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E-mail us: Tips, Compliments, Complaints. But wait: the man who would be maybe Speaker, maybe the Democratic nominee for president, and maybe — just maybe — the guy who can finesse Democrats' unwillingness to be the "repeal the Bush tax cut" party is coming out today with a muscular bundling of the flotsam-and-jetsam Democratic economic proposals that have been floating out there.

Dick Gephardt will make what may be the best effort any Democrat has made so far to offer politically appealing specifics on the spending side, with a semi-nod to the cuts side by going after corporate CEOs and corporate welfare cuts.

The other highlights of Gephardt's speech: short-term stimulus spending on school construction, anti-terrorism efforts and health care; immediate portability of pensions; raising the minimum wage; and extending the unemployment benefit.

NO mention of the tax cut, as far as we can see.

Gephardt will give his speech via Tele-Prompter at the National Press Club. Meanwhile, his close personal friend, Senate Majority Leader Daschle, also plans to give less formal remarks on the economy on the Senate floor, time TBD.

This could amplify the Democrats' message, or, if the media covers them in a certain way, it could muddy the waters.

It's worth Noting that yesterday the Republican National Committee fired off a description of Gephardt's host, the Economic Policy Institute, as pro tax cut repeal, pro big government spending, and anti-trade promotion authority, and tried to tie Gephardt to the organization, in the kind of guilt-by-association rhetoric for which those RNC talking points are becoming famous.

Democratic operatives argue that they didn't need to have put forth a budget proposal earlier, and they don't need to push other economic salves now — that these are just the niggling demands of a media elite buying into the GOP's argument, and that voters' concerns about job security, retirement security, and Social Security, with Democrats simultaneously stoking these sentiments and seeking to persuade voters that they are the party that cares more, will be enough to sway voters in their direction.

They may be right.

And as in sports, in politics, a good offense tends to be a good defense. And while Bush and Republicans obviously are playing offense on the war and national security, they also are trying to make their defense on the economy LOOK like offense by talking up taxes, energy, and terrorism insurance.

Republican National Committee pollster Matt Dowd's memo, previewed here yesterday, goes out today, kicking off what the Washington Post 's Allen and Milbank describe as an effort by Bush and Republicans to blame the poor economy on obstructionist Democrats, mixed with a presidential call for passage of Bush's terrorism insurance bill. LINK

We'll be looking closely to see whether Gephardt's repackaging of those mostly old proposals helps create the Democrats' much needed national wind. Without it, Democrats may not be able to trump Dowd's analysis that even if people think the economy is bad, they're not blaming Republicans.

Democratic candidates are saying these days that they'll stand up to corporate CEOs and the pharmaceutical companies, and that economic conditions are bad.

But Republican ads are making the same claims about Republican candidates, and about those CEOs and drug companies.

And that's the point at which this battle gets taken to the intangibles, beyond the war and the economy, that Democrats also are trying to leverage to their benefit (just as Republicans are working on single-issue voters on guns and abortion). For example, there's the "Mike Lux" argument — the subject of a new pro-Democrat TV ad — playing on some voters' preference for divided government.

Or Al Gore's "Florida anger" argument.

Although Gore gives a lot of speeches not heard by a single national political reporter, those trailing him yesterday in Iowa received at least limited confirmation from his staff that his "aren't you still angry over Florida?" refrain was at least somewhat stepped-up yesterday.

City-slicker Adam Nagourney of the New York Times (a hard copy of which seems unattainable in Dubuque) makes Gore's Florida argument his lead. LINK

"Al Gore campaigned across Iowa today on behalf of Democratic Congressional candidates, lacerating the record of President Bush and invoking his own bitterly disputed loss in Florida in 2000 as he urged Democrats to vote … "

And in a scene that was repeated throughout the day (and which, trust us, would make Karl Rove gag and say, "C'mon, man, I thought you said you were over this"), "Mr. Gore's references to his own experience in Florida drew ecstatic reactions today at a series of Democratic rallies. His decision to invoke the issue explicitly suggested that after a long silence by many Democrats, Mr. Gore, at least, continued to look at the disputed vote in Florida as a source of continuing anger and a way to get voters to the polls."

The AP's Loven reports that in his remarks at the White House home ownership conference today, "Bush was to tout a new analysis from his administration claiming that getting 5.5 million more black and Hispanic families into their own homes — the goal he has set — would give the U.S. economy a $256 billion shot in the arm over the decade." LINK

"[I]n the face of Democratic charges he is neglecting the economy and polls showing voters wants the president to pay closer attention to their pocketbook worries, Bush has been looking for ways to appear a good steward of the economy — even as he continues the war on terror and contemplates military action in Iraq."

