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the note
M Versus O
The Two Psychologies of Iowa

By Mark Halperin, Lisa Todorovich, M. Ambinder, David Chalian, Brooke Brower, Gayle Tzemach, Karen Travers, Anne Chiappetta, Teddy Davis, and Nick Schifrin with R. Thomasson, T. Peck and V. Brown

ABCNEWS.com

W A S H I N G T O N, Jan. 19—
Today's Schedule (All times Eastern):

—7:00 am: Gov. Dean, Sens. Kerry and Edwards, and Rep. Gephardt appear on ABC's "Good Morning America"
—8:00 am: Rep. Richard Gephardt attends an "Alliance for Economic Justice" rally at the Four Points Sheraton, Des Moines, Iowa
—8:00 am: Sen. Lieberman shares a "Cup of Joe" at Jackie's Diner, Nashua, N.H.
—8:00 am: Rev. Sharpton visits the Westside Café, Florence, S.C.
—9:00am: Gen. Clark attends a Martin Luther King prayer service at Zion Baptist Church, Columbia, S.C.
—9:00 am: Sen. Edwards observes Martin Luther King Day with State Rep. Wayne Ford and supporters at Top Value Foods, Des Moines, Iowa
—9:00 am: Rev. Sharpton attends the Martin Luther King March, Florence, S.C.
—9:45 am: Sen. Lieberman meets with supporters at his regional campaign office, Keene, N.H.
—10:00am: Gen. Clark speaks about Martin Luther King Day at South Carolina Statehouse, Columbia, S.C.
—10:50 am: Rev Sharpton speak at a NAACP Rally at the State Capitol, Columbia, S.C.
—11:00 am: Sen. Kerry attends a town hall meeting at Scotts Super Value, Norwalk, Iowa
—11:00 am: Rep. Kucinich attends a get out the vote rally at Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa
—11:45 am: Gov. Dean speaks to the Iowa Commission on the Status of African Americans. Des Moines, Iowa,br> —12:00 pm: President Bush attends a luncheon with African American clergy, The White House
—12:00 pm: Laura Bush hosts a luncheon and makes brief remarks to spouses of African-American clergy, The White House
—12:00 pm: Sen. Lieberman greets local residents on Main Street, Hanover, N.H.
—12:00 pm: Sen. Edwards meets with caucus-goers at Willy Woodburn's, Cedar Rapids, Iowa
—12:45 pm: Sen. Kerry attends a town hall meeting at Waukee High School, Waukee, Iowa
—1:30 pm: Rev. Sharpton attends a Martin Luther King day celebration. Harlem, N.Y.
—1:45 pm: Gen. Clark speaks about teaching children about Martin Luther King at South Side High School, Greenville, S.C.
—2:00 pm: Rep. Kucinich attends a get out the vote rally, Cedar Falls, Iowa
—2:15 pm: Sen. Lieberman hosts a town hall meeting at Liberty Mutual, Dover, N.H.
—2:30 pm: Sen. Edwards meets with caucus-goers at Hickory Garden Restaurant, Davenport, Iowa
—3:30 pm: Sen. Kerry attends a "Rally for America's Future" event at the Boone County Fairgrounds, Boone, Iowa
—4:00 pm: Sen. Lieberman meets local residents at Red Blazer Restaurant, Concord, N.H.
—4:00 pm: Rep. Kucinich attends a get out the vote rally, Iowa City, Iowa
—5:15 pm: Gov. Dean attends a "Caucus for Change" Rally at Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa
—5:15 pm: Sen. Kerry attends a "Rally for America's Future" event at Ames High School, Ames, Iowa
—7:00 pm: Rep. Kucinich visits a caucus site, Des Moines, Iowa
—7:05 pm: Sen. Kerry greets caucus-goers at Urbandale High School, Urbandale, Iowa
—7:30 pm: Sen. Lieberman hosts a town hall meeting at Exeter Academy, Exeter, N.H.
—7:45 pm: Gen. Clark attends a "Conversations with Clark" event at his campaign headquarters, Manchester, N.H.
—9:00 pm: Sens. Kerry, Edwards and Lieberman and Gen. Clark appear on CNN's "Larry King Live"
—9:30 pm: Gov. Dean attends a caucus night party at the Val Air Ballroom, West Des Moines, Iowa
—9:30 pm: Sen. Edwards attends a caucus night party at the Renaissance Savery Hotel, Des Moines, Iowa
—9:30 pm: Rep. Kucinich attends a caucus night party at the Kirkwood Hotel, Des Moines, Iowa
—10:45 pm: Sen. Lieberman meets with supporters at his campaign headquarters, Manchester, N.H.
—11:00 pm: Rep. Gephardt attends a caucus night party at the Quality Inn and Suites, Des Moines, Iowa
—11:00 pm: Sen. Kerry attends a caucus night party at the Hotel Fort Des Moines, Iowa
—12:30 am: Rev. Sharpton appears on "The Late Late Show with Craig Kilborn"

NEWS SUMMARY

The caucuses begin at 7:30 pm ET this evening.

