February 10, 2010
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The Note
Guaranteed Minimum Clarity
 

By Mark Halperin and Elizabeth Wilner
& Marc Ambinder and Brooke Brower


ABCNEWS.com

W A S H I N G T O N, October 16
20 Days Until The Election....

When Democrats first began talking about Social Security during this midterm election campaign, it seemed kinda cute and anachronistic.



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But the fact is, most of the Republican candidates in the major races this fall do want to radically alter the Social Security system.

Democrats have no plan of their own, and they are demagoguing the reality — Republicans are not actually proposing to change the system for current retirees.

But Democrats are right about two things: 1) Republicans have not explained how they would pay for the transition costs of the new system; and 2) the point of the proposed new system is to lower the guaranteed minimum benefit portion of Social Security in order to take pressure off a trust fund that is shrinking because of the change in the ratio between workers and retirees.

Republican candidates, of course, were led over this hill (or will it be a cliff?) by George W. Bush's presidential campaign. Bush's 2000 effort was notable because, despite the best efforts of a handful of journalists and the Gore campaign, Bush was able to get through the entire election without ever admitting that the point of his plan — yes, we are repeating this again because it is sooooo important — was to lower the guaranteed minimum benefit portion, and also without having to explain how he would pay for the $1 trillion or so in transition costs.

The CW is that presidential candidates get more scrutiny than congressional candidates, so it at first seems counterintuitive that Bush would have gotten an easier time on this than some Republican candidates seem to be having this year. But remember how Bush got points from the media, and arguably a pass from some, for daring to touch the "third rail" of American politics (whose fearsome status may once again be restored this fall). And in 2000, the stock market wasn't in such a decline. And in presidential elections, seniors don't dominate turnout as much as they do in midterm years. Plus, Bush had other issues — read: Clinton fatigue — that allowed him to hold his own among older voters.

Here's our "to be sure" graph: Republicans are right as rain about two things in their substantive and rhetorical pushback: 1) Democrats' ads and all the interest group attacks make it seem like Republicans support a plan that would immediately and directly cut the benefits of current recipients; and 2) Democrats, again, have nothing like a plan of their own to save the system.

On that last point, many of the White House's most skilled hand-picked candidates, such as Senate contenders John Sununu and Norm Coleman, are positively Bush-like in aggressively attacking their opponents with the charge that "Democrats don't have a plan — at least we are trying to save the system." This rhetoric comes straight out of the "they haven't led, we will" school.

Writing from Manchester, NH, where this debacle is playing out in one of the cycle's most key Senate races, Walter Shapiro emphasizes the transition cost issue in smacking both sides for telling half-truths.

He notes, for the record, that "the threat of cutting benefits instead of simply adding to the federal budget deficit is purely Democratic supposition." LINK

"Democrats have a vested interest in panicking elderly voters with the specter of their retirement benefits going the way of Enron or WorldCom. And Republicans, from the president on down, blithely refuse to identify the source of money for the costs of a transition to a new system."

Adam Clymer ambled over to West Virginia to see whether Democratic House candidate Jim Humphreys' ceaseless refrain that Rep. Shelly Moore Capito (R) wants to privatize Social Security is working. And he has good news for Capito and the NRCC message gurus: her aggressive steps to inoculate herself, consisting primarily of her insistence that she supports personal retirement accounts and would never privatize the program, seem to have effectively immunized her on this issue.

"[T]he issue does not seem to be winning support for Mr. Humphreys, even though this is a district with many elderly people in a state with one of the higher median ages in the nation, and even though The Charleston Gazette accused Republicans of distorting the issue. Local campaign polls show Mr. Humphreys trailing, and by a bit more than the four percentage points by which he lost to her two years ago." LINK

President Bush's signing of the Iraq resolution later this morning, surrounded by a bipartisan congressional delegation, will be the picture and probably the political lead for the news cycle, which continues to be dominated by the sniper case.

