lives in a mobile home in southwest Little Rock, had been employed by the Attorney General, but denied that she was in the United States illegally." LINK

"'When Ortenzia came to us she provided documentation stating she was in the United States legally. She did light housework for us, as needed, for a few hours a week and only for a few months. We have never employed an illegal immigrant,' [a] statement said."

"When question[ed] Sunday by The Washington Times, the Pryor campaign would not answer as to whether Pryor paid either Social Security, or income taxes on Osorio's wages."

The story does not make the front page of the Democrat-Gazette, and we're not sure about where this might go.

Pryor's opponent, Sen. Tim Hutchinson (R), will still go into election day as the most vulnerable incumbent Senator in America, but he can't say that the super-brains at the National Republican Senatorial Committee didn't do everything they could think of to help him.

Minnesota Senate race:

After the debate in the morning, per ABCNEWS' Upin, Coleman will have a rally with Rudy Giuliani at Minnesota State University in Mankato, then will take off on a 600-mile, 24-hour bus tour.

The Star-Tribune compares this morning's debate between to the Lincoln-Douglass debates in 1858. LINK

Hyperbole aside, the stakes truly couldn't be higher for the two candidates.

The format is relatively free form: the two candidates and two moderators sitting around a table.

For us national folks without network feeds, CNN plans to air the debate live at 11:00 am ET.

The Pioneer Press takes a look at where Mondale stands.

LINK

Mondale campaigned yesterday with the Democratic ticket. LINK

All the Pioneer Press seemed to get out of the Bush visit yesterday was that it was quick, and lots of people shouted, "USA, USA, USA." LINK

ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary:

The AP on House Minority Leader Gephardt's Pitt rant yesterday.

LINK

Roll Call's Wallison reports, "A top Gephardt aide disputed the widely trafficked assumption that the leader will step aside if Democrats fail to win the majority." LINK

Tom Daschle, making a play to win the "Greatest Moment of Understatement by a Leader," tells the Wall Street Journal's Rogers: "'The relationship is one in need of repair,' he adds, referring to his governing partnership with the president," in a story looking at the South Dakota Senate proxy war.

And we hate to tattle, but what for Ranit's sake, let's hope the Secret Service doesn't read all the way to the end of the story: "In Aberdeen last week, Mr. Bush joked of returning another time to go pheasant hunting -- a huge sport here at this time of year. Mr. Daschle likes pheasant hunting himself, but resists any suggestion that he and the president could bond in South Dakota's cornfields after Tuesday. 'It may be dangerous giving me and Bush guns in the same setting,' he said with a laugh."

After we saw Senator Daschle live on C-SPAN at a rally wearing one of his sexy sweaters (but no coat), we asked Christine Iverson doppelganger Daniel Pfeiffer if he could PLEASE get the Majority Leader some outerwear. Judging by the look of the AP photo that ran in the New York Times, we renew our pledge to never get involved in the campaign so directly again.

The Washington Post's Leibovich profiles the Majority Leader In A Tight Spot. LINK

Hey, NBC: in 2004, how about not assigning any avowed liberals to cover the presidential campaign? LINK

The vote:

As the Washington Post's Walsh notes, the voting process itself goes on trial tomorrow, with a lot of states not having yet updated antiquated voting systems. LINK

Never underestimate weather's potential to affect turnout. LINK

Failure is not an option for Broward County, FL. LINK

The Miami Herald profiles -- yes, profiles -- the low-key supervisor of elections for Miami-Dade County. LINK

African American GOTV efforts continue in earnest. LINK

Central Florida also has sign high rates of early voting. LINK

The Des Moines Register wonders whether more early voting signals a higher total turnout. LINK

In Baltimore, "hundreds of fliers were posted in Baltimore City in predominantly black neighborhoods warning prospective voters that they could not vote if they had outstanding parking tickets or had been late with their rent." LINK

Democrats accuse Republicans of trying to intimidate black voters; Republicans say Democrats want to pay black voters to vote.

In South Carolina, according to a reader: "I am a SC registered voter who received a mailing from 'Hunting and Shooting Sports Heritage Foundation' that listed its Website as . The pamphlet states the following concerning Judge Alex Sanders: "Some people will say anything to get elected? Alex Sanders wants you to believe he supports your rights, but the record says otherwise..."'"

Would we be surprised if South Carolina saw the most last-minute phones/flyers/radio/etc. of questionable factuality and origin? The answer: no.

Voters in Maryland -- and even one or two voters outside of Maryland -- are being inundated with GOTV calls from a variety of sources.

