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the note
"The Dynamic Is Untested"
"A Slog of Delegate Accumulation"

By Mark Halperin, Lisa Todorovich, M. Ambinder, David Chalian, Brooke Brower, Gayle Tzemach, Karen Travers, Anne Chiappetta, Teddy Davis, and Nick Schifrin with R. Thomasson, T. Peck and V. Brown

ABCNEWS.com

W A S H I N G T O N, Jan. 21—
Today's Schedule (All times Eastern):

—9:00 am: Sen. Kerry drops by Auto Body Garage, Manchester, N.H.
—9:45 am: Off-camera press gaggle with White House Press Secretary Scott McClellan
—10:00 am: Sen Edwards holds a town hall meeting at Winnacunnet High School, Hampton, N.H.
—10:30 am: Gen. Wesley Clark speaks to his staff and supporters at his campaign headquarters, Manchester, N.H.
—11:15 am: Sen. Lieberman speaks to students at Merrimack Valley High School, Penacook, N.H.
—11:30 am: Gov. Dean speaks at a rally at the Holiday Inn, Manchester, N.H.
—12:00 pm: Sen. Edwards meets with voters at the public library, Manchester, N.H.
—1:15 pm: Rep. Dennis Kucinich delivers his "State of the Nation" address from the Wayfare Inn, Bedford, N.H.
—1:00 pm: Politics Live on ABCNews.com
—1:30 pm: Sen. Lieberman speaks to students at the University of New Hampshire, Durham, N.H.
—2:00 pm: Rep. Richard Gephardt gives a press conference at the America's Center, St. Louis, Mo.
—2:15 pm: Sen. Lieberman holds a town hall meeting with Timberland employees. Stratham, N.H.
—4:00 pm: Sen. Lieberman meets local residents at Red Blazer Restaurant, Concord, N.H.
—4:30 pm: Gov. Dean attends a rally at the Dr. Goldie Crocker Wellness Center, Concord, N.H.
—5:30 pm: Sen. Kerry attends the Pembroke Town Hall Chili Feed with Governor Shaheen, Pembroke, N.H.
—7:30 pm: Sen. Lieberman hosts a town hall meeting at Phillips Exeter Academy, Exeter, N.H.
—8:00 pm: Sen. Kerry attends a Carole King Concert with Governor Shaheen, Concord, N.H.
—8:00 pm: Gen. Clark appears on CNN's "Paula Zahn Now"
—8:30 pm: Gen Clark responds to the President's State of the Union at a town hall meeting. Manchester, N.H.
—9:00 pm: Sen. Kerry watches the State of the Union address with a New Hampshire family, Concord, N.H.
—9:01 pm: President Bush delivers the State of the Union, Washington, D.C.
—10:45 pm: Sen. Lieberman meets with supporters at his campaign headquarters, Manchester, N.H

NEWS SUMMARY

Mo trumped O, as everyone can plainly see.

But it is also possible that Mo created and nurtured dynamic new O's — and that's only one reason why this nomination contest is now quite wide open — for the honor of going up against the incumbent, who will astride the network roadblock like a colossus in primetime this evening.

Rather than talk about beating (or failing to meet expectations), we prefer to look at the Iowa results in terms of how the candidates performed and what it says about their future chances for success:

1. Kerry — the obvious, big winner. He took the counterintuitive step of leaving his native New England — where his aides said he was so far behind Dean he couldn't make enough headway attacking him frontally — and went to the Midwest, where his veteran native and imported staff had built a stronger organization than many understood.

He took another risk by mortgaging his own home, rejecting the public financing and the spending limits that come with it, and pouring resources into Iowa, where he made up a lot of ground in the last two months.

He also proved true to his reputation from past campaigns of fighting hard and improving his campaign performance when his back is to the wall.

Kerry is well positioned in New Hampshire — having lost a huge lead when Dean rose there — but now hovering around second place with Wes Clark and with experienced Granite State operatives Jeanne Shaheen and Michael Whouley there to help him.

A strong Iowa win will give Kerry a head of steam into New Hampshire, but he has regularly made mistakes throughout this campaign, and he will face a lot of pressure from Edwards, Clark, and maybe Dean and/or Lieberman. He is also sure to get some of the press and opponent scrutiny that has until now largely gone to Dean.

Where will Kerry go beyond New Hampshire? That's an interesting question to watch.

2. Edwards — proved that he could improve as a candidate. It appears as if his gentle, populist message left a positive impression with a lot of people.

Edwards faces a choice: does he use his momentum to try and place in New Hampshire — or does he stake more of his effort in South Carolina? He has a strong New Hampshire team already in place, and he has spent a lot of quality time in New Hampshire, just as he had in Iowa.

