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Rhetorical acceptance of a pre-election vote (in all likelihood, from the Democrats' point of view, the earlier the better to try to sneak in some domestic issues before the election), but with the knowledge that once hearings get underway and debate begins, the vote could, without their fingerprints on it (so they don't appear to voters to be defying the president), be put off past November 5.

As a purely political matter (not that they are operating purely out of political motives), Democrats seem to want either a quick vote, or a post-election vote. But they seem most likely to get a vote shortly before they adjourn, which, as a purely political matter (not that they are operating purely out of political motives, either) likely best serves the needs of the White House and the Republican National Committee.

But the timing remains fluid, and world events could intercede.

For your Monday-morning dose of the Sunshine State: With Janet Reno's campaign now pretty emphatically ruling out any possible court remedy, and the Florida Secretary of State pretty much ruling out a state recount of any sort, it appears that Reno will concede the nomination tomorrow or Wednesday at the latest, unless some completely unexpected cache of Reno votes is found.

If that happens, on balance, we'd guess that the delayed launch of Bill McBride's general election effort will prove worth it for the Democrats, in exchange for reviving the anti-Jeb feelings over voting problems.

Even without any official rolling updates, the unofficial word, filtered through the campaigns, is that Reno picked up votes in Miami-Dade, but there won't be too many previously uncounted votes in Broward.

Broward and Miami-Dade still seem on track toward putting out their official totals tomorrow, along with some potential tweaking in other counties. Both counties will continue counting today. They might finish today, and formally or informally put out their numbers, or one or both might still be counting tomorrow.

In any case, no one expects Reno to actually pass McBride's total.

Former Vice President Gore will be stopping in Broward and Miami-Dade counties on Tuesday for previously scheduled fundraisers and events, with another stop scheduled for Palm Beach County on Wednesday before he leaves.

If Democrats have a gubernatorial nominee before he departs, we wonder whether we'll see a photo op, to take full advantage of that botched vote count issue …

Back to Iraq and the revival of Big Casino (!!!). The Wall Street Journal has the good sense to front its interview with White House economic Big Larry Lindsey with this lead: "President Bush's chief economic adviser estimates that the U.S. may have to spend between $100 billion and $200 billion to wage a war in Iraq, but doubts that the hostilities would push the nation into recession or a sustained period of inflation … "

"That is considerably higher than a preliminary, private Pentagon estimate of about $50 billion … "

"Whatever the bottom line, the war's costs would be significant enough to make it harder for the Bush administration to climb out of the budget-deficit hole it faces because of the economic slowdown and expense of the war on terrorism."

This is a must-read for Note readers, because, believe us, it will be a must-read for every oil trader, stock hedger, and semi-casual investor in the rational world.

"Mr. Lindsey said that Mr. Hussein's ouster could actually ease the oil problem by increasing supplies. Iraqi production has been constrained somewhat because of its limited investment and political factors. 'When there is a regime change in Iraq, you could add three million to five million barrels of production to world supply' each day, Mr. Lindsey estimated. 'The successful prosecution of the war would be good for the economy … '"

The Journal's lead editorial (curiously) makes much the same point as Mr. Lindsey: "that the best way to keep oil prices in check is a short, successful war on Iraq that begins sooner rather than later. We aren't suggesting the U.S. should go to war to get cheaper oil. Only that as long as uncertainty continues, the greater the possibility that economists will have to put another recession associated with $30 oil into their mug's game."

The Washington Post 's Milbank nicely gets at, and probably further fuels Democrats' suspicions, that this is all at least partially politically motivated, and also reports out their fears that it may well work.

"Bush provoked suspicions Friday when he warned Democrats not to wait for the United Nations to act. The president's words closely followed those used by one of his top advisers in a briefing Thursday, indicating a coordinated White House strategy." LINK

"Two weeks ago, the headlines were about a lethargic economy, a depressed stock market and corporate misdeeds; the news about Iraq was about policy disagreements among Bush advisers. Now, the debate has shifted almost entirely from Democrats' preferred domestic issues to preparations for military action, a GOP favorite."

"Whatever the White House motive, the emergence of Iraq as an issue before the election has spooked Democrats, who find themselves struggling for a response. Though there is no consensus for handling the matter, party strategists said the likeliest course is for Democrats to agree to votes quickly on a resolution authorizing force against Hussein — in hopes of getting back to domestic matters."

