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You might be shocked to learn at what senior levels of the Democratic party there exists the certainty that the White House is manipulating the specter of foreign threats, North Korea being the latest, for political gain.

The meta narrative of this election cycle, we're about ready to declare today, is never going to shift to "the economy utterly trumps the war." The press simply has become numb to the constant stream of bad economic news, and if we had to guess right now, we'd say that nothing on the economic front — not a huge market drop, not more 401(k) envelopes being opened, not an uptick in some of the negative indicators — is going to revolutionize the dynamics.

Instead, if anything, it's likely to simmer at the margins and boil up, to use one Democrat's turn of phrase, in some races TBD.

To be sure: the economy may wind up edging out the war as THE issue of the election, and that MAY give Democrats the ability to keep the Senate and draw an inside straight to pick up the House. But the notion of a quasi recession-fueled national wind or tidal wave (choose your all-natural metaphor) seems off the table.

And we SWEAR we thought of all this before we found Susan Page's oddly placed (on the front of the "second" first section of the Nation's Newspaper, and deeply hidden on the web) boffo must-read story.

"[W]ith less than three weeks to go before Election Day … ," Page writes, in a piece that features Rothenberg, Walter, Dowd and Rosenthal, "The political truism from Bill Clinton's 1992 campaign about the economy's pre-eminence in elections isn't ringing true, at least so far. Even Bush's pollster, Matthew Dowd, calls that 'amazing' at a time when there is 'an economy growing less than we would like.' A senior Gephardt adviser moans that the economic issues that have seemed most promising politically, from the stock market's dive to corporate crime, 'only last 72 hours.'" LINK

"Why aren't economic troubles doing more to boost Democrats?"

"For one thing, the continuing war on terrorism and the prospective attack on Iraq have helped shape the landscape … There are other factors. Democrats haven't outlined a clear policy alternative, as Republican congressional candidates did in 1994 … Now, Democrats blasting Bush's economic policies seem flummoxed when Republicans ask if that means they want to curb Bush's tax cut."

"What's more, candidates in both parties have become adept at blunting the other side's advantages."

"One more reason that the economy isn't undermining Republicans this year: The news isn't all bad. The economy can seem catastrophic for an Enron employee … or for a high-tech worker … But for someone with a secure job who wants to refinance a mortgage, the economy can seem just fine."

There are some awfully downbeat quotes in here from some leading Democrats, some of whom suggest that things could still change for the better for the party, plus one cable talk-show host (and Administration spouse) who seems resigned to waiting until 2004 for a banner Democrat year.

If the national climate were more in line with what Democrats had thought and hoped it would be, this might count as an October Surprise: the same US District Court judge who ordered the White House to turn over records from Vice President Cheney's energy task force back in August has now ordered them to be handed over by November 5. "If the government does not produce the documents by the November date, … the administration must submit a claim of executive privilege and the reasons for it," says the Washington Post . LINK

"The Bush administration has said repeatedly that the separation of powers doctrine shields those documents from outside review because they might show the administration's internal, deliberative process. But it has yet to invoke the principle of executive privilege, either … "

There are some big pieces moving out there today in terms of newspaper stories and political activity.

This is as good a time as any to tell you that we are making a few changes to our Senate and governor race ratings today, starting with moving the Florida governor's race from Incumbent Party Favored to Toss-up. A slew of recent polling has shown this race to be within or nearly within the margin of error, with an advertising onslaught by Gov. Jeb Bush (R) neither helping Bush break free of the roughly 48-percent mark where he has been stuck for months, nor driving Democrat Bill McBride's support down; in fact, McBride has crept upward since his primary win.

Bush does have a huge fundraising advantage over McBride, which we still suspect will save him in the end. But with the two candidates virtually tied and so few undecided voters, and with the degree to how Democratic anger over the presidential recount will translate into votes still a big question mark, there's nowhere else to park this race for the duration than at Toss-Up.