"The Maryland attorney general is reviewing the Democratic Party's plan to hire more than 1,000 people as poll workers on Election Day and pay them up to $110 each, a get-out-the-vote strategy that Republicans decried as a flagrant violation of state law." LINK

A reader in Austin, TX says she received a recorded call from Cher, urging her to vote for pro-choice candidates.

According to a North Carolina reader, flyers are appearing in mailboxes taking Senate candidate Erskine Bowles to task for alleged irregularities in his business career.

A Colorado reader says his doorjamb was the resting place for a League of Conservation Voters flyer comparing the records of Sen. Wayne Allard (R) and challenger Tom Strickland (D).

Politics:

What a perfect way to welcome a Legendary Figure back to the fray for the week -- foodie RW "Johnny" Apple joins the "truth is stranger than fiction" coverage of two fellas Johnny once wrote about who go by the names "Mondale" and "Lautenberg." LINK

Dear Tim: great modesty on "Today," not mentioning that Florida Democratic gubernatorial nominee Bill McBride's failure to, in Katie's words, "fare well in a recent debate" was all your doing.

But, having given you full props for that, we gotta say: while both you and DNC chairman Terry McAuliffe have access to millions of dollars in personal wealth, RNC chairman Marc Racicot is a simple man from Montana with more kids than you can fathom, and he can't just casually write out $1,000 checks. LINK

Roll Call's Kane discloses an 11th-hour Democratic party sugar mommy. LINK

House Republicans have their eyes on a handful of conservative Southern Democrats who might be tempted to switch parties after the elections, says Roll Call's Crabtree. LINK

The Boston Globe's Klein writes up a story that could run in almost any state in the country, and which we think is important to Note: in these tough economic times, the next governor is going to have to make some seriously tough choices on program and spending cuts. LINK

The smartest political reporters in America signed up to travel with the Thelma and Louise of Republican politics as they sweep through swing districts. LINK

No offense to Mike Janofsky, but why doesn't the New York Times put Eric Schmitt on Vice President Cheney for the homestretch? LINK

Because we love this stuff: Roll Call's Cillizza lists 20 political consultants with a lot on the line tomorrow. LINK

NEW HAMPSHIRE

Bob Novak totally nails the New Hampshire Senate race, complete with the failure of national Republicans to recognize this as a trouble spot; the identification of Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D) as "Betty Crocker with a blackjack" running a "perfect" campaign; the kudos to consultants Grunwald and Romash as "two of her party's smartest national strategists;" and perfect calibration on the Bob Smith factor. LINK

Novak's only flaw today: his apparent refusal to notice the comparably "tactical" campaigns being run by many Republican candidates.

Shaheen and Republican John Sununu debated one final time last night. LINK

Rudy Giuliani will endorse Sununu at 5:00 pm in Manchester today. Did anyone ever really figure out why Rudy endorsed Bob Smith in the primary?

Not like you don't already know this but in this Senate race, it's all about the independents. LINK

COLORADO

Senate candidate Tom Strickland (D) was hoarse from recording Hispanic radio announcements, and Vice President Cheney was "clearly tired" as he stumped for Strickland's opponent Sen. Wayne Allard (R).

College campuses (at least in Denver) aren't fruitful trees for political volunteers anymore. LINK

The shortcut to Colorado politics: the vote tallies in Jefferson, Adams and Arapahoe counties will probably influence the balance of the Senate race. LINK

ABCNEWS' Robbins reports from Denver, "The campaign ads are... overwhelming... and mean, mean, mean. The nastiest seem to be the anti-Strickland ads, although there is plenty of fur flying both ways. Makes California election ads seem like a pillow fight... The local CW seems to tilt a little toward Strickland if only because there are still so many undecideds? But the numbers are too small to really tell us anything reliable at this point. The possibility of no definitive winner Tuesday night looms large over the exhausted campaign folks."

ARKANSAS

We don't have a link to it, but the lead story in the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette begins like this: "As some Arkansas candidates worry that Pulaski County?s voting snafus are eroding voter confidence, leaders of the state Democratic and Republican parties are preparing for the more drastic consequences of ballot blunders: lawsuits and recounts."

NORTH CAROLINA

Get out the vote: Democratic Senate nominee Erskine Bowles did a little "preaching" Sunday at a black church and voluntarily invoked the name of his former employer, that would be Bill Clinton -- who has taped a phone message for Bowles, which will start going out today. LINK ABCNEWS' Chambers reports that Bowles received eight standing ovations.

