—9:00 am: Governor Howard Dean addresses the IAMAW conference, (Machinists Union), Cincinnati, Ohio
—9:15 am: Senate convenes for legislative business
—9:20 am: President Bush makes remarks at the Aids Support Organization clinic, Pretoria, South Africa
—10:00 am: President Bush departs Pretoria, South Africa
—10:00 am: Congressman Dick Gephardt addresses the IAMAW conference, Cincinnati, Ohio
—12:30 pm: Ambassador Carol Moseley Braun keynotes an African American leadership seminar, Fort Lauderdale, Fla.
—2:55 pm: President Bush arrives in Abuja, Nigeria
—5:15 pm: Governor Howard Dean, Ambassador Carol Moseley Braun, Congressman Dennis Kucinich, and Reverend Al Sharpton attend NOW presidential candidates forum on women's rights, Arlington, Va.
—6:00 pm: Senator Edwards addresses the Southwest Voter Registration Education Project Latin Vote 2003 Banquet

NEWS SUMMARY

While actors from both major parties are busy politicizing the pre- and post-Iraqi war situtations, let's take a step back for just a nano-second and take the politics out of all of this.

The White House is right: that there was and is majority support in the Congress and the country for removing Saddam Hussein from power whether or not Iraq was trying to get nuclear material from Niger; and that the Democrats don't have a single comprehensive plan for dealing with the current situation in Iraq.

The Democrats are right: that what the president said in the SOTU was factually wrong; that the White House has not been fully forthcoming about how the error made it through the Big Speech vetting process; and that the war's aftermath is costing more than the American people had been led to believe.

The substantive unknowns: how DID that line make the speech?; how much time and gold will finishing the job in Iraq take?; and how many more Martha Raddatz/Walter Pincus stories on this topic will there be?

Okay, enough substance.

Back to the politics of Iraq.

First of all, read President Bush's oh-so-carefully crafted statement on the topic as uttered to the pool this morning (after Dr. Rice had said much the same thing aboard a certain airplane):

"I gave a speech to the nation that was cleared by the intelligence services. And it was a speech that detailed to the American people the dangers posed by the Saddam Hussein regime. And my government took the appropriate response to those dangers. And as a result, the world is going to be more secure and more peaceful."

We could spend the rest of The Note parsing that, but our general view is that if you read us regularly, you are probably the type of person who can parse it yourself.

The Niger story has been around (for what seems like) forever, but started to build to a hotter political boil after the Joseph Wilson op-ed over the weekend.

Yesterday, the moon and stars alligned, and in short order we had:

(1) the Democratic National Committee trying to raise money on the web AND get some free/unearned media for a hard-hitting video press release on Niger that they emailed to many many people;

(2) Howard Dean putting out a statement suggesting that anyone who lied should resign from the administration;

(3) John Kerry sauntering into the Senate electronic media gallery to make a stong (The Kerry campaign loves that word … ) argument criticizing the president's handling of post-war Iraq; and

(4) RNC Chairman-in-Waiting Ed Gillespie putting out a boffo statement we like so much that we produce it here in full:

"Democrats are tripping over themselves to get to the left of Howard Dean when it comes to Iraq in order to appeal to the anti-war activists in their party, but nothing changes the fact that the international community was in universal agreement that Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction and he was willing to use them before. What is their policy when it comes to handling evidence that a dictator with a history of using weapons of mass destruction against his own people is developing more? Their politics may appeal to their anti-war base, but their lack of policy won't make our country more secure."

We printed Eddie's money statement in toto because it is a classic of the genre, but also because this cycle's press coverage is by any objective standard tilted completely towards the Democrat(ic) point of view.

From the Howard Dean two-way on Good Morning America to John Kerry with a major role in the Andrea Mitchell spot on Nightly News last night, to John DiStaso giving Dean plenty of room to make his case in the Union Leader. LINK — the press is obviously right at this moment on the same, shall we say, wavelength with the Democratic Party on all aspects of the Iraq story.

There are so many mentions in various newspapers of Joe Lieberman's Washington Post op-ed piece from earlier this week criticizing the president's Iraq policy that we lost count. But there are a lot.

