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Per the "light" perception: the economy sucks enough that the party doesn't need its own economic message because voters will be sufficiently motivated by their grim 401(k) statements and other related concerns; voters' historic midterm instinct to vote against the president's party will kick in to at least some degree; the party's union and minority bases will turn out with normal midterm energy; the Washington media and Congress' intense focus on the war is only masking what real people care about and will go vote on; a slice of strategically minded swing voters will vote for divided government; and many of the party's previously endangered Senate incumbents have shored themselves up.

Then there's the "dark" perception, from the Democrats' point of view — that Iraq continues to badly divide and distract the party; that through stalemate, agenda-crowding, and House passage of bills on key issues, the GOP has thwarted (nearly) every attempt by the Democrats to gain election-day advantage from the to-and-fro of the legislative process on a range of matters; that the normal Democratic fundraising disadvantage actually will affect the strength of the coordinated campaigns and be a factor in some key states; and that the party's anticipated net gain among the governorships won't be that big.

Tom Edsall is … Darkman LINK

: "The prospect of war with Iraq is dealing Democratic candidates a triple blow. It's pushing their best issues, such as health care and the economy, into the background, while also damaging two crucial campaign operations — fundraising and voter turnout — among key liberal constituencies disillusioned over the party's failure to challenge President Bush more forcefully on his bellicose posture toward Baghdad." LINK

"For weeks, Democrats have acknowledged that the Iraq matter's dominance of the news has helped keep voter attention on an issue generally seen as beneficial to Bush and his fellow Republicans. Party insiders, however, are increasingly worried about the potential impact on fundamental mechanics that win or lose elections: fundraising and get-out-the-vote efforts."

"Direct-mail donations to the DNC took a nosedive in August and September, party officials acknowledge. Several of them say a major cause is discontent over the acquiescence of many Democratic leaders to Bush's preparation for war with Iraq."

Of course, DSCC and DCCC fundraising efforts are in better shape than those of the somewhat chaotic mother ship.

And who will be the first TV outfit to get this on camera? "'Our liberal base wants us to stand up and challenge Bush on the war,' said Donna Brazile, who runs the Democratic National Committee's Voting Rights Institute and managed Al Gore's 2000 presidential campaign. She said loyal Democrats in low-income areas and black neighborhoods, along with many women and liberal suburbanites, are bitterly complaining that "no one is talking to us, no one is addressing our issues' on the economy and preparation for war. 'There is a real danger out there.'"

Sometimes, Ms. Brazile speaks more truth than she even knows.

To construct the kind of complex mixed metaphor for which we are suckers, Democrats have for weeks been trying to turn the page on the meta-narrative of the 2002 election from homeland and national security to "what voters REALLY care about" — the economy — against the stiff wind of a media focused on Iraq and al Qaeda.

They are hoping that once the Iraq votes are over with, the "light" fantastic take on things will spread amongst the Chattering Class and in the minds of voters.

Senator Byrd is not helping his party's efforts to move past this vote, of course — either through his typically crafty procedural moves to draw out the debate, or by allowing some Republicans to proclaim him the "next McDermott and Bonior" (the mighty Byrd being so influential that he is worth the weight of at least two House members in the Post er-child department).

But now we have not one but two "on the other hand" graphs for you.

First: on the other hand, it won't be very hard for the White House to keep Iraq in the news all the way through election day. See, for instance, the "how to" in today's Doonesbury. LINK

On the other, other hand, some Democrats say that the war talk just might, eventually and in time for election day, turn off women voters, giving the party some gender gap-facilitated victories in key races.

Carl Hulse in the New York Times offers a breezy if downbeat assessment of what legislation still might pass (not much) in this Congress. LINK

There was a time when Republicans NEVER won the PR wars on the Hill. Now they seem to have chalked up a big victory.

Let us know who deserves the credit: the Hill press staff to the GOP leadership in both chambers, the Bartlett/Wilkinson juggernaut, some combination, or something else? politicalunit@abcnews.com

USA Today 's Stone notes, "most lawmakers who have criticized the resolution authorizing the president to use military force face no threat at the polls next month." LINK

Still, the mood music ain't great for the D's.

White House deputy communications director Jim Wilkinson will chuckle at this headline from the Star-Ledger of Newark, as it so perfectly encapsulates the White House political message: "Iraq War Plan Splits Jersey Delegation: Republicans back Bush while Democrats are divided." LINK

But the mood music ain't great for the R's on the wind-sucking economy.