And Nick Baldick has eaten at Richard's Bistro a time or two.

Will the son of a millworker be able to duplicate his nice-guy-above-the-fray routine in New Hampshire and beyond? And will his opponents start to take him on now? And how much money — from trial lawyers and others — can he raise off of this success?

Maybe he'll get help from Gephardt staffers: ABC News' Gephardt campaign reporter Sally Hawkins reports that Gephardt's Iowa state director John Lapp is encouraging his field staffers to jump to the Edwards campaign in the immediate future.

3. Dean — the mirror image of Kerry. He had a chance in Iowa to go for broke and put all of his resources out there and he failed to perform. The campaign outspent everyone else, tested its vaunted ground troops, and got Dean to visit every county in the state.

His campaign believes they turned out all of their "ones" — their hard count voters — but that the caucus became a primary based on momentum, and they were ill-suited to win a primary. If that's the case, Dean needs a new game plan because there are a lot of primaries coming up.

Can Dean regroup? Is he a "bleeder," who won't be able to fight back? Will his financial and political supporters be energized? Does he still have a money advantage?

Dean's notion that his campaign is a "movement" based on the "people" is obviously going to sound a bit hallow until and unless Dean wins something.

Most important will Dean himself react? Some of his staff are already second-guessing some decisions that were made, and bemoaning the candidate's winter gaffes. Inside his campaign and with the public, Dean will have to show a lot of leadership to fight back successfully.

And last night — just when the Gang of 500 was saying Dean can only save himself by a radical transformation making him seem more presidential on a regular basis, he gave a concession speech that even Drudge isn't overreacting to.

On the other, silver-lined hand, the campaign has always made it known it wanted a Clark-Kerry-Dean race in New Hampshire, rather than a Dean-Clark race. It just didn't expect it on these terms — and with a strong Edwards in the mix too.

The AP reports that Clark reacted to Kerry's win by saying: "It's one thing to be a hero as a junior officer. He's done that; I respect that … but I've got the military experience at the top as well as at the bottom." LINK

The Dean campaign is hoping that Clark and Kerry continue to tear into each other (allowing him to do some Edwardsian sneaking up the middle) … and they believe that Dean's organization in New Hampshire is far superior to his organization in Iowa.

"I can't think if we're not gonna win [in Iowa] than a better scenario … .is it being John Kerry here … in New Hampshire, where we have a better organization than anyone," said a senior adviser who was with the governor last night.

Dean may stay above the fray, continuing to harshly criticize President Bush, clinging to his us-versus-them cantations, while remaining relatively mute about his opponents. At least for now. He will not emphasize the war as much as he did in Iowa, though that does not represent a significant change in New Hampshire strategy.

Said one adviser: "Dean is so much more comfortable when he's having to fight back. He doesn't know how to be on top."

But how does he fight back without alienating people?

There are some internal arguments now about strategy — some of his staff for example, has always been uncomfortable with the "Angry Dean" and urged a broader, more moderate, less angry focus on economic issues.

Others have questioned the anti-Establishment focus of his rhetoric, believing it to be hollow and contradictory.

Still others believe the campaign focused way too much of its time and attention on picking small fights with opponents and outside interest groups.

Yet others believe the campaign wasted precious time and resources in Iowa, throwing in a bunch of money and senior advisers at the last minute to pump an operation when they ought to have been more focused on strategically positioning their candidate in a post-Saddam's capture America.

And, again, what to make of his pumped up performance last night?

"And then we're going to Washington, D.C. to take back the white house … YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEAH!"

Last night's Dean is not the Dean that the pundits want to see

But if he doesn't do this, then he has no way of distinguishing himself.

He made his bed by being an angry, anti-war 'movement' message populist. That's his bed. Now he'll sleep in it — at least some of the time.

But, Gina G./Jon Haber: a guy who needs to look presidential needs to whoop less.

After months of running from the frontrunner position, can Dean come from behind again?

4. Gephardt — a proud and honorable man will now to get spend more time with wife and family and take that long vacation Jane always wanted.

5. Clark!

6. Lieberman (?!)

And remember: these guys — they don't always play nice together — and the sharp elbows go beyond Clark and Kerry.

Remember:

--Kerry on Edwards' late Sixties diapers

--Kerry on Clark's being a headquarters guy

--Clark on Dean's snow adventures

--Dorie versus Judy, round one.

--Lieberman on Dean's spider-hole fantasies.

--Lieberman on Clark's Swetting, shifting war position

--Kerry calling Clark pro-CREEP

Last night was good night for:

Gordon Fischer (Note to Gordon: you were right. The caucuses were cleaner than a hound's tooth and it did turn out to be a jump ball. Congratulations. Incidentally, this is your last reference ever in The Note. Thanks for everything.)