The AP's Everyman Ron Fournier calls the race "impossible to predict," and we agree. LINK

But the political universe is of two minds, simultaneously chewing on two (or more) different outcomes and their implications, each coming complete with their own sets of evidence.

The Momentum-ers versus the Organizationers. The Mos versus the Orgs.

The dynamic M's contend that the Des Moines Register poll shows a distinct and hard trend among undecided voters in the direction of Kerry and Edwards; they contend that the political press has overstated the advantages of unions and hackeysack champions to turn out voters; they believe that the Dean hard count, in particular, has been oversold and many Dean voters are turning to their number two choices. Bigger turnouts benefit the M's.

They predict a Kerry-Edwards or Edwards-Kerry top-two finish, followed by Dean and Gephardt — or even Gephardt and Dean. They're the ones who point out that nearly half of voters polled in the Register survey say they're undecided — and more likely than not to end up with the surgers.

The static O's believe that the momentum thing is overrated; that the caucuses are too complex for individual voters without an organization to corral them; that Dean and Gephardt's hard counts are solid and firm; that the legion of Dean and Gephardt volunteers spread throughout the state will prove dispositive; that the polls don't account for newly registered voters; that the Alliance for Economic Justice machine that's coordinating union organizers for Gephardt are tough and determined.

They're the ones who state, over and over again, "whoever gets those 35,000 people to vote … will win."

Will the O's or the M's prevail? It depends on the answers to these questions about tonight's caucuses and caucusgoers:

(a) Will these folks be the universe of usual suspects? How many of them will be people who have never voted in a caucus before?

(b) Will they be new Gen-x'ers?

(c) Is anecdotal evidence about new voter registration in middle-to-upper class college towns evidence of a hidden Dean surge?

(d) What will the Kucinich voters do if they encounter threshold problems?

(e) What will union turnout be like? Will Gephardt have the advantage here because his unions are more experienced — or will Dean, because his unions are more evenly distributed across the state?

(f) Has everyone overstated the ability of unions to turn out voters on behalf of their chosen candidates? And understated the ability of average Iowans to know how to caucus without instructions and social cues? If Iowans know how to get the caucus sites themselves, and if they know the rules, maybe the all-powerful factor of union organizing will matter less than people think.

(g) How will the networks, the AP, and the papers cover the entrance poll results versus the actual results?

And don't get us started (just yet) on what the 19 Reporters Who Decide What It All Means will say about whichever of these various scenarios comes true tonight.

Incidentally, the state's Democrat-in-chief, Gov. Tom Vilsack predicts a turnout of about 120,000. Secretary of State Chet Culver thinks it may go as high as 125,000.

The candidates made lots of morning appearances, but we heard no news made.

All of this has taken its toll on the candidates.

ABC News campaign reporter Ed O'Keefe reports that Senator John Kerry has completely lost his voice.

He will skip his first three events, but a surrogate speaker might fill in.

We know a good lot of you wonder how much money the candidates have spent in Iowa. As you know, The campaigns are tight-lipped about spending figures, and even rival campaigns have a hard time making reliable estimates. Every active presidential campaign has until Jan. 31 to disclose its spending through the 4th quarter of 2003, and we won't know until mid-February how much was spent in January.

Here's what we can say: The Dean campaign has spent well in excess of $22 million nationally, including at least $3 million on television advertisements in Iowa alone. Several people familiar with the situation in Iowa, including David Redlawsk, a politically connected Democratic political scientist who tracks the issue, estimate that Dean has also spent more (probably much more than) $3 million — in staff, field operations and direct mail.

Based on other sourcing, we can say that Dean has spent more than $7 million on Iowa. The actual total, if it's ever known, will probably be a lot higher.

Our guestimates for other candidates: Kerry: more than $4.4 million … Edwards and Gephardt, more than $ 3 million. (Yes, yes, we're aware of the caps … and the exemptions … and the allocation formulas.)

And Note: we said "on" Iowa … not "in" Iowa. Big difference.

Good luck to all of the campaigns and candidates — we know how hard you have worked.

President Bush is at the White House today attending a lunch with African-American clergy members.

Gov. Dean, Sens. Edwards and Kerry, and Reps. Gephardt and Kucinich are all in Iowa today for the caucuses..

Gen. Clark is in South Carolina this morning before returning to New Hampshire tonight.

Senator Lieberman is in New Hampshire today.

Rev. Sharpton is in Washington, D.C. and New York City today.