Having already infiltrated Maryland politicking, the case may now be seeping into the national political dialogue. A few of the papers, more of the morning shows, and all of the cable nets play up Ari Fleischer's comments from yesterday, which landed the Bush White House "on the side of the gun industry at a time when national news is dominated by a Washington area sniper who has killed nine people in two weeks," says the Washington Post 's Allen. LINK

And a second Post story says, "both candidates in Maryland's intensely competitive 8th District congressional race yesterday moved to burnish their gun control credentials." LINK

Lo and behold, even with all the sniper and war news, the major elements of the pre-September 11, Big Casino wars are gaining some political currency just in time for the voting by real people.

This news cycle, we have the specter of both parties being for fiscal discipline, tax cuts, and new spending, and against the elimination of existing programs.

Who knew that Trent Duffy at OMB reads Paul Krugman? LINK

We think it's even funnier that budget hawk Duffy (and, implicitly, his budget hawk boss Mitch Daniels) would be bragging about the president's free-spending ways. Perhaps that's not a surprise, though. President Bush, for all this professed fiscal discipline, still hasn't changed from his 2000 failure to name a single program or agency or department that he would eliminate, beyond his pro forma call for the elimination of waste, fraud, abuse and duplication.

Following the Democratic congressional leaders' pair of speeches lambasting Bush and Republicans on the economy yesterday, the GOP-run House is set to vote today on a package of investor tax cuts, which includes House Ways and Means chairman Bill Thomas' proposed extension of the unemployment benefit in a handful of economically hard-hit states.

Dick Gephardt and House Democrats will hold a rally this afternoon pushing a "new agenda for a new House," which by its very name seems designed to counter Republican, media and even some Democrats' charges that the party has no actual economic agenda.

Gephardt himself went some ways toward refuting that argument yesterday with a well-covered speech that included some targeted tax cuts, along with more standard Democratic proposals. Senate Majority Leader Daschle's speech, which did not go as far as Gephardt's, gets mentioned in the coverage mostly as an afterthought.

The Los Angeles Times ' Anderson notes, "the White House offered a strikingly encouraging response to [Gephardt's] proposed tax relief." LINK

It's still the case that the White House is neither afraid of any of these Democrats who might aspire to be president, nor averse to using "this podium" to politically attack or neutralize their efforts.

Alison Mitchell carefully parses Republican and White House reaction to Gephardt's speech, noting how the latter group appeared more aggressive in their opposition than the former. "In a sign of the debate's political importance, House Republican leaders, swiftly branded Mr. Gephardt as a old-style, big government Democrat. 'Dick Gephardt offers regurgitated ideas from the Democrats' outdated tax-and-spend playbook,' said Representative Dick Armey of Texas, the majority leader." LINK

"But the White House struck a different tone. Ari Fleischer, the White House press secretary, said of the proposal for $75 billion in tax cuts or rebates, 'The idea of tax incentives to help stimulate growth is always an interesting idea.'"

The Washington Times ' Lambro saw the speeches thusly: "Democratic leaders yesterday escalated their attacks on President Bush's economic policies, proposing massive new government spending that Republicans scorned as election-year 'snake oil' that would do nothing to spur faster growth and job creation." LINK

"Despite their stepped-up criticism, neither of the Democratic leaders called for repealing any part of Mr. Bush's 10-year, $1.35 trillion tax-cuts. Both Mr. Gephardt and Mr. Daschle voted against the plan, which was enacted last year."

And Shailagh Murray puts tax cuts front and center in the Wall Street Journal : "Still, Messrs. Daschle and Gephardt continue to dance around a larger issue: the fate of President Bush's 10-year tax cut. To combat the growing budget deficit, some Democrats favor freezing reductions for high-income taxpayers that are scheduled to take effect in coming years. But some Democrats voted for the Bush plan — including several of the Senate's most vulnerable incumbents. For now, at least, party leaders are wary about opening that can of worms."

"'This debate about the tax cut or not the tax cut is really not relevant,' Mr. Gephardt said in an interview Tuesday. However, once the economy recovers, he wants Congress and the White House to address the tax cuts and other factors in the government's long-term fiscal health."

"President Bush is on a three-week campaign sprint, trying to blame the economic problems on congressional Democrats," the Washington Post 's Weisman writes, "while a succession of Democratic leaders have decried what they call Bush's failed economic policies." LINK

"House Republicans will send to the floor today their own economic package designed to deflect Democratic charges that the GOP has lost touch with economic concerns."