James Carville — anyone who listened to him at 801 on Sunday night got a 20-hour jump on the results.

The husband of Mrs. Tom Vilsack — and Mrs. Tom Vilsack.

Michael Woo-hou-ley (and John Norris).

The 527s.

Jennifer O'Malley and Aaron Pickrell.

Breck.

Those who want Feb. 3 to be unpredictable and wide open (And who's got the jump on those Show Me delegates now?).

Late-breaking voters.

Glen Johnson.

Christopher Hitchens.

The Des Moines Register .

Voters voting on the experience issue.

Prospective voters.

Ginseng in the morning, Ambien at night.

The predictive value of the famed Jordan-to-Cahill and Gibbs-to-Cutter memos.

WMUR/Union Leader/FNC/ABC.

Last night was a bad night for:

Hard counts.

News organization election budgets.

David Yepsen's prediction average.

Organized labor — not one but both their candidates lost the labor vote to John Kerry.

Gerry McEntee's peace of mind.

Political organizations of all kinds.

Party bosses — All the powers of Gore, Harkin, and even a late pic with Carter weren't enough to move the voters.

Wilgoren Watch bloggers.

Senator Harkin.

Wes Clark (?).

Retrospective voters.

Diet Pepsi.

Questions going forward:

How long does this thing last?

Has Kerry already moved in New Hampshire as much as his folks claim? What will the first post-Iowa public polls look like — nationally and in New Hampshire?

Whither Joe Lieberman? And what will his Union Leader endorsement mean?

What do the unpledged superdels make of the Dean performance? Does Dean lose any endorsements?

How many investigative stories on The General will we see in the next seven days? And how much will they matter?

How about on Kerry?

What is Al Gore thinking this fine Tuesday morning?

Where, if anywhere, does Gephardt's labor support go? How quickly, if at all, does Gephardt endorse Edwards? Does Jesse Jackson revise his revised decision to not endorse before Feb. 3?

How often is Bill Clinton talking to Eli Segal this week?

Where's Kerry gonna make his stand on Feb. 3?

Mo can trump O, but can Mo trump Karen Hicks?

President Bush delivers the State of the Union address tonight.

Sens. Kerry, Edwards and Lieberman, Gov. Dean, Gen. Clark, and Rep. Kucinich are all in New Hampshire today.

Rep. Gephardt is expected to drop out of the race in St. Louis today.

Rev. Al Sharpton has no public events.

Iowa caucuses

The AP's Ron Fournier reports that "John Kerry and John Edwards rode 11th-hour surges to a one-two finish in Iowa's kickoff presidential caucuses Monday, dealing a stunning blow to Democratic front-runner Howard Dean." LINK

The Des Moines Register 's Tom Beaumont leads with Kerry capping "a dramatic Iowa turnaround" and Dean being dealt "a serious blow." LINK

Dan Balz saw a bad day for organized labor, too. LINK

The Los Angeles Times' Barabak reports that last night's results were "a clear case of momentum trumping organization." LINK

Steve Rosenthal says it's now a "'whole new ballgame." LINK

Al Hunt writes in The Wall Street Journal of the strategic decisions facing the leading campaigns, Noting that Thursday's debate is the "biggest intervening event over the next week."

Bob Novak writes Dean's candidacy is in "deep trouble," warns Kerry to avoid earlier "blunders" and says Edwards could become a "serious contender," before Noting that predictions about where this all ends are "foolhardy." LINK

The New York Times ' Adam Nagourney says Monday evening's results constitute a "serious setback for Dr. Dean," given that the governor "campaigned intensely across this state for more than a year." LINK

Conventional wisdom arguing organization trumps all in Iowa has been "shattered," reports the New York Times in its Iowa analysis by Kate's dad. LINK

The New York Times ' Cardwell and Wyatt turn their attention to New Hampshire and wonder whether Senator Lieberman and General Wesley Clark's calculated risk of staying in New Hampshire will pay off. LINK

David Yepsen of the Des Moines Register Notes Iowans impressions of the candidates and reflects on Dean's angry liberalism. LINK

After many up and downs, Senator John Kerry leaves Iowa on a big up, reports the New York Times ' David Halbfinger. LINK

The New York Times ' Rachel Swarns looks at Rep. Dick Gephardt's last hours in politics. LINK

The New York Times ' Jodi Wilgoren Notes last evening was Dean's first defeat in his "charmed political life." LINK

The New York Times ' ed board praises this "moment of pragmatism" as it writes of Monday's Iowa "surprise," in a shameless, belated attempt to make up with the Hawkeye State. LINK

David Brooks offers a rather sunny look at what he's learned about the Democratic Party these last weeks, writing the Dems "desperately want to remove Bush, but they are not haters" and speaking of the "stubborn faith in politics" he's seen in Iowa. LINK

The Wall Street Journal 's Harwood, Schlesinger and Murray on the "wide-open" race, Noting that the most "immediate question" for Dean is "whether he can recover with a victory in New Hampshire, where he has built a devoted following, especially among young liberal voters, that his strategists believe can withstand early setbacks."

