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Yes, we are in for a classic "Florida 2000 meets the Sopranos" legal and political battle over some indeterminate period of time and which could stretch from New Jersey all the way to the US Supreme Court.

But, if Democrats can get a new candidate on the ballot, they will have a chance to hold this seat, and that means that they are potentially better off, and certainly no worse off, by attempting these maneuvers.

Because of Torricelli's relationship with the DSCC, which he chaired last cycle, no matter how bad his numbers got, the committee was going to have to spend millions of dollars in advertising in the Philadelphia and New York markets for, essentially, a lost cause.

Now, the DSCC either will have to spend nothing, or they'll spend on a new candidate who actually could win the seat.

For the process-obsessives in our lives: we don't know yet when the Democrats will cough up their pick, or how quickly the courts will rule.

Democrats continue to say they will reveal a new candidate within a day or so.

Who IS doing the vetting of these folks, we wonder, since there is no margin for error?

The main issues are: 1) how quickly will Governor McGreevey (D), Torricelli, and Tom Daschle settle on a willing new candidate; and 2) where, when, and for how long will the legal battle play out?

McGreevey and Torricelli, judging from their morning show appearances, seem confident that this can be resolved quickly with one-stop shopping at the New Jersey Supreme Court, now conveniently controlled by Democrats.

But the New York Times says this is destined for the US Supreme Court, and you can rest assured that Doctor/Senator Frist of the NRSC will take it to the SCOTUS and The Hague if necessary to stop this from happening.

Since the New Jersey Supreme Court is controlled by Democrats, given that it's New Jersey, well, we could imagine an associate of the Governor faxing over to the court a draft of the opinion they will be expected to issue quickly.

We are going to try to limit our making fun of New Jersey stereotypes today, but Democrats' confidence that they can get their guy on the ballot (with or without a Torch resignation) makes us think that they know something we don't.

There is almost no state in the union in which politics remains for both parties such a backroom, just-us-guys (and we do mean "guys") enterprise.

Suggesting either confidence, or that the fix is in (or maybe both), a senior deputy to the attorney general of New Jersey told ABCNEWS that officials sent letters to all 21 county clerks yesterday advising them that they might be asked to reprint their ballots.

Thirteen of the 21 counties have already printed ballots; a half-dozen have begun to send out absentee and military ballots.

Not to be competitive, but the New York Times reports: "The … state attorney general's office did not return repeated telephone calls requesting guidance on state election law, but instead simply faxed copies of the election statutes to reporters."

Democratic State Committee counsel Angelo "Genova plans to file papers today in Superior Court in Middlesex County seeking to block the 21 county clerks from printing Torricelli's name on the Nov. 5 ballot and allowing the Democratic State Committee to name his replacement." LINK

"A draft of those papers released last night argued that if the 51-day deadline were strictly enforced, 'New Jersey voters would be deprived of the opportunity to make a choice between the two major political parties, an opportunity which is paramount under our election laws.'"

A note of pessimism from the Daily News: "A top Democrat acknowledged that the party's chances of prevailing in court were 'not a sure thing.'" LINK

Watch for rhetorical echoes of Florida all over the place, from talk-radio banter over "fairness" to Republican invocation of the sanctity of military ballots.

Assuming Democrats can come up with a breathing candidate with a (D) after his or her name who doesn't have a "dead girl/live boy" problem, that person likely becomes the frontrunner instantly, when and if they get on the ballot, so the ballot question issue is more important, really, than the identity of the replacement.

But the names in the hopper at this writing appear to be Reps. Frank Pallone and Rob Andrews, and former Senator Frank Lautenberg.

Torch himself said Pallone, Andrews and state Assembly Leader Joseph Roberts on Today this morning, but a source informed us right before deadline that Roberts has declined to be considered.

Plenty of papers this morning throw out Rep. Bob Menendez's name, but the Torch didn't mention him and the same knowledgeable Democratic source says he is out of the running, in part because of his alleged dithering over whether he wanted it or not.

State Senator Joe Kyrillos, the GOP chair, was blunt in a statement: "The law does not allow Party bosses to change their candidate now, after ballots have already been printed."