While President Bush himself has no public events today, the dynamic duo of O'Neill and Evans will hold a presser and take questions on the economy.

As ABCNEWS' Schindelheim reminds us, both gentlemen have been traveling the country to meet with employers and workers to discuss local economic conditions and job creation. "At the briefing, they will discuss President Bush's efforts to strengthen the economy, from cutting taxes last year and enacting a stimulus package this spring to advancing free trade now that the president has trade promotion authority and repeating the president's call on Congress to enact terrorism risk insurance."

As the Manassas, VA shooting keeps the sniper story front and center, the Washington Post says, "The debate over gun control in Congress and in the Maryland governor's race has been quiet this week … House GOP leaders decided to table legislation that would help shield gun manufacturers from lawsuits connected to criminal gun violence. The lawmakers cited concerns that a vote for the measure would put rank-and-file members — including Maryland gubernatorial nominee Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. (R) — in a difficult position." http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A3807-2002Oct9.html

"Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, the Democratic nominee for governor and a proponent of gun control, has stripped references to guns from her speeches and postponed indefinitely any television ads on the issue, aides said yesterday … Meanwhile, Ehrlich, a Baltimore County congressman who has voted against many restrictions on gun ownership, said his campaign would not talk about guns in any forum until the sniper is caught."

All of which means that the gun issue might be counter intuitively HURTING the gun-control candidate in the race.

Americans for Gun Safety, the "third way" gun control advocacy group, has an op-ed in the Washington Post comparing Congress' lack of sniper-spurred action on gun control to the frenzy of legislating on the issue after Columbine. Author Jon Cowan blames it on a politically motivated "bipartisan consensus on guns: Back a narrow agenda that emphasizes the protection of gun rights and tougher enforcement of existing laws, rather than the need for new gun laws." LINK

Iraq Politics

Senator Byrd holds the future of the debate in his hands: he's been allotted a total of 30 hours to present his case, and if he keeps at it, he could theoretically delay the Iraq vote into next week. There are some indications that he intends to do this.

"I'm surprised no one's talking about how much we Republicans are loving Bob Byrd now," a national Republican writes us. "He single-handedly led to the demise of the homeland security bill, and now he's helping to delay the vote on the Iraq resolution. He's right up there with Jim McDermott in firing up our base … " Incidentally, we wonder when(/if) McDermott will appear in a GOP Senate campaign committee ad …

A brief must-read in the New York Times : Rep. Rosa DeLauro, who is seeking to move up in the party's House leadership, distributes talking points to her colleagues on how to talk about their Iraq position. LINK

Is there anything that leaks as lickety split as talking points handed out to Democratic members of the House?

(Answer: yes, but just one thing — any HHS document of interest to Robert Pear.)

The Los Angeles Times offers a good set-up piece on the anticipated House vote on the resolution. LINK

David Lightman looks at moderate GOP Rep. Nancy Johnson and the war vote. LINK

Dock Lockout

Mike Allen offers more of the kind of details Democrats normally would be trumpeting in building their "cares more about the special interests" case against Bush: "The Bush administration held a briefing for business lobbyists seven hours before seeking a court order reopening West Coast ports but provided no similar briefing for labor unions." LINK

"The meeting with industry, held Tuesday morning, was the second at the White House in five days. The administration was still trying to avoid turning to Taft-Hartley late Friday, when Bush officials met with business groups in the executive office building and urged them to promote a settlement by contacting Democratic lawmakers with ties to labor."

"[O]utside advisers warned Bush's aides that providing a rallying point for unions just before the elections could tip the result of some House or Senate races, especially in Rust Belt states where labor remains influential."

"Steve Rosenthal, the AFL-CIO's political director, has begun preparing material about Bush's decision for use in tight House and Senate races."

"A labor official allied with the administration, who insisted on anonymity, said the unions working with Bush 'understand that the White House was put in a very difficult position.' And a senior administration official said the White House is not worried about long-term damage to Bush's relations with labor."

