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"What if we screwed up?" becomes the underlying theme of every conversation, every show of body language, every chain-smoked cigarette. (Unlike most network producers, who actually QUIT smoking awhile ago, some political types still light up the death sticks.)

Democrats have enough to worry about (like, did they put forth enough of an agenda that voters think they stand for something?; did they do enough to fight off GOP attempts to "me too" Social Security and prescription drugs?; etc.), but grim new consumer confidence figures can't be easing Republican minds any, nor can the prospect of more unemployment data due out later this week.

"In a report that was seen as a warning signal for the economy, the Conference Board said yesterday that consumer confidence in October plunged to a nine-year low." LINK

In a shameless attempt to indirectly ask us what we know he has been dying to ask (but is too shy to do so straight out), which is "can I be a guest writer on The Note?," a certain American Enterprise Institute fella auditions pretty well in the pages of the New York Times : "Norman Ornstein, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, said: 'If we had gotten the consumer confidence number three months ago or even a month ago, it would not have mattered because people weren't paying attention. Now they are.'"

"He continued: 'We have an election that will be decided at the margin of the margin. You don't need a major tide to turn Senate races from one side to another. And if a sour mood is what is prevailing, the odds are that at the margin it will hurt the "in" party.'"

"Referring to President Bush's political strategist, Mr. Ornstein said, 'If I were Karl Rove, this is the last thing I would want to see happen.'"

See you tomorrow morning, Norm. Early.

The Wall Street Journal lets one of the president's Men have his say: "Glenn Hubbard, chairman of President Bush's Council of Economic Advisers, says 'Economists will be watching what consumers do more than what they say. Confidence has declined since May, but household demand has been strong. With rising incomes, consumer spending should grow reasonably well during the next year of the recovery.'"

And we hope that Dan Bartlett is planning for beyond election day, for the right December presidential photo op to spur holiday spending (maybe buying socks at a K-Mart near Camp David … ), because, no matter who controls the Senate, it looks like that just might be necessary. One economist tells the Times , ""All of this is happening three to four weeks before the start of the holiday shopping season … Absent some sort of big change, this will likely have an impact on Christmas sales."

We're assuming that some strategic planning and not just sheer coincidence yielded the White House's scheduling of not only a Bush speech on some new domestic policy today, but also a radio-a-thon with local affiliates and nationally syndicated talk-show hosts from around the country, including some leading conservative folks.

Per ABCNEWS' Radio's Lutz, the White House is setting up a heated tent on the North Lawn of the White House, where leading Administration officials — not the president himself, in theory — will pull up chairs and gab live.

The Clinton Administration did the same thing when they rolled out Hillary Clinton's health care proposal.

"Radio talk-show hosts are setting up shop on the White House lawn today to interview Cabinet secretaries and top administration officials. Democrats say President Bush is using his office to give Republicans an unfair edge six days before elections," says USA Today 's Keen. LINK

"'Radio day' — held in a heated tent to fight Washington's unseasonable mid-40s chill — is the latest example of Bush's willingness to use all the tools of the presidency to boost Republican candidates' chances. He's wielding his popularity and ability to grab headlines to make the case for the importance of the Republican agenda."

"Syndicated conservative hosts Oliver North and Sean Hannity will be there. Rush Limbaugh was invited but declined. The White House is not picking up the tab for travel costs."

"Guests for eight- to 10-minute interviews will include Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, Attorney General John Ashcroft, Secretary of State Colin Powell, Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill and Commerce Secretary Don Evans. Even White House staffers who rarely do interviews will make the rounds, including chief of staff Andy Card, national security adviser Condoleezza Rice and senior adviser Karl Rove."

And this must be the same kind of pre-election deal, coming in Bush's scheduled speech: "The Bush Administration is expected to announce Wednesday a plan intended to give small businesses a better chance of winning government business," blares the Wall Street Journal .

Vice President Cheney was campaigning in Wilmington, NC yesterday, where he "sought to calm nervousness about the economy. Speaking in a barely audible monotone, the vice president said numerous signs pointed to a recovery in the economy. He noted that interest rates are low, inflation is low and the housing market is strong. Cheney said the administration will not rest until 'every person who wants to work finds a job.'" LINK

What was it with North Carolina? (Don't answer that, DSCC's Jim Jordan — it was a rhetorical question.) Treasury Secretary O'Neill also toured furniture factories there yesterday. LINK

It's possible that the national story on the economy is being obscured by the fact that the Minnesota story is really really interesting, with a lot of potential twists and turns in the remaining six days, and of course it does involve control of a key Senate seat — and therefore the whole question of control of the Senate.