"To that end, a Department of Housing and Urban Development report being released Tuesday estimated the combined impact of 5.5 million new minority homebuyers over the decade."

Bush sure has been doing a lot of Hispanic events lately.

Treasury Secretary O'Neill is on the road in Middle America. Today, per his schedule, he already has addressed the St. Louis Regional Chamber and Growth Association, and he'll hold a media availability this afternoon after touring a Boeing Super Hornet assembly plant.

The Washington Post 's Edsall looks at the re-emerging issue of prescription drugs: "It is being framed as a conflict between consumers, who want to pay less for prescription drugs, and drug companies, who say their prices are justified by the need to fund research that could yield more and better medicines. It is surfacing in congressional races in Florida, Pennsylvania, Connecticut and Iowa, among other places." LINK

A trio of New York Times stories would appear to be more about 2004 issues than about 2002, but we wouldn't be surprised if their surfacing now gets used by one or both sides to energize the base and/or to attack the other party.

First, laid out restlessly on the front page, the Times validates the ticking time-bomb that Gov. Howard Dean has Cassandraed for months: "Less than a year after passage of No Child Left Behind, the sweeping overhaul that promised a new era of accountability in public education, federal, state and local officials are taking steps that threaten to weaken crucial elements of the law … " LINK

"In interviews, many education officials around the country said they agreed with the law's intention, but were caught short by its requirements in areas not previously subject to close federal oversight, like teacher quality and student achievement, and by the law's fast-approaching deadlines. They say that under the law, 80 percent or 90 percent of the schools in some states could be labeled as failing, with severe consequences … "

"State and local officials, however, say they have received scant guidance from the Education Department about the new law … "

"But Robert Linn, a director of the National Center for Research on Evaluation and Standards, said pressure would inevitably build for nearly all states to sidestep the law's intent … "

Of course, since Senator Kennedy and other Democrats took their lovers' leap off the bridge with the president on the bill, until and unless they're ready to completely repudiate it, there's not likely to be much political fallout, and that sure as heck ain't gonna happen in the next three weeks.

The second Times story looks at the Holy Grail of center-right politics — the simplification of the tax system. LINK

"[T]he White House appears … likely to spend the next year or two building support for simplifying the tax law and eliminating provisions that they view as inhibiting economic growth, perhaps making the issue a centerpiece of Mr. Bush's re-election campaign."

"Administration officials have said the outcome of the Congressional elections on Nov. 5 will influence their decision on how to proceed. Democrats have for the most part opposed changing personal income taxes in ways that Republicans support, regarding those proposals as efforts to shift more of the tax burden from the wealthy and to middle- and lower-income people." LINK

And finally, Robert Pear reasserts his co-ownership over the welfare reform story, with an update on the latest haggling. LINK

Reading New York Daily News ' Tom DeFrank's mention of "Republican sources" knots up our stomach in anticipation; this guy really has really good "Republican sources."

In a story about the president's travel plans:

"The White House refused to discuss Bush's travel plans, but Republican sources said he's tentatively planning to storm through 16 states beginning next week — including an upstate New York rally for Gov. Pataki and another visit to New Jersey for senatorial candidate Douglas Forrester." LINK

"'No President in history has campaigned this aggressively for as sustained a period,' a senior Bush official said. 'He's been relentless — and it's entirely appropriate given the punishment the Senate Democrats have visited on him. Bush has told friends he's absolutely determined to become the rare President who actually picks up House seats in a midterm election."

The Los Angeles Times ' Gerstenzang, writing up Bush's 11th-hour campaigning schedule, notes that in addition to Florida, "[m]ultiple visits also are possible in Minnesota. The outcome of a close race there between Senator Paul Wellstone, a Democrat, and Republican Norm Coleman could determine control of the Senate, where Democrats now hold a one-seat margin." LINK

ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary

Al Gore wraps up his Iowa tour today with events for Rep. Leonard Boswell and House candidate John Norris, then heads to Milwaukee.

Mr. Balz writes in today's Washington Post that while Gore has some inherent advantages that would make him the instant frontrunner is he decides to run in 2004, "[w]hether he has used the past two years effectively to build the foundation for another presidential bid is a different question, and on that the balance sheet is far less encouraging." LINK

"For Gore, the Iraq speech marked the beginning of a period of renewed political activity, but it followed a summer of virtual invisibility. In all of July and August, Gore participated in just two political events, according to advisers. In the last month, he has given two major speeches (the second on the economy) and has campaigned for candidates in about 10 states, and will hit at least another five before Election Day."