National Republicans, meanwhile, already are arguing that Democrats can't get a new candidate just because Torch was going to lose.

The New York Times ' overview of the law is quite good, illustrating the main point that opinions about what the law allows vary. LINK

Make this your must-read if you want to understand where the law stands, although it leaves out a lot of stuff, including how fast we can expect the state Supremes to act.

The elephant turd in the middle of the room for many Democrats is Torricelli's refusal to resign. It's quite possible that if the current gambit doesn't work, Torricelli could switch gears and exit the Senate, allowing the party to try to use a different provision of state election law to hold the seat, via a special election.

It is amazing to us that New Jersey state law seems to allow the governor to just cancel an election because an incumbent decides he is going to lose and is willing to resign, but that might be just what happens, and Republicans just might not be able to stop it.

While this process story utterly captivated the political media establishment yesterday, and will for a bit longer, let's all keep our eye on the prize here, cause there's a lot more going on.

Little noticed yesterday amidst the rush to master New Jersey election law was the clearly coordinated Republican assault on Democrats, specifically Congressmen Bonior and McDermott, in an effort to make them appear weak on national security.

We don't know about you, but we got releases attacking "Saddam's Spokesmen" or levying similar if less snarky charges from joints like the GOP House campaign committee, the Republican National Committee and its research operation, and House GOP Conference chairman JC Watts, among others.

The Senate campaign committee, understandably, may have been too busy to put out a release, but they did go up with a new TV ad in Minnesota attacking Senator Paul Wellstone for his past ("anti-")defense votes.

The Pioneer Press truth-squads the ad and concludes that it is "mostly fair and accurate." LINK

If you were forced to sit in a room and watch the NRSC attack ads against Democratic Senators all over America, we posit that your breath would be taken away. This is some tough stuff.

And the only reason the Democrats' reel wouldn't be so amazing to you is that they don't have as much money to spend equally just yet.

The Washington Times ' Lambro writes up Democrats' efforts to stick with the game plan: "With the Democratic Party divided over what to do about Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, and its leadership under growing internal criticism for not forging a clear foreign policy alternative to President Bush's war plans, Democrats head into the final month of the midterm elections without a unified national security agenda of their own." LINK

"The Democrats' political strategy from the beginning of the election cycle has been to run on the bread-and-butter domestic issues that appeal to their political base — women, the elderly and minorities. There is no indication thus far, even with the rise of the war issue, that they intend to abandon that basic strategy at this late date in the election."

"However, Democratic officials say they are spending more money on at least four Senate races in New Jersey, Missouri, Minnesota and South Dakota that they are in danger of losing. The AFL-CIO and other Democratic allies are providing added manpower for phone banks, voter canvassing and get-out-the vote drives. Spending on TV ads by the party and other outside groups also is being accelerated."

Republican National Committee chairman Marc Racicot made the rounds yesterday, holding on-the-record chats with ABCNEWS and, apparently, the Washington Times and saying, apparently, much the same things.

The Washington Times ' Hallow says, keying off that interview: "Republicans, though cautiously upbeat about their prospects five weeks before the elections, worry more about the economy than any other issue." LINK

"Yet, in an hourlong discussion meant to detail his party's strategy for winning on Nov. 5, Mr. Racicot turned the subject away from Iraq and the anti-terror war."

"He argued, instead, that Republicans will be running on the good job they have done in the House in addressing domestic issues that voters care about but that have been stymied by the Democratic majority in the Senate."

"Republican candidates will center their campaigns not on Iraq, Mr. Racicot said, but on the competent and businesslike way House Republicans have gotten things done."

"Mr. Racicot said Republicans in the House have moved forward with tax reform, education and pensions, and on trade-promotion authority, homeland security, energy, the budget, corporate governance reform, a patients bill of rights, Medicare and prescription drug benefits."

Racicot no doubt feels comfortable saying such things because as he travels around the country, he doesn't hear people talking much about Iraq, but his mantra also fits in with GOP desires to not do anything to stoke the notion that they are using the war for political purposes.