Milbank goes on to repeat the point that Democrats, in a way, asked for this by demanding the consultation with Congress.

"[T]he White House has sent contradictory signs about the role of politics. Karl Rove, Bush's top political adviser, has been photographed with the president in meetings about Iraq and has been put forward to speak publicly about the timing of the Iraq rollout … Last week, White House political aides encouraged GOP candidates to emphasize national security." And he brings up Andy Card's "marketing point of view."

Let history record that that was one tough game of hardball the president played last week with his Congress/UN challenge.

The Washington Times ' Lambro, seemingly armed with GOP oppo research on Democrats' support for then-President Clinton's move to bomb Iraq in 1998, writes that "[c]opies of Mr. Clinton's speech were being sent to Mr. Bush's Democratic critics in Congress last week, a White House official said Friday." LINK

Roll Call gets a snapshot of House Democrat angst, and their attempts to deal with the situation: "Inside the Caucus, House Minority Leader Richard Gephardt (D-Mo.) is urging Democrats to 'let the Iraq debate take care of itself,' in the words of one source who listened to Gephardt at a meeting of the party's whip operation on Thursday morning." LINK

"Gephardt told Members in the room that Democrats will launch an intensive four-week effort — set to begin today — to move the debate back to issues that play to the party's presumed strengths, and called for the Members to show discipline in sticking to the game plan. The blitz will cover, in sequence, prescription drugs, pension reform, corporate responsibility and Social Security, sources said."

"But Democrats are wary. Many privately doubt their issues will get a fair hearing in the clamor over Iraq, but also suggest the debate is too volatile at this point to project an impact this November."

As for those domestic issues Democrats want to talk about, Roll Call 's Cillizza, following up on the Washington Post 's excellent story on Social Security last week, writes that predictions that this issue would be at the forefront of the agenda "have finally begun to come to fruition." While Democrats and Republicans continue to fight over ad traffic on Social Security in a West Virginia House race, "House Republicans plan to circulate a memo this week to their Members outlining a plan to take the offensive on Social Security by citing past votes and statements of Democratic incumbents in support of privatization." LINK

The AP's Lindlaw writes that with his (eighth) trip to Iowa today, "President Bush is returning to the Republican fund-raising circuit after an 11-day hiatus — one of his longest breaks this year." LINK

"The president's record-breaking campaign-cash drive has reeled in more than $111 million for GOP candidates this year, in 52 appearances … Bush raises money in Tennessee on Tuesday for Lamar Alexander, a rival for the 2000 Republican presidential nomination … A multistate swing at the end of the month is expected to include three more fund-raisers."

No need to hit this one too hard, but Bill Clinton would have been crucified (we don't think he'll object to the use of that word) by the opposition party and the media if he had raised money under such wartime circumstances.

While in Davenport, IA today, President Bush will meet with an 11-year-old girl named Hannah Bachelder who "set about a fund-raising campaign that gathered $2,000 for America's Fund for Afghan Children." Hannah "will get to sit in when Bush addresses employees of Sears Manufacturing." LINK

Bush will kick off his Tuesday with early morning Rose Garden remarks on his civic education initiative, then he'll head to Nashville for a fundraiser for GOP Senate nominee Lamar Alexander, followed by a Pledge Across America event.

In addition to being deadline day for vote certification in Florida, and the day Al Gore shows up in the state, Tuesday also brings the last round of primaries for the 2002 midterm election (except for Louisiana, which holds its primaries on November 5), in Massachusetts, Hawaii, and Washington state, along with the Oklahoma run-offs.

The key contest on Tuesday will be the Democratic primary in the race to replace retiring Gov. Jane Swift (R) of Massachusetts, which could yield a woman or former Clinton Labor Secretary Robert Reich as the nominee, along with the interesting sidebar that is the Republican battle there for the lieutenant governor nomination.

In Hawaii, Democrats will choose their nominee in their uphill battle to defeat Republican candidate Linda Lingle for the state's open governorship, and in Oklahoma, Democrats will choose their nominee against GOP Senator Jim Inhofe.

On Wednesday, Bush will meet with the president of the Czech Republic, and make remarks on cancer, while his father pops up in Tennessee to headline another fundraiser for Lamar. The Consumer Price Index figure for August will be released in the morning.