The White House will say this is because the press is anti-Bush, anti-conservative, and pro-Democratic; the Democrats will say it is because the press has finally decided after long last to stand up to George Bush and because they have the facts on their side; the press will say, well, that one is WAY too complicated to get into here.

As long as Democrats feel they are being rewarded (with media coverage and dropping Bush poll numbers on Iraq) for attacking, they will continue to attack.

As long as there are unanswered questions, the press will continue to press.

As long as things remain sketchy between the CIA and the White House, the chances that this thing breaks open remain greater than de minimus.

This morning a senior Administration official told ABC News' John Cochran in Africa that CIA Director Tenet had been sent the language for the State of the Union, although the White House can't swear it was read.

Until some Republican who is not named "McCain" begins to rattle the cage, this will indeed be a partisan face off. The unanimous Senate vote to encourage the administration to reach out to NATO and the UN for Iraq help is an interesting data point.

And it would interesting to see a parallel universe in which all this was happening with Democrats in control of at least one chamber of Congress, an independent counsel statute on the books, or both.

You can bet both sides are watching the public polling ever-so-closely, and maybe even doing some custom data work of their own.

The Boston Globe 's dynamic duo of Anne E. Kornblut and Amber Mobley have the most "political" story of the many out there. LINK

Here is the brilliant nut graph:

"While Republicans say they remain confident that Bush's focus on terrorism and stewardship of two wars will make him almost invulnerable against any challenger, Democrats who previously focused on the sagging economy are now escalating their broadsides on his foreign policy, such as his stragey for postwar Iraq, the spiraling costs of the occupation, his challenge to Iraqi insurgents to 'bring 'em on,' the failure to find Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein, and the alleged lack of funding for the Department of Homeland Security."

And check out the gauntlet throwing by a certain Raleigh resident: "'We operate on the assumption that security is not just about military strength anymore,' (Edwards' spokesgal Jennifer "Jennifer" Palmieri said. 'Given the situations President Bush has gotten us into in the world, the unstable situations his administration helped create, do Americans actually feel more secure with him as president? We don't know that they do. This isn't going to be a commander-in-chief election; it's going to be a security election.'''

The Washington Post 's E.J. Dionne paraphrases Patty Loveless, and says that the president has a trouble with the truth, that he is now vulnerable on both credibility and national security (Ah, the irony!), and that the Democrats aren't afraid of him anymore. LINK

"The president's free ride is over."

USA Today leads the paper with all this, and has some reporting on the CIA angle, with the ball very much having been lobbed today from Africa by Dr. Rice over to the Langley court: LINK

"Secretary of State Colin Powell defended the Bush administration Thursday against intensifying criticism of the use of bogus intelligence to help make the case for war on Iraq. But he was pressed to explain how the tainted evidence made it into President Bush's State of the Union address … ."

"Powell followed an emerging White House strategy of suggesting that the CIA, which was shown Iraq-related portions of Bush's draft speech, could have objected to the inclusion of the uranium charge. A CIA spokesman declined to comment."

The Washington Post 's Pincus leads thusly:

"The CIA tried unsuccessfully in early September 2002 to persuade the British government to drop from an official intelligence paper a reference to Iraqi attempts to buy uranium in Africa that President Bush included in his State of the Union address four months later, senior Bush administration officials said yesterday … " LINK

Because of a separate USA Today story, sweet Jill Lawrence must be morphed into Bart Simpson and sentenced to write on a Gannett blackboard 100 times "A piece of video is not a television ad if its creators have not paid to air it on TV." LINK

Note to the media: can't we all agree this cycle not to treat video press releases like actually ads? If a spot isn't airing at a high enough level to influence voters (or at all!!) then don't write about it as an "ad" and don't show it on TV news.

The Los Angeles Times Janet Hook (with Barabak and Brownstein assists) rounds up the Democratic attacks from the presidential campaign trail and from the Hill. LINK

The AP's Nedra Pickler (with Fournier and Lester assists) rounds up the Democratic attacks from the presidential campaign trail and the Hill. LINK

Editorial cartoonist Tom Toles weighs in as well. LINK

The Los Angeles Times' ed board speaks ominously of "double talk and doubts." LINK

And courtesy of our friends at National Journal, there's this from the Daily Show: "White House officials are telling me it strikes them as a little nitpicky. If it turns out that instead of Saddam Hussein trying to buy uranium for nuclear weapons, Saddam Hussein was not trying to buy uranium for nuclear weapons. I mean, that's a one word difference in a long, long sentence."