President Bush has just one public event scheduled: a meeting with members of Congress to discuss terrorism insurance.

Former President Clinton arrives in London today and will address the Labour Party conference tomorrow.

New Jersey Senate

On Today, Torricelli gave Lisa Myers' set-up piece a less than sterling review.

He expressed his usual abject confidence that the state Supreme Court would quickly allow a new candidate onto the ballot.

He also denounced the notion of a Senate election being decided by "jailhouse" interviews on NBC — just as David Chang's jailhouse interview with Brian Ross was airing on Good Morning America.

Governor McGreevey went head-to-head with Bill Hemmer on CNN this morning and argued, with butter melting in his mouth, that the citizens of New Jersey were entitled to a ballot change so they could vote for a full range of candidates.

The New York Times ' Golden shows the paper's normal level of modesty in leaving out the Gray Lady's role in ending Torricelli's run completely from his account of what happened. LINK

With no apparent irony, the paper's ed board advocates letting Democrats replace the Torch on the ballot. LINK

Deborah Orin's New York Post news analysis is headlined, "Nah nah, ha ha." LINK

Okay, it isn't REALLY headlined that, but it might as well be.

The backward-looking issue here is whether Torch jumped or was pushed.

One Democratic source involved in the process rejects the Bergen Record's characterization that he was pushed, saying that Torch has said for some time now that he would quit the race if he couldn't win rather than lose the seat and, possibly, the Senate.

The Record says: "By Saturday, Democrats said, Torricelli was virtually under siege to reconsider his campaign. Several leading Democrats in Trenton said that party bosses, including former Senator John Lynch and Camden County power broker George Norcross, strategized with other influential party leaders throughout the day in a series of teleconferences." LINK

"Torricelli, said one Democrat, was at first 'violently opposed' to the idea of dropping out … "

"Party leaders said that Sunday night, during a powwow of Democrats at Drumthwacket, Torricelli acknowledged that his time was up. 'But he wanted to dictate his own terms, the way he would leave, when he would leave,' said one Democratic lobbyist familiar with the Drumthwacket meeting."

"Several Democrats said Torricelli immediately rejected being replaced by Lautenberg … Torricelli also rejected the idea that he resign from the Senate, said one official close to the governor's office."

A somewhat softer Trenton Times report says, "Torricelli spent the weekend phoning Democrats to discuss whether he should drop out and he said he was increasingly convinced he was headed for defeat." LINK

The Boston Globe says, "At his press conference, Torricelli said the Senate's top Democrat, majority leader Thomas A. Daschle of South Dakota, had tried to talk him out of leaving the race, as did his state's other Democratic senator, Jon Corzine, and former President Bill Clinton, who phoned him from England." LINK

"But two Democratic aides on Capitol Hill said earlier in the day that Daschle had expressed concern that the party's control of the Senate would be jeopardized if Torricelli did not bow out."

The economy/budget

The Daily Diary of the American Dream/Nightmare: A2 of the Wall Street Journal proves once again how strongly tied consumer spending remains to the president's political health: "Retailers are bracing for one of the worst holiday-shopping seasons in years, but some economists believe consumer spending may hold up relatively well. The reason: rising income … "

"'Incomes have held up relatively well,' Glenn Hubbard, chairman of President Bush's Council of Economic Advisers, said at the annual meeting of the National Association for Business Economics. That, he said, underpinned his expectation that an economic recovery remains on track."

But, on the same page, a hint that Sugar Smacks prices could be the new license plate fees — consumer-driven populist rage that gets taken out on the politicians: "The crop damage caused by the drought is beginning to force some U.S. food companies to raise prices and others to take the unusual step of importing grain."

The New York Times ' Dick Stevenson shows his usual level of credulity when it comes to Bush economic forecasts: "The Bush administration set out an optimistic view of the economy today, saying the drop in the stock market was probably not enough to derail the recovery and that the most critical component of the outlook, capital investment by businesses, would begin turning around by the end of the year … " LINK

"R. Glenn Hubbard, the chairman of the White House's council of economic advisers, told the group, made up of business economists, that if the stock market did not recover from its losses this year, it could reduce the size of the economy by as much as a full percentage point. But he said that any negative effects from falling stock prices would probably be more than offset by positive forces … "

"Referring to capital investment, which has remained depressed as businesses wait for clearer signs that demand for their products is on the upswing, Mr. Hubbard said conditions were 'primed for investment to begin to recover.' But he acknowledged that the timing and pace of the recovery would depend on business confidence, which has been held back by concern about the economic implications of any war with Iraq."