Last night's memorial service for Senator Wellstone, his wife and daughter, and the others killed in the plane crash turned, by all accounts, into a political rally.

We promise, Republicans, we are not taking sides when we say: it was one of the most emotional "political" events The Note has ever seen.

GOPers can cry foul (for all the in-state coverage it got, and how political some of the speakers made it), but there is, as we like to say all the time, a difference between what is and what ought to be. And what "is," in this case, is that that event could not but help Walter Mondale launch his campaign with emotional resonance and blanket free media.

While most of the speakers didn't give speeches that were all that political, Rick Kahn, who spoke right before the Wellstone sons, raised the roof, and clearly was there to help hold the seat. To paraphrase what they said in "Butch Cassidy," who WAS that guy?

"They came to grieve, but they left ready to fight," writes the Pioneer Press's Jim Ragsdale. LINK

"What began as a solemn memorial ended sounding like a Democratic convention, with Bill and U.S. Senator Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., former Vice President Al Gore, the Rev. Jesse Jackson, and Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle, D-S.D., cheering on [Senator Tom] Harkin, a close friend of Wellstone."

"'We pay tribute to a leader — a true D-F-L liberal!' Harkin bellowed as the crowd stood and cheered. 'That's right! A D-F-L liberal, who constantly reminded those of us who are Democrats of the real center of gravity of our party … '"

"'It really is a political rally,' responded Republican state chairman Ron Eibensteiner, who said he had watched part of the memorial on television. 'From what little I did see of it, it did not seem like a memorial to me. But that's their choice. I'm a little surprised that it felt so much like a political rally.'"

"It appeared that not everyone stayed around for the end. By the time Harkin was speaking, several seats in the VIP section were empty, including Gov. Jesse Ventura's."

We would love to know how the Republicans in the hall, including Norm Coleman and Senator Lott, reacted during the "win this one for Paul!" stuff.

"At KSTP-TV, Tyler Damerville, night assigning editor, said he and his associate were inundated with phone calls from viewers who were upset with the political spin of the memorial. He said viewers have called him and said the station's voice mailbox is full."

KSTP (the ABC affiliate, we proudly point out), had very balanced coverage (if their website can be compared to their on-air content). LINK

So last night's turn of events might do something to counter Democrats' outrage over this" "Mr. Coleman went on ABC's 'This Week' on Sunday and CNN's 'Inside Politics' on Monday to say that Minnesotans needed more time to heal before resuming a vigorous campaign. In between, though, he was filming new commercials, while his strategists conducted overnight polls comparing him to his prospective new opponent." LINK

The hardball politics of the situation are that the Democrats are the party of the guy who died, and the Republicans aren't. And that is going to make it easier for the Democrats to "get away" with stuff, in both the national and the state media.

The Los Angeles Times ' Simon and Brownstein write, "Mondale is expected to deliver a speech tonight at the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party meeting, visit the Wellstone campaign headquarters Thursday, then travel around the state starting later in the day or Friday. 'The message will be, "I didn't seek this but someone needs to pick up the flag,"' said a Democratic Party source. 'The speech will be very closely connecting himself with Paul and his legacy.'" LINK

We still don't know about either side's ad strategy; we still don't know about any debates; we still don't know if either side will go negative; we still don't know what President Bush will say when he shows up on Sunday; and we still don't know what kind of campaign schedule Mondale will have.

We DO know that the National Republican Senatorial Committee has one speed and one method of winning tough races around the country: serious, tough, hard negative ads. Will they do that here, or will they look for another way? (And are we naïve to even ask that question?)

Terry McAuliffe got himself on "Today" this morning, and talked all about the Mondale Resume. The Macker said he was in favor of a series of debates in Minnesota.

And then Coleman popped up on the same program, planeside, live from Minnesota. He said the race was about the future, education, and taxes.

Matt Lauer asked him if he is worried about offending anyone. Coleman said, again, that the election is about the future, and suggested that Mondale needs to tell the people about his ideas for the 21st century.