The New York Times Firestone and Shanker focus on the costs of post-war. LINK

The Washington Post 's Dana Milbank has the president shifting from "Bring 'em on" to "There's no question we've got a security issue in Iraq," LINK

"With Bush facing rising troop casualties, slow rebuilding, and sliding approval ratings at home, his options are few — and narrowing," reports Stan Crock in BusinessWeek Online. LINK

In today's California Recall round-up:

--A Republican pro-recall group splintered off from other pro-recall groups and filed a lawsuit yesterday against Secretary of State Shelley and three counties to make sure the signature verification process wasn't being deliberately slowed down.

--Expecting the recall to get on the ballot, Rescue California has a pro-recall television ad in the can that they are testing internally with focus groups.

--California Republicans might have a difficult time fulfilling GOP Chair Sundheim's vision of unifiying behind one candidate.

See our section below for full details.

Governor Dean, Ambassador Moseley Braun, Congressman Kucinich, and Reverend Sharpton will participate in the NOW presidential candidates forum today in Arlington, Virginia. Senator Kerry will send a videotaped message and Senator Edwards will send a representative.

Senator Graham has political meetings in New York City today.

Senator Lieberman is in Connecticut today having some fundraising meetings before the Sabbath begins. On Sunday he will be attending a fundraiser on Martha's Vineyard.

Senator Edwards will speak tonight at the Southwest Voter Registration Education Project Latino Vote 2003 Banquet. Edwards is campaigning in Iowa this weekend. He'll be drinking lotsa' coffee.

Congressman Gephardt will campaign in Iowa all weekend, including a turn at the "Hear it from the Heartland" forum with Senator Harkin in Dubuque on Sunday.

Governor Dean campaigns in Arizona on Saturday and then in Texas on Sunday.

Congressman Kucinich will also be in Iowa this weekend. He'll be attending "A Mid-Summer's Garden Party for Kucinich" with supporters in Iowa City on Sunday.

Ambassador Moseley Braun heads to the National Association of Counties Annual Conference and Exposition on Sunday in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

On Sunday, Senator Kerry makes remarks to the National Council of La Raza in Austin, Texas.

Politics of national security:

That Democratic National Committee ad they claim they plan to broadcast calls for a bipartisan, independent investigation of "Bush's false statement' about Niger.

Entitled "Read His Lips," we predict a short run on cable in Washington, D.C. as a way to get press and elite attention. The DNC says it'll decide what to do with their ad depending on how much interest it attracts.

The text: "In his State of the Union address, George W. Bush told us of an imminent threat … America took him at his word … .But now we find out that it wasn't true … Far worse, the administration knew it wasn't true … … A year earlier, that claim was already proven to be false … The CIA knew it. The State Department knew it. ] The White House knew it. But he told us anyway. It's time to tell the truth. Help hold George W. Bush accountable by calling for an independent, bipartisan investigation. Go to www.democrats.org/truth to sign the petition and make your voice heard. Because America deserves the truth."

Incoming RNC chair Ed Gillespie blasted back with his statement, and speaking of Mr. G., if you fall into Note withdrawal (again) in the next 48 hours, be sure to catch this weekend's edition of "Here's the Point," where Gillespie sits down with ABC News Political Director Mark Halperin.

Check your local ABC radio affiliate or that satellite radio thingamabob to hear about GOP strategy and how a young (Democratic) intern parking cars on the Hill rose to be the President's pick to lead the Republican Party.

ABC 2004: Bush-Cheney re-elect:

Nicolle Devenish, the spokesperson of the Bush-Cheney campaign, tells The Note that on Tuesday the 15th, Bush-Cheney will put up two categories of data on its web site: all the FEC-required stuff, plus more more more.

The campaign plans to post just under 20,000 donors who gave $200 or more, with close to 80% of those donors having complete information (occupation/address/etc.) listed, and the campaign is working all weekend trying to get higher compliance, which is admirable on at least two levels.