"The White House refused to release a list of the groups that were invited to Tuesday's briefing for business, but officials said the gathering included more than 50 companies and interest groups … "

Democratic House campaign committee spokesperson Jenny Backus told USA Today 's Lawrence that "union members are energized and that heavy turnout could make a difference in close races in states where unions are strong, including Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois, Iowa, Kentucky, Maine, Nevada, North Carolina and West Virginia." LINK

The economy

The three amigos of obsession over the housing bubble are ABCNEWS business guru Ramona Schindelheim, The Note, and the Wall Street Journal , which today says: "Some of the smart money is moving out of real estate."

"[T]here are signs that the run might be over. Rents are dropping for office space, and building prices are likely to begin sliding soon. After two years of increases, returns on real-estate investment trusts fell 9% in the third quarter, according to Morgan Stanley."

The estimable David Wessel of the slumping Dow Jones family (where declining ad revenue give the company first-hand knowledge of how tough times are) writes Big on the economy on A2 of the The Wall Street Journal : "It is hard to be optimistic about the prospects for the economy. The list of things that could go wrong grows daily. Unwelcome developments once deemed 'impossible' are now seen as merely 'unlikely.'"

Wessel warns about deflation, a big default, and more corporate scandals, and ends with this Goldman Sachs Group coda: "Either the U.S. is going to have 'a sluggish recovery' but one 'sufficient to keep the unemployment rate from rising sharply' or it's going to have 'a renewed recession with risks of outright deflation.' Either it's going to be partly cloudy or we're going to have a monsoon. Keep your boots handy."

Legislative agenda

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal on B2 suggests that Congress might try to move a slimmed-down version of the energy bill that is jammed up in conference.

ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary

The Washington Times ' Lambro fires off, "Democrats are wondering whatever happened to Al Gore, who had led an attack on President Bush's plans to disarm Iraq but now seems to be absent from the war debate being waged in Congress and throughout the country." LINK

Gore spokesman Jano Cabrera would point out, and has, that Gore was the one who breathed new life into the whole debate to begin with. Although those not paid to speak for Al Gore might point out that his current hit-and-run relationship with public policy debates just might lessen the impact of his voice.

On another matter, we bet this story will make Gore substantively angry and politically inspired, and it is written by one of his favorites. LINK

Leave it to the New York Post 's Deborah Orin to twist anything she can into an anti-Gore story.

She takes the fact that Senator Clinton is featured as the Kennedyesque boogeyperson in more GOP ads around the country than Gore is as a sign that Gore is being dissed. LINK

Her last two paragraphs, however, accurately reflect a lot of GOP thinking: "But actually some Republicans say they want to make sure they don't get too harsh on Gore in the wake of the New Jersey switcheroo where Democratic Senator Bob Torricelli dropped out because he was headed for certain defeat."

"'After Torricelli we have to make sure we don't drive Gore out of the 2004 presidential race,' says a Republican strategist. 'We want him to run. We want him to be the Democratic nominee.'"

Mrs. Tipper Gore ("MEG" on any 2004 schedules) popped up on Good Morning America and talked with Charlie Gibson about National Depression Screening Day. LINK

She deemed herself to have been "in shock" after the 2000 election, and urged people to go to the doctor if they didn't feel well.

She reaffirmed that her husband hasn't made up his mind yet about whether to run in '04, and said he is speaking out about issues because he cares about them, not for political purposes.

She and Charlie agreed that the Mr. Gore will decide by "early next year" if he will run, but we are certain (calm down, Lieberman people) they meant "by the end of the year," as in December, since that is what Gore himself has said.

"Anybody who listened to Senator John F. Kerry speak in recent months could have easily concluded that he would vote against a congressional resolution authorizing the use of military force in Iraq," the Boston Globe 's Johnson points out. But yesterday Kerry came out in support of it. LINK

Kerry's decision on Iraq gets major reefer and inside attention in the Paper of Record. LINK

Per a Note source, Senator Joe Lieberman has a busy travel schedule this weekend, heading first to South Carolina (his fifth visit to the state) to speak on Sunday at the College of Charleston's School of Jewish Studies on the 2000 campaign, the Middle East, and Iraq. Afterward, he will help dedicate the College's Sylvia Vlosky Yaschik Center for Jewish Studies; visit the Charleston Naval Weapons Station; headline a fundraiser for Rep. Jim Clyburn; and host an event for the Democratic nominees for attorney general and secretary of state;

Monday, Lieberman will be in New Hampshire, where he will meet with the Manchester City Democrats; campaign with the party's gubernatorial nominee, Mark Fernald, and with House candidate Katrina Swett; do a meet-and-greet with a local state senator; campaign.