Iowa:

"The last week has been a nightmare for Dean," Novak writes in a total must read. Novak believes that Dean's slide in Iowa started when Dean shouted at a Republican heckler: "You sit down! You had your say! Now, I'm going to have my say!" LINK

The Des Moines Register 's Yepsen sees the potential for "as many as three winners tonight." Dean could win tonight because he has assembled "what his organizers claim is the best get-out-the-vote operation ever built in the state," a second-place Kerry finish could give him a boost in New Hampshire, a third-place Edwards finish could give him a boost in South Carolina. LINK

"Howard Dean created a national stir with his use of the Internet to build support for his campaign, but John Kerry has the edge among likely Iowa caucus participants who have received political information via the Web, the Des Moines Register reports. LINK

Adam Nagourney and Jim Rutenberg wrap up the last day before the Iowa caucuses — Noting that the candidates tried to keep the day's discourse civil but Kerry failed to do so when, with a grin, he poked fun of Edwards' youthful appearance (and Edwards sniped back about his working to pay for college). LINK

The Washington Post 's Dan Balz highlights Dean with Carter and Dean with Dean; Kerry with Kennedy; Gephardt's ignition of the labor base; and Edwards' strong and enthusiastic (and optimistic) crowds. LINK

Los Angeles Times' Glionna reports that "old pals" Steve Murphy and Joe Trippi, the campaign managers for Dick Gephardt and Howard Dean, are in "the fight of their lives." LINK

Ron Brownstein of the Los Angeles Times reports on what each of the candidates are pushing as their distinctive message: with Dean, it's that he stood up to Bush when others didn't; for Edwards, it's that he is the "polite populist" who won't say bad things about his rivals; for Kerry, it's his experience; for Gephardt, it's his "tribal sense of solidarity" with those in the union movement. LINK

USA Today 's Jill Lawrence and Susan Page Note, "The opening presidential contest will propel some campaigns and perhaps end others." LINK

The New York Times ' Todd Purdum writes that "depending on your viewpoint, the Iowa caucuses have become either an established ornament of American democracy or an unrepresentative abomination" and reminds readers that Iowa is "far from a reliable predictor of the eventual nominee." LINK

The New York Times ' ed board opines that, like the caucuses or not, this year's version "created a kind of trial by fire that allowed the voters to see how well Howard Dean, who led the pack for most of the campaign, might fare under the kind of unimaginable pressure and scrutiny that come with a modern American presidential race." LINK

The Chicago Tribune's Jeff Zeleny and Flynn McRoberts write about the "T" word. LINK

The New York Times ' Rick Lyman Notes that in such a tight race, "the turnout of a few thousand caucus novices might well spell the difference in many of the 1,993 neighborhood gatherings" — and not just for Dean. LINK

The New York Times describes the efforts of the Iowa Democratic Party to boost turnout and give networks the final results of the caucuses by 11:00 pm ET. LINK

The Washington Post 's Paul Farhi writes about the joys of late events in Iowa. LINK

The Chicago Tribune's Dan Mihalopoulos writes about the short history of city-slicker gaffes with Iowa farmers. LINK

Anne Kornblut had Sunday wrap-up responsibilities in Iowa for the Boston Globe . LINK

Kornblut Notes: "Rather than winnowing the field as expected, the outcome tonight could keep three or four candidates' campaigns alive through the New Hampshire primary next Tuesday, extending the process into states that vote Feb. 3 or later."

The Boston Globe 's Rick Klein explores the candidates' GOTV operation in precinct 55 by Drake University. LINK

Walter Shapiro is just about giddy in Des Moines. LINK

John Wagner follows Edwards' hopes of turning a "late wave of support into a surprise showing tonight."

LINK

The Wall Street Journal 's Harwood and Schlesinger smartly assess the State of the Race with better news for Kerry than for Dean — but also a reminder that Dean leads in the organization and money game, even if he can't always control his image in the press.

The Des Moines Register sums up a final day of campaigning: Dean being thanked by Carter for opposing the Iraq war, Edwards bordering on swagger, Kerry stumping with Kennedy, Gephardt rallying with union supporters, and Kucinich urging his supporters to call their friends. LINK

The Des Moines Register 's Ken Fuson crams five candidates into one frantic, final day of campaigning. LINK

The Des Moines Register 's Jane Norman reports that the moment of decision has arrived and she notes Gordon Fischer's appearance on ABC's "This Week." LINK

The Des Moines Register writes up Tom Brokaw's final experience covering an Iowa caucus. LINK

ABC News Vote 2004: the Democratic nomination fight:

The Christian Science Monitor's Liz Marlantes prepares us for a possible lonnnnnnng primary battle. LINK

And beyond Iowa, the New York Times ' Ed Wyatt reports on George McGovern's endorsement of Wesley Clark and Clark's, Lieberman's, and Sharpton's courting of South Carolina. LINK