In addition, the campaign will put up all the donors who gave less than $200, and there will be about 80,000 of those (and, remember, that listing those donors is NOT required by the FEC), and the campaign will get to about 80% of those listed in that category with full information, which is extraordinary.

There will be no listing for Rangers and Pioneers yet, although some donors have amazingly hit Pioneer status already.

Now, are presidential campaigns exclusively the domain of white men?

The Wall Street Journal 's Jackie Calmes writes in Washington Wire that some female political pros are complaining about the lack of women in the upper echelons of the Dems' camps in light of the July 4 Kerry Summit. "'Women have a couple of folding chairs — they don't have real seats at the table,' said former Gore 2000 manager Donna Brazile."

But the, uhm, men running for office beg to differ. The Kerry campaign Notes that three key women in its campaign, "a senior strategist, policy director and scheduler — were at retreat." Lieberman employs women as chief of staff, media strategist and finance director, and women are the political, research and finance directors of Edwards' campaign, Calmes reports.

All well and good, but check out what Ms. Devenish Noted to The Note:

"No lack of female power and influence at the Bush campaign … communications director Nicolle Devenish, deputy to the campaign manager for operations, Kelley McCullough, Director of VP operations, Mary Cheney, Deputy to the chief strategist, Sara Taylor, and White House Liaison to the campaign Susan Ralston, all have permanent seats at the table (not folding chairs) for the daily senior staff meeting. Mary Matalin and Karen Hughes will also advise the campaign. Bush-Cheney '04 is 31 women strong and growing," and that is out of 65 employees overall. (You do the math to figure out how many are men.)

Regarding campaign manager Ken Mehlman, Devenish says: "he feels 'outnumbered' (but) he's very proud of the team that he has put together."

The Note has learned that there will be six new Bush-Cheney '04 fundraisers in August featuring none other than Vice President Dick "Just Bring It" Cheney. In the past, when the heat is on, the Vice President has marched down that aisle to lay the partisan smackdown on some Democratic jabronis.

On August 4th, Cheney will attend a lunch in Salt Lake City and a reception in Sun Valley Idaho. On August 6th, he'll do lunch in Sacramento and a reception in Billings, Montana. On August 12, it's a reception in Los Angeles. Finally, on August 13, there is a reception back in the home state in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

If you want to be the man, you have got to beat the man (and his running mate). Walk that aisle baby! Woooooooo!

If things break just right, Cheney just might get to reprise a roll he has played before at these events.

Remember back in May 2002, when the Vice President said, "Congressional Democrats should be 'very cautious' in criticizing the Bush administration's decision not to disclose intelligence that terrorists wanted to hijack U.S. airplanes." LINK

"[He] warned Democrats 'to not seek political advantage by making incendiary suggestions … that the White House had advance information that would have prevented the tragic attacks of 9-11.'"

"'Such commentary is thoroughly irresponsible and totally unworthy of national leaders in a time of war,' he said."

Stand by for, maybe, more of that kind of stuff from the Undisclosed Location (Except As Needed) Man.

So far as we're concerned, Bush's record in Texas is still fair game.

An audit of Houston schools has found that the miracle of its recent education performance there might be "smoke and mirrors," according to the New York Times , and that, in turn, may cast aspersions on the legacy of former Houston school superintendent Rod Paige, who's now U.S. Secretary of Education. LINK

"The city has also been a pillar of the so-called Texas miracle in education, whose emphasis on grading school performance became the model for the rest of the country under the federal No Child Left Behind Act."

More:

"The Houston system's supporters in the business community, some with close ties to the Bush administration, maintain that the city's dropout figures have long defied credibility but do not compromise the state's educational achievements."

"'The Texas miracle was not about high school performance, it was about elementary school performance,' said Donald R. McAdams, an 11-year member of the Houston school board and author of the 2000 book "Fighting to Save Our Urban Schools. . .and Winning! Lessons from Houston.'"

John Wagner and Rob Christensen ask the question in the Raleigh News & Observer: "Is Bush slipping?" According to a North Carolina poll, Bush has support from just over a majority of likely voters in the state. LINK

ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary:

BusinessWeek's Richard S. Dunham looks at the Invisible Primary through the prism of the three-legged stool of (1) organization, (2) fund-raising, and (3) buzz.