"Even Senate Majority Leader Thomas A. Daschle (D-S.D.) stopped short of embracing Gephardt's ideas … A Senate Democratic leadership aide said Gephardt had the luxury of proposing ideas without anyone expecting him to enact them. If Daschle were more specific, the aide said, Republicans would challenge him to bring his ideas to an immediate vote, and would then use parliamentary tactics to keep him from doing so."

ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary

While reminding us that he actually gave a big economic speech at the Detroit Economic Club awhile back, in which he actually took a position on the Bush tax cut (i.e., postponing parts of it, if necessary), a Note source tells us that Senator Joe Lieberman will give a(nother) economic policy speech in New York on Friday, in which he will revisit his proposals from the Detroit address.

Gephardt's speech gets that strategically key Boston Globe coverage. LINK

The The Wall Street Journal 's coverage charges that the Economic Policy Institute, who hosted Gephardt's speech, is "liberal."

The Gore-in-Iowa coverage continues. "What seems clear from conversations with rank-and-file Democrats who showed up to see Gore in Iowa for just the second time since the historic presidential election two years ago," the Des Moines Register overclauses, "is that he would start with an advantage over other hopefuls — eight years in the White House has its rewards — but he isn't assured a free ride." LINK

"Cornell College political science professor David Loebsack said by visiting Iowa and criticizing President Bush on the economy, Gore is doing what he should if he's going to run again. Gore made an appearance Monday at the small, private college in Mount Vernon during his two-day swing."

"Whether he decides to run or not, he impressed Loebsack, himself a Democrat who was one of six delegates to the 2000 Democratic convention who supported former U.S. Senator Bill Bradley of New Jersey. Gore was funny, expressive and seemed to genuinely enjoy his 20-minute speech to the 400 students and faculty who turned out to hear him at the school, Loebsack said."

"'He didn't do anything to turn me off,' he said. 'I have colleagues who aren't real big Gore fans, and even they were impressed."

At the same time, Gore also takes his second hit this year on his PAC receipts and his (in)ability to pay his staff. CongressDaily's Mullins look at disbursements and discovered that "[w]hile former Vice President Gore works to raise his profile through a series of speeches, he continues to have difficulty paying the staff of his fundraising committee on time."

Which prompts this response from Mr. Cabrera (who, whatever he's making, should be making more): "Because most of our fundraising activity took place in the final weeks of September, we shifted payroll for those who were in a position that allowed them to wait until the end of the quarter. And at the end of the day, everyone was paid in full and we raised more, traveled more, and disbursed more than we did last quarter."

Here's the formal plug: on Friday, November 15, Gore will give ABCNEWS' Barbara Walters his first formal televised interview since the 2000 presidential election. Mr. Gore promises to address a wide range of issues, including that election and the Florida recount, his reflections since leaving office, his future political plans and criticisms of President Bush's foreign policy and economic platform, and his new book on the transformation of the American family. Tipper Gore will join Gore for the interview, which will take place at the Gores' new house in Nashville; some of the Gore children will also participate. ABC cameras already have joined Gore in Iowa.

Vermont Gov. Howard Dean in Long Beach, CA today may receive the formal endorsement of independent Senator Jim Jeffords, depending on the Senate schedule.

David Lightman rounds up the third-quarter fundraising numbers. LINK

"Senator John F. Kerry … reported Tuesday that almost $3 million was available in his Senate re-election account. North Carolina Senator John Edwards...had $3.3 million. Edwards' figure is a mix of his political committee and Senate account."

"Former Vice President Al Gore reported $102,150 on hand after raising $1.2 million as of June 30, and House Minority Leader Richard A. Gephardt's political committee of Missouri had $22,369 as of Aug. 31, the latest data available."

Lieberman, according to Lightman, "had $580,000 on hand as of Sept. 30, according to documents filed with the Federal Election Commission. He has raised a total of $1.4 million this year, and $2.6 million since his political action committee began last year."

John Wagner picks through Edwards' latest PAC campaign finance report: "between July and September alone, Edwards' PAC sent more than $138,000 to candidates and party committees in Iowa; more than $125,000 to those in New Hampshire; and nearly $90,000 to those in South Carolina." LINK

"The report, which covers July 1 through Sept. 30, showed Edwards' PAC taking in $1.2 million in 'soft money' … Besides soft money, aides said Edwards' PAC also raised $155,611 in 'hard money' and another $225,538 for his Senate re-election account during the period."