Item: The Washington Post 's Edsall reports today, "Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) has released documents outlining a sustained lobbying campaign by his office on behalf of a major Republican donor," an executive at Bacardi, "which included efforts to get political appointees of President Bush to overrule career employees at the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office." LINK

The Governor's office denies that campaign contributions had anything to do with the Governor's efforts on the company's behalf.

This is a pretty complicated story, but it's the kind of story that arguably can leave voters with a bad taste in their mouths without really comprehending what it's about, and to the extent the Bush campaign tries or has to spend time explaining it, it's a distraction they don't need.

Item: The New York Times , picking up on the fact that the Governor of Florida is somehow related to the president of the United States, pokes and prods to try to find as many suggestions of envelope-pushing as they can which might suggest the Sunshine State getting special treatment from the feds. LINK

We like Republican Rep. Mark Foley's shameless (and somewhat robust) attempt to win today's LaHood Award: "Representative Mark Foley, a Republican who represents West Palm Beach, said there was 'no question' that Governor Bush has used his relationship to the president to help Florida and, presumably, his own political fortunes."

"'Jeb would be letting the people of Florida down if he didn't knock on the president's door every chance he got,' Mr. Foley said."

"Asserting that Karl Rove, the president's chief political adviser, was focused deeply on Florida, Mr. Foley added: 'If he wasn't using his relationship to his brother, I'd ask for his head to be examined. Karl Rove probably wakes up every morning and says, "What have we done for Florida lately?"'"

If you are going to try to win the LaHood Award, you might as well inflame and incite the man (Senor Rove) who is in charge of handing them out!

Item: On President Bush's visit to Florida yesterday, the Washington Post 's Allen offers some juicy inside-baseball detail, "Democratic leaders said the constant presidential attention to Florida is just firing up their voters by reviving memories of the disputed election of 2000, and some Republican strategists agree." LINK

"Administration and campaign sources said Jeb Bush's media consultant, Mike Murphy, thought the governor needed to run as his own man and argued for minimizing the president's political appearances, while still taking advantage of his fundraising. The sources said that resulted in a test of wills between Murphy and the president's senior adviser, Karl C. Rove, who contended that frequent appearances by the president would benefit both Bushes."

"Strategists for Jeb Bush said the election will have a low turnout, making it crucial to motivate their most loyal supporters. They said no one can do that more effectively than the president, who also can help them attract moderate, undecided voters."

Item: The Washington Times ' Lambro sets the Senate-race scene for President Bush's stop in Missouri today: "Mrs. Carnahan's campaign has been running … ads throughout the state for the past three weeks, charging that her opponent, Jim Talent, wants to privatize the Social Security system. But the latest polls suggest that the ads have not been helping her … " LINK

"President Bush, who wants to let workers invest a small part of their Social Security payroll taxes in stocks and bonds, is scheduled to make his fourth trip to Missouri today to campaign for Mr. Talent in a race that could give the Republicans the one-seat net gain they need to regain control of the Senate."

After visiting Missouri, Bush will head to Rochester, MN to gin up support for the GOP's candidates in that state, then head to Camp David for the weekend.

Item: Forty-two is back on the campaign trail, firing up the base. The Washington Post 's VandeHei notes that "the limits of the former president's appeal are outlined by his strategy of appearing mostly in Democratic strongholds — such as Baltimore today — and at events dominated by liberals, minorities and others who stuck with him through his impeachment peril. Elsewhere, he politicks quietly, in private phone calls with candidates, at unpublicized fundraisers at his New York home, in taped radio messages targeted to minorities and in face-to-face conversations with potential donors, Democratic officials say." LINK

Today in Baltimore, partly/largely on behalf of gubernatorial nominee Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, "Clinton will lead a pep rally at Coppin State University before heading to the Inner Harbor for three fundraisers, including a $4,000-per-plate dinner. Organizers predict the events will generate $500,000 for Townsend and the state party."