On Tuesday, Lieberman will headline a breakfast fundraiser for the Nashua City Democratic Committee before heading back to DC.

Election Reform

USA Today 's editorial staff uses Albuquerque as an example of why early voting is a good thing. LINK

Politics

The Christian Coalition's Victory Conference schedule includes, apparently, a five-minute taped message from President Bush tomorrow morning.

Ralph Z. Hallow says in the Washington Times : "The national campaign committees of both parties are fine-turning their money-spending strategies for the last four weeks of the midterm election season." LINK

"At least for the time being, Republicans are not expected to redirect money set aside for the Senate contest in New Jersey to other competitive contests — a possibility that was raised earlier after surprise twists and turns in that race … The GOP is also taking a second look at the race for governor in Georgia."

"President Bush is scheduled to make a fund-raising trip to Georgia next Thursday to help raise money for Mr. Perdue and Rep. Saxby Chambliss' Senate contest. Some Republicans privately argue that Mr. Perdue needs at least a modest emergency injection of campaign cash immediately, but officials are publicly noncommittal."

"National Republicans, however, are close to exasperation with Republican Bill Simon's error-filled campaign for governor of California."

More on THAT below.

And you national political scribes for other papers: Ralph Z. has hit on a vitally important inside baseball topic here, and you would be wise as heck to chase it (we submit with all modesty).

The New York Times offers one of the better pieces yet on how Social Security is playing as an issue in the ad wars, with an emphasis, Noted before, about how Republicans are aggressively fighting back. LINK

The story is pure tactics, though, with more "he said, she said" than a substantive look at the underlying claims of both sides, and the obfuscation that leaves neither party with clean hands here.

We are asking, because we truly don't know the answers: how much Spanish-language media coverage does the president get when he does Hispanic events? And will those events (and the coverage thereof) translate into more Hispanic votes for GOP candidates in 2002?

The '90s are SO yesterday, but it's probably too early for '90s nostalgia.

Still, getting to read about a GOP-written 319-page report attacking the Clintons (for alleged improper receipt of gifts from people with names such as Rich, Riady, Kaye, and Chung), and their spokesperson's (familiar, Ann Lewis-sounding) defenses ("'Responding to the report, James E. Kennedy, a spokesman for Mr. Clinton, said: 'This story is so old, it's not just dated, it's carbon-dated.'") makes us long for a Yankees vs. Braves World Series, first-run "Seinfelds," a roaring stock market, and other touchstones of that decade. LINK

The Washington Post helps further ingrain the phrase "pulling a Torricelli" into the American political lexicon, in reference to the GOP's badly lagging gubernatorial nominee in Pennsylvania. LINK

Last night's Democratic National Committee fundraiser concert rocked into the night, and ABCNEWS' simply-amazing Brooke Brower was there, and deemed it "fairly entertaining."

"The musical highlight has to be John Mellencamp's 'Small Town,' haunting and soulful, a fuller version. The night opened up with Capitol Steps, as cast in a group called 'Singing Chads.' There was also an appearance by the Phantom of the Opera, a/k/a John Ashcroft."

"Sen Frank Lautenberg rolled in late and he was given a resounding round of applause when people realized he was in the house."

"Terry McAuliffe got to introduce Janet Jackson, who introduced Bill Clinton, calling him 'one of the sexiest presidents ever.'"

"Lots of speakers spoke about President Clinton and voter enfranchisement."

Concludes Brower, "kind of backwards looking for a night [devoted to] 'a better future.' But oh well."

Massachusetts

"Former presidents Bill Clinton and George H. W. Bush are scheduled to drop in on the Massachusetts gubernatorial race today in a deja vu of their 1992 presidential contest," the Boston Herald says. "Clinton will join Democratic candidate Shannon P. O'Brien at a $1 million fund-raiser luncheon at the Sheraton Boston, followed by a 3 p.m. rally at the Boston Teachers Union hall in Dorchester. Republican Mitt Romney will counter by accompanying Bush, the president's father, on a 2 p.m. tour of the New Balance Factory in Lawrence." LINK

"Aides all but admitted the Bush visit was organized to draw attention from Clinton, just as O'Brien pulled in former Vice President Al Gore last week to counter the appearance of President Bush at a $1.5 million GOP fund-raiser."