"Mr. Hubbard said the economy would continue to benefit from the Fed's interest rate cuts of last year. He said the economy would also benefit if Congress agreed to make permanent the 10-year tax cut package signed into law by President Bush last year."

"He dismissed concerns about the return of the federal budget deficit. Mr. Hubbard said that he did not think that there was a link between eliminating deficits and bringing down long-term interest rates, rejecting the core of the economic policy followed by President Bill Clinton in the 1990's."

The New York Times looks at how the war is crowding out Big Casino budget stuff that would otherwise be dominating life in the capital city and the atmospherics of the election. LINK

Timing and head count for the Iraq resolution

A Washington Post staff writer says, "Congress hopes to adjourn at the end of next week. House Minority Leader Richard A. Gephardt (D-Mo.) is much more supportive of Bush's Iraq efforts than are many other congressional Democrats, so the White House is focusing its attention on the Senate." LINK

"If Bush can reach agreement with key members, especially Senate Majority Leader Thomas A. Daschle (D-S.D.), on language regarding the role of U.S. allies, lawmakers predict an overwhelming majority of members will back the resolution. Democrats said Bush could win the support of 80 percent or more of congressional Democrats if he makes minor changes to his original war resolution."

The Washington Times says, "The top four leaders of the House and Senate will meet President Bush tomorrow to work out the final details of a resolution authorizing the use of military force against Iraq." LINK

"A Senate vote is not expected until next week; many lawmakers want to leave the Capitol to attend the funeral on Friday in Hawaii of Democratic Rep. Patsy T. Mink … "

"The House plans to vote on a resolution next week. Some Democrats want to revise the proposal to allow the president to use military force only if all diplomatic options are exhausted."

Legislative Agenda

EJ Dionne writes what he views as the epitaph for Social Security "privatization." LINK

White House favored Rep. Rob Portman (R) will hold a pen and pad briefing on the homeland security bill today at 11:00 am.

ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary

Al Gore will appear at a fundraiser for his PAC at 6:30 p.m. tonight at a private home.

David Lightman previews Gore's economic speech tomorrow. LINK

The Charlotte Observer's Hurt reports, "North Carolina's neighbor to the north may turn out to host one of Senator John Edwards' most promising primary contests if he runs for president in 2004." LINK

"His standing there took on greater significance recently when state Democratic leaders decided to hold a primary in 2004 'as early as possible,' according to party President Betty Jolly."

"While the plan still must be approved by national party leaders and Virginia's legislature, the move could make Virginia share South Carolina's nomination contest on Feb. 3, immediately following the contests in Iowa and New Hampshire."

"It would also make the primary in Virginia — which has 7 million people — the largest contest up to that point, adding weight to the state party's endorsement."

"Acknowledging that Edwards' advisers have advocated an early primary, Jolly downplayed the role their requests had in the party's decision last week."

Right about when we were starting to wonder whatever happened to that education policy speech Edwards has had in the works for some time, this news comes from his office: Edwards will deliver a foreign policy address on Monday at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Sometime in the future, dates and forums TBD, he will give speeches on education and the economy.

According to an eyewitness at ABCNEWS, the Edwards family, while waiting for their Georgetown home to be ready, has moved into a sprawling one-year rental in the 5000 block of Tilden Street in DC's tony Spring Valley — a neighborhood best known lately for the old chemical weapons material in the soil, but before that, for the three former presidents who lived there before moving to the White House: Lyndon Johnson around the corner on 52nd Street, George H. W. Bush over on Hillbrook, and Richard Nixon on the very same Tilden Street, three blocks down. And Senate pal Evan Bayh lives just down the street.