Also on Wednesday, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton will host a fundraiser are her home for Democratic House candidate Julie Thomas of Iowa. And Florida's statewide election board is scheduled to certify the final, final numbers in the Democrats' gubernatorial primary by 5:00 p.m..

And the Senate Judiciary Committee will turn its attention to "University of Utah law professor Michael W. McConnell, a soft-spoken, scholarly conservative whose nomination to a U.S. appeals court has driven a wedge between Washington's liberal activists, who oppose him, and many of the nation's most prominent liberal academics, who support him." LINK

On Thursday, Bush's former fellow Republican governors will gather in DC for their annual fall meeting, and Bush will address them at a reception that evening. Vice President Cheney is scheduled to raise money for the Vermont GOP. Senate Majority Leader Daschle will keynote the League of Conservation Voters dinner in DC.

And housing starts for August will be released that morning. And Bill McBride (presumably) faces a deadline for picking his running mate.

Friday, Bush will meet with the Russian Foreign and Defense Ministers. Senator John Edwards will kick off another weekend retreat for key advisers and supporters at Pinehurst in North Carolina.

Iraq politics

Bill Safire's must-read column in the New York Times today slips in a little (reporting? guesswork?) on what 41 thinks of Iraq, and has some, we think accurate, analysis of how Democratic leaders have to'ed and fro'ed on an Iraq authorization vote strategy vis-a-vis the election. LINK

The Los Angeles Times ' Brownstein says today, "An aide to a leading liberal senator predicts that half of Democrats (and virtually all Republicans) would support an American invasion of Iraq if Bush makes a good-faith effort to pass a new U.N. resolution with teeth but is blocked by other nations." LINK

The Wall Street Journal 's Rogers unfurls his secret intelligence sources yet again in a piece about alleged bickering within the administration over funding for Afghanistan, which goes in this section because of this kicker quote from Rep. Jim Kolbe: "'What's disturbing is we're about to take a major step to replace a regime in Iraq, and we can't even manage Afghanistan,' Mr. Kolbe said."

The White House political shop won't like that one bit, since Kolbe regularly makes plays for the LaHood Award.

During the 1996 campaign, certain senior Dole campaign officials wouldn't take the calls of a certain Note writer, until AFTER Senator Dole hired as a speechwriter the conservative novelist Mark Helprin, at which point Dole campaign receptionists (after telling the caller, who identified himself as "Mark Halperin," how much they respected his work) would put the calls right through.

Helprin was hired after he wrote an eye-catching op-ed in The Wall Street Journal about why Dole was a better man than Clinton.

Ultimately, after Helprin penned the Senator's very lovely departure speech from the Senate ("lovely" except for that part about going back to Kansas if he lost the White House), he quit the campaign in a huff during the convention, and Mr. Halperin's calls went back to being untaken and unreturned.

In any event, Mr. Helprin is back today on the editorial page of The Wall Street Journal , where he is a contributing editor, and his truly scathing attack on the president's conduct of the war against terrorism across the board sounds like a stew of Paul Begala, Frank Gaffney, and Oliver North (which, come to think of it, is three-fourths of a bad episode of "Equal Time").

We hope Peggy Noonan writes a response to this one for the same page.

Vince Morris and the New York Post polled the state's delegation on Iraq and found "that only 11 lawmakers say they absolutely back Bush; another six are dead-set against it while many others are leaning against or undecided."LINK

The Florida vote

McBride today will visit a pre-kindergarten center in St. Petersburg; Reno's schedule is TBD. And Governor Bush will be conducting state business in Tally.

The Palm Beach Post explains why the 5:00 p.m. Tuesday deadline for all votes to be in should actually signify the end: Reno's campaign "said Reno would not ask for a recount, even if the final tally shows her losing by just one vote." LINK

Reno lawyer "Greer suggested that the only way Reno would go to court would be if the vote count showed that she won but for some reason the three Republicans making up the state elections board chose to ignore the new numbers and declared McBride the winner."

"The announcement by Reno's camp was welcome news to McBride … "

"No announcement (of victory or concession) is expected until after votes are certified Tuesday. McBride could announce sooner, but advisers don't want him to rub his expected victory in Reno's face."