Surrogates get space on the Boston Globe op-ed page. Kennedy for Kerry, Reiner and Sheen for Dean, D'Allesandra for Edwards, and Clyburn for Gephardt. Lieberman, Kucinich, Clark, and Sharpton backers get their say too. LINK , LINK , LINK , LINK , LINK , LINK , LINK , LINK

New Hampshire:

The Los Angeles Times' Eric Slater reports that once Iowa is over, Clark and Lieberman will have to share the stage with their opponents in New Hampshire. LINK

Elizabeth Rosenthal writes in the New York Times that voters in New Hampshire "are sometimes unwitting actors in a political sideshow whose raucous magnitude often seems to dwarf this tiny, quiet state." LINK

The Manchester Union-Leader reports that many New Hampshire voters are still undecided. LINK

While the political world focuses on Iowa, George McGovern stumps for Gen. Wesley Clark in New Hampshire. The Manchester Union-Leader writes it up. LINK

Polls schmolls. Kate McCann of the AP writes that a recent tracking poll in the Granite State shows Senator John Kerry moving on up. LINK

The New Haven Register points out that Senator Lieberman's staff is having a field day attacking Gen. Clark out there in New Hampshire. LINK

Politics Live:

Politics Live on the big, big screen (yes, we are talking about the Times Square Jumbotran) is back today.

If you've missed the edge-of-your-seat interviews and in-depth political reporting on the sow, we'll let you off the hook … as long as you check it out today.

Donna Brazile, Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, and yet another super secret guest (Note: last week that was red-hot Senator John Edwards) will be appearing for all the New York City tourists to see in Times Square and for you to watch online.

And if you're still thinking you're "too busy" or "too cool" to watch this A-list show, you just ask the campaigns how they are changing their schedules to be there.

Here's a clip from last week to test out:
http://play.rbn.com/?url=realone/abcnews/open/g2demand/promo_politicslive.rm&proto=rtsp

The program is also available to AOL subscribers.

But you can't tell the players without a program — which means ya gotta sign up to have ABC News Live delivered right to your desk top.
http://abcnews.go.com/webcasts/Landing/ROlanding_index.html

Gephardt:

From ABC News' Gephardt campaign reporter Sally Hawkins:

Campaign manager Steve Murphy said they are expecting a very close race and results could take well into Tuesday morning to have the final tally. Gephardt's plans to depart Des Moines before midnight for New Hampshire could be pushed back until as late as 9 am Tuesday if the race is so close that every vote matters.

The Gephardt campaign is anticipating turnout at about 120,000, but one thing is clear. The smaller the turnout, the better off Gephardt is. Murphy says, if an unlikely 140,000 or more people turn out, then "all bets are off" on their predictions. Another senior staff member explained that the more people who show up beyond the 120,000 mark, the more people who are showing up for other candidates and not Gephardt. Their hard count is solid, they say. Iowa state director John Lapp has been checking his list and going over it twice for months.

Read more from the campaign trail on ABCNews.com: LINK

Deirdre Shesgreen of the St.Louis Post-Dispatch Notes Gephardt's optimism in Iowa despite the polls. LINK

The Washington Post 's Mark Leibovich writes that of the four leading candidates in the Iowa caucuses, "Gephardt's predicament would seem the most urgent. And poignant, even, in these last pre-caucus days, as his voice grows hoarse and his poll numbers slip." LINK

The Washington Post 's Lois Romano on Gephardt's Sunday: It's all about the James P. Hoffa, Jr. LINK

USA Today 's Andrea Stone reports the Gephardt campaign's accusation that the Dean campaign wanted its out-of-state volunteers to pass themselves off as Iowa voters "triggered intense training to teach poll watchers how to catch ringers." LINK

Kerry:

From ABC News Kerry campaign reporter Ed O'Keefe:

WATERLOO, IOWA, Jan. 18 — Senator John F. Kerry, whisked by plane and helicopter to hold an average of seven events per day in the week preceding the Iowa caucuses, logged 1,880 Hawkeye miles in the "Real Deal Express" this past week, and then found himself in an usual position come Sunday.

The Senator, for the first time since July 2003, was lowering expectations.

Read more from the trail on ABCNews.com. LINK

USA Today 's Andrea Stone writes on the resurrection of John Kerry, at the "top" of a four-way tie in Iowa. LINK

The Washington Post 's Ceci Connolly writes that "Kerry reveled in the boisterous, celebratory mood enveloping him" yesterday. LINK

Patrick Healy of the Boston Globe writes up Senator Kerry's "stunning comeback." LINK

"'Kerry was always sort of lurking behind and waiting for Dean to stumble, and Dean managed to do it,' said Perevill Squire, a political analyst at the University of Iowa. 'Kerry wasn't really a new face like Edwards. He just was a solid alternative to Dean. And he had built the field staff across Iowa that could pounce once Dean was in trouble.'"