The Wall Street Journal 's Rogers and Schlesinger write on the coming Clark-Kerry match-up and the "intensified" "sniping" now passing back and forth between the two.

The Washington Post 's Ceci Connolly profiles the "once and future frontrunner," Senator John Kerry. LINK

"The senator vowed to "shock the world" with his performance here, and he succeeded," reports the Washington Post 's Vanessa Williams' in her profile of Senator John Edwards. LINK

"Just an hour before the caucuses began meeting, Dean told supporters America was about to learn whether his unorthodox, grass-roots e-campaign could translate into a winning election strategy. His campaign anticipated finishing first or a close second because of its commanding fundraising, huge get-out-the-vote operation and appeal to younger voters," writes the Washington Post 's Jim VandeHei, "It wasn't to be, but Dean vowed to push forward with his campaign." LINK

Says Mark Jurkowitz of the Globe: the Mo's have it, at least on television. LINK

Peter Canellos at the Boston Globe sees the state of the race thusly: John Kerry heads into NH strong, Granite Staters will give John Edwards a second and third look, Wes Clark will start to feel like a pincushion, and Howard Dean's fundraising potential among anti-war supporters remains undiminished. LINK

The Globe's Thomas Oliphant says this year's caucuses prove that sometimes nice guys named "John" finish first. And second. LINK

The Washington Post reports David Maraniss takes a look at how the Iowa caucuses played out in precinct 21. LINK

The Associated Press Notes the results of a survey of Iowa caucus goers conducted by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International. LINK

SOTU

"President Bush intends to use his State of the Union address on Tuesday to set out a multipart approach to helping Americans deal with rising health care costs, including a possible expansion of tax-free savings accounts for medical expenses," reports Richard Stevenson in his SOTU preview. LINK

"President Bush plans to take up the volatile issue of defining marriage in his State of the Union address tonight, reminding listeners that he considers marriage to be the union of a man and a woman but stopping short of endorsing a ban on gay marriage," reports the Washington Post 's Mike Allen. LINK

The Washington Post 's Amy Goldstein looks back at some of the past policy proposals President Bush has laid out at the SOTU and how they have done.

LINK

"President Bush will increase Medicare payments to health maintenance organizations and other private health plans by a record 10.6 percent in an effort to persuade them to enter the Medicare market and increase benefits for the elderly," reports Robert Pear of the New York Times . LINK

The New York Times ' David Sanger and Neil MacFarquhar note the two-year anniversary of the "axis of evil" SOTU while looking at whether the Bush foreign policy doctrine has been successful.

LINK

A new Washington Post -ABC News poll shows that the American public that has become broadly dissatisfied with the Bush administration domestic agenda, reports the Washington Post 's Richard Morin and Dana Milbank. LINK

"While Bush retains the support of nearly six in 10 Americans, the public believes Democrats would do a better job on domestic issues, such as the economy, prescription drugs for the elderly, health insurance, Medicare, the budget deficit, immigration and taxes. And Bush has lost the advantage on education policy he once enjoyed."

Kerry:

From ABC News Kerry campaign reporter Ed O'Keefe:

DES MOINES, IOWA, January 19--On Sept. 2, 2003, Senator John F. Kerry stepped into the Grand Ballroom at the historic Hotel Fort Des Moines only hours after he had stepped on his own announcement tour message, embroiling his campaign in a "staff shakeup" drama that would haunt the Kerry camp for three long months.

On Monday night, Kerry walked out of that same ballroom the upset winner, regaining the frontrunner status lost somewhere in Dean's hot summer.

The Senator heard the first set of entrance poll numbers while traveling on the "Real Deal Express" from his final Iowa event to Urbandale High School, a bustling caucus site for 1,400 people.

Kerry waded his way through the crowd, signing autographs, posing for pictures and making one last pitch, "Help the undecideds," Kerry cried, "Don't let them get away!"

By the time the Senator reached Suite 1014 in downtown Des Moines, it was fast becoming clear that his 76 long days in the Hawkeye State were about to pay off.