"In the quarter-century since Presidential fund-raising has been disclosed publicly, no candidate who didn't dominate at least one leg of the invisible primary has won the nomination. If that holds true for 2004, it's good news for … Howard Dean, … John F. Kerry, and … Richard A. Gephardt. … John Edwards is hanging on by a thread, as is … Joseph I. Lieberman … ."

BusinessWeek's William C. Symonds has a Q&A with Kerry supporter Michael Dukakis about why the son of the man who beat him in 1988 is vulnerable in 2004.

"Q: Do the Democrats have a realistic chance of unseating President Bush next year?"

"A: Bush … is beatable. Any of us who have been in this business know that favorability is meaningless. It is the reelect question-if the election were held tomorrow, would you vote for him?-[that is key]. You know where Bush was on that question just before we invaded Iraq? 44%. You know where his old man was on the [reelect] question in 1991, when he was at 91% on favorability? 47%. And 1991 is very instructive. In early July, 1991, … people were saying: 'Let's have a coronation.' And a lot of folks who should have thought about running against him bailed out, except for this guy in Arkansas who reads polls better than anybody else. [Bill Clinton] took a look at that 47% and said: 'I can take this guy.'"

"Q: Can the Democrats counter the campaign machine built by Bush and Karl Rove?"

"A: Nothing against Rove, but every political cycle we have some genius who is supposed to be sensational. Sometimes the strategy works once, but it may not work twice. Jim Baker was a fabulous campaign manager for George Bush against me [in '88]. But 1992 was a different time, and it just didn't work."

"But unlike his father, George Bush the son has moved far faster to address recession. Even if the numbers are looking a little better, Joe Citizen is not feeling it. In my view, this has to be the most ill-conceived set of policies to revive an economy in the history of the U.S … ."

Kerry:

The Bush administration doesn't have a strategy on post-war Iraq, and it's endangering the safety of the country — so said Senator John Kerry yesterday, the Washington Post 's Dan Balz reports. LINK

In an on-the-record editorial board lunch, Kerry said getting other countries to send troops to help rebuild Iraq is vital, and not doing so would have far-reaching ramifications, from destabilizing the Middle East peace process to hurting the war on terrorism — both by lowering U.S. credibility and giving confidence to terrorist organizations.

"'Failure will shut the door on many of the things we need to do and I think make the world a much more dangerous world,' Kerry said."

The Senator accused the Bush Administration of being untruthful in explaining to the American people what's going on in Iraq, as well as the implications.

"'I don't think when you go to an aircraft carrier in a highly staged appearance and announce that the hostilities are over when they're not over, you're telling the truth,'" Kerry said.

In the midst of remarks comments about the economy (Bush's record on jobs is the worst "since Herbert Hoover"), gay marriage (against it), dependence on foreign oil (it's bad), corporate responsibility (expense those stock options), Kerry "brushed aside" a question about the fundraising prowess of former Vermont governor Howard Dean and Noted "his campaign has more money in the bank than either Al Gore or Bill Bradley did four years ago at this time."

The whole money thing — clearly a sore spot. Kerry also slammed the Bush-Cheney fundraising juggernaut. "'I think President Bush has basically been running around the country collecting his rebate for the tax cut he gave people and I think it's polluting American politics to the worst degree,' he said."

The Boston Herald's Noelle Straub heard Senator Kerry charge "the president with a litany of mistakes in Iraq, including putting too few troops in the field, failing to garner more international support and having no plan for the war's aftermath." LINK

Has John Lennon posthumously endorsed John Kerry's bid for the White House?

The New York Post 's intrepid Deborah Orin gets giddy over a photo of the former Beatle and a young Kerry displayed on fliers being distributed in New York by the Kerry campaign "to woo anti-war presidential voters as he competes with rival Howard Dean in blasting President Bush on Iraq." LINK

Yoko Ono was sadly unreachable for comment, and Orin resists the Forrest Gump reference.