"Clinton spokesman James Kennedy said the former president will have appeared at 100 events for 60 candidates by Election Day. And those are just the public appearances."

"This year, in an election in which control of the House and Senate will be decided in the heartland — places rich with socially conservative voters — party leaders are loath to be seen as the "party of the Clintons," says a top strategist for House Democrats."

"It is Clinton's voice on recorded messages that the DNC soon will send to voters, especially in heavily minority districts. In fact, much of Clinton's political activity will be targeted to blacks in the weeks ahead, such as letters to black voters in North Carolina on behalf of his former chief of staff, Erskine Bowles, who is running for the Senate."

Item: The Republican Party and conservatives are playing a very sophisticated three-dimensional chess game on voter fraud.

From the steady drumbeat of concern over Native American voting in South Dakota; to today's Wall Street Journal editorial about a Democratic Socialists of America web posting about bringing volunteers to Minnesota; to Attorney General Ashcroft's publicly expressed concern about voting rights and wrongs — the right is getting five things done at once.

First, they are conditioning the left-leaning dominant media to be as concerned about, and on the lookout for, "voter fraud" as they are about "voter intimidation."

Second, they are likely serving to (inadvertently, for sure) intimidate some voters from going to the polls.

Third, they are in actuality perhaps limiting the likelihood off any illegal voting.

Fourth, they are putting pressure on federal, state, and local prosecutors to be on the lookout for wrongdoing.

And fifth, they are getting yet another talking point with which to whip up their base — a "don't let THEM steal this election" cry that we are hearing and seeing in our media and web life with more frequency and intensity than the Goreian "are you still angry over Florida?" argument of the other side.

Politics of the economy

Calling Matthew Dowd's now-historic memo to the world "a compelling if somewhat self-serving," document, veteran Boy on the Bus Dick Stevenson of the New York Times looks at the politics of the economy. LINK

He 1) touts Senator Joseph Lieberman's expected speech at the NASDAQ today;

2) snags an interview with Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill ("'Maybe two days out of three we see favorable data and the third day we see data we don't like so much,' Paul H. O'Neill, the treasury secretary, said in an interview. 'On balance, our economy is doing reasonably well'");

3) points out the president seems willing to play his current hand on the economy; and

4) neatly sums up the opposition party's situation ("Democrats failed this fall to get serious consideration for their economic proposals, even staples like raising the minimum wage or extending unemployment benefits. They remain split about whether to press for a freeze of the rest of Mr. Bush's tax cut. But Democrats maintain that it is Mr. Bush and his party who are underestimating the political and economic danger of standing pat in the face of economic warning signals.")

By constantly citing Paul Krugman as a must-read, The Note risks appearing to take sides, since he isn't, to put it mildly, the White House's favorite columnist.

But sometimes we cite him because he is making an interesting point; sometimes because he is making the Democrats' case better than any of their elected officials or spokespeople are; and sometimes because he is spot on.

Today's Krugman effort is a front-and-center must-read for three reasons: LINK

1) He demonstrates that — whether the president is actively culpable or not — Bush has failed to "change the tone" in Washington, thus failing to live up to one of his core campaign promises.

2) He points out that the administration and its congressional allies are simply unwilling to address the question of how much of the total of all the tax cuts signed into law by the president will go to the wealthiest one percent of Americans.

3) He implicitly makes one of the most important points in American politics today: that the leading indicator that there is something fundamentally inept and feckless about the Democratic party is that they can't make points (1) and (2) — especially (2) — into the most powerful political trump cards in domestic politics.

Politics of Iraq

The The Wall Street Journal 's "Wire" says: "Despite talk that Bush's war push would hurt Democrats, both parties' strategists say last week's votes hobble a few GOP House members. Maryland's Morella and Iowa's Leach opposed the war measure, yet face antiwar voters energized against the GOP, as does Iowa's pro-war Nussle. In contrast, Minnesota's antiwar Democratic Senator Wellstone might be getting a boost. Two states' Congress delegations were all-antiwar: Hawaii and Vermont."