Read more from the trail online at ABCNews.com: LINK

The Los Angeles Times' LaGanga reports Kerry was able to "come through at crunch time." LINK

"With John Kerry the big victor of the Iowa caucuses, his camp says they hope it will translate to New Hampshire, but warned it's a long way before victory," the Union Leader reports. LINK

The Los Angeles Times' James Rainey reports that Ward 4 "continued its long-running knack for picking winners in the Iowa caucuses when Senator John F. Kerry became the top choice among its 147 Democratic participants." LINK

At the Globe, Ann E. Kornblut sees the Comeback Kerry. LINK

Gephardt:

From ABC News Gephardt campaign reporter Sally Hawkins:

ST. LOUIS, MO,Jan 20--It all happened so fast. One minute, reporters in the Gephardt filing room were barely settling in to spend, what many believed, would be a long night of ups and downs as the precinct numbers rolled in. Some tried to assess what would happen if he placed second, or maybe even third. Then, the numbers began rolling in, the fog lifted, and Gephardt's political future began to unravel. The murder-suicide between Dean and Gephardt came into focus.

The distress signals were everywhere. At 7:50 pm, Gephardt canceled his interview on Larry King Live, ten minutes before show time. He was a no-show at the hotel well after his scheduled arrival time and Gephardt's campaign manager Steve Murphy was stone faced as he paced back and forth on his cell phone. He told a couple of reporters that early turnout numbers appeared high — and he said earlier that "all bets were off" if turnout went beyond their expectations of 120,000. And they did … .way beyond.

Word had been swirling for days that if Gephardt were to lose Iowa and drop out of the race, he would likely go to his hometown to make an official announcement. The defining moment came when a reporter asked whether plans to fly to New Hampshire and South Carolina for Tuesday's events, were still set. "Are we still taking the charter to New Hampshire," said a reporter? "I don't know" was the answer a spokesman gave. I don't know? That was telling. Less than an hour later, campaign press secretary Erik Smith announced that we would be traveling to St. Louis shortly after Gephardt made a statement. It was over.

According to campaign staffers, the mood behind the scenes was surprisingly easy. Early in the evening, Gephardt knew the end was near and there was not much discussion among staffers. One senior campaign staffer expressed thanks for the decision to cut the cord right away rather than die a slow death. In the ballroom, supporters and friends gathered — and the tears were flowing. Gephardt too teared up while delivering a heartfelt speech in which he spoke of his son's struggle with cancer. "I've been through tougher fights in my life. When I watched my 2-year old son fight terminal cancer and win." After the speech, an easy-going Gephardt made his way around the room hugging supporters and staffers, some who were inconsolable.

Read more from the trail online at ABCNews.com: LINK

The St. Louis Post Dispatch's Deirdre Shesgreen reports that "caucus slam dunk looks like end for Gephardt's political career." LINK +

The Los Angeles Times' Nick Anderson reports that "Monday's crushing fourth-place finish in the Iowa caucuses is particularly poignant for Gephardt because Iowa helped make him a national politician: His first presidential campaign in 1988 would be no more than a footnote in history if he had not won a resounding and surprising victory in Iowa, catapulting the then-obscure Missouri congressman into national prominence." LINK

"In the end, his impressive political career, more than a decade of congressional leadership and the backing of 21 international unions could not help Rep. Richard A. Gephardt (D-Mo.) overcome the perception that he was an old-style Democrat in an election cycle when voters were looking for someone new," writes the Washington Post 's Lois Romano. LINK

Edwards:

Consider a story told to us by a young Edwards volunteer who had never experienced a caucus before.

At about 2 pm yesterday, he received a call from an Edwards field organizer asking him to be a precinct captain in Ankeny.

The volunteer had no idea what that would entail, so he rushed to Edwards headquarters in Des Moines, picked up a few pieces of paper that described caucus math, made it to Ankeny, and managed to corral a share of the delegates. He knew just enough about how the caucus worked to make sure the surge of Edwards supporters there got in the right corner and said the right thing.

The spontaneous momentum of Edwards created a spontaneous organization.

From ABC News Edwards campaign reporter Gloria Riviera:

MANCHESTER, NH, Jan. 19--Sometimes it is hard to acknowledge a "moment" as it is happening. But on caucus night in Iowa as the very first indications of a possible second place finish reached the Senator and his wife in their suite at the Savery Hotel in downtown Des Moines, John Edwards was certain about one thing.

This was his moment.

Asked if it was the biggest night of his political career, the Senator did not hesitate for a flash. "Of course," he said rather gravely.

At 8:15pm a small group of reporters met with the Edwards in their suite, where the mood in the room was anticipatory and tense. The Edwards sat side by side glued to CSPAN, leaning forward toward the television with hands clasped in their laps. Campaign manager Nick Baldick said that in the run up to Monday, there were hopeful discussions of a close third place finish. Conventional and heavily touted spin would have had even a fourth place finish declared a victory, and not without justification. It was only one week ago the campaign celebrated the Des Moines Register endorsement by telling reporters it help them convince Iowans to take Edwards' candidacy seriously.