Per the St. Petersburg Times: "Had those newly found Miami-Dade votes been counted last week, the state would have ordered an automatic statewide recount because McBride and Reno would have been less than one half of 1 percent apart … " LINK

"But Secretary of State Jim Smith said Friday that under Florida's revised elections law, the deadline has already passed for a recount. The canvassing board rejected Reno's request for a statewide manual recount, and Smith said state law won't allow a recount even if thousands of new votes create a razor-thin lead for Reno or McBride."

The St. Petersburg Times nicely summarizes the shifting rhetoric of the Reno troops, through the prism of the remarks of lawyer Greer: "His comments Sunday marked a distinct backtracking from his position last week. On Friday he predicted an "almost bloody revolution" if the all-Republican canvassing board refused a recount if Reno wound up within the one half of 1 percent threshold. He told the Washington Post that while the Reno campaign would not contest the election in court, it might sue to force a recount." LINK

The Miami Herald takes as gospel the view of the Secretary of State that Reno would have to take legal action to get a recount, even if the "final" margin tomorrow ends up within .5 percent:

"That new margin, which Miami-Dade Elections Supervisor David Leahy declined to confirm, falls well within 0.5 percent of the total vote, the legal limit to automatically trigger a statewide recount. Last Thursday — when the margin stood at 0.6 percent — was the deadline, however, for the state elections canvassing board to initiate a recount. There is no provision in the law for new numbers to trigger an automatic recount, meaning candidates have to mount a legal challenge." LINK

Attention, GOP strategists and b-roll collectors: "The Rev. Willie Sims, president of the African American Council of Christian Clergy, said the group was holding a meeting today to discuss the crisis."

"'Our phones have not stopped ringing from people who could not vote for Ms. Reno who were turned away or left in frustration,' Sims said."

"Today, some Broward County Democrats are organizing a 'Count Every Vote' protest near City Hall in Fort Lauderdale."

Per the Miami Herald on Sunday, Reno is working on a report that would be an indictment of touch screen machines and Governor Bush's handling of election reform, and believes that "by raising a challenge with similar themes — 'smudge buildup' and 'inadequate calibration' replac(ing) 'chad buildup' and the 'hanging chad' — Democrats could win some points" in the fall election, even if McBride is the nominee. LINK

The Florida papers report some simmering tension between the McBride and Reno camps, but most Democrats expect things to unify after Reno's expected concession.

In fact, "Some McBride supporters said they will urge him to appear this week in South Florida with Reno," and we wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see Terry McAuliffe and the state's relatively popular US Senators involved in some unity stuff by the weekend.

Even if he builds up a head of steam, McBride is going to have to run the kind of major-league effort a first-time candidate rarely pulls off to beat Governor Bush.

One sign this week, with Thursday's deadline for McBride to name a running mate: will he pick someone fully vetted AND fully attention-getting, and will his campaign have the savvy and knowledge to take maximum PR advantage of the pick?

Particularly since the very nimble Jeb operation will be ready with oppo and counter-programming, no matter who is picked.

Over the weekend and today, there were reports that McBride is going to shake-up his campaign team. Per the Orlando Sentinel: "Among the staff changes, McBride today is expected to replace campaign manager Robin Rorapaugh, who spearheaded McBride's stunning come-from-behind primary campaign and also has run top campaigns for governor in Texas and other states." LINK

In-state editorial opinion continues to be tilted towards the view that Jeb Bush isn't responsible for any of the problems. LINK

The Herald's Broward overview contains this essential reading for those who wish to be prepared for election night, and potential problems in counties using touch screens: "Election workers then retrieved the plastic shoe box-size containers that hold the cartridges used in the questionable precincts. In many cases, they found that poll workers failed to use a master cartridge to start the machines in the morning and shut them down at night." LINK

"Instead, workers used the 'slave' cartridges which were to be used to activate machines for individual voters."

"In those cases where the wrong cartridge was used to shut down machines and tally the final vote, votes had to be retrieved from the hard drives of the machines they were cast on."

The Sunday Sentinel looked at the fundraising wars in a Bush-McBride match-up. LINK

Here we've been worrying about voting problems not getting fixed by November 2002, but USA Today 's Jim Drinkard raises the possibility that such fixes and real election reform may not even be in place by 2004. LINK

The economy

Home heating costs are rising amidst talk of attacking Iraq, but an actual attack — among other possible factors — could push them even higher in time for winter. LINK

From the "they haven't led, we will" department, courtesy of The Wall Street Journal 's A2, under the humorous-at-second-glance byline Kelly Greene (Did Kelly's parents know what they were doing?): "Health benefits are drying up for today's retirees, and those leaving the work force in the next 20 years will shoulder even more of the costs … "

Also on that page: "U.S. consumers are growing more fearful about future job prospects and the possibility of war with Iraq, but those worries aren't stopping them from spending now."

ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary

In one of The Note's great "there is a difference between what IS and what OUGHT TO BE" paradigms, Matt Drudge sure can still kick up a dust storm when he wants to.

Regarding that Drudge bit on Gore having decided to run in 2004, Deborah Orin (operating from her usual Drudge-o-centric worldview) got Jano on the phone fast and got the denial. LINK

Here's Jano's response to use: "With all due respect to Mr. Drudge, I have a better placed and more definitive source — Al Gore. And I can tell you that he has not made up his mind."

It's all a bit of slightly awkward timing — though for the Gore folks or for Republicans, we can't be sure — that Gore aides are having to deny Drudge-prompted rumors that Gore has decided he's running, at the same time that Republicans are sniping at Gore's relevance, at the same time that the Florida vote count has gotten botched.

"Al Gore questioned the Bush administration's policies on the economy. Republicans responded by questioning whether Gore is relevant to the nation's political debate," the AP's Lester offers as his lead for his take on Gore's Congressional Black Caucus speech Saturday night. LINK

"Gore scoffed at Bush's description of the economic boom during the Clinton-Gore years as a 'binge' … Republicans said Gore is criticizing policies without offering positive alternatives."

"Gore's speech to the foundation dinner could serve to renew his close ties to black voters, a constituency whose support he would need should he decide to seek the White House again in 2004."

We know political reporters tire of politicians' regular arsenals of the same jokes and stories over and over again long before "real" voters and donors ever do — but for goodness sakes, Mr. Vice President, surely your base has heard the Shoney's story by now. And stop being so namby-pamby in your criticism of the reporter who messed it up.

The Boston Globe 's Kornblut writes up Senator John Kerry's efforts to become the lead questioner of "President Bush about his future plans in Iraq, staking out a position as a potential Democratic presidential candidate most willing to challenge the administration on foreign policy." LINK

"On the other hand, Kerry still faces a vote in the Senate authorizing military force. If he votes for it — and at this point many Democrats indicate they will — all his earlier questioning could be forgotten, or seen as empty rhetoric. "At some point he has got to vote, and that's where the rubber meets the road,' one Democratic official said. 'That's where you have to vote yes or no, and what you have said up to that point doesn't matter.'"

"Kerry insists he is simply raising questions, not opposing the administration or other Democrats, and not even his critics accuse him of taking a stand out of political ambition (sic). Supporters suggest that, at most, he is merely capitalizing on his strengths. Asked whether he was purposely seeking to differentiate himself from his Democratic rivals, Kerry replied, 'Foreign policy is not politics.'"

And yet: "'You have to separate out the different John Kerrys. There's John Kerry the US senator, who's part of the views. He speaks his views and his conscience,' one senior White House official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. 'Then you have John Kerry, who's made it clear he's likely to be running for president. I can't speak to what calculations he makes … but the political season has begun.'"

Can you read this George Will column and figure out just what his view of Kerry is? LINK

There IS a Level Three sub-category of the Invisible Primary involving Will's subtly saying kind things about Democrats running for president, which he does typically for one or two wannabes each cycle. He already did it for Edwards.

The Charlotte Observer's Hurt rounds up all the ways in which Edwards is intensifying his attacks on President Bush. LINK

And Elizabeth Dole, not giving up on her proposal to substitute debates for political ads despite Democratic opponent Erskine Bowles' rejection of the idea, is now trying to drag Edwards into the fight by asking for his support for what was, after all, originalyl his idea. LINK

Today and tomorrow, House Minority Leader Gephardt will be traveling in New Hampshire.

Senator Joe Lieberman will campaign with Florida's Democratic gubernatorial nominee during the weekend of September 29-30, and also will raise money for the state party.

We're told that Lieberman will visit New Hampshire twice between now and November 5, and double back to Florida at least once by election day.