Lauer asked if Coleman had prepared or would run a negative ad against Mondale, and Coleman didn't quite answer directly.

The Washington Times ' Sammon, by writing after the memorial service/rally, gives added poignancy to the whole story of how and why Vice President Cheney did not attend. LINK

At long last, the Daily News' DeFrank weighs into the Mondale story full force (maybe because of the emergence of a Cheney subplot), with stuff on all the themes and issues: "The sons of the late Minnesota Senator Paul Wellstone said Vice President Cheney wouldn't be welcome at their father's memorial service last night, sources confirmed." LINK

"'The family thought it wouldn't be appropriate. They were concerned about the difference in principles between the two men — and believe me it's principles here, not politics,' a top Democratic operative told the Daily News … "

"GOP strategists acknowledged Mondale's entry makes Coleman, the former St. Paul mayor, the underdog, but one source called the 74-year-old Democrat 'a big name, but nobody really knows him anymore' — particularly younger voters."

"The strategy is to keep Coleman on the high road while having surrogates and TV ads paint Mondale as a tax-and-spend liberal."

"'Mondale has a glass jaw, but we've got to go out and hit him to remind people what he really stands for,' a Republican source said."

Broadening back out to the Big Picture, the Washington Post 's Von Drehle and Balz write, "Election 2002 is shaping up, as time runs out, to be a ratification of 50-50 America, which is a nation of plurality presidents, gridlocked legislatures and declining voter participation. Strategists in both parties think and talk about the need to roll out big ideas and make bold new moves to break this deadlock — but for now it's just talk." LINK

"Instead of big and bold, the campaigns of 2002 have been marked by caution, vagueness, negativism, niche issues and sloganeering. Neither party has offered a clear or enticing way out. Tactics are almost certain to matter more in these races next Tuesday than issues or philosophy."

"These realities — courting the base and targeting the niches — help explain two constant themes of today's politics. Disaffected voters complain that elections seem to center on a few intractable hot-button issues, such as abortion and gun control, that matter intensely to the base of each party but far less to moderates. Add to these perennial face-offs a cluster of boutique issues aimed at narrow slices of voters, and you have the recipe for elections that seem to ignore the things that matter most."

The pair sets up this easily imaginable (at least for us) scene: "Across a small parking lot, on the second floor of the West Wing — as if hovering over the Oval Office — Karl Rove tends his own dreams. When he was masterminding George W. Bush's 2000 campaign, the strategist spoke often of his desire to command a new and lasting majority … The fact that Bush fell short of that kind of resounding win dampened some of Rove's big talk. While he still talks about the same goal, his language is more incremental."

"It won't be 50-50 after the 2004 election,' Rove predicts. 'Equilibrium doesn't last long in American politics, and some party will gain an advantage.'"

And yet. "As Rove combs through a sheaf of computer printouts, gleaning statistics to support his case, he begins to sound more like a Patience man than a Bold man. A few thousand new voters here, ten or twenty thousand there, spell, in his mind, the chance to tip a handful of key states away from the Democrats. Over time a Republican majority will create itself."

"The man who once spoke brashly of recreating 1896 still believes that big ideas — the right ones — make big majorities. But ask Rove what those big ideas will be in 50-50 America and he answers briskly: 'I'm still working on that.'"

And Mr. Shapiro writes, "this year, Republicans have been particularly adept at clouding the debate over prescription-drug benefits for Medicare recipients by touting their own plan, which passed the House on virtually a party-line vote. Voters crave stark differences, not complex arguments over rival pieces of legislation." LINK

The Los Angeles Times ' Anderson trips through the tulips of more tax cuts from Republicans and minimum wage hikes and unemployment benefits extensions from Democrats as he speculates, in one of the first decent looks we've seen, on a divided versus a unified government: "Whichever party triumphs in the House and Senate elections, their majority margins are likely to be narrow, but the policy consequences will be huge. A Republican Congress would mobilize behind President Bush's conservative agenda if he seeks reelection in 2004. A Democratic Congress would unleash liberal legislative voices stymied for eight years and could throw Bush onto the defensive." LINK

USA Today 's Page joins the trail of tears over the dearth of close House races and notes that "re-election as a member of the House has long been one of the safest bets in politics. But it has gotten even safer as strategists have honed the fundraising and other advantages of incumbency. Both parties have become more ideologically consistent, and there are fewer of the conservative Southern Democrats and moderate-to-liberal Northeast Republicans who once pushed for common ground with the other side." LINK

What more could a Democratic heart want out of a Wall Street Journal story?