Remember MoveOn.org? Well, the site/PAC "has raised more than $1 million in 48 hours for what it calls four 'heroes' of Congress who opposed the Iraq resolution. Senator Paul D. Wellstone of Minnesota, Reps. Rick Larsen and Jay Inslee of Washington, and Rep. Rush D. Holt of New Jersey are being rewarded as 'heroes of the anti-war effort' with money to fight their opponents in these last two weeks before the election." Only Wellstone is in a very tough race. LINK

Legislative Agenda

We confess we had to read one of today's Wall Street Journal editorials three times today to make sure we understood it.

We aren't sure we got all the way there, but here is our sense of the Journal's report card of this past congressional session:

They like the tax cuts and the Iraq resolution, but they wish the former had been phased in faster.

They like the trade bill; they are glad the "patients' bill of rights" didn't pass; and they don't like the farm bill or the No Child Left Behind Act.

They seem to blame Congress for all the things they don't like, and, except for a nick on steel, mostly act as if the president had nothing to do with any of this.

For instance, they say, "The education reform that passed last December is something Congress never tires of bragging about, but don't believe the hype." Have they ever heard Mr. Bush talk about the law?

Quick! Name the city that, per the Wall Street Journal 's snappy "Washington Wire," is the "sock capital of the world." LINK

Concern over preservation of that august status is causing GOP Senators Sessions and Shelby to resist Vice President Cheney's efforts to unstick a trade bill.

ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary

Flushed with victory after the passage of election reform, Senator Chris Dodd will head to Orlando, FL today to campaign with Democratic gubernatorial nominee Bill McBride. Dodd, who speaks Spanish, will stump with McBride among the Central Florida Hispanic community.

Senator Joseph Lieberman today, as Noted above, will stop at the NASDAQ to revisit his economic policy proposals from his May Detroit Economic Club speech, in which he argued for scaling parts of it back. In this updated version, Lieberman also will "challenge President Bush's economic leadership and call for an immediate action plan to jumpstart the flagging economy."

We bet this breaks through more with (Gore) donors than with the national press. Those wily Lieberman schedulers sure know what they are doing.

On Sunday, Lieberman also will visit Florida — his eighth visit since the recount. He'll hit south Florida on Sunday, headlining (nice choice of words, Adam) a fundraising luncheon for Bill McBride, campaigning with McBride in the afternoon, and holding a fundraiser for his own PAC that night in Miami Beach. Lieberman will campaign with more Democratic candidates in Orlando on Monday before heading back to DC.

"Senator John Edwards heads to New Hampshire today to address" state Democrats' Jefferson-Jackson dinner in Manchester tonight "and to attend a series of house parties over the weekend," says the Raleigh News & Observer's Wagner. "The three-day trip will be the North Carolina Democrat's third to New Hampshire, home of the nation's first presidential primary, since the 2000 election." LINK

"Among those hosting a party for Edwards is Peter Burling, the state House Democratic Leader."

"But Burling, a major Gore supporter in 2000, said one shouldn't read anything into his decision to open his Cornish, N.H., home to Edwards. 'I was and am an admirer of Al Gore, but nothing should be read into that either,' Burling said."

"Edwards' travels this weekend also take him to the municipalities of Nashua, Warner and Franklin. On Tuesday, he heads to New York for a combination of fund-raising and media interviews."

Wagner also reports that Edwards will appear on "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" on October 28.

Toward the bottom of Jim VandeHei's Washington Post story is this reminder (or news — to those not paying close attention to the Invisible Primary): "With his wife unlikely to run for president until 2008, if ever, Clinton is also advising a number of potential challengers to President Bush in 2004. Several Democrats said Senator John Edwards (N.C.), a fellow self-described New Democrat from the South, appears to be the ex-president's early favorite. Clinton helped revise a speech Edwards delivered to the centrist Democratic Leadership Counsel this summer. Edwards said he speaks to Clinton, sometimes several times a week." LINK

Senator John Kerry will be in New Hampshire on Sunday. Kerry will kick off his visit with a fundraiser for the state Democratic party in Nashua, then a veterans event with House candidate Katrina Swett. Then comes a trolley ride through parts of Manchester, the Exeter town Democratic Committee Chili Party, and a fundraiser for House candidate Martha Fuller Clark in Rye.