"During the most recent quarter, Edwards, a former trial lawyer, continued to rely heavily on his former colleagues for help. Fourteen lawyers or law firms made contributions of $25,000 or more."

"Edwards' largest individual donor, Hollywood producer Steve Bing, chipped in another $300,000, bringing total contributions to the PAC to $555,000."

The PAC paid Bob Shrum "more than $850,000" to produce those get-out-the-vote ads.

"Despite higher figures in some key presidential states, Edwards' spokesman, Mike Briggs, said his boss is focused on North Carolina … Edwards' PAC sent Bowles a $5,000 check in mid-September, after the most recent reporting period had ended. Edwards is encouraging his donors to help Bowles, and he plans to spend the final week before the election in North Carolina."

"In South Carolina, $5,000 went to a scholarship foundation, headed by U.S. Rep. James Clyburn … Edwards also started spreading money around in Michigan."

Gore national security adviser Leon Fuerth has a Washington Post op-ed critiquing the administration's apparent (lack of an) end game in Iraq. LINK

Watchdogging

Yesterday, in this section, we made the kind of mistake that we have tried to warn others against making.

A reader told us about receiving a phone call involving questions about Democratic gubernatorial nominee Carl McCall of New York.

Ignoring our own tightly written definition about how to distinguish different kinds of political telemarketing calls, we wrongly, without enough information, jumped to the conclusion that this call was part of "push polling calls" intended to sway large numbers of potential voters through phone calls under the guise of a real survey.

In fact, there's no indication, based on what we know, that this call was part of a push poll. In fact, more likely, it was some survey work being done by some organization doing research on how to best shape a pro-McCall message to be delivered in some way (perhaps even through more telephone calls).

The content of a push-poll call and a genuine survey call can of course be the same.

And the call we were told about, assuming the reader reported it accurately, could have been either.

Again, see our definitions for why this distinction is important. Survey calls are, in almost every instance, more acceptable and proper than push polling.

We're still interested in trying to figure out on whose behalf the calls in question were made. But we regret the error of jumping to the conclusion that a McCall ally engaged in push polling. LINK

Election Reform

The Senate is expected to pass the election reform conference report today, after which the bill will go to President Bush to sign, as he has indicated that he will. Remember, "[w]hile the new legislation will have no impact on next month's congressional elections, it will put in place a number of reforms before the 2004 White House contest." LINK

No one, aside from perhaps GOP Senator Kit Bond of Missouri, better articulates the Republican position on election reform and voter fraud that the The Wall Street Journal 's John Fund, who uses the South Dakota Native American voter registration case to urge more scrutiny of what he and many others believe is a significant and undercovered voting problem.

Florida

Republican National Committee chairman Marc Racicot ed-boarded at the New York Times yesterday, and as Adam Nagourney reports, Racicot reiterated his reiteration that a sluggish economy will not harm Republican candidates on November 5. Racicot blamed the media for not reporting out the scope of Republican economic proposals, to which Democratic National Committee spokesperson Jennifer Palmieri had this to say: "Here's the evidence that Bush is not paying enough attention to the economy: Unemployment is up, incomes are down, the stock market has experienced record losses … Did I say that poverty is rising? Poverty is rising, and 401(k)'s are falling." Racicot also called former Vice President Gore's recent clutch of policy speeches "a complete mystery." LINK

The New York Times ' Lewis notes that Republicans will use judicial nominations — which always struck us as much more of a base-motivating issue than one for swing voters, anyway — to get out the vote, but he doesn't really say how or why. LINK

The Hill reminds us, "Senator Lincoln Chafee (R-R.I.) hasn't ruled out the possibility of switching parties if the election returns create an even split. Faced with that possibility, [Senate Minority leader Trent] Lott defended his party's treatment of moderates Tuesday, noting that Chafee is involved in the homeland security negotiations and that another GOP moderate, Senator Arlen Specter (Pa.), has a seat at the leadership table." LINK

The Wall Street Journal leads its Politics & Policy section with a take-out on the stalled welfare reform reauthorization.