Focusing on freshman Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito's West Virginia district (which is expecting yet another presidential visit tomorrow), the story:
1) quotes Democratic House campaign committee superspokesperson Jennifer Backus explaining to the world that Social Security is a "values" issue;
2) reminds the world that moving to a personal savings account system requires "trillions" in transition costs that aren't exactly stored under Paul O'Neill's mattress; and
3) reminds the world that Ms. Capito once supported "partial privatization" of the system.

But the story also suggests that Capito's Democratic opponent isn't necessarily poised to ride the issue to victory.

The Journal also has an editorial praising those Republicans who they claim aren't running away from the salvation of personal accounts (and criticizes GOP House campaign committee chief Tom Davis for leading the partial retreat). The problems with the Journal's praise are: 1) not all the candidates they cite are truly defending the plan they are for in a full-throated manner; and 2) if one of their poster candidates, Elizabeth Dole (and/or Lindsey Graham) loses, it will do damage to their thesis.

Minnesota Senate Race

A Star-Tribune poll gives Mondale an eight-point lead over Coleman, but: "Minnesota Polls usually are conducted over several nights. This poll was based on 639 interviews conducted on a single night and therefore represents a brief snapshot of public opinion at a time when the state's political world is reeling." LINK

The Star-Tribune's editorial board urges politicians to be respectful and somber in the days ahead: LINK

Everyone who's anybody received a briefing, it seems, from "anonymous" Democratic party officials letting them in on today's schedule. To wit:

"Minnesota party leaders [will meet] tonight to launch a campaign aimed at holding onto the late Senator Paul Wellstone's seat for the Democrats, according to party officials. The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Tuesday that Mondale was expected to make his first public appearance as a candidate Thursday." LINK

"Mondale's son Ted, Metropolitan Council chair, was asked about his father's plans and would only reply, 'We'll see tomorrow night,' with a big grin on his face.'"

"Republican candidate Norm Coleman will get a far earlier start on the day."

"A schedule released late last night by the state Republican Party sets Coleman off on a statewide fly-around beginning at 6 a.m. He will travel to International Falls, Thief River Falls, Owatonna and finish back in St. Paul for what is expected to be a major rally outside of O'Gara's Bar and Grill on Snelling Avenue."

"And that won't be all. Coleman is then expected to head to Xcel Energy Center to greet Bob Dylan fans. Dylan, a native of Hibbing, Minn., honored Wellstone at a concert several days ago."

"'We're going to take 15 days of campaigning and stuff it into six days,' said one Coleman staffer. Few campaign officials wanted to speak publicly Tuesday, out of respect for Wellstone.'"

Actually, the Star-Tribune's Dane Smith managed to capture a few Republicans on the record. LINK

Legally, Wellstone's campaign can't transfer cash directly to Mondale's incipient effort. According to published reports, much of the $1 million-plus remaining will be placed in an account controlled by the DFL party.

Question solved: according to a Senate administrative official, Mondale's seniority would "reset," so he'd be Senator Mark Dayton's junior. LINK

The Minnesota Vote

News that the DFL filed suit to counter an alleged disparity in counting absentee ballots provokes one of two responses: 1) a pre-election court fight might mean that issue is resolved in time for the election, putting off a prolonged, post-election fight. Or 2) it will drag on through the election. The court will hear the case Thursday.

"Minnesota Democrats on Tuesday asked the state Supreme Court to force election officials to send new absentee ballots to people who voted for the late Senator Paul Wellstone before he died in a plane crash — votes that otherwise wouldn't be valid. The Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party also sued to stop election officials from continuing to send out absentee ballots with Wellstone's name on them. The DFL won't name his replacement until tonight. The Republican Party filed competing papers to stop the Democrats' request, saying it could deny some citizens the right to vote in the election." LINK

"Officials from Ramsey and Hennepin counties broke ranks from the state Tuesday and said they would give new ballots to anyone who requested one — essentially doing part of what the DFL is suing to require. Ramsey County is already mailing out new absentee ballots to those who request them; Hennepin is giving new ballots to those who ask for them in person."