Lieberman and frequent legislative crony John McCain plan to propose a separate Senate inquiry of possible September 11 intelligence failures to the homeland security bill, says Roll Call . LINK

Roll Call adds to the fact that Democratic National Committee labor guy Gerald Kavanaugh has been quietly helping Senator John Edwards for some time now, with the possibility that he will help "to run" Edwards' campaign. We'll be checking with the guys who are running the joint now about that terminology … LINK

As Noted above, Tuesday brings the Massachusetts primary. While Senator John Kerry currently has no GOP opponent, "Jack E. Robinson, who won 13 percent of the vote against Senator Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.) in 2000 … had said that he would drop out of the secretary of state race if he garnered enough signatures to qualify for the Senate ballot. He did not, but he has announced a write-in Senate campaign instead." LINK

"Republicans in the Bay State are less than thrilled at the Senate candidacy of Robinson, whose background, including drunken driving and sexual assault allegations, was grist for the mill during the 2000 campaign."

The lead story of the "Invisible Primary 2008 or Year TBD" continues to be the political ambitions of Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, who gets a New York Daily News, Meet-prompted headline today screaming that she's "weighing" a run. LINK

Russert did it just right yesterday, getting the Senator to implicitly admit that she has a different position for being on the national ticket in either slot in 2004 (NO) to being on in 2008 (no plans, no intention).

Campaign finance

New disclosure requirements for 527 groups, a/k/a "stealth PACs," are hanging in the balance after a federal judge "declared unconstitutional three-quarters" of them, Roll Call 's Chappie writes, and the Justice Department has asked for a little clarification. LINK

Meanwhile, Chappie's colleague Amy Keller reports that the Christian Coalition is begging off from participating in the campaign finance court muddle because of rising legal costs. LINK

Politics

On A8 for some reason, The Wall Street Journal says: "The pharmaceuticals industry, already on track to be the largest spender on political advertising this election year outside the major parties, is planning a fusillade of new ads to boost an image tarnished by political attacks and resentment over high prescription-drug prices … "

With Pfizer as the ringleader, the Journal says: "The Pfizer move signals the industry's continued worry over attacks by Democratic politicians and their allies, and growing anger among many consumers struggling to pay for prescriptions, particularly the elderly."

And get ready for the insider stuff embedded in this next graph:

"To respond, Pfizer contracted earlier this year with Edelman Public Relations Worldwide, which now oversees a team that includes two former spokesmen for President Clinton as well as National Media, the ad agency that helped elect President Bush. Pfizer spokesman Nehl Horton emphasized that no decision has been made to proceed with the new campaign. Nonetheless, ads designed to burnish the industry's image have been prepared, and could be aired in key states as early as next week, according to those familiar with the effort. In addition to the feel-good ads, which remind viewers of the industry's health innovations, the Edelman team is developing a plan for a rapid response to comments or proposals on drug issues by candidates or elected officials."

When we read last week about the IRS's plans to crack down on "rich tax cheats" (as a populist Wall Street Journal headline calls them today), we thought, "We wonder if politics enters into this?"

But we slapped ourselves across the cheek and said (we talk to ourselves quite a bit in the early hours), "That's too cynical!"

Today's Journal begs to differ: "Amid a rash of scandals in executive suites, tax avoidance by big corporations and wealthy individuals is emerging as a big theme in fall election campaigns from New Hampshire to Texas. Last week's announcement by IRS officials could help the Bush administration counter resentment among voters that wealthy individuals and big corporations flout tax laws, just as some companies have flouted accounting rules, lawmakers and political observers said."

"In light of this year's business scandals, including the recent criminal charges, 'the pressure is there' from the public, said Rep. Scott McInnis (R., Colo.), a harsh critic of tax avoidance. 'That's why the IRS is doing this … '"

But executive branch "officials denied any political motivation."

Just in case you missed it, the New York Times ' Hulse suggested over the weekend, and just in time for Robert Reich's moment of political truth on Tuesday, that "Bill Clinton's coattails are a bit tattered." LINK

Roll Call 's Preston looks at GOP efforts to convince conservative Democratic Senator Ben Nelson of Nebraska to switch parties: "unlike Jeffords, who was rewarded by Senate Majority Leader Thomas Daschle (D-S.D.) with a committee chairmanship, no formal offer has been made to Nelson. Instead, Republican Senators and White House officials have approached him with a sales pitch described by those involved as a 'soft sell.'" LINK

"Nelson acknowledged that he has been targeted by some Republicans but added, 'I feel comfortable where I am.'"

Four congressional elections out of five, the battle for the House of Representatives is a zero-sum game: a Democratic seat lost to a Republican is a GOP gain, and vice versa.