On Page One, the Journal has a smart look at how one of the gun industry's brightest lights has reconstituted itself.

Florida

The Orlando Sentinel serves up the choicest cuts from yesterday's gubernatorial debate, which features morsels on the state sales tax, gay adoption, Democrat Bill McBride's ties to trial lawyers, and Gov. Jeb Bush's education plan.

"The candidates fielded questions on a stage, taking occasional notes. Bush kept on his lectern a set of black rosary beads; McBride marked his pad with such cues as 'status quo' and 'my plan.'" LINK

Usually the out-of-town papers do a good but not great job of capturing a sense of where a key statewide race stands. But the Washington Post 's von Drehle today has a must-read on the Florida governor's race, in which he compares Democratic nominee Bill McBride to Lawton Chiles in order to indicate where McBride should be by this point, and some of the moves he has used to try to get there: "McBride, 57, has the he-coon's drawl. He has the confidence, and then some. What he lacks is the 35 years of campaign experience that put the old in the old he-coon. The next three weeks will show how much that matters." LINK

"He and his wife, a retired bank executive, used to file joint tax returns. Shortly before announcing his bid for governor, they switched to separate returns. As a result, McBride could claim the smallest net worth of any major candidate — when for all practical purposes he is by far the richest."

"McBride attacks Jeb Bush for cutting taxes too aggressively. He blames Bush for Florida's budget deficit. He reminds voters that Bush campaigned on promises to improve education and fix the state's troubled foster care system — and insists that if Bush hasn't delivered results yet, there is no point giving him more time. But when the subject shifts to his own plans, McBride remains stubbornly fuzzy."

"On environmental issues, such as offshore oil drilling and Everglades restoration, McBride's positions appear to be the same as Bush's, though it is hard to tell because he often demurs when pressed on specifics."

"Though the election is coming up fast, McBride will be in Washington Wednesday and in New York Thursday for fundraisers — including a luncheon attended by former president Bill Clinton."

California

"Less than three weeks before election day, Gov. Gray Davis finally is getting ready to meet some California voters," the Chronicle reports. LINK

"Although the Democratic incumbent has been virtually invisible on the campaign trail, the estimated $40 million he's spent on television advertising will make him easy to recognize when he barnstorms across California this Sunday and Monday." Touch screens are up and running in early-voting California. LINK

The Los Angeles Times looks at Democratic Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamente's bid for re-election, his future electoral prospects, and his motivational stump speech: "'I am short, overweight and losing my hair. If I can become lieutenant governor of the state of California, there is nothing that you can't do.'" LINK

New Jersey

The New York Times notes that Republican Senate nominee Doug Forrester raised only $1 million this quarter, but Forrester's staff points out that he has $2.6 million to spend in the final 20 days. LINK

New York

Comptroller H. Carl McCall (D) blamed Gov. George Pataki (R) for failing to ameliorate a nursing shortage. LINK

And McCall came out in favor of medical marijuana. LINK

The New York Post hears "that top editors at the New York Times are so miffed Gov. Pataki snubbed them by declining to be interviewed, it's likely Carl McCall will now get the paper's endorsement." LINK

New Hampshire

The Manchester Union Leader captures the back and forth between GOP Senate nominee John Sununu and a coalition of liberal advocacy groups about Social Security. LINK

The Campaign for America's Future and the Democratic coordinated committee will love how yesterday played across the state.

For example, the Nashua Telegraph 's Landrigan leads with this: "Republican U.S. Senate candidate John E. Sununu helped write 2000 legislation that would have required younger workers to invest the surplus in the Social Security Trust Fund into private investment accounts." LINK

Sununu pronounced himself "unfazed" as three more liberal groups went up with ads against him. LINK

North Carolina

The Raleigh News & Observer reports, "Trying to stay competitive in the Senate money chase, Democrat Erskine Bowles has now chipped in nearly $3 million of his own money in his race against Republican Elizabeth Dole. Bowles' latest infusion of personal cash — a series of almost weekly loans totaling $1.7 million — came in late August and September, according to new campaign-finance reports due Tuesday." LINK

And yet … "Despite her greater fund-raising prowess, Dole's campaign continued a pattern of spending money about as quickly as it raises it. As a result, Bowles actually headed into the final stretch of the campaign in a slightly better position, showing $1.1 million in the bank while Dole had less than $600,000 on hand."