Dean:

From ABC News' Dean campaign reporter Reena Singh:

IOWA CITY, IOWA, Jan. 18 — At the conclusion of the Maranatha Baptist Church's two-hour service featuring lounge act choir hits by Billy Shaw and a sermon including a anecdote on Benjamin Franklin's aversion to bathing, former President Jimmy Carter and his wife Rosalynn, shook hands and posed for pictures on a front lawn littered with pecan shells. As reporters watched the Peach State's royal couple and the long winding receiving line, they couldn't help but wonder: Where was Howard Dean's Rosalynn?

On a bumpy bus avail Saturday, the Governor was asked if his family was joining him on caucus night. After a curt, "no," Dean went on to explain saying, "One is 19 and in college, one is in high school and one has a practice with patients who depend on her." Despite her husband's protests, Mrs. Dean did make it to the Hawkeye State on the eve of the Iowa caucuses.

Landing in Davenport, Iowa, on a Leer jet, a senior staffer said Judy Dean was nervous as she practiced her speech on the bus ride to the couple's first campaign appearance. However, upon taking the stage to "Judy" chants, the humble newcomer delivered a gracious statement beginning with, "For those who may be wondering, my name is Judy Dean." Obviously unaccustomed to the spotlight, Mrs. Dean looked back over her shoulder to her husband who clapped and smiled. When Mrs. Dean stepped away from the podium, thunderous applause indicated that the simplicity and humility worked like a charm.

Read more from the trail on ABCNews.com. LINK

Howard and Judy: LINK

The New York Times ' Jodi Wilgoren reports that while Dean said he decided to travel to Georgia because he couldn't say "no" to a former president, Carter said that the visit had actually been Dean's idea and that he hoped all the Democratic candidates would follow. LINK

And Wilgoren reports that Dean asked his wife to show up on the trail at the suggestion Mrs. Harkin. LINK

The Wall Street Journal 's Jackie Calmes writes that the tightening of the nomination race has pushed back Dean's expected push toward the political center.

"Fellow Democrats' jibes on taxes have given Mr. Dean a foretaste of what Republicans would fire at him and his response is evolving. He tells voters they are paying higher property taxes, college tuitions and health-insurance premiums as local governments, states and employers face budget squeezes and federal cuts."

The New York Post 's Deborah Orin and Vincent Morris call Mrs. Dean the Governor's "secret weapon" in their write-up about the four-way race, including Joe Trippi's "eke it out" comment about tonight's caucuses.

LINK

USA Today 's Jill Lawrence writes about where the Carter support helps Dean — namely the religious and moral fronts. LINK

The Washington Post 's David Maraniss reports on the heat and energy of the Dean Dubuque headquarters. LINK

The Washington Post 's John Harris reports on the Dean-Carter meeting and reminds us that "presidential reputations move in cycles." LINK

This weekend in Iowa, Peter Jennings sat down for a one-on-one conversation with former Gov. Dean.

JENNINGS: Do you ever get the feeling, in the closing day of the caucus, that you're out of control, or that it is somehow out of control, out of your control? DEAN: The caucuses? Well, of course, you know, nothing is ever entirely in control, but we have some really good people that are working really, really hard. And it's who goes to the polls. Do people in Iowa care enough about changing this country to show up at 6:30 on Monday? And that's the whole premise behind the campaign, is that we can take our country back. And now we're going to find out. JENNINGS: And what do you think Iowa will accomplish for the Democratic Party, given the fact that there are four of you now bunched quite closely together? DEAN: I think Iowa will weed this out. Somebody's going to win, somebody's not going to win. And it will start weeding people out.

Watch World News Tonight for more.

Edwards:

From ABC News' Edwards campaign reporter Gloria Riviera:

DES MOINES, IOWA, Jan. 18 — "That … was off the hook."

It was almost as if he said it to himself.

Senator Edwards, settling into his tan leather seat on the campaign's chartered Gulfstream II jet, sounded as incredulous as he was ever so slightly wide-eyed. At quarter to 5 on Sunday afternoon Edwards spoke to the single largest and most raucous crowd to date in his campaign at the Drake University student auditorium. Packed into the room, standing in the hallway was an estimated … what? 650? A thousand? No matter what end of the spectrum the actual attendance number be, either closer to what can be generous campaign estimates or conservative journalist's head counts, one thing was indisputable. There is a moment at which the energy of an event, the cumulative energy of a crowd, becomes self-perpetuating. When an orator's cadence defines the incline of an entire room's emotional trajectory. And then, the moment at which the two simultaneously feed off one another and the phrase "fever pitch" make complete sense. Such moments were in abundance for Senator Edwards on Sunday.