House elections occuring right after a round of redistricting, however, cannot be viewed as a zero-sum game.

House seats shift with population growth. Some districts literally get taken away from states and given to others. Other states may retain the same number of House districts, but redraw their lines so as to create essentially new seats.

Projectors of elections are confronted with this issue after every round of redistricting: when the House map gets somewhat deconstructed — incumbents getting thrown into districts together, other districts getting left "vacant" — how do you calculate your Democrat/Republican wins and losses to add back up to 435?

"You already know you're in trouble if you can't get your math to add back up," says BIPAC's Bernadette Budde, who actually sat down and figured out a system of "equivalencies" to help her get to 435, as well as figure out what kind of night it could be for Democrats and Republicans.

We have her equivalencies chart. True House junkies and congressional reporters, drop us a line and we'll send it to you.

For the slightly less addicted who are covering the midterm elections, it will be well worth your while to go hear what Budde and her colleagues have to say at BIPAC's media briefing Tuesday at the National Press Club at 11:00 am.

The Washington Post 's Dewar takes the first of what we're guessing will be many looks at the retirements of Sens. Jesse Helms, Phil Gramm and Strom Thurmond, and what it means ideologically and stylistically for the Senate GOP caucus. LINK

Roll Call reports that congressional candidates hoping to burnish their credentials with rural voters by rubbing shoulders with Senator Zell Miller will have to travel to the Peach State to do it, cause Miller's not going to them. LINK

The Washington Post 's Style section reports on the distinctly businesslike air at the Congressional Black Caucus foundation dinner Saturday night. LINK

This week on "Here's the Point," Mark Halperin listens to "An Old Wife's Tale" as told by self-described "public intellectual" Midge Decter. Decter talks about the Cold War, feminism, love and marriage, and how letter-writing has been replaced by e-mail. She also explains the difference between raising a child in Norm Coleman's new hometown, versus his old one (guess which one she thinks is better?). LINK

This is an interview so, well, HOT that ABCNEWS Radio personnel decided they needed to edit out most of the discussion of page 205, about how America is being undermined by the widespread practice of a certain sex act.

Maybe Reverend Jackson doesn't care that the Washington Times follows pretty much his every move. Today the paper reports that Jackson, in a Michigan State University speech over the weekend, arguably dissed the Founding Fathers as "a bunch of white men" and asserted that real democracy didn't begin until 37 years ago. LINK

California

The Washington Times ' Z. Hallow seems to have this exclusively: "Republican Bill Simon, buoyed by the reversal of a fraud verdict, has decided to plow millions of his own dollars into his campaign to unseat California Gov. Gray Davis, Simon associates said. With skeptical donors finally beginning to smile on Mr. Simon's cash-starved campaign 51 days before the election, the candidate has decided to ante up $4 million of his own money to further boost donors' confidence, his associates said privately." LINK

The San Francisco Chronicle writes up Simon's new ad featuring President Bush and Rudy Giuliani, which we thought was a pretty big gamble, since they seemed to be spending just about all their campaign cash on it, until we read Ralph's story. LINK

If the race closes up, third-party candidates could play havoc with the outcome. In addition to that rumored Riordan write-in campaign, several third-party candidates actually are running today, including Green Party candidate Peter Camejo, "a former Berkeley radical whom Ronald Reagan once dubbed 'one of the 10 most dangerous people in California.'" LINK

New Hampshire

Democratic Senate nominee Jeanne Shaheen may have a tough time slapping labels on GOP opponent John Sununu. LINK

And Sununu seems to some observers to have improved as a candidate during that tough primary. LINK

Mr. Landrigan notes that it wasn't just Benson's money that won him the gubernatorial nomination — it was his targeting of independent voters, which may have had something to do with his heavy McCain campaign staff quotient. LINK

Landrigan on Sunday wrote, "The Post -primary shuffle of top campaign aides has already begun. Joel Maiola, chief of staff to Senator Judd Gregg, has moved over as a full-time adviser for Benson." The Pride of Bow, indeed.