Massachusetts

Democratic gubernatorial nominee Shannon O'Brien yesterday announced her support for legalizing gay marriage. "No state has legalized gay marriage, and O'Brien's remarks put her to the left of most national Democrats." LINK

Republican nominee Mitt Romney's "campaign accused O'Brien of changing her position on gay marriage, and Romney touted his own endorsement from the local chapter of the nation's largest group of gay and lesbian Republicans, the Log Cabin Club."

"O'Brien aides said that she has not changed her position, but was simply responding to a reporter's question that had never previously been posed: whether she would sign a gay marriage bill if it reached her desk. That hypothetical situation is so unlikely to occur that O'Brien did not feel it was necessary to mention until she was asked that question directly, they said."

The Herald calls O'Brien's announcement a "spur-of-the-moment flip-flop" and says she "spent the rest of the day scurrying to 'clarify' her remarks — issuing several more statements, some of which were contradictory, and dishing dirt on Romney's record on gays. At a Brookline campaign stop later in the day with former vice presidential candidate Joseph Lieberman, O'Brien said, 'I don't support gay marriage. I support civil unions.'" LINK

The Globe also has a story on the gubernatorial nominees' consulting teams, which gives Romney's close friends a chance to gripe about out-of-town media consultant Mike Murphy. LINK

And USA Today chimes in with an arguably oversimplified "Here in a state dominated by Democrats, pundits said it was Republican Romney's race to lose. And so far, the evidence suggests he may be doing exactly that." LINK

Arkansas

We're not sure why this article buries the cash-on-hand totals for the two major-party Senate candidates, because with 20 days to go, the only number that really matters is how much they have to spend. LINK

Minnesota

"In 1996, Norm Coleman, mayor of St. Paul and a DFLer with his eye on higher office, capped off more than a decade in his party as cochairman of President Bill Clinton's reelection campaign in Minnesota. By 2000, Norm Coleman was a rising Republican star who had caught the eye of presidential candidate George W. Bush and was asked to lead his campaign in Minnesota." LINK

"The Wellstone-Coleman money chase has already nearly matched the $18 million raised and spent two years ago by Democrat Mark Dayton, a self-financed department store heir who is now Minnesota's junior senator, and the man he ousted, Republican Senator Rod Grams." LINK

Colorado

"The battle for Colorado's U.S. Senate seat so far has drawn in $8.4 million and is well on its way to setting the record as the costliest political race in state history." LINK

"Republican incumbent Wayne Allard amassed nearly $4.6 million by the end of September, compared with more than $3.9 million raised by Democratic challenger Tom Strickland, filings Tuesday with the Federal Election Commission show."

And these totals don't reflect the millions in interest group expenditures on both sides.

Missouri

"Republican U.S. Senate candidate Jim Talent's latest campaign report shows him entering the final weeks with more than twice as much money in the bank as Senator Jean Carnahan, D-Mo," the St. Louis Post-Dispatch's Mannies reports. "But the bank totals signal little more than different approaches to buying ads, both candidates agree. Carnahan has paid millions of dollars in advance; Talent is sending out weekly checks." LINK

The article notes that the Democratic coordinated campaign has spent more than $4 million more than the Republican statewide effort.

Tennessee

Democratic Senate nominee Bob Clement's campaign last night trumpeted an incoming infusion of money, mostly in the form of advertising we assume, from the Democratic Senate campaign committee. Meanwhile, Clement continues to hammer away at Republican nominee Lamar Alexander's past business dealings. LINK

The Secretary of State's office predicts that early voting totals will hit 30 percent of everyone who'll cast ballots. The office also predicts record statewide turnout, owing to the Senate race, the governor's race, and two hot House races. LINK

Texas

Note the cash-on-hand figures for the Senate race, per the Houston Chronicle : "Fueled in part by help from President Bush, Republican John Cornyn has raised about $8.4 million for his Senate race against Democrat Ron Kirk, according to campaign finance reports filed Tuesday. In all, Cornyn has spent about $3.2 million, leaving the GOP contender with $5.2 million to spend in the final weeks of one of the nation's most closely watched contests. Kirk, who has raised about $7 million so far, has $810,442 on hand, according to the campaign." LINK