Legislative Agenda

The Wall Street Journal has a newsless but very solid story on the administration's continued thinking about a pitch for a major tax reform effort after the midterm elections.

ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary

The Washington Post 's Grove sketches out the "media juggernaut" that will be the Al and Tipper Gore book tour: "Among the highlights of the book tour — one of the most elaborate in recent publishing industry memory — are a full-dress Barbara Walters interview on Nov. 15 (with promotional pearls tossed out that day on 'Good Morning America'), a scheduled appearance on David Letterman's 'Late Show,' a 'Today' show interview the following week, guest shots on CNN's 'Larry King Live' and 'Inside Politics,' and countless back-to-back print interviews." LINK

"The other part is the riveting drama — okay, maybe we're a tad overwrought — of this once and possibly future presidential candidate reintroducing himself to the voters. 'It's an opportunity to reconnect with a whole host of issues that they really care about,' said Gore adviser Carter Eskew. 'I think he's feeling very comfortable, for lack of a better word, because it's material he feels deeply about.'"

Mr. Vice President, please have lunch with Lloyd.

Somewhat compensating for the IP starvation diet we've been on because of the war, the sniper, and now the Haitians, CNN's Crowley and Mercurio report in juicy detail on Mr. Gore's distribution of about $200,000 from his recount fund to Democratic efforts in Florida, Tennessee, Iowa and New Hampshire.

Senator John Edwards will be giving that previously mentioned economic speech on Tuesday, November 12 at 12 noon at a Fortune Magazine forum in DC.

Edwards will cast his ballot at an early vote center in Raleigh today at 3:45 p.m..

The Vote

Steve Thomma lets Knight-Ridder newspapers in on the possible national chaos that could be next Tuesday. LINK

The New York Times ' Robert Pear has his usual nose for conflict, seeing the fracas between Senators Bond and Dodd over interpreting the Help America Vote Act (what we refer to in The Note bullpen as "haavaa") as part of his daily story on the president's bill signing. LINK

A big question for election day: which states will have a smoother time — those with old machines that poll workers know how to operate, or those with new machines which should, in theory, work better?

The newest system of all is in Georgia, where Kit Seelye, the Reporter of Record for The Paper of Record on voting stuff, traveled to tell the story of the Peach State's brand new $53.9 million touch screen grand experiment. LINK

Such a must-read, as they would say in the Times cafeteria.

"Georgia is the only state that will use the same electronic equipment simultaneously in all of its 2,823 precincts … ," with Secretary of State Cathy Cox leading the charge to figure out how to fix everything.

"Florida may have received all the attention in the 2000 presidential election, but Georgia's problems were actually worse. Ninety-four thousand votes for president went uncounted because of equip.m.ent failures, and the error rate was 3.5 percent, as against 2.9 percent in Florida … "

"On top of $53.9 million in bond financing for the machines, the Legislature gave Ms. Cox $4 million for voter education. She has hired voter-education coordinators, set up demonstration projects in public places and developed instructional videotapes and manuals. The state is mailing color brochures to all registered voters before Election Day explaining how to use the machines and has spent $500,000 on 30-second public service announcements … "

"Ms. Cox said she constantly encountered officials from other states who were growing more and more nervous with the approach of Election Day. But she is not one of them. 'Not a day has gone by that we haven't been focused on this,' she said."

"Others will be focused on it, too. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution is deploying a team of 18 reporters just to look at the mechanics of Georgia's elections."

In South Dakota, more than 24,000 new voters will be on the rolls as compared to the primary election in June.

The Argus Leader's David Kranz knows what you want to hear: "The political party totals are 228,200 Republicans, 183,343 Democrats and 64,441 others. Democrats registered 11,387 new members since the primary, and Republicans increased by 8,908 … Democrats gained 3,978 votes in eight reservation counties, while Republicans actually lost 48 registrations overall in those counties." LINK

Republicans, as usual, are keeping a close eye on all of this.

The ACLU wants the government to review changes to the way South Dakota will handle its absentee ballots. LINK

The forecast for Palm Beach County, FL: long lines … but smooth sailing. LINK

Harris County, TX officials predict some confusion because voter rolls aren't fully updated; their oop-sie, they acknowledge. LINK

The newspaper article predicts "havoc" but the consequence would seem to be simply longer lines.