New York

Fred Dicker has this in the New York Post : Gov. George "Pataki was described as 'furious' last Tuesday night when he learned that he had lost to Golisano — his first-ever election defeat — in the Independence Party primary. 'The governor had been told by his political "geniuses" that he had the primary in the bag, and they just totally misjudged the situation,' said a prominent Republican insider. 'Pataki was not a happy camper, he was steamed.'" LINK

Pataki kept on working Democratic territory yesterday. LINK

Let's face it: even other top New York political reporters, and New York pols, don't know who "Shaila K. Dewan," the woman (?) who seems to be the lead reporter for the New York Times on the suddenly hot gubernatorial race, is.

Her copy is fine, but so far, not extraordinary.

Today's piece is one of her more interesting yet, as she walks that tightrope a reporter must walk when her time with the candidate (in this case, a trip to DC with Carl McCall for all sorts of partying and PR) is the most interesting aaspct of the story. LINK

As anyone watching Al Gore's speech on C-SPAN knows, and Ms. Dewan points out, Gore's attempt to pump the crowd up to hold fundraisers for McCall's effort seemed to fall flat.

New Jersey

The Torch has ended his support for an Iranian resistance group in the wake of last Thursday's debate surprise by GOP challenger Doug Forrester. LINK

A New Jersey Senate candidate has been jailed (no, not him … ). LINK

Two new polls have good news and bad news for Forrester. LINK

Iowa

Not that we don't think Robin Toner should be writing big-thinky stuff about health policy and the like, or taking care of her adorable young family, but, as her New York piece today on Rep. Jim Leach's battle for re-election in a race Democrats have targeted shows, Ms. Toner hasn't lost a step as one of a handful of masterful political scribes in the nation who can pull off a story like this. LINK

Republican Rep. Jim Nussle and Democratic challenger Ann Hutchinson disagree about why President Bush is visiting Iowa today. LINK

Maybe the two can learn from Rep. Jim Leach and challenger Julie Thomas, who agreed to disagree about a number of things over the weekend. LINK

Tonight brings the first of three debates between Gov. Tom Vilsack (D) and GOP challenger Doug Gross. Read the tale of the tape in the Register. LINK

Texas

Ron Kirk suggested late last week "that class and race were factors in [GOP opponent John] Cornyn's willingness to strike Iraq regardless of the position taken by the United Nations." Cornyn is now saying that "he is mystified" by Kirk's "'divisive'" remarks. LINK

"Mr. Cornyn said his differences with Mr. Kirk were based on policy issues, not personal matters … Mr. Kirk said would side with Mr. Bush, no matter what happened with the United Nations."

And a new Cornyn TV ad "portrays the former Dallas mayor as being soft on military defense and against the appointment of conservative judges … The 30-second commercial compares Mr. Kirk to New York Democratic Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton."

Kirk gets a front-page Washington Post profile, which puts a Senator Kirk on the short list for vice president in 2004. LINK

South Dakota

The Libertarian candidate in the nail-biter South Dakota Senate race has as much potential to flip control of the Senate as anyone, Roll Call 's Cillizza notes. LINK

In the theme of the week, Social Security could make or break Democratic Senator Tim Johnson's job security. LINK

Massachusetts

The day before their gubernatorial primary (and other races), only one thing remains for Democrats to focus on and fret about: turnout. LINK

Call it the "anti-Garry South strategy:" Mitt Romney launched a TV ad yesterday chastizing lieutenant governor candidate Jim Rappaport for going negative on Romney's chosen running mate. LINK

But, the Boston Herald's Macero chimes in, "while Romney does his best to sandbag Jim Rappaport's strong bid for the GOP's lieutenant governor nomination, another question ought to be keeping him awake at night: What happens if his chosen running mate, Kerry Healey, actually wins? Because Mitt Romney can't spend the next six weeks propping up Healey at every campaign turn." LINK

Tennessee

Lamar Alexander still has a big fat lead over Democratic Rep. Bob Clement. LINK

South Carolina

Will reporters from Yankee news organizations EVER tire of writing about Maurice Bessinger? LINK

Bush Administration strategy/personality

As we have said before, one of the many ways that President Bush is underestimated is in his knowledge of how the Washington and political media works, down to the micro-level of what motivates and captivates individual reporters.

So we wonder if 43 has taken to reading Elisabeth Bumiller's well-sourced "White House Letters" in the New York Times , and if he makes a stab at figuring out who is providing the background quotes and the insider color. (We have our own guesses, Mr. President … )

Today's installment: another stab at how much 41 is influencing 43 on the war stuff. LINK

We could do without the closing "Hamlet" parody, however.