The Cedar Rapids Gazette approvingly notes Gore's "tough talk." LINK

The Des Moines Register quotes the obligatory 2000 Gore supporters who have 1) thrown their support to John Edwards and/or 2) positioned themselves aloofly until and unless Gore comes calling again. LINK

The Boston Globe 's Johnson tailed Senator John Kerry to Phoenix, where Kerry "accused the Bush administration of using hollow rhetoric to address the concerns of Hispanics." LINK

"The Massachusetts Democrat contrasted it with his own devotion to Hispanic causes, which he said started when he returned from Vietnam disillusioned with US policy in Southeast Asia and the disproportionate number of casualties suffered by front-line troops who were mostly black and Latino."

"Kerry is a regular Spanish speaker, an offshoot of the Italian he learned as a child. His wife, Teresa Heinz, is a native of Mozambique, where the local language is Portuguese. Hispanic audiences are particularly fond of hearing from her."

Johnson also notes that "Kerry, who criticized the Bush administration's approach toward Iraq before voting last week to let the president use military force if needed, is back to criticizing the administration before Democratic audiences." LINK

"In a speech late Sunday at a party dinner in Arizona's southwestern Pima County, Kerry rebutted criticism in some political circles that the Democratic majority in the Senate had caved in to a Republican administration."

Also in the Milwaukee area today, Gov. Howard Dean also will do an education event and stump for the Democratic gubernatorial nominee.

On October 26, the Merrimack County, NH will hold their annual Harvest Supper featuring Dean (Kerry did it last year). Cost is $20 per person.

The campaign of Republican Senate nominee John Cornyn of Texas yesterday issued a release bashing Democrat Ron Kirk for appearing with Edwards, on the basis that Edwards is "perhaps the Democrats' most likely hopeful to knock the president out of office in 2004."

The Des Moines Register also fronts Senator Chris Dodd's musings that he'll wait until after the election to decide whether to run for president. Dodd brought presents: Iowa will get about $30 million from the government to reform elections. LINK

The Vote

Federal and state investigators are looking into possible voter registration fraud committed by one outside contractor hired by South Dakota Democrats to sign up Native American voters. The probe reportedly is focusing on the contractor and not on the party or any Democratic campaign. However, the state's Republican attorney general and others in the GOP are stoking this story — which Democrats suspect could have something to do with their awareness of the fact that Native Americans, like other minority voting groups, tend to shy away from authority and may now be deterred by all the hullabaloo from voting even if they registered legally.

The Washington Times runs the story today. LINK

Republicans, many of whom suspect wider, as yet undiscovered fraud, have given notice: if the race is tight and their nominee John Thune appears to lose by a very small margin, he might challenge the count or contest the election.

When we see a lead like this, we read on, even though we feel like we've heard of lots of projects like this one over the years. But hope springs eternal at The Note.

"There are 30 million missing voters ages 18 to 24 out there, and the Center for Democracy and Citizenship is looking for them … As a part of a campaign targeted to these young voters, the center has distributed to 8,000 state and federal candidates a 2002 'toolkit' … [which] contains research-based data to help design a campaign plan to win the young adult vote, including information on how young adults decide their vote, what values they are most concerned with and what they like — even where they are. It also offers suggestions on how to communicate with them through the Internet or by direct mail." LINK

Politics

Today marks the Federal Election Commission deadline for pre-general election campaign finance reports. Between now and election day, campaigns and parties will begin to file regularly. Watch for reporters to begin to discover which interest groups, candidates, and campaigns have fewer resources than expected.

The AP's ace Sharon Theimer, who probably lives at the FEC, manages some new detail about what the final pushes will cost. LINK

In case you missed (like we did) John Harwood's "big races in small places" tour de force in the Wall Street Journal yesterday, which anticipates an edge for Democrats on the economy, here are the other highlights:
-- "The less populous locations [of the close races] affect these pivotal contests in two distinct ways. Republicans benefit because most of the races are in the heartland's culturally conservative states carried by President Bush in 2002. On the other hand, the smaller locales, and their inexpensive media markets, make it easier for Democrats to buy sufficient amounts of TV time to compete with their better-funded GOP opponents."
-- Harwood smartly calls the GOP-controlled House "the legislative bulwark of George W. Bush's presidency"
-- "Even Republican National Committee Chairman Marc Racicot acknowledges a concern about 'intensity' among GOP voters"

Yesterday he bemoaned the lack of in-person and substantive campaigning visible in these midterm elections; today, Ron Brownstein, writing from Iowa, mourns the fact that this latest round of redistricting has shored up most House incumbents and left relatively few competitive races. LINK