The inclusion of the three third-party candidates in last night's gubernatorial debate made things a bit chaotic. LINK

Seems like GOP nominee Mitt Romney and his venture capital firm made a chunk of money from the sale of medical testing company that was involved in a lucrative "criminal scheme to fraudulently bill the federal Medicare system for unnecessary blood tests," says the Globe. LINK

"The federal investigation never implicated Romney … However, court records … reveal that the fraudulent activity occurred right up until the time [Romney venture capital firm] Bain and other owners sold the company."

Another week brings another Seth Gitell political take-out, and he has a good contextual look at Iraq, war, and Mitt Romney. LINK

New Jersey

Look for one of the funniest TV ads of the cycle to hit New Jersey today on behalf of Republican Senate nominee Doug Forrester.

The spot shows a kid in school failing a test, and another youngster losing at basketball, both of whom decide to quit, saying, "If I fail this test, can I have Frank Lautenberg take it for me?" and "Torricelli can quit, I can quit."

The production quality is high, and the theatrics are wonderful, and/but as with all ads, we look forward to seeing what it might do to move numbers, and how big the buy is.

Meanwhile, Al Hunt admirably traveled up to New Jersey for his Wall Street Journal column today and came back with this reporting nugget: "The Lautenberg camp expects to resolve campaign funding issues today and soon will launch a two-pronged ad campaign: one reminding voters of the senator's bread-and-butter record, the other attacking Mr. Forrester on guns (the Republican opposes any new gun laws but also opposes repealing current gun laws), the environment (he once mistakenly said 80% of Superfund goes to lawyers) and Social Security (he opposes privatization but in the primary supported private accounts)."

And Hunt lulls former Republican Governor Kean into a telling-the-truth-slowly moment in his office with this: "Tom Kean worries whether his candidate can adequately get across a winning message in the short time left. His best chance: 'If Frank Lautenberg looks old or stumbles.'"

Meanwhile, the New York Times says Lautenberg wants the four minor-party candidates in the debates, and he plans to kick in $3 million of his own money, although he plans to raise some too. LINK

(And The Note never, ever means disrespect to the efforts and ideas of other parties through use of the term "minor.")

The Philadelphia Inquirer's Turcol has his own debate-debate round-up. LINK

California

There's "thick gloom" amongst Republicans in California, who fret "that [GOP gubernatorial nominee Bill] Simon's troubles might spread to the rest of the statewide ticket." LINK

"As stunned GOP insiders questioned how his campaign could so badly bungle its attack on Davis' controversial fund-raising practices, the group that started the flap withdrew its complaint to the state's political watchdog agency and apologized--to Simon, but not Davis."

"According to campaign sources, Simon was never supposed to be entangled in the photo's release."

"Simon is set to receive a desperately needed infusion of campaign cash this week from the national party. The $1-million donation, arranged weeks ago, is the last bit of financial help he can expect from Washington, according to Republicans involved in the transaction."

One of Carla Marinucci's experts tells her Simon's gaffe was akin to a "corpse kicking itself." LINK

And we do wonder how all this back-and-forth fits into the master plan of political genius Ed Rollins, who is at the helm of the Simon effort (we think).

In a separate story, the Los Angeles Times reports that Simon has paid $440,000 to the political arm of the group that started the whole mess, noting that that's "a relatively large sum for a campaign barely able to sustain television advertising." LINK

For example, "Over the next few weeks, COPS Voter Guide plans to feature Simon as the prominent candidate in a mailing to a million California households. To get that billing--and a similar display on a mailing during the GOP primary--Simon's campaign has paid $300,000 to COPS Voter Guide, according to finance reports filed with the secretary of state."

The members of Davis' campaign are certainly feeling their oats now over the photo flap.

First, the candidate himself decided to make an apparent New Jersey reference: "Mr. Davis said: 'This whole sorry episode has backfired in Mr. Simon's face. As a former prosecutor, he should certainly be embarrassed, and if he had any sense of honor, he would drop out of the race.'"

Then, the Governor's campaign spokesman, who, although he has a son who can hit a T-ball a country mile, couldn't be much older than the younger of the two Gilmore Girls, chimed in: "'This is the biggest bunch of idiots I've ever seen in any campaign I've ever been involved in,' Roger Salazar, a spokesman for the campaign, said, 'and I've seen a few.'"