But even then, though there were no high fives, there were the first signs of barely suppressible grins on the faces of senior staff on down. Miles Lackey tried but failed to hide a full ear to ear grin as reporters filed out, and Sam Meyers Sr. wore a suit and tie for the occasion. Something, it seemed, was up.

Read more from the trail online at ABCNews.com. LINK

The Raleigh News & Observer's John Wagner writes up the caucus results under the headline: "Kerry, Edwards soar." LINK

Kucinich:

From ABC News Kucinich campaign reporter Melinda Arons:

DES MOINES, IOWA Jan 19--Rep. Dennis Kucinich was the only candidate in the 2004 Iowa caucuses to actually come in exactly where he'd been expected to from the start … dead last.

But unlike Rep. Gephardt and the other top-tier candidates who will inevitably drop out to save face after disappointing finishes, Kucinich tried to turn Monday night's defeat into a rallying cry for his die-hard following, pledging to take his anti-war campaign all the way to the convention.

Amid the wild cheers of a packed ballroom after the caucus results had come in, a hoarse and red-faced Kucinich employed that special brand of logic unique to him and his supporters, which he terms as optimistic but others might call delusional: "We started off one of nine candidates and were considered to be in ninth place. Because we came to Iowa … because we took this message to Iowa, over a period of 11 months we've moved up from ninth to fifth. We're gonna bring our troops home, we're gonna keep this campaign going, we're gonna go on to New Hampshire, South Carolina, New Mexico, Arizona, to the West, to the North, to the South … we will win at the convention!"

Read more from the trail online at ABCNews.com: LINK

Dean:

From ABC News Dean campaign reporter Reena Singh:

SOMEWHERE OVER AMERICA, Jan 20--"On the plane ride, Gov. Dean slept while Joe Trippi and Paul Maslin worked the aisles of the new MD-80 press plane. Trippi explained tonight's third place finish as a 'murder-suicide' and 'classic politics 101.'"

"Gephardt decided that he had to beat us at all costs and killed himself and damaged us pretty badly. He ran negative ads on us week after week and made it a two man race and then these two guys who weren't in it came up and practically stole our message. I mean if you closed your eyes and listened to them tonight, it's Howard Dean. One mistake we made was getting in front of Gephardt. But you can't control that."

Maslin said the campaign was looking forward to New Hampshire, which has the best organization in the country. He also said that the campaign inadvertently attracted Edwards supporters to the precincts via the Governor's energizing message.

Governor Dean begins campaigning as the underdog (again) in a little under five hours.

Read more from the trail online at ABCNews.com: LINK

The Los Angeles Times' Matea Gold reports that the "longtime frontrunner shrugs off Iowa finish with perhaps his most frenzied speech yet." LINK

Lieberman:

From ABC News Lieberman campaign reporter Talesha Reynolds:

MANCHESTER, JAN 19--After telling voters about their Clear Choices and the Third and Better Way he represents, an energized Lieberman unveiled a stump speech Monday that the campaign is sure will resonate with New Hampshire voters who may be having second thoughts about others in the race. It's simple idea: "I can beat George Bush." Karl Rove, Lieberman now says, has a strategy to defeat all the other Democratic candidates but has no playbook on him.

In making that case, Lieberman took an out of character pot shot at POTUS. He told a group gathered for a rally in his Keene campaign office, "I supported the Gulf War, I supported the Gulf War. I supported the War on terrorism. I wrote the homeland security department bill. I knew who Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein were and was fighting them before George W. Bush could pronounce their names."

Lieberman repeated the comment later in the day to applause and the line appeared in the day's campaign press release as "before George Bush even learned to spell their names."

When ABC News asked Lieberman whether the comment qualified as a personal attack, the kind Mr. Integrity says he shuns and the kind he has criticized Howard Dean for making, Lieberman said it was "more like good humor in the midst of a campaign rally."

Read more from the campaign trail at ABCNews.com: LINK

Clark:

From ABC News Clark campaign reporter Deborah Apton:

MANCHESTER, NH, Jan. 19-Clark stopped by a local pizza place to pick-up pies for staffers before heading to the Manchester Clark04 headquarters to make a calls to supporters, go live with Larry King, and hold a presser about the news of the day-a.k.a. Kerry's first place finish.

Press crowded into one of the offices watching about five television monitors as networks predicted the outcome of the Iowa caucus. In the main room, volunteers pretended to work on campaign mailings. For most of the evening, Clark sat with staffers in an office as press and volunteers mulled around, looking at pagers and blackberries and yelling out numbers. But when it was time for Clark to speak, he made it clear: It seems the two-man race Clark spoke of just last week between him and Dean has shifted to a two-man race between him and Kerry … so Clark thinks.