At no point in this campaign has Edwards enjoyed (and he is clearly enjoying it) the added duty of visiting overflow rooms at his own events. At no point has he had to slow his entrance walk because people actually grab and tug and pull on his coat, his shirtsleeve, his hand.

Read more from the campaign trail on ABCNews.com. LINK

The Washington Post 's Vanessa Williams writes up Mr. Optimism's Sunday in Iowa. LINK

USA Today 's Lawrence writes about what Edwards has to feel good about. LINK

Edwards: Everyman — just like Fournier!!! … LINK

NASCAR Dads … LINK

Clark:

From ABC News Clark campaign reporter Deborah Apton:

KEENE, N.H., Jan. 18-It is the end of the Clark campaign's isolated stay in the Granite State. Come Tuesday, Gen. Clark will experience his first primary of his first election against seven other candidates seeking to bump him from his steady upward climb in New Hampshire. But the question remains: Can Clark handle the spotlight?

In the past week, Clark has been giddy. He's smiling, kidding around with press and staffers, but he's also had moments where a paranoia/defensive/frustration seeps through — albeit brief, they are there. In the past week he's had to face questions about his "dismissal" as NATO Supreme Allied Commander and his lobbying activities, as well as planted questions from opposition campaigns and first time LaRouche activists who come to shout out, well, "LaRouche-isms."

On Sunday, Clark was asked by a man, reading off a piece of paper, about his lobbying activities during a Q&A session. "Is that maybe a prepared question from another campaign?" Clark fired back. After going on to answer the question, the man interrupted The General. "Sit down," said Clark, "I'm going to finish it, I'm going to answer it." Just a few days earlier, a young woman asked Clark about his NATO "dismissal" — I was not dismissed, Clark was quick to say, seemingly annoyed about a question he's gotten over and over.

Read more from the trail on ABCNews.com: LINK

Lieberman:

From ABC News Lieberman campaign reporter Talesha Reynolds:

COLUMBIA, S.C., Jan 18 — Shirley Loggins drove four hours from Tennessee to Greenwood, S.C. just to tell Joe Lieberman that Al Gore did not speak for all Tennesseans when he endorsed Howard Dean. She wore a suit bearing Lieberman buttons and stickers on one lapel and a Tennessee state seal broach on the other. Lieberman was touched, but Loggins' support may not be enough to help him through the next couple of weeks.

Just one week ago, Lieberman was in Oklahoma and Arizona boasting of being in a numerical tie with John Kerry for third place in New Hampshire, according to ARG. "Third and rising," he called it. But there was no mention Sunday of the most recent ARG results showing Lieberman in fifth place, behind Dean, Clark, Kerry and Edwards.

The third place finish Lieberman was hoping for may be slipping from his reach, but Lieberman is not giving up without a fight, and he still insists that the race is wide open. "Much flux means much hope," he said riding between Saluda and Aiken on the WinnebaJoe.

Read more from the campaign trail on ABCNews.com: LINK

The Washington Post 's Jonathan Finer reports on Lieberman's proposed tax breaks and social programs. LINK

Kucinich:

From ABC News' Kucinich campaign reporter Melinda Arons:

DES MOINES IOWA, Jan. 18 — Rep. Kucinich rarely criticizes his fellow candidates by name, but Sunday afternoon in Iowa City he was forced to express his opinion about a certain former governor from Vermont.

Speaking to a packed crowd at the Hamburg Inn restaurant, where outside he'd already given a speech atop a chair to the freezing cold people who couldn't fit inside, Kucinich was handed a Dean flyer by a supporter who asked him to clarify its contents. The flyer made the now-familiar claim, in big bold capital letters, that Dean is the only candidate who opposed the war from the start.

To Kucinich and his followers, nothing could be more offensive than to imply, even in the most subtle way, that Kucinich ever supported the invasion of Iraq. Though Dean has started to acknowledge Kucinich's anti-war stance in speeches and at debates (after Kucinich personally asked him to do so when Dean ran a television ad making the same statement in New Hampshire), the campaign's literature doesn't reflect the distinction. Kucinich spent about ten minutes addressing the issue, saying "I don't understand why Dr. Dean is doing this … .it's false. The nominee should have integrity. I'm very disappointed."

Read more from the campaign trail on ABCNews.com: LINK

ABC News Vote 2004: Bush-Cheney Re-Elect:

The New York Times ' Elisabeth Bumiller and Carl Hulse report that the timing of Bush's State of the Union is deliberate. "Was it planned? Yes. The fact that the Iowa caucus was going to be held on a certain date was not unknown to people in the White House," said a Republican close to the Bush campaign.