"Senator John Kerry, D-Mass., who is considered a possible 2004 Democratic Presidential hopeful, will visit Rivier College Sunday, where he will meet with local and state party officials as well as students, faculty and staff," the Manchester Union Leader notes.

Indiana isn't exactly a key presidential state, but former Senator Bill Bradley will attend a rally and go door to door in South Bend, IN this Saturday with House candidate Jill Long Thompson.

We're prepared to declare the Boston Globe 's Glen Johnson the official scribe of the Democratic convention site announcement build-up, given his close coverage of the rivalry between Boston and New York. "One month before the Democratic National Committee announces the site of its 2004 national convention, Boston officials have secured half of the private money they are seeking to support their bid and New York supporters are ratcheting up the pressure on behalf of their own application." LINK

"Some Democrats say the recent push by New York — featuring personal lobbying by Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton and an unannounced visit to DNC headquarters Wednesday by Representative Charles B. Rangel of Harlem — reflects concern that New York Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg, a Republican, isn't expending sufficient energy on the Democratic bid because he believes the city will lure the 2004 GOP convention."

"The Democrats, including DNC officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity, are concerned that New York could be left empty-handed if the Republican Party selects an alternative, such as Tampa or New Orleans."

"Democrats are almost unanimous in saying that in the four-city competition, Boston is on top and Detroit has made the second-best effort, with New York third and Miami a distant fourth. Boston and Detroit have supplied detailed budgets; neither New York nor Miami has followed suit."

That said, Detroit's bid is widely thought to be hindered by a shortage of hotel rooms in the United States. And those Canadian rooms are unlikely to be either glorious OR free.

Meanwhile, the Boston Herald leads, "Hot gubernatorial races in Florida and Michigan are reviving the Democratic National Committee's interest in hosting the 2004 party convention in one of the two swing states — a potential blow to Boston's bid, Democratic sources said yesterday." LINK

"A month ago, party officials had all but counted Miami and Detroit out of the running because of logistical problems. But the excitement over toppling Republican governors in two crucial presidential swing states has put those two cities back in the running, said a party source."

Sometimes the "Washington Wire," it would appear, uses a lower standard than The Note does (that's a joke, Jackie.): "To aid Gov. Bush's re-election, some Republicans push pre-election nod to Tampa for 2004 convention."

Politics

In addition to moving the Florida governor race from Incumbent Party Favored to Toss-up, among our Senate ratings, we are rating two races as less competitive now: we are moving New Jersey from Toss-Up to Incumbent Party Favored, giving Democrats odds of keeping this seat at the hands of former Senator Frank Lautenberg, and we are moving Oregon from Incumbent Party Favored to Safe Republican, based on the fact that Secretary of State Bill Bradbury (D), while an appealing candidate, simply does not have the money to upset GOP Senator Gordon Smith.

Races we're keeping on the radar screen for potential moves: from Toss-up to Incumbent Party Favored, the Iowa governor's race, where incumbent Tom Vilsack (D) seems to have stabilized his position after an earlier barrage of negative ads from GOP opponent Doug Gross brought the race to a virtual tie, and the Maryland governor's race, where we still think Kathleen Kennedy Townsend (D) will pull it out, but it could be nail-biter all the way through, which might merit a shift from Incumbent Party Favored to Toss-up.