The AP's Will Lester reports that Senator Kerry "criticized President Bush on Thursday for offering slogans and rhetoric about improving education but failing to provide enough money to upgrade the nation's schools." LINK

ABC News also heard Kerry at the American Federation of Teachers conference. It was a receptive audience for the Bay State's junior senator, and though the AFT has not made an endorsement and has invited the other presidential hopefuls to address the group at future meetings, we wondered how many other candidates will receive multiple standing ovations, with or without a sizable home-state crew sitting in the center of the audience.

Also, here's a Note fashion alert: was that a Vineyard Vines tie that Senator Kerry was wearing yesterday? It's rumored that those ties are a favorite of a certain former president who happens to be the father of another president (not John Adams). www.vineyardvines.com

Edwards:

The New York Times ' Sheryl Gay Stolberg has a smart look at how Senator Bill Frist and Senator John Edwards are easy surrogates for just about every major strand of the medical malpractice insurance debate: doctors versus lawyers; Republicans versus Democrats; horror stories versus horror stories; the White House versus Edwards; and more. LINK

Complete with front-page twin photos!

"Dr. Frist, a heart-lung transplant surgeon who relishes his role as the Senate's only physician, has deftly used his new job as Republican leader to press Mr. Bush's case that frivolous lawsuits are driving up malpractice premiums, putting doctors out of business and patients at risk. The quashing of the bill Wednesday by Democrats was expected, but now Republicans plan to take their argument on the road, especially in states like Pennsylvania, Nevada, Florida and West Virginia, where the malpractice crisis is acute."

"Senator Edwards … .is precisely the kind of man Mr. Bush and Dr. Frist rail against: a plaintiff's lawyer who has made millions representing victims of malpractice. Following Wednesday's Senate vote, Republicans in his home state, North Carolina, are already attacking him as a 'lackey for trial lawyers' — a message Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster, calls 'the political subtext' of the malpractice debate."

"Some say the face-off is really between Mr. Edwards — as a surrogate for the Democratic presidential field — and President Bush, with Dr. Frist, himself a potential presidential candidate in 2008, serving as a stand-in for the president. When Mr. Bush first announced his initiative to change malpractice law, he did so in High Point, N.C., squarely on Mr. Edwards's home turf. The senator's aides still derisively refer to the president's event as 'Whack John Edwards Day.'"

[Note Note: that's what an unnamed presidential aide called it, according to the AP.]

In a conference call with Iowa reporters yesterday, Senator Edwards pitched a new plan to cut down on pollution from big hog firms and farms. LINK

Knight Ridder's Mark Johnson writes: "Now voters and Democratic activists in New Hampshire are waiting for Edwards to live up to the potential they expected [ … ] But after months when he concentrated on raising money, he is only just beginning to campaign hard here and in Iowa, where Democrats begin voting for their presidential favorites next January." LINK

Johnson Notes: "Edwards' campaign doesn't see New Hampshire as the win-or-die test of elections past. At least five states — Arizona, Missouri, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Edwards' birthplace, South Carolina — will vote one week later. Two other Southern states, Virginia and Tennessee, hold primaries the following week, and Edwards might enjoy a regional advantage there."

The Associated Press reports that Senator Edwards "on Thursday pushed for legislation that would cut air and water pollution from giant livestock operations." LINK

Senator Edwards' Senate Judiciary Committee vote for Court of Appeals nominee Allyson Duncan was tallied yesterday, even though the presidential candidate missed the Roll Call , according to Tim Funk of the Charlotte Observer. LINK

John Wagner writes for the Raleigh News & Observer that without a Jarding or a Mudcat on the payroll, Senator Edwards will not, in fact, be sponsoring racecars. LINK

Gephardt:

Iowa AP political writer Mike Glover takes a step back from the daily grind to look at Congressman Gephardt's positioning.

"Democrat Dick Gephardt, seeing his advantage in Iowa shrinking, is making a concerted effort to sharpen the differences with his presidential rivals on the party's core issues of health care, trade and labor," Glover writes. LINK

"Gephardt, in the midst of a five-day, 19-stop campaign swing through Iowa this week, is trying to persuade voters to trust him, a 27-year veteran of the House, not his rivals, and he's making the political calculation that going on the offensive on the issues will boost his candidacy."

"'In any election it is necessary and valid for candidates to engage in debate or discussion about the differences in their positions,' Gephardt said in an interview Thursday with The Associated Press. 'That is beginning.'"