LINK

Giuliani, Frist, Matalin, Reed — the Washington Post 's Mike Allen reports on the big GOP names in Iowa today.

LINK

Elisabeth Bumiller writes that given Democrats' penchant to mention him, Karl Rove, "the powerful White House political strategist they consider President Bush's evil genius might as well be on the ballot."

LINK

William Safire believes "the major campaign event this week is the president's State of the Union address" and gives a primer of the all the (potentially) important diction.

LINK

Wall Street Journal 's Hitt reports that the State of the Union address will be frontloaded with remarks on the war on terrorism but will then shift to domestic issues, as President Bush acknowledges voter concerns and themes that could drive his re-election effort.

Washington Times ' Sammon reports that President Bush's strategists may now be working on a contingency plan in the event that Dean is not the Democratic nominee.

LINK

And stop the presses — the usually press-shy Vice President Cheney granted interviews to a few national political reporters for profile pieces:

Cheney's low-key, no-nonsense style is all part of his charm, writes the Los Angeles Times' Maura Reynolds, as the Vice President gets ready to hit the road to appeal to the GOP's conservative base and to tout the president's wisdom and experience dealing with threats.

LINK

And USA Today 's Judy Keen writes that politics is drawing Cheney out from his undisclosed location and onto the campaign trail, where he says he will be "perfectly happy" to counter Democratic critics as the campaign heats up.

LINK

ABC 2004: The Campaign Bus Logs

From Onawa to Sabula, from New Ipswich to Scott Bog, ABC News' Campaign Buses — Red, White and Blue are the biggest things to hit Iowa and New Hampshire since Jack Germond. They feature full-service production suites, hungry reporters, and fun-loving producers — and they're the centerpiece of ABC News' Vote 2004 coverage.

Those bus producers — some of them legends in the broadcast business — file memos to the news division every night, providing a unique look at life on the road. Here are some of their observations.

From ABC News' Leo Meidlinger on the Blue Bus:

"General Clark seemed most energized and more at ease during two 'town-hall' meeting events today. But, then it is his last day before the 'Iowans' invade."

"Highlight #1--It certainly wasn't the chicken noodle soup for lunch at the downtown Holiday Inn. Order something their chefs are accustomed to making, like gruel."