Eli Segal and other Clark staffers seemed perplexed by the Kerry, Edwards, Dean finish and the Gephardt pull-out as they floated around the office, listening to TVs report the latest numbers. "I think it's the same race," Clark told press just before 10:00pm in a press availability. "I've got to go out and communicate with voters in New Hampshire whether it was Dean or Edwards or Kerry."

But the campaign knows this is not the same race. Come Tuesday, it's a four-man race as Kerry, Edwards, and Dean join Clark in New Hampshire. And, as for the Clark campaign, they're not sure of: a) how The General will handle opposition attacks; and 2) how Clark will deal with the press' spotlight and constant attention.

David S. Broder writes in the Washington Post about the large crowds Gen. Wesley Clark is drawing in New Hampshire and whether he has the staying power. LINK

Read more from the trail online at ABCNews.com: LINK

Politics Live:

Politics Live on the big, big screen (yes, we are talking about the Times Square Jumbotran) is revving up for a great show today.

If you've missed the edge-of-your-seat interviews and in-depth political reporting on the sow, we'll let you off the hook … as long as you check it out now.

On the Jumbotron today: the caucuses, looking ahead to New Hampshire, plus full coverage of SOTU.

And if you're still thinking you're "too busy" or "too cool" to watch this A-list show, you just ask the campaigns how they are changing their schedules to be there.

Here's a clip from last week to test out.
http://play.rbn.com/?url=realone/abcnews/open/g2demand/promo_politicslive.rm&proto=rtsp

The program is also available to AOL subscribers.

But you can't tell the players without a program — which means ya gotta sign up to have ABC News Live delivered right to your desk top.
http://abcnews.go.com/webcasts/Landing/ROlanding_index.html

ABC Vote 2004: Bush-Cheney re-elect:

From ABC News Bush-Cheney campaign reporter Karen Travers:

As for the Democrats, the Bush-Cheney campaign did not have specific reaction to last night's results.

"We have been prepared since Day One for a close election, regardless of who the Democrats select to run against President Bush," Bush-Cheney '04 campaign spokesman Scott Stanzel said. "That's why we had surrogates in Iowa to work on the grassroots, to register new voters and turn them out in November.