Harris County uses an electronic voting machine called "eSlate."

The Los Angeles Times looks at the surge in early voting and gives brief airing to the two parties' grievances on that front so far. LINK

And USA Today offers a less than sunny-sounding preview of "e-day" in Florida given the problems with the primary. LINK

Watchdog

We're still (now more than ever) on the lookout for deceptive, false, or highly negative campaign advertisements, telephone calls, radio ads, and mail. If anything like that comes your way, please e-mail us at Politicalunit@abcnews.com

We know they're out there — a few of you have tipped us off to weird phone calls in South Dakota that talk about voter fraud and calls in Oregon that mention water policy. We'll round them up tomorrow.

(Weblogger Josh Marshall does some investigative work of his own into those South Dakota calls: LINK ) We'd really like to track down the folks behind them.

Click here for all the details, and to help America. LINK

Politics

We have some changes to our governors race ratings to tell you about. All of the changes reflect races that have become more competitive in recent weeks, rather than less. LINK >

In Hawaii, Democrats appear to have recovered since their low point in this race, when they were left temporarily with no candidate at all to pit against strong GOP contender Linda Lingle. Between their nomination of Lt. Gov. Mazie Hirono and the state's natural Democratic tilt, the race now would seem to be about tied, as two weekend newspaper polls suggest, and we are changing this rating from Incumbent Party Likely Loss to Toss-Up.

In Maryland, the state's historic Democratic tilt and a recently re-staffed campaign don't seem to be helping Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend (D) break free of her apparent deadlock with GOP nominee Bob Ehrlich, so we are moving this race from Incumbent Party Favored (for Democrats) to Toss-Up. We're still betting that Townsend pulls it out in the end, but she will need heavy African-American turnout, which Democrats usually have locked up by this point in the cycle — but which, due to poor outreach earlier in the cycle, she hasn't secured.

Some Republicans we spoke with appeared to be either in denial about, or not attentive to the fact that Gov. Mike Huckabee's re-election campaign has gotten remarkably competitive since state Treasurer Jimmie Lou Fisher (D) got herself a campaign staff and the money started coming in — greased by the Clintons and other former Clinton Administration officials. Arkansas is arguably the most Democratic of the Southern states, and Fisher is a longtime and well-liked figure in state politics, to whom GOP charges of Clinton cronyism don't seem to be sticking. We're moving this one from Incumbent Party Favored (for Republicans) to Toss-Up.

Finally, we're somewhat belatedly moving Wyoming from Incumbent Party Safe (for Republicans) to Favored — and it may well be a toss-up when all's said and done. GOP nominee Eli Bebout is quite far to the right on the ideological spectrum, whereas Democrat Dave Freudenthal is known as a moderate consensus builder, and the race is not just competitive but about even. We'll keep it at Favored for now, with another possible change to Toss-Up status in the coming days.

We are watching closely Kansas, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Oregon for possible changes, but are leaving them in the current slots for now.

In our Senate ratings, we aren't making any changes right now, but we continue to watch several races — especially North Carolina, Georgia, and Texas — which just might be Toss-Ups by the weekend. LINK

The two national parties "appear likely to eclipse the $495 million raised in 2000," USA Today 's Drinkard writes. "That's a remarkable develop.m.ent, because there is no presidential race to attract big contributors, as there was two years ago." LINK

Praise the Lord and pass the paper! The New York Times ' Purdum, free from those pesky striped pants, is back in style, with a profile of Terry McAuliffe as the fundraiser-in-chief for the party in exile. LINK

The piece quotes 'em all: Palmieri, Daschle, Rangel, B. Clinton, K. Sheridan, Carrick, and Elmendorf.

The Purdum Thesis: Terry can still raise a lot of money, but a party chair can't please everyone, and the Democrats are again, still, and always the Poor Party.

The Washington Post reminds us, "The hoopla over which party will control Congress after Nov. 5 has obscured the fight for partisan advantage in the nation's state legislatures, where power is evenly split and experts predict record turnover among lawmakers." LINK

"Still, the mere potential for change doesn't ensure that voters' loyalties have shifted beyond the 50-50 split between the parties that produced a bitterly contested 2000 presidential election and an evenly divided Congress."