Meanwhile, GOP nominee Elizabeth Dole will do a six-stop fly-around today.

GEORGIA

A WSB/Atlanta Journal Constitution poll gives Sen. Max Cleland (D) a five-point lead over Rep. Saxby Chambliss (R). LINK

Their final debate was nas-TEE.

LINK

IOWA

Republicans in and around Cedar Rapids are SOOO excited about their very own Bush visit today. LINK

MISSOURI

The St. Louis Post-Dispatch's news-of-day article includes quotes from the turnout meisters for both major Senate campaigns. LINK

The Kansas City Star has links to sample ballots. LINK

The Star also looks at who funded the campaigns of Sen. Jean Carnahan (D) and Jim Talent (R). LINK

NEW JERSEY

A Quinnipiac Poll out this morning gives former Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D) an 11-point lead among likely voters over Republican Doug Forrester.

TEXAS

Some news-of-day stories: LINK and LINK

FLORIDA

"Racial politics surfaced in the gubernatorial race Sunday, as Republican Gov. Jeb Bush told largely white crowds that black activists Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton were in South Florida on behalf of Democrat Bill McBride - a claim the Democrats both denied and decried," the Tampa Tribune headlines. LINK

"Each camp set out to rally its faithful Sunday. For Bush, that means conservative, mostly white Republicans. McBride, accompanied by former President Bill Clinton, spent much of the day with black South Florida Democrats, along with the retirees of Broward County's condo canyons, the largest Democratic stronghold in the state."

"Bush's 1,150 mile, zig-zag tour of Florida started Friday with a gift to a newborn in a Pensacola hospital and ended at a Broward County rodeo Sunday night."

"Almost all of the events were in conservative areas with mostly white attendees, even the unscheduled stops. At a Cracker Barrel in Bradenton on Sunday morning, Hank Williams songs played on the gift shop speakers as Bush shook hands with grits-eating diners."

The Orlando Sentinel notes that the gubernatorial race, which used to feature clashes about education, has turned to taxation in the past few days, ostensibly to the benefit of Governor Bush. LINK

By the Sentinel's estimation, the House race between Rep. Karen Thurman (D) and challenger Ginny Brown-Waite (R) is too close to call. LINK

The Herald looks at the other House races in the state. LINK

As we told you a few months ago, Florida voters will "likely be confused" by a ballot measure that asks them to reword death penalty statutes. LINK

CALIFORNIA

Republicans in California are touting internal polls showing gubernatorial nominee Bill Simon potentially poised to upset Gov. Gray Davis (D), but the White House discounts the results. LINK

NEW YORK

Does Randy Archibold feel used by Roger Stone? He wouldn't be the first... LINK

(That's a joke, Roger.)

Meanwhile, Bob Hardt takes the greatest delight possible in McCall's camp being totally snookered. LINK

Here's how bad off the New York Democrats are: they are pining for the leadership of Judith Hope, and they will hold three separate victory parties Tuesday night, a "sign," according to Fred Dicker, of immense discord. LINK

MASSACHUSETTS

Get out the vote: Democratic gubernatorial nominee Shannon O'Brien campaigned yesterday with Sens. Ted Kennedy and John Kerry. LINK

More GOTV efforts on both sides. LINK

"Secretary of State William Galvin said he expects turnout to surpass the 1998 gubernatorial race, where 1.9 million people - 57 percent of eligible voters - cast ballots. Galvin credited the unprecedented spending on TV ads and the tightness of the marquee race for the expected surge in voter interest." LINK

MARYLAND

In of one of the night's potential big upsets, Republican gubernatorial nominee Bob Ehrlich is targeting moderate voters all the way up through Tuesday, with the apparent acquiescence of conservatives thrilled by the prospect of defeating a Kennedy -- Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend -- in one of the country's more reliably Democratic states. LINK

LOUISIANA

While all eyes are focused on a possible control-determining run-off in Louisiana's Senate race, one of the state's congressional districts is guaranteed to see one. LINK

Bush Administration strategy/personality: While the Adminstration continues its hilariously transparent effort to push the Pitt controversy beyond tomorrow, the New York Times has five must-read paragraphs for West Wingers and OEOBers on the standard list of rumors about post-election economic team departures. LINK

As always, Donnie Evans (make that "Mr. Secretary") is staying.

Laura Bush, who will accompany the President on his campaign tour today, turns 56 today. LINK

Media:

Never too busy to cover home news. LINK