The Washington Times ' Lambro says, and we generally agree: "The battle for the nation's governorships is looking like it will end in a nearly even split, with the Democrats poised for a comeback in the industrial Midwest after a decade of Republican rule … Democratic candidates are leading in Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Republicans are running ahead of their rivals in four Democratic-held states: Alabama, Hawaii, Alaska and New Hampshire." Lambro gives Republicans the advantage in several electoral vote-rich states (Florida, Texas and New York), and notes their "surprisingly" competitive runs at the Maryland and Massachusetts offices. LINK

And the Washington Times ' Hallow, basing his judgments largely on the latest round of Zogby polls, says the battle for the Senate is so close that some Republicans asked Republican National Committee chief Marc Racicot to jump into the Montana Senate race last week. LINK

Dick Morris also rates the Senate races. LINK

The Washington Times editorial page takes after the Democratic National Committee in detail for dipping "into the pockets of those union members who vote Republican." LINK

It's only Tuesday, but already this week, Republican Senate candidates have tried to tie their Democratic opponents to Senator Hillary Clinton in debates in both North and South Carolina.

North Carolina

Yes, Republican Elizabeth Dole and Democrat Erskine Bowles debated last night at Meredith College under heavy security and with no audience or attending press. "A tape of the debate was later aired on television stations across North Carolina." The Raleigh N&O says there were no surprises, the two candidates attempted to stay civil, and their campaigns "are expected to announce today whether there will be a second debate." LINK

"Dole twice mentioned Senator Hillary Clinton of New York, to whom Bowles made campaign contributions. Dole mentioned Clinton's husband, former President Clinton, at least three times. Bowles served as Clinton's chief of staff." LINK

No doubt prompting flashbacks among some in the press corps to Dole's presidential campaign, the Raleigh News & Observer reviews her stewardship of the Red Cross. LINK

Gen. Wesley Clark will be in the state today campaigning with Bowles.

South Carolina

The State's Bandy analyzes why GOP Senate nominee Lindsey Graham kept bringing up the name of the junior Senator from New York during his debate with Democrat Alex Sanders on Meet the Press last Sunday: "Mentioning her name ad nauseam and trying to tie her to Sanders is an old campaign tactic designed to tar and feather Sanders as an extreme liberal … By taking on the former first lady, Graham subtly reminds voters he was one of the House prosecutors who helped impeach her husband, President Clinton." But Bandy also argues that "[a]nybody who has known Sanders for any length of time and is acquainted with his life as a teacher, legislator, judge and college president knows he's an independent thinker." LINK

New Jersey

Republican Doug Forrester is going full tilt on war, defense, war, defense, and war and defense, as the Zogby poll shows him trailing former Senator Frank Lautenberg (D) by double digits. LINK

Which gives Lautenberg breathing room to acknowledge that some voters might not like how he ended up the candidate. LINK

The Star-Ledger dug up a court case that, in Forrester's view, makes the case against a switcheroo. LINK

California

Mickey Kaus's trial balloon pops:

"Former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan announced Monday that he will not seek to be a write-in candidate for governor." LINK

Gov. Gray Davis (D) isn't keeping a low profile in these final weeks before the election, his staff insists to the Los Angeles Times , noting that today, Davis will be in Los Angeles "finalizing preparations for a three-week campaign blitz, talking with strategists and supporters, and discussing campaign ads … He will devote much of the week to shoring up his support among Latinos, a crucial bloc of voters for Davis — and a source of simmering discontent as well … On Monday, the Davis campaign unveiled a 60-second, Spanish-language radio spot touting the governor's support for Latinos in policy decisions and appointments." LINK

Republican gubernatorial nominee Bill Simon didn't heavily advance yesterday's campaign appearance by Rudy Giuliani for fear that it would draw protests. So only a handful of supporters showed up to hear and see America's Mayor. LINK

Not a huge shock: the Los Angeles Times endorses Davis. LINK

We admit: we love the phrase "Governor Woogie." Sadly, the Los Angeles Times doesn't dig up a similar nickname for Woogie's Republican opponent Bill Simon, but does give Simon otherwise comparably insightful profile treatment today. LINK

Florida

Gov. Jeb Bush (R) debates attorney Bill McBride (D) at Universal Studios in Orlando today.

On "Today", Bush spoke movingly about his daughter with family psychologist Jamie Gangel.

The Miami Herald watchdogs a state GOP party mailing, noting that it appears to feature an AARP endorsement of Governor Bush. But the AARP says it hasn't endorsed him. LINK

And if the senior vote in Florida hadn't decided the past two gubernatorial elections, it wouldn't be as big as a story as it is.