Even African-American voters' historical, nearly one-sided support for one party may be balancing out a bit. LINK

B1 of the Wall Street Journal has what is, on some levels, the most important political story in the papers today: the business vs. trial lawyers battle for control of the Mississippi Supreme Court.

And if you don't instantly know WHY that is, read the third editorial in the Wall Street Journal today, about Senator Mary Landrieu (D) (with a headline — "Something About Mary" — that is either stolen from, or homage to, Mitch Bainwol's shop) and asbestos.

And if you still don't know, you need to schedule yourself a lunch with Dickie Scruggs ASAP.

Florida

Former First Lady Barbara Bush will campaign for her son the Governor at a GOP women's luncheon in Fort Myers today.

The Wall Street Journal 's Robert Pollock spends a whole op-ed trashing Bill McBride (comparing him to Admiral Stockdale no less!!), but then says in the last paragraph that he might win.

Yesterday's messages: Attorney Bill McBride (D): "Bush demeaned the office." Gov. Jeb Bush (R): "McBride would raise your taxes." LINK

Everyone on NBC's Today seemed to agree that the biggest problem with the Florida vote is "people and training, people and training, people and training." (For an example, click here: LINK )

We still wonder how the scene will be set, with hundreds of lawyers, police officers, federal monitors, liberal interest group lawyers, camera crews and pencils jumping on every voter who exits a poll site with a frown.

Senator John McCain (R-Ariz.) stumped for Bush yesterday in his typical straight talking way: "While Bush flaunted his direct line to the White House to a thunderous ovation from 200 veterans packed into an American Legion hall, McCain derided the White House's efforts to block increased benefits for disabled veterans. And although Bush's campaign has been financed almost entirely through the unlimited, unregulated corporate contributions called 'soft money,' McCain decried the proliferation of big money in American politics." LINK

And while Bush's team has spent millions attacking McBride through negative ads, McCain criticized negativity in political campaigns. "'I've seen the influence of special interests and big money in Washington, and I'm sure it's the case here,' said McCain, who built a campaign for president in 2000 against George W. Bush based on his push for campaign finance reform."

New Jersey

Lautenberg and Forrester have their first of two debates tonight.

Colorado

The Los Angeles Times , post-poll, picks through the results and finds less support among Latinos for Gov. Gray Davis (D) than he had before. LINK

Massachusetts

David Broder was in the house last night for the Russert-moderated gubernatorial debate, and pronounces it "relatively calm." LINK

The Boston Globe 's focus group found Democratic nominee Shannon O'Brien exasperating and unanimously supported Romney … LINK

… while the Herald's focus group overall backed O'Brien. LINK

Senator John McCain will hold a press conference and attend a rally with Romney today in South Boston.

Massachusetts

Sniper politics continue to play in the governor's race: Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend (D) yesterday called "for new restrictions on the sale of assault weapons," while GOP nominee Bob Ehrlich cautiously tried to finesse a seeming agreement. LINK

The Washington Times previews the GOTV efforts: "The Democrats are promising the 'most sophisticated' get-out-the-vote effort in state history, targeting traditionally Democratic black voters concentrated in Baltimore and Prince George's County. The Republicans, who need to energize a conservative base sprinkled throughout the electorate, will go after 'swing areas' and pockets of Republican support within the historically Democratic state. The campaign staffs will use phone banks, direct mail, leaflets and door-to-door visits to urge supporters to cast ballots. They also will offer to transport voters to the polls Tuesday." LINK

Townsend will have "church groups, civic clubs and union operatives marshaling black voters to the polls. They will be working the polls, canvassing neighborhoods and prodding voters in Democratic precincts where turnout appears low on Election Day."

Ehrlich's 'turnout drive also will extend to other Ehrlich-friendly groups such as Hispanic and Jewish communities and members of the numerous police unions that have endorsed him. The campaign will pour its resources into swing areas that have experienced rapid population growth in recent years or that otherwise have been identified as favoring Mr. Ehrlich. In Montgomery County, the campaign staff has identified Burtonsville, Gaithersburg and some precincts in Bethesda and Chevy Chase as swing areas."