On the other hand, Mr. Salazar does have the experience of having worked for the Gore campaign.

The Los Angeles Times plays up big a largely newsless but sorta insightful story on what it's like to hang with Governor Woogie. LINK

Florida

The The Wall Street Journal does Florida class size right on A4.

The Miami Herald 's Wallsten doesn't think Gov. Jeb Bush's "devious" remarks are fatal to his campaign, but they certainly make it easier for Democrat Bill McBride to tickle his base. LINK

Florida Teamsters have endorsed McBride, after thinking about it long and hard. LINK

What does this say, if anything, about the status of Bush/Teamster relations as we move toward '04?

Texas

"Texas' gubernatorial candidates threw mud but drew little blood Wednesday as Republican Gov. Rick Perry and Democratic businessman Tony Sanchez brought their high-dollar race to live television," the Houston Chronicle reports. LINK

"The candidates discussed issues, notably the rising cost of homeowners insurance that has become a major focus of the campaign, and the looming state budget shortfall. They also resumed attacks that have been far more vitriolic in their campaign commercials than they were in Wednesday's mostly civil Houston Chronicle /KHOU-TV debate."

The Chron focus-grouped the debate. LINK

"GOP Senate candidate John Cornyn on Wednesday called on opponent Ron Kirk to pull the plug on a TV ad, saying the Democrat is trying to dupe voters into believing he supports President Bush's tax cuts," the Dallas Morning News reports. LINK

"Mr. Kirk has said in recent days that tax cuts should be delayed until the economy improves."

New York

Geez: how many times can New York 1 remind us that they broke the story of the teachers' union endorsement of Pataki?

George Will's gem of a column about the New York gubernatorial race includes this description of Governor Pataki: "a congenial, intelligent graduate of Yale and Columbia Law School (where he made law review) who has mastered the art of appearing artless." LINK

New Hampshire

The Boston Globe points out that New Hampshire GOP gubernatorial nominee Craig Benson touts his business experience, even though voters might cringe the idea of their state being run the way Cabletron is being run (though not by Benson) these days. LINK

North Carolina

The Raleigh News & Observer looks at the increasingly vehement efforts by the campaigns and the parties to have opponents' ads taken off the air; two ads in the state's US Senate general election fight have been taken down so far. LINK

Hawaii

"The Hawaii Supreme Court refused to order the state's chief elections officer to remove the late Rep. Patsy Mink's name from the November ballot. Attorney General Earl Anzai, at Gov. Ben Cayetano's request, had petitioned the state high court to remove Mink's name and allow the Democratic party to choose a new candidate. The Democratic and Republican parties both opposed the move, but Cayetano pushed for the petition because removing Mink's name would save the state up to $4 million on the cost of two special elections." LINK

Colorado

The Rocky Mountain News plays off a DNC press release to look at what Democrats think of Republican efforts to reach out to Hispanics. Rep. Tom Tancredo (R) is the foil. LINK

"The men behind U.S. Senate contenders Wayne Allard and Tom Strickland went at it Wednesday in a debate far livelier than any of the seven already held between their candidates," the Denver Post reports. LINK By the way, we hear that one of the major environmental groups plans to soon broadcast another issue ad about Allard's record.

South Dakota

Television ads in South Dakota are getting more expensive; it's all a matter of supply and demand. A 30-second spot costs as much as $6,000. LINK

Pennsylvania

Republicans arguably have gone too far in their ads attacking Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D). Per the AP, a Wilkes-Barre station has pulled an NRCC ad seeking to link Kanjorski to an alleged FBI probe.

Arkansas

One of the reasons why the Arkansas Senate race is so close is that Democrats are doing better in northwest Arkansas this year than usual. LINK

Georgia

The Veterans of Foreign Wars, which most recently endorsed Democratic Senator Paul Wellstone (mostly, it seems, for his veterans' benefits votes), has confounded conventional wisdom again and thrown their support behind Rep. Saxby Chambliss (R) in his race against Senator Max Cleland (D), one of the nation's most decorated war heroes. LINK

You have to read down in the story to get the nub: "Cleland's problems with the VFW go back decades. He led the Veterans Administration under President Carter, and in 1979 incurred the VFW's fury over budget cuts that affected veterans' hospitals. At its annual convention that year, the VFW called on Cleland to become a more aggressive veterans' advocate or resign."