Senate Race Ratings

Governors Race Ratings

Will "Making 'em Forget about Fournier" Lester does a national overview, in which he joins the "we might be down to six competitive Senate seats" chorus; suggests the House is still unlikely to flip; and rounds up the gubernatorial races, in which he accurately describes the (brief) GOP upswing, but doesn't quite catch the edge of the reality that Democrats are now (again) positioned to have the big year in this category which could be the variable that breaks election night's congressional "tie." LINK

People for the American Way appears to be joining the "elect Democrats to serve as a check on the president" refrain with an ad of still undetermined buy size or target market "that implores voters to keep the Republican hordes from overrunning Washington." LINK

Watch for this theme to be part of their get-out-the-vote efforts as well, though implicitly in some cases.

California

Adam Nagourney, having inherited the Tom Davis account from "reporters' editor" Rick Berke, makes the best of it with this lead from the National Press Club balcony: "The Republican House leader in charge of his party's Congressional campaign committee said today that the Republican candidate for California governor, Bill Simon Jr., was running the single-worst campaign in the country this year." LINK

And Mr. Nagourney has the brilliant good sense to do Reporting 101 and get reaction from the "other" side: "Mr. Simon's senior campaign consultant, Ed Rollins, tonight sharply criticized Representative Davis, saying his candidate remained in a strong position to win the race."

"'This race is a long way from being over — just as he will discover that a lot of races that he thinks he has in the victory column today he will not win,' Mr. Rollins said. 'I wish him well. I just wish he would wish us well."

"'It's not very helpful,' Mr. Rollins said of Representative Davis. 'Maybe it's the strain of his job? Last time I looked, his Congressional committee had not put any money in our race, or offered us any money for our race. So I don't think he gets to critique it.'"

"Amid chants in Spanish of 'long live Davis' and 'four more years,' a group of Latino leaders in California endorsed the Democratic Governor yesterday. LINK

New Jersey

The The Wall Street Journal and USA Today a CW look at Lautenberg vs. Forrester, with the same facts and conclusions you have read everywhere else already. LINK

New York

The New York Times has a big ol' poll showing Governor Pataki (R) maintaining his lofty numbers. LINK

Massachusetts

Democratic gubernatorial nominee Shannon O'Brien will deliver the national party's Saturday radio address.

Republican nominee Mitt Romney, saying it is "inappropriate to raise religious issues in a political campaign," is not attempting to "reconcile his financial support of Brigham Young University, which bans homosexual conduct, with his opposition to discrimination against gays and lesbians." LINK

Meanwhile, "[f]or more than two weeks since the end of the month, state Treasurer Shannon O'Brien has refused to say how the state pension fund performed in September, sparking accusations that she is withholding the information because it will damage her campaign for governor." LINK

But: the Herald reports that Romney, who has "made his experience in business a hallmark of the campaign," helped a "shamed business ally" who allegedly "fraternized with and assaulted a secretary" land a new top corporate job. LINK

We wonder which side is sitting on more ready-to-release opposition research in this race.

Maryland

In addition to former President Clinton, House Minority Leader Gephardt also will be in the state today, campaigning with House candidate Chris Van Hollen just over the DC line in Chevy Chase, MD.

Term-limited Gov. Parris Glendening is waiting until after the election — in which his lieutenant governor, Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, is running to succeed him and her GOP opponent, Bob Ehrlich, is running ads attacking the "Glendening/Townsend team" — to make any budget cuts or raise taxes. LINK

Another Washington Post story looks at the $6 million or so that already has been spent on ads in the state's hot races. LINK

New Hampshire

USA Today covers the two major-party Senate candidates' efforts to cast themselves as the more independent-minded candidate and their opponent as the candidate co-opted by his or her party. LINK

North Carolina

"Criticized over earlier debate plans, Senate candidates Elizabeth Dole and Erskine Bowles will hold a second debate that will be broadcast live and include about 200 audience members," says the Raleigh News & Observer. "The debate will be held at 7 p.m. Saturday at East Carolina University." LINK

"Bowles made the announcement Wednesday night at a Women for Bowles rally at the Charlotte Merchandise Mart. He also called himself the 'true feminist' in the race … " LINK