North Carolina

Republican Senate nominee Elizabeth Dole got her shot at stepping off Air Force Two with Vice President Cheney yesterday. "While Dole again tapped her deep Washington connections, [Democratic nominee Erskine] Bowles reached out to the African-American clergy, uncharacteristically quoting the Bible and using religious language." Democrats sent a jar of caviar to Dole's fundraiser with Cheney. LINK

"The Bush administration also showed its ability to boost the campaign of a favored candidate by announcing federal funding of one of Dole's campaign ideas — a 'textile tracer' designed to reduce illegal textile trade smuggling."

South Carolina

Social Security remains a big sticking point in this Senate race. The Democrat-leaning Campaign for America's Future "charged Tuesday that Republican U.S. Senate nominee Lindsey Graham has backed a proposal that would have required younger workers to invest Social Security taxes in the stock market. Graham … has said in ads and debates that his plan to let younger workers invest Social Security taxes in the stock market is voluntary, not mandatory." LINK

Georgia

The Washington Post 's Dewar does the Senate race: "President Bush has scheduled campaign stops Saturday in Georgia on Chambliss's behalf, and Democrats are running a new TV ad featuring Senator Zell Miller (D-Ga.) defending Cleland against claims that Chambliss has more in common with Miller than Cleland does." LINK

Both Senate contenders are targeting women voters. LINK

Arizona

The latest Arizona Republic numbers: three gaming initiatives down, gubernatorial candidate Janet Napolitano (D) up. LINK

Colorado

Out-of-state money is flooding the state and boosting campaign coffers. LINK

The Denver Post finds that most school districts in Colorado don't like the anti-bilingual education initiative on the ballot. LINK

The Post also figures out how much money will flow to the state from the new election reform law. LINK

Hispanics are a growing Colorado constituency: "While 58.9 percent of non-Hispanics eligible to vote in Colorado actually cast a ballot in the 2000 presidential election, only 45.3 percent of eligible Hispanics did. In a state where Hispanics now make up more than 17 percent of the total population, that significantly reduced the political impact of those voters on local and national races, activists say." LINK

Latest Rocky Mountain News tracking poll numbers: LINK

Pennsylvania

Foreign correspondent David Lightman went to the cedars of Lebanon, PA, for a flyover look at how House races are hinging on local issues. LINK

Iowa

A story ostensibly about last-minute barnstorming contains quotes about how the two major gubernatorial campaigns are reluctant to put people on small planes. LINK

Louisiana

Senator Mary Landrieu(D) tried to separate herself from her three Republican challengers during last night's debate. LINK

Illinois

To paraphrase our question from yesterday: an honest mistake or something else?

"Illinois' largest labor organization says it was an honest mistake that began in a San Francisco art studio: an Illinois campaign mailer that falsely identifies unpopular outgoing Gov. George Ryan as this year's Republican candidate for governor." LINK

"They just pulled the wrong photo, said Beth Spencer, spokeswoman for the Illinois AFL-CIO, a union umbrella organization that boasts a million members. It certainly was not done intentionally, though I'm sure that's what it looks like.'"

"It sure does, alleges the campaign of actual GOP nominee Jim Ryan — who has spent the whole campaign reminding voters that he isn't the Republican incumbent and isn't related to him."

Missouri

The environment and education are "emerg[ing]" as the big issues in the Senate race. LINK

Wisconsin

Last night's gubernatorial debate was surprisingly "civil" and focused on education. LINK

Texas

Messieurs Ron Kirk (D) and John Cornyn (R) stumped with their mommies yesterday. But that didn't stop their campaigns from acrimoniously arguing over flag burning. LINK

New Hampshire

Depending on how close the Senate race ends up, write-in votes for Senator Bob Smith (R) could tip the balance in favor of Gov. Jean Shaheen (D). LINK

The president's coming! The president's coming! Manchester police get more overtime! (And less time to search tavern basements for video poker machines … ) LINK

Bush Administration Strategy/Personality

OK, here's the deal on the president voting in this election: he will vote in Crawford on election day. Per ABCNEWS' Textor, Bush HAD filled out an absentee ballot, because it was originally thought that he would be campaigning outside of Texas on election day, but aides never sent it in (realizing, no doubt that the shot of the president casting his ballot was just too good to pass up). Bush will spend election day in Crawford and return to DC in the evening.