And just days after moving in, the Edwards hosted a big party, valet parking included.

While in South Carolina, Senator John Kerry endorsed the Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor, Phil Leventis, who "was a brigadier general with the S.C. Air National Guard until his retirement in 1999. He flew 21 combat missions over Iraq and Kuwait during the Persian Gulf War." LINK

The Rev. Al Sharpton visited Paterson, NJ on Sunday in the wake of falsely rumored gang shootings. LINK

Election Reform

The Washington Post editorial board chooses today to call on Congress to unstick the election reform legislation. LINK

Iowa

David Yepsen urges Senator Tom Harkin to be more "contrite." LINK

"Polk County Attorney John Sarcone said Monday that his office will decide by the end of the week whether there is enough evidence to proceed with an investigation of what Republicans say was the taping of a private campaign meeting of Rep. Greg Ganske and his supporters," the Des Moines Register reports. LINK

"'If there's a decision to proceed with something, hopefully that will be done by the end of the week,' said Sarcone, a Democrat. "'Similarly, if there's a decision that there's no basis for a violation, that decision will be made also.'"

Still no sign of what safe house(s) the Missing Three are hiding out in.

Florida

Democrat Bill McBride will do his best to prevent Gov. Jeb Bush (R) from getting more than 10 percent of the black vote in the gubernatorial race. LINK

The Herald took a snapshot of poll worker training in Miami-Dade County. LINK

"A Florida court decided today not to force staff members of a drug treatment center to answer police questions in a cocaine possession investigation of Noelle Bush," Reuters reports. LINK

New York

Governor Pataki's union encroachments proceed apace. LINK

Colorado

The NRA has endorsed Senator Wayne Allard (R). LINK

North Carolina

The New York Times reunites the perfect subject/reporter duo of the '90s: Kit Seelye does Bob Dole better than anyone else. LINK

Close your eyes, and you can hear the Bobster saying all his quotes right out loud, as he campaigns hard for his spouse.

More than two weeks after the Democratic Senate primary, Dan Blue still hasn't endorsed nominee Erskine Bowles, with potentially a good amount of the state's African-American vote hanging in the balance. LINK

Charging that their opponent backed the biggest tax increase in history, Republican Senate nominee Elizabeth Dole is accusing Democrat Bowles of supporting President Clinton's 1993 deficit-reduction initiative/tax increase; he is accusing her of supporting Ronald Reagan's "deficit busting bill" of 1982. The Raleigh News & Observer says both charges are inaccurate: "that distinction falls to another era of politicians, during World War II, when the federal government first began withholding individual income taxes." LINK

California

A Los Angeles Times poll gives Gov. Gray Davis (D) "a substantial lead over Bill Simon Jr. in the race for California governor, as disenchanted voters turn to the incumbent Democrat as the better of two unsatisfying choices." LINK

And not only can you read Z. Barabak's article, but you can stare into Z. Barabak's bedroom eyes and let him explain the questions to you. LINK

Recall that big farm workers-rights bill? Davis did indeed sign it. It would grant farm workers the right to engage a mediator in their contract talks. Family farmers worry they'd go bankrupt because their costs would rise. They are apoplectic. LINK

Meanwhile, Simon's new commercials acknowledge that he's not perfect. But he's darn good enough. LINK

Massachusetts

The two gubernatorial nominees will face off once again tonight at 7:00 p.m.. LINK

"Massachusetts labor leaders plan to launch an attack this week on Mitt Romney's corporate background and will seek to resurrect an issue that helped sink Romney's 1994 US Senate campaign: his firm's investment in Ampad Corp., a now-bankrupt paper company," says the Boston Globe . "The state AFL-CIO labor council, which is backing Democrat Shannon O'Brien in the race, plans a march and rally Thursday in front of Romney's former venture capital firm." LINK

Meanwhile, "A Quincy law firm that landed a lucrative Lottery contract under Treasurer Shannon P. O'Brien hosted a $500 per person fund-raiser for O'Brien's gubernatorial campaign last night." LINK

Despite complaints from minority groups that the two gubernatorial nominees aren't reaching out to them, and despite assurances from both nominees that they are and will, both campaigns have staffs that are almost all white. LINK

Arizona

Watchdogging needed in Arizona?