Read more on the campaign trail at ABCNews.com: LINK

Major Futures & Reader Services

— Jan. 20, 2004: President Bush delivers the State of the Union, D.C.
— Jan. 20, 2004: Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Sen. Tom Daschle (D-S.D.) deliver the Democratic response to the State of the Union, D.C.
— Jan. 22, 2004: WMUR-TV Democratic presidential candidates debate
— Jan. 22, 2004: Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) keynotes NARAL Pro-Choice America's Roe v. Wade Anniversary Dinner Celebration, D.C.
— Jan. 22, 2004: 31st annual March for Life, D.C.
— Jan. 23, 2004: National Health Policy Forum, Manchester, N.H.
— Jan. 24, 2004: 100 Club New Hampshire Democratic Party Annual Fundraiser, Sheraton Tara, Nashua, N.H.
— Jan. 27, 2004: New Hampshire primary
— Jan. 29, 2004: South Carolina Democratic Party presidential candidates debate, Greenville, S.C.
— Jan. 30, 2004: Center for Community Change's presidential candidates forum, Columbia, S.C.
— Jan. 31, 2004: Final 2003 fourth quarter campaign finance reports due to FEC
— Jan. 31, 2004: Rep. Richard Gephardt (D-Mo.)'s birthday
— Jan. 31, 2004: "Hip Hop Summit" for voter registration, Houston
— Feb. 1, 2004: Super Bowl XXXVIII, Houston
— Feb. 3, 2004: Delaware presidential primary
— Feb. 3, 2004: South Carolina Democratic presidential primary
— Feb. 3, 2004: Missouri presidential primary
— Feb. 3, 2004: Arizona presidential primary
— Feb. 3, 2004: New Mexico Democratic caucuses
— Feb. 3, 2004: Virginia GOP caucuses
— Feb. 3, 2004: Oklahoma presidential primary
— Feb. 3, 2004: North Dakota Democratic caucuses
— Feb. 4, 2004: Washington Press Club Foundation's congressional dinner, D.C.
— Feb. 7, 2004: Michigan Democratic caucuses
— Feb. 7, 2004: Washington Democratic caucuses
— Feb. 8, 2004: Maine Democratic caucuses
— Feb. 8, 2004: 46th Annual Grammy Awards, Los Angeles
— Feb. 8, 2004: NHL All-Star Game, St. Paul, Minn.
— Feb. 10, 2004: Virginia Democratic presidential primary
— Feb. 10, 2004: Tennessee presidential primary
— Feb. 10, 2004: District of Columbia Republican caucus
— Feb. 14, 2004: Nevada Democratic caucuses
— Feb. 15, 2004: NBA All-Star Game, Los Angeles
— Feb. 15, 2004: NASCAR Daytona 500, Daytona Beach, Fla.
— Feb. 17, 2004: Wisconsin presidential primary
— Feb. 17, 2004: Special election for Kentucky's 6th congressional district seat
— Feb. 21-24, 2004: National Governors Association winter meeting, D.C.
— Feb. 22, 2004: Sen. Bill Frist (R-Tenn.)'s birthday
— Feb. 24, 2004: Idaho Democratic caucuses
— Feb. 24, 2004: Michigan GOP presidential primary
— Feb. 24, 2004: Sen. Joseph Lieberman (D-Conn.)'s birthday
— Feb. 24, 2004: Hawaii Democratic caucuses
— Feb. 24, 2004: Utah Democratic presidential primary
— Feb. 26, 2004: CNN/L.A. Times co-host Democratic presidential debate
— Feb. 29, 2004: 76th Annual Academy Awards, Los Angeles
— March 2, 2004: California presidential/state primary
— March 2, 2004: Connecticut presidential primary
— March 2, 2004: Georgia presidential primary
— March 2, 2004: Maryland presidential/state primary
— March 2, 2004: Massachusetts presidential primary
— March 2, 2004: Minnesota caucuses
— March 2, 2004: New York presidential primary
— March 2, 2004: Ohio presidential/state primary
— March 2, 2004: Rhode Island presidential primary
— March 2, 2004: Vermont presidential primary
— March 7, 2004: Season premiere of "The Sopranos" on HBO
— March 8, 2004: American Samoa Democratic caucuses
— March 9, 2004: Texas presidential/state primary
— March 9, 2004: Florida presidential primary
— March 9, 2004: Louisiana presidential primary
— March 9, 2004: Mississippi presidential/state primary
— March 11, 2004: Radio and Television News Directors' Foundation's First Amendment dinner, D.C.
— March 13, 2004: Kansas Democratic caucuses
— March 16, 2004: Illinois presidential/state primary
— March 20, 2004: Wyoming Democratic caucuses
— March 20, 2004: Alaska Democratic caucuses
— March 20, 2004: Guam Democratic caucuses
— March 24, 2004: Radio and Television Correspondents' Association's dinner, D.C.
— April 3-5, 2004: NCAA men's basketball final four, San Antonio
— April 4-6, 2004: NCAA women's basketball final four, New Orleans
— April 5, 2004: Opening day for Major League Baseball
— April 13, 2004: Colorado Democratic caucuses
— April 16-18, 2004: Log Cabin Republicans national convention, Palm Springs, Calif.
— April 16-18, 2004: National Rifle Association annual meeting, Pittsburgh
— April 17, 2004: Virgin Islands presidential primary
— April 25, 2004: "Save Women's Lives: March for Freedom of Choice," D.C.
— April 27, 2004: Pennsylvania presidential/state primary
— May 1, 2004: White House Correspondents' Association dinner, D.C.
— May 4, 2004: Indiana presidential/state primary
— May 4, 2004: North Carolina presidential/state primary
— May 11, 2004: Nebraska presidential primary
— May 11, 2004: West Virginia presidential primary
— May 18, 2004: Arkansas presidential primary
— May 18, 2004: Oregon presidential primary
— May 18, 2004: Kentucky presidential primary
— June 1, 2004: Alabama presidential primary
— June 1, 2004: South Dakota presidential primary and special election for the state's at-large congressional seat
— June 6, 2004: Puerto Rico Democratic caucuses
— June 8, 2004: New Jersey presidential primary
— June 8, 2004: Montana presidential primary
— June 24-27, 2004: Green Party National Convention, Milwaukee
— July 13, 2004: 75th Major League Baseball All-Star Game, Houston
— July 26-29, 2004: Democratic National Convention, Boston
— Aug. 14-29, 2004: Summer Olympic Games, Athens, Greece
— Aug. 30-Sept. 2, 2004: Republican National Convention, New York City
— Aug. 31, 2004: Florida state primary
— Sept. 30, 2004: Proposed presidential debate at the University of Miami, Miami
— Oct. 5, 2004: Proposed vice presidential debate at Case Western University, Cleveland
— Oct. 8, 2004: Proposed presidential debate at Washington University, St. Louis
— Oct. 13, 2004: Proposed presidential debate at Arizona State University, Tempe
— Nov. 2, 2004: Election Day

Note Archives updated all the time.

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