"The president's mother on Tuesday became the latest Bush family member to stump for John Cornyn, telling donors that her son needs his help to face down Senate Democrats," the Dallas Morning News reports. LINK

Wisconsin

The next governor faces the rock-and-hard place dilemma of raising taxes or cutting spending to restore the state's fiscal health, a bipartisan panel of experts has concluded. LINK

Maryland

The Washington Post has a good profile of top Democratic House candidate Chris Van Hollen. LINK

Bush Administration Strategy/Personality

"The American Civil Liberties Union plans to announce today a $2.5 million media campaign aimed at the aggressive anti-terrorism policies of the Bush administration and Attorney General John D. Ashcroft," the Washington Post reports. "Dubbed the 'Campaign to Defend the Constitution,' it will include rallies, legislative lobbying and television ads on major networks in New York, Los Angeles, Washington and other markets, the group said." LINK

The New York Times editorial page doesn't like how the Bush Administration regulates meat. LINK

The Agenda

— 9:45 am, White House off-camera morning gaggle
— 10:00 am, House meets to vote on a fourth continuing resolution and possibly a tax cut bill
— 10:35 am, First Lady Laura Bush makes remarks at a Troops to Teachers event, Dayton, OH
— 10:40 am, Senate meets to vote on election reform conference report
— 11:00 am, President Bush signs HJ Resolution 114 authorizing the use of force against Iraq, East Room
— 11:45 am, Treasury Secretary O'Neill address the National Association of Manufacturers, Ronald Reagan Center, DC
— 12 noon, Senate Minority Leader Lott briefs
— 12:15 pm, White House on-camera briefing
— 12:15 pm, closed Senate party policy luncheons
—2:40 pm, President Bush meets with the Prime Minister of Israel, Oval Office
— 3:15 pm, House Democrats hold rally calling for "a new agenda for a new House"
— 6:45 pm, First Lady Laura Bush attends opening celebration for the Mobile Public Library, Mobile, AL

Major Futures

Newly listed events are italicized.