Major Futures & Reader Services

— Jan. 16, 2004: Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Sen. Tom Daschle (D-S.D.) deliver remarks at the National Press Club, D.C.
— Jan. 16-18, 2004: California Democratic Party convention, San Jose, Calif.
— Jan. 17, 2004: Dubuque County Democrats presidential candidates forum, Dubuque, Iowa
— Jan. 19, 2004: Iowa caucuses
— Jan. 20, 2004: President Bush delivers the State of the Union, D.C.
— Jan. 20, 2004: Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Sen. Tom Daschle (D-S.D.) deliver the Democratic response to the State of the Union, D.C.
— Jan. 22, 2004: WMUR-TV Democratic presidential candidates debate
— Jan. 22, 2004: Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) keynotes NARAL Pro-Choice America's Roe v. Wade Anniversary Dinner Celebration, D.C.
— Jan. 22, 2004: 31st annual March for Life, D.C.
— Jan. 23, 2004: National Health Policy Forum, Manchester, N.H.
— Jan. 24, 2004: 100 Club New Hampshire Democratic Party Annual Fundraiser, Sheraton Tara, Nashua, N.H.
— Jan. 27, 2004: New Hampshire primary
— Jan. 29, 2004: South Carolina Democratic Party presidential candidates debate, Greenville, S.C.
— Jan. 30, 2004: Center for Community Change's presidential candidates forum, Columbia, S.C.
— Jan. 31, 2004: Final 2003 fourth quarter campaign finance reports due to FEC
— Jan. 31, 2004: Rep. Richard Gephardt (D-Mo.)'s birthday
— Jan. 31, 2004: "Hip Hop Summit" for voter registration, Houston
— Feb. 1, 2004: Super Bowl XXXVIII, Houston
— Feb. 3, 2004: Delaware presidential primary
— Feb. 3, 2004: South Carolina Democratic presidential primary
— Feb. 3, 2004: Missouri presidential primary
— Feb. 3, 2004: Arizona presidential primary
— Feb. 3, 2004: New Mexico Democratic caucuses
— Feb. 3, 2004: Virginia GOP caucuses
— Feb. 3, 2004: Oklahoma presidential primary
— Feb. 3, 2004: North Dakota Democratic caucuses
— Feb. 4, 2004: Washington Press Club Foundation's congressional dinner, D.C.
— Feb. 7, 2004: Michigan Democratic caucuses
— Feb. 7, 2004: Washington Democratic caucuses
— Feb. 8, 2004: Maine Democratic caucuses
— Feb. 8, 2004: 46th Annual Grammy Awards, Los Angeles
— Feb. 8, 2004: NHL All-Star Game, St. Paul, Minn.
— Feb. 10, 2004: Virginia Democratic presidential primary
— Feb. 10, 2004: Tennessee presidential primary
— Feb. 10, 2004: District of Columbia Republican caucus
— Feb. 14, 2004: Nevada Democratic caucuses
— Feb. 15, 2004: NBA All-Star Game, Los Angeles
— Feb. 15, 2004: NASCAR Daytona 500, Daytona Beach, Fla.
— Feb. 17, 2004: Wisconsin presidential primary
— Feb. 17, 2004: Special election for Kentucky's 6th congressional district seat
— Feb. 21-24, 2004: National Governors Association winter meeting, D.C.
— Feb. 22, 2004: Sen. Bill Frist (R-Tenn.)'s birthday
— Feb. 24, 2004: Idaho Democratic caucuses
— Feb. 24, 2004: Michigan GOP presidential primary
— Feb. 24, 2004: Sen. Joseph Lieberman (D-Conn.)'s birthday
— Feb. 24, 2004: Hawaii Democratic caucuses
— Feb. 24, 2004: Utah Democratic presidential primary
— Feb. 26, 2004: CNN/L.A. Times co-host Democratic presidential debate
— Feb. 29, 2004: 76th Annual Academy Awards, Los Angeles
— March 2, 2004: California presidential/state primary
— March 2, 2004: Connecticut presidential primary
— March 2, 2004: Georgia presidential primary
— March 2, 2004: Maryland presidential/state primary
— March 2, 2004: Massachusetts presidential primary
— March 2, 2004: Minnesota caucuses
— March 2, 2004: New York presidential primary
— March 2, 2004: Ohio presidential/state primary
— March 2, 2004: Rhode Island presidential primary
— March 2, 2004: Vermont presidential primary
— March 7, 2004: Season premiere of "The Sopranos" on HBO
— March 8, 2004: American Samoa Democratic caucuses
— March 9, 2004: Texas presidential/state primary
— March 9, 2004: Florida presidential primary
— March 9, 2004: Louisiana presidential primary
— March 9, 2004: Mississippi presidential/state primary
— March 11, 2004: Radio and Television News Directors' Foundation's First Amendment dinner, D.C.
— March 13, 2004: Kansas Democratic caucuses
— March 16, 2004: Illinois presidential/state primary
— March 20, 2004: Wyoming Democratic caucuses
— March 20, 2004: Alaska Democratic caucuses
— March 20, 2004: Guam Democratic caucuses
— March 24, 2004: Radio and Television Correspondents' Association's dinner, D.C.
— April 3-5, 2004: NCAA men's basketball final four, San Antonio
— April 4-6, 2004: NCAA women's basketball final four, New Orleans
— April 5, 2004: Opening day for Major League Baseball
— April 13, 2004: Colorado Democratic caucuses
— April 16-18, 2004: Log Cabin Republicans national convention, Palm Springs, Calif.
— April 16-18, 2004: National Rifle Association annual meeting, Pittsburgh
— April 17, 2004: Virgin Islands presidential primary
— April 25, 2004: "Save Women's Lives: March for Freedom of Choice," D.C.
— April 27, 2004: Pennsylvania presidential/state primary
— May 1, 2004: White House Correspondents' Association dinner, D.C.
— May 4, 2004: Indiana presidential/state primary
— May 4, 2004: North Carolina presidential/state primary
— May 11, 2004: Nebraska presidential primary
— May 11, 2004: West Virginia presidential primary
— May 18, 2004: Arkansas presidential primary
— May 18, 2004: Oregon presidential primary
— May 18, 2004: Kentucky presidential primary
— June 1, 2004: Alabama presidential primary
— June 1, 2004: South Dakota presidential primary and special election for the state's at-large congressional seat
— June 6, 2004: Puerto Rico Democratic caucuses
— June 8, 2004: New Jersey presidential primary
— June 8, 2004: Montana presidential primary
— June 24-27, 2004: Green Party National Convention, Milwaukee
— July 13, 2004: 75th Major League Baseball All-Star Game, Houston
— July 26-29, 2004: Democratic National Convention, Boston
— Aug. 14-29, 2004: Summer Olympic Games, Athens, Greece
— Aug. 30-Sept. 2, 2004: Republican National Convention, New York City
— Aug. 31, 2004: Florida state primary
— Sept. 30, 2004: Proposed presidential debate at the University of Miami, Miami
— Oct. 5, 2004: Proposed vice presidential debate at Case Western University, Cleveland
— Oct. 8, 2004: Proposed presidential debate at Washington University, St. Louis
— Oct. 13, 2004: Proposed presidential debate at Arizona State University, Tempe
— Nov. 2, 2004: Election Day

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