Iowa

David Yepsen warns that Iowa's 4th district race is tightening. LINK

New Hampshire

Republican Senate nominee John Sununu and Democratic Gov. Jeanne Shaheen were "testy" in last night's debate, and the estimable Dante Scala of St. Anselm College doesn't see a quick rapprochement. LINK

New Hampshire is preparing for an onslaught of get-out-the-vote efforts. The Portsmouth Herald looks at NARAL's plans for the state (and mentions their expected efforts in Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, North Carolina, Oregon and Texas).

It's not rocket science or even fuzzy math why NARAL chose New Hampshire: a strong Democratic woman candidate is running in a tight race where more than 16 percent of voters who turn out (according to NARAL) have identified themselves as pro-choice voters, first and foremost. LINK

Arkansas

Senator Tim Hutchison (R) chose last night's debate to argue that obstructionist Senate Democrats refused to confirm qualified judges. From the write-ups, Democratic nominee Mark Pryor scored more points by urging Hutchison to stop "blaming" and start explaining. Also last night: those Reform Voter Project ads were a subject of discussion, no doubt making proprietor David Donnelly a happy man. LINK

Massachusetts

Republican gubernatorial nominee "Mitt Romney slammed acting Gov. Jane Swift's budget-balancing program cuts as 'destructive' yesterday — even while he and Democratic opponent Shannon O'Brien failed to offer immediate fixes to the state's snowballing fiscal crisis … O'Brien, meanwhile, seized on Romney's criticism of the health care cuts — pointing out that his investment company, Bain Capital, yanked workers' health care benefits during a 1992 takeover of Indiana-based Ampad Corp." LINK

Maryland

"The Democrats who want her seat — and who have redrawn her heavily Democratic district to make it happen — frame a vote for [moderate GOP Rep. Connie] Morella as a vote for the conservative GOP House leadership" — and there's a feeling in the air that it may well be working. LINK

Morella leads EJ Dionne's column speculating on the Republican moderate as an endangered species. LINK

Connecticut

The Hartford Courant writers and their editors clearly didn't like last night's gubernatorial debate. "In a debate short on drama, promises and specifics, Republican Gov. John G. Rowland and Democratic challenger Bill Curry argued Monday night over whether state government had seized or blown opportunities to improve transportation, education and urban life over the past eight years." LINK

The New York Times wonders why Bill Clinton hasn't campaigned for Curry. LNIK

In less gloomy times, the Courant might never write about the endorsement of firefighters. LINK

Colorado

In classic Judy Woodruff style: "Question. Has a glut of negative ads by outside groups made traction nearly impossible for either major party candidate for U.S. Senate Colorado?" "That's the claim made by a new article in the Denver Post today. The article says that negative ads have given voters a lower opinion of both candidates" LINK

Michigan

"Despicable or overdue, most voters haven't heard about Proposal 1 on the Nov. 5 ballot. If voters approve the law, it would eliminate the option of straight-party voting." LINK

Minnesota

"Republican U.S. Senate candidate Norm Coleman proposed a jobs plan Monday that includes everything from tax breaks for rural businesses to federal antiterrorism insurance." http://www.startribune.com/stories/1405/3365649.html

Coleman and Senator Paul Wellstone will debate tonight in Moorhead, MN. ABCNEWS' Mark Halperin is a questioner.

Tennessee

We'll be watching this: "Sensitive campaign material was stolen from the headquarters of Democratic gubernatorial candidate Phil Bredesen during a break-in over the weekend, campaign officials said." LINK

Georgia

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's analysis of Democratic Rep. Cynthia McKinney's primary loss finds that Republican crossover votes were not decisive — only about 3,400 of more than 68,000 who voted for challenger Denise Majette. LINK

Bush Administration Strategy/Personality

"George W. Bush made his seventh trip to Michigan as president on Monday to stump for Republican congressional candidate Thaddeus McCotter and a host of other GOP hopefuls in a nationwide battle for control of Capitol Hill. " LINK

Right after the New York Times wrote up the White House press corps' frustrated pursuit of information, USA Today 's McQuillan notes that yesterday in Michigan, Bush "answered their questions — lots of them. Even Bush acknowledged that it was a remarkable moment." LINK

Check out how Bush defined the difference between a press conference at the White House and one on the road.

The Washington Post 's Milbank profiles White House attorney Brett Kavanaugh, whom Milbank casts as charged with protecting — and apparently expanding — the powers of the presidency as fiercely as he was charged with seeking to restrict them when he worked for Ken Starr. LINK