— Oct. 16: Federal pre-general campaign finance period ends
— Oct. 16: Treasury Secretary O'Neill keynotes National Association of Manufacturers board of directors meeting, DC — Oct. 17: Minnesota Senate candidate debate, Rochester
— Oct. 17: Rep. Tom Davis (R) and Rep. Nita Lowey (D) at National Press Club
— Oct. 17: Secretary of State Colin Powell keynotes Al Smith dinner, New York
— Oct. 18: New Mexico gubernatorial candidates debate
— Oct. 18: Consumer Price Index figure for September due
— Oct. 18: South Carolina Senate candidates debate, Clemson
— Oct. 18: New Hampshire Democratic Party Jefferson-Jackson Dinner, with Sen. John Edwards as host
— Oct. 19: Sen. John McCain hosts Saturday Night Live, New York
— Oct. 19: Former New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley visits Iowa
— Oct. 19: AFL-CIO begins pre-election get-out-the-vote rallies
— Oct. 20: Former President Clinton campaigns for Arkansas gubernatorial candidate Jimmie Lou Fisher
— Oct. 20: Sen. Joseph Lieberman visits Florida
— Oct. 20: Sen. John Kerry address Nashua Democrats, NH
— Oct. 20: Former President Bush holds fundraiser for Rep. Greg Ganske, Des Moines
— Oct. 20: South Carolina Senate candidates debate
— Oct. 20: Alabama gubernatorial candidates debate
— Oct. 20: Tennessee Senate candidates debate
— Oct. 21: Index of leading economic indicators for September figure due
— Oct. 21: South Dakota Senate candidates debate
— Oct. 21: Minnesota Senate candidates debate, St. Cloud
— Oct. 21: Missouri Senate candidates debate
— Oct. 21: New Hampshire Senate candidates debate at the University of New Hampshire
— Oct. 21: New Hampshire 1st Congressional District debate on WMUR.
— Oct. 22: New Hampshire 2nd Congressional District debate on WMUR and NHPTV
— Oct. 22: Florida gubernatorial candidates debate
— Oct. 22: New Hampshire gubernatorial candidates debate
— Oct. 23-24: FEC holds rule-making hearings on coordinated and independent expenditures
— Oct. 23: Former President Clinton headlines a megafundraiser for gubernatorial candidate Carl McCall
— Oct. 24: (tentative) Texas gubernatorial candidates debate
— Oct. 24: Pre-general campaign finance report due to FEC
— Oct. 24: Pennsylvania gubernatorial candidates debate
— Oct. 24: (tentative) Texas Senate candidates debate
— Oct. 24: Missouri Senate candidates debate
— OCt. 24: New Hampshire gubernatorial debate
— Oct. 24-25: Sen. Joseph Lieberman visits Texas to campaign for Democratic candidates
— Oct. 25: Durable goods orders, new home sales and existing home sales figures due
— Oct. 25: South Carolina Senate candidates debate, Columbia
— Oct. 25: New Hampshire Senate candidates debate
— Oct. 26: New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton's birthday
— Oct. 26: Karl Rove headlines 2nd Annual Ronald Reagan dinner, Des Moines, Iowa
— Oct. 28: Minnesota Senate candidates debate
— Oct. 30: (tenative) South Dakota Senate candidates debate
— Oct. 30: SpeakUp! Youth Forum with New York gubernatorial candidates
—Oct. 31: Early voting begins in Oklahoma
— Oct. 31: Estimate of third quarter GDP is released
— Nov. 1: Data for September employment, personal income and personal spending due
— Nov. 3: New Mexico gubernatorial candidates debate
— Nov. 4: Laura Bush's birthday
— Nov. 4: Deadline for opening briefs, McCain-Feingold lawsuit (tentative).
— Nov. 5: Election Day
— Nov. 5: President and Laura Bush's silver wedding anniversary.
— Nov. 6: New FEC disclosure and soft money rules go into effect
— Nov. 8-9: Association of American Trial Lawyers Board of Governors meeting, Washington, D.C.
— Nov 10-15: National Congress of American Indians annual meeting, San Diego
— Nov. 17: Vermont Gov. Howard Dean's birthday.
— Nov. 18: Deadline for opposition briefs, McCain-Feingold lawsuit (tentative).
— Nov. 18: Elizabeth Dole campaign e-spam lawsuit trial date
— Nov. 20: Delaware Senator. Joseph Biden's birthday
— Nov. 21-23: Republican Governors Association annual meeting, Dana Point, California
— Nov. 30: Special election to replace Rep. Patsy Mink (D), Hawaii-02
— Dec. 4: Oral arguments begun in McCain-Feingold lawsuit. (tentative)
— Dec. 5: Strom Thurmond's 100th birthday
— Dec. 5: Post-general election campaign finance reports due
— Dec. 9: South Dakota Sen. Tom Daschle's birthday
— Dec. 9: DGA winter holiday event, DC
— Dec. 11: Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry's birthday
— Dec. 13: Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack's birthday
— Dec. 26: California Gov. Gray Davis's birthday
— Jan, 1 2003: New federal individual contribution limits take effect (tentative)
— Jan 18, 2003: Linn County, Iowa Third Annual sustaining banquet with guests to be announced.
— Jan. 22: National March for Life, Washington, DC
— Jan. 30, 2003: Vice President Dick Cheney's birthday
— Jan 30-Feb. 1, 2003: Conservative Political Action Conference, Crystal City, Virginia — Jan. 31, 2003: Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt's birthday
— Jan. 31, 2003: Year end campaign finance reports due to FEC
— Feb. 24, 2003: Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman's birthday
— March 11, 2003: Georgia Gov. Roy Barnes's birthday
— March 31, 2003: Al Gore's birthday
— May 19, 2003: Al and Tipper Gore's 33rd wedding anniversary
— May 27, 2003: Jury selection begins in U.S. vs. Moussaoui
— June 15, 2003: Senate/House/key adviser personal financial disclosure forms due
— June 30, 2003: tentative start date for Mossaoui trial
— July 6: President Bush's birthday
— July 28: Bill Bradley's birthday.
— Aug. 14: Lynne Cheney's birthday
— Aug. 19: Bill Clinton's birthday
— Aug 19: Tipper Gore's birthday

 
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