"Republican gubernatorial candidate Matt Salmon and party chief Bob Fannin demanded an apology Monday from Attorney General Janet Napolitano for saying they were behind last week's anonymous and illegal telephone attack on her candidacy. The Pima County Attorney's Office is investigating the automated calls, which may have emanated from a company in Florida and which Napolitano says falsely claim her office stood in the way of a mother who tried to reclaim a child given up for adoption to a gay couple." LINK

Most of you know about our own watchdog project: lots of you folks have sent it excellent tips, and we're following up on the apparently sneaky. Watch this page — and remember — we need your help. It does make a difference. LINK

Michigan

The AST — the Alleged Scandal Train — rumbeled East from Iowa to Michigan, where Lt. Gov Dick Posthumus (R) accuses Democratic candidate Jennifer Granholm and Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick of "you scratch my back, I'll scratch yours" for votes" scheme that involves an unsent memo from Kilpatrick asking for Detroit-centric and African-American-centric favors in exchange for his city's support. LINK

New Hampshire

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Mark Fernald's website includes a muscular defense of his tax plan. LINK

A group called Christian Freedom Defense will urge voters to write in Senator Bob Smith (R) on November 5. LINK

Texas

Republican Senate nominee John Cornyn, the state attorney general, promises to bring "Texas sunshine" to the federal Freedom of Information Act, which might please Beltway journalists but probably doesn't sit well with the lawyers at the Department of Justice. LINK

Democratic nominee Ron Kirk's spokesman-on-loan, Robert Gibbs, said that Cornyn doesn't actually "walk the walk."

Kentucky

"Kentucky's two U.S. attorneys and the FBI confirmed they were conducting a federal investigation into whether Gov. Paul Patton (D) abused his power in the course of an affair with the owner of a state-regulated nursing home," the AP reports. LINK

Maryland

"About two dozen Democratic politicians crossed party lines yesterday and endorsed Republican Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. for governor of Maryland, saying he was more qualified than their party's nominee, Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend." LINK

Still, "The group, mostly former lawmakers who served with Ehrlich in the General Assembly, featured just three politicians who still hold elected office."

Embattled GOP Rep. Connie Morella wants to ban ads funded by soft money from the campaign; her Democratic opponent Chris Van Hollen wants to ban negative ads. LINK

Washington, D.C.

Fresh off his write-in primary victory, Mayor Anthony Williams (D) now wants to extend voting rights to non-citizens. LINK

New Mexico

Enron, Global Crossing, Peregrine Systems? Dave Bossie takes after Bill Richardson's board membership in a Washington Times op-ed. LINK

Bush Administration Strategy/Personality

A byline strike can't keep a cheeky reporter down. The uncredited Dr. Milbank, we presume, leads the Washington Post 's White House Notebook today with: "Osama's been languishing seven months without a mention in a presidential speech … A search of the White House Web site indicates Bush has not made an unprompted mention of bin Laden's name since March 8. That day, at a GOP gathering in Florida, the president spoke of 'this bin Laden fellow,' and vowed: 'We're going to find him.' The last time Bush spoke the hated name in any public forum was a July 8 press conference, in which he was specifically asked if he would find bin Laden." LINK

"GOP pollster and wordsmith Frank Luntz said mentioning the chief Evil Doer 'conjures up questions that nobody can answer,' because the government doesn't know if he's still alive. 'We're trying to declare a certain moral certainty,' Luntz said. 'The effort is to remove all gray areas, and this adds a gray area.'" What's this "we" business?

The Washington Post got a kick out of the kick the president got out of Alexandra Pelosi. LINK

Focusing on the administration's favoring of abstinence programs and scaling back on prevention programs, "[p]roponents of comprehensive sex education accused the Bush administration yesterday of waging a widespread campaign of disinformation and intimidation that is hampering AIDS prevention work across the country," says the Washington Post . LINK

Media

Frank Ahrens gets what may be the only byline in the Post today (we're not sure, cause we didn't check every section): LINK