USA Today 's Walter Shapiro seems to wash his hands of both Senate candidates for their negative ads. LINK

South Carolina

Republican Senate nominee Lindsey Graham "last month admonished Democratic nominee Alex Sanders for running an ad critical of some of Graham's votes while in Congress two days before the Sept. 11 anniversary. He called the timing of the ad 'disappointing and in bad taste.'" LINK

"But several weeks later, Graham began airing an ad in which former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani talks about how important it is to elect Graham to the Senate to help President Bush fight 'the war on terrorism' in 'these troubling times.' Sanders said the ad appears to use Giuliani to play on the emotions of voters."

Georgia

President Bush raised a cool million bucks in Georgia yesterday. LINK

"Georgia Gov. Roy Barnes gave himself, Senator Max Cleland and Democratic House candidates a major boost in announcing yesterday — barely two weeks before the Nov. 5 elections — that DaimlerChrysler will build a new $750 million van plant in his state," the Washington Times ' Z. Hallow reports. Republicans are crying that Barnes "'maneuvered'" to have the announcement come right before election day. LINK

Well, we say, that's Barnes prerogative — just like it's Bush's prerogative to visit Georgia on a campaign swing and talk about the war.

"What's more, the new plant will be built in the newly created 12th Congressional District, where Republican Max Burns is competing for a House seat with Democrat Charles 'Champ' Walker."

Nice move, Roy.

Michigan

David Broder does the Michigan gubernatorial race, in which Democratic nominee Jennifer Granholm is overperforming in typically Republican areas of the state because of her support among women. LINK

Young-at-heart David Rosenbaum of the New York Times , a "Political Points" veteran, writes from his "Livonia" dateline to chronicle the contest for the open seat in Michigan-11. LINK

Our favorite parts are his descriptions of the two candidates. First, the Republican, Thaddeus G. McCotter: "Mr. McCotter, thin, stoop-shouldered and balding, prides himself on his intellect … His political enemies call him arrogant and a cold fish. His allies say he is simply shy and introspective."

And the Democrat, Kevin Kelley: "Mr. Kelley is shaggy-haired with a bearlike physique. He speaks loudly, laughs easily and has a knack for remembering names and faces … Mr. Kelley's friends say he is warm and outgoing, a natural politician. His opponents say he is simply a polished back-slapper."

State supreme court candidates have hashed through some of the ugliest politicking in the Michigan, though the much less suspenseful governor's race has gotten all the attention. LINK

Ohio

"Short on money, the Democratic candidate for Ohio governor is trying to run his entire ad campaign on the Internet." Tim "Hagan has created a full-fledged Internet campaign with a series of advertisements featuring [GOP Gov. Bob] Taft as a duck avoiding issues. The ads run longer than traditional television advertisements and mix text, video and sound in a way more suitable to the Internet. They can be seen at www.taftquack.com and other sites." LINK

"The results have been mixed."

Colorado

More than $36 million has been spent this year on political campaigns in Colorado, a new record. Do local papers every adjust for inflation when they make these claims? LINK

Connecticut

A Quinnipiac Poll of 398 likely voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent gives Rep. Nancy Johnson (R) an 18-point leader over Rep. Jim Maloney (D). Maloney's campaign says there's no way the race can be that un-tight. LINK

Ralph Nader blasted Connecticut's two US Senators for allegedly ignoring Bill Curry's gubernatorial campaign. LINK

Florida

The presidential "cachet" was partially eclipsed by word that Noelle Bush was going to jail, and so the Florida media largely focused on Governor Bush's reaction to it, and ignored the glow that his brother gave off. LINK

Wonder how this will play: Smith and Elizabeth Bagley, who feted McBride in Washington last night, support an end to the US embargo of Cuba. LINK

Mr. McBride is in Gotham City today, where he is supposed to be hanging out and raising money with former Senator Bob Kerrey and (we think) a very busy Bill Clinton.