A ha!

Iowa

Iowa's leading gubernatorial candidates, Gov. Tom Vilsack (D) and Doug Gross (R), substantively engaged each other once again in last night's debate. LINK

Minnesota

Theoretically, Wellstone and Norm Coleman (R) will debate twice before the end of next week. Theoretically. LINK

Missouri

Democratic Senator Jean Carnahan will deliver the party's radio address this Saturday.

The two major-party Senate campaigns agreed to a debate schedule: October 21 and 24.

Second Lady Lynne Cheney campaigned for Talent yesterday. LINK

Watchdogging

Internet movies are the "It" campaign accessory of 2002; you gotta have one to be cool.

A flash movie is making the rounds of Arizona and Washington, DC, and a watchdogger kindly passed it along to us.

In it, unidentified opponents of former GOP Rep. Matt Salmon's gubernatorial bid compare him to Bill Clinton, and compare his explanation about a lobbying contract to Clinton's insistence that oral sex wasn't sex. Flash Movie

The claim concerns Salmon's work on behalf of the city of Phoenix. After leaving office in early 2001, Salmon served as a lobbyist and was paid about $150,000 a year.

But the Arizona Republic recently revealed that Salmon never registered with the Senate as a lobbyist — and that he had voted for the 1995 law requiring lobbyists to register.

Salmon contends that he served as a consultant, and not as a lobbyist.

The flash movie lays out its version of the facts, and then shows a clip of Clinton testifying before the grand jury.

Then, in white-on-black lettering, the words:

"Hey Matt, In Arizona, 'sex' is sex. And lobbying is 'lobbying.'"

The musical score, so far as we can tell, is "Sympathy for the Devil."

Salmon campaign aides said yesterday they hadn't seen the movie, and a staffer for Salmon's opponent, Democratic Attorney General Janet Napolitano, also disavowed knowledge.

The web site host is Dr-Spin.com; there's no number or contact info, provided. A search of domain names led us to a Severns Grossfeld of Tempe, AZ and from there, to a political consultant company called The Media Guys. LINK

The Media Guys produce television ads and have consulted for entities like the City of Phoenix, the Rural-Metro ambulance corporation, and the Professional Firefighters of Arizona.

In an interview, Bob Grossfeld, the Media Guy's head honcho and an influential player in state politics, called the flash movie "my equivalent of a letter to the editor." "I just find I'm better able to express myself that way than typing up a letter," he said.

Grossfeld said he made the movie on his own time and has no connection to any campaign or political party.

So what about what the movie's claims? Pardon the Clintonian echo, but it depends on how you define "accuracy." Salmon acknowledges that he talked about Phoenix business and other issues with lawmakers over the past year and a half. But he adamantly denies advocating for a specific vote or appropriation.

That distinction, he has said, is the reason why he didn't find it necessary to register as a lobbyist.

The Arizona Republic notes that no one has ever been prosecuted for failing to file as a lobbyist. But watchdogs say that's because the law requiring lobby disclosures has few enforcement mechanisms.

All that being said, none of this would have been an issue had Salmon gone ahead and registered anyway. And Grossfeld says the distinction between consulting and lobbying is "ludicrous."

Salmon has since disclosed his clients and has called upon Napolitano to do the same for her long-ago work as a lawyer/lobbyist.

If you or anyone you know has any more information about the Salmon movie, e-mail us at politicalunit@abcnews.com

And thanks, watchdoggers, for your vigilance all over America. LINK

Bush Administration Strategy/Personality

The Democrats' allies at the New York Times put this on A27 (if it weren't for the war, this woulda been a front-pager): "The Bush administration's choice of science advisers on matters varying from reproductive medicine to lead poisoning in children is drawing criticism from some Democrats in Congress, who complain that the advisers are being selected for their ideology and ties to industry rather than their scientific expertise." LINK

"A House committee voted without dissent … to overturn President Bush's executive order that delayed release of President Ronald Reagan's papers and allowed relatives of future presidents to keep papers secret." LINK

The two First Ladies of the White House, Laura Bush and Elisabeth Bumiller, get celebrated in a New York Times editorial. LINK

A state legislator from Texas who has been confirmed for a federal judgeship appears to have gamed the system a bit too much for the taste of some Democratic Senators in Washington. LINK

A confusing and fascinating tale, brought to you by the New York Times . Expect the world.