The campaign against a gay rights ordinance in Orlando is heating up, with organized and independent groups sending thousands of direct mail pieces against it. LINK

Miami-Dade election officials say preparations are on time. LINK

South Dakota

"A woman identifying herself as Becky Red Earth-Villeda, a voter registration worker suspected of falsifying documents on Native American reservations, proclaimed her innocence Thursday in a telephone call to the South Dakota Public Television studio in Vermillion," the Sioux Falls Argus Leader reports. LINK

"The Flandreau woman, also known as Maka Duta, called the Old Main building on the University of South Dakota campus, where a debate between candidates for attorney general was about to begin."

Illinois

"Republican candidate for governor Jim Ryan angrily accused Democrat Rod Blagojevich of having 'no shame' Thursday as Blagojevich sought to link him to the fiery deaths of six children in an accident that played a key role in the licenses-for-bribes scandal," the Chicago Tribune reports. "But Blagojevich contended that Ryan, the state's attorney general, risked highway safety by not investigating the scandal in the secretary of state's office. 'There are 12 million people in Illinois who have a right to know that they can be safe on the highways,' the Democrat said." LINK

Indiana

"We don't always vote alike," Rep. Julia Carson (D) admitted of Senator Joseph Lieberman, who was campaigning for her yesterday. But they sure like each other a lot. LINK

Buried in the article is an unsourced wink that Vice President Cheney might campaign for Republican Brose McVey, which would probably be accompanied by a wave of NRCC cash here.

Iowa

Statewide polling shows little movement; Gov. Tom Vilsack (D) and Senator Tom Harkin are maintaining their leads over Republicans Doug Gross and Rep. Greg Ganske. LINK

Ganske is now tagging Harkin an "extremist." LINK

Minnesota

Absentee ballot fraud (albeit) on a small scale … LINK

The Pioneer Press profiles Democratic Senator Paul Wellstone's unquestioned status as a voice of passion in the Senate, noting his issue flip-flops and broken term-limit promise. LINK

Missouri

The local papers seem to have gotten over Senator Jean Carnahan's remark that since the Bush Administration couldn't find Osama bin Laden, it was going after her.

David Goldstein neatly frames the Senate race debate about Social Security. LINK

Incidentally, for all the interest group activity in this race already, may the gods help the voters and the Postal workers come the week before the election, when the NRA, right-to-lifers and pro-choicers, and many other voices enter the fray.

Texas

As the candidates and the aggressive press operatives get ready for tonight's first Senate race debate, both campaigns are dealing with a flap over Democrat Ron Kirk's appearance with some modern music performers, and the Houston Chronicle takes advantage of the moment to, well, chronicle the way that race might play in the Senate race:

"Each side has accused the other of using race as a weapon before, but Thursday's exchange was by far the most acrimonious. And experts said both sides could stand to benefit — Mr. Kirk by getting his supporters worked up over the idea of a racist attack, Mr. Cornyn by heightening anxiety about his opponent's values, especially among suburban and rural voters." LINK

"'The places where race is a hot-button issue, they will seize upon it. It will be like preaching to the choir,' said University of Texas political scientist Bruce Buchanan. 'The centrist voters, where the election will be decided, will look at it as politics as usual and look for other evidence to see if the candidate is in bed with a bad guy.'"

In this case, the Texas media seems more sympathetic to Kirk than to Cornyn.

Meanwhile Kirk's campaign continues their week-long pushback to GOP charges that Kirk spends too much time out of state (fundraising — an unfortunate necessity): a Dallas/Fort Worth station recently reported that Republican Senate nominee John Cornyn spends the vast majority of his time campaigning despite continuing to draw a taxpayer-funded salary as the state's attorney general.

City-printed election guides in Corpus Christi were disavowed by a judge after hearing arguments that language in them was biased against a waterfront development proposition. LINK

A Republican political activist is urging voters in Harris County to not vote a straight ticket because one GOP candidate is gay. LINK