Glover gets a head-up about a change of theme:

"In the coming days, Gephardt plans to focus on trade — the Democrat has been a staunch opponent of the North American Free Trade Agreement and fast-track procedures for trade pacts — and labor issues. Gephardt sees a strong stand on these issue as boosting his standing not only with Democratic voters but possibly in the general election if he wins the nomination."

Glover reported in a separate story yesterday that Gephardt found receptive audiences to his proposals, particularly when meeting with Iowans at one of The Note's favorite establishments, Dairy Queen, and argued that his universal health care plan is the only one that has a chance to become a reality. LINK

Glover Notes: "His $240 billion plan is far more aggressive than health proposals offered by rivals such as former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean and Massachusetts Senator John Kerry. It is also far more expensive."

FYI — It appears Gephardtpalooza in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has concluded. It was an awesome time. Deirdre and Bill, The Note thanks you.

Dean:

Ben Fischer editorializes unhappily for the Cincinnati Enquirer on the media coverage surrounding Howard Dean, claiming the reports "look a lot like presidential political reporting in 2000, when strategy and 'horse-race' competition of politics dominated the news while actual issues were on the back burner." LINK

The AP's Nedra Pickler writes about Governor Dean's appeal to some (gasp!) moderate Democrats. LINK

"Many of the more conservative members of the [New Democrat Coalition in Congress] say they don't know much about Dean yet. Rep. Gene Taylor of Mississippi said he is so ignorant of Dean's record that "I would be perfect to serve on a Howard Dean jury."

The Union Leader's DiStaso was impressed that Governor Dean didn't pander to his audience at a Derry house call yesterday. LINK

National Journal's James Barnes gets Dean pollster Paul Maslin, Democratic strategist Harold Ickes, and SEIU's Gina Glantz to go on the record about Howard Dean's insurgency. Key excerpts:

"Not surprisingly, the Carter model is the most attractive to the Dean camp. The race for the 1976 Democratic nomination featured no overwhelming establishment choice comparable to Mondale for the Democrats in 1984 or Bush for the Republicans in 2000. 'Jimmy Carter had a field like this one,' noted Dean pollster Paul Maslin. 'He went out and took it.'"

"Indeed, Dean's prospects for capturing the nomination may be bolstered by the fact that the party's powerhouses haven't rallied around anyone yet. 'I think the establishment really is split all over hell's half-acre,' Ickes said. 'Among the interest groups, there is an overwhelming desire to beat Bush, but they're not prepared to put a lot of treasure on the nominating process at this point. Among the [party's] leading figures, some of them think it's hopeless [to try to defeat Bush]. It's still very early, but they look at [Bush's] fundraising capability and they think it's a very tough row to hoe.'"

"What will likely give Dean staying power, Maslin asserted, is that his is not a typical insurgency."

"'It's fueled because he's not from Washington, but there is a different thing at work,' Maslin said. 'The reference point of this race is someone who gives Democrats a voice to lead a resurgence. Democrats-in a way that the D.C. establishment and the other candidates failed to understand-were looking for someone to stand up to Bush.'"

"(Gina) Glantz, who now advises Service Employees International Union President Andrew L. Stern on political matters, said that while Kerry's status as a decorated Vietnam combat veteran and Gephardt's comprehensive health care plan have given their candidacies a strong focal point, 'I think Dean is kind of building himself into a credible third candidate that makes it harder for the others to figure out how to position themselves.'"

"It's still early, and one of his opponents will eventually emerge as the establishment choice. But for the moment, Dean is the driving force in the Democratic contest."

New Jerseyans never had a say in national politics — until MoveOn, apparently. LINK

Deborah Orin doesn't see Howard Dean as the next George McGovern. She sees him as the next Michael Dukakis. LINK

Graham:

Graham blasted the Bush Administration on war costs: From a statement: "Leading the American people into war without revealing the true cost of the operation until the eve of the fighting was an abdication of President Bush's responsibility. Now, the Bush team tells us previous cost estimates were less than half of the actual figure. This deception unfortunately fits a pattern of secrecy and manipulation that has become common place in the Bush White House."

PoliticsNH.com's Pindell reports: "Asked on CNN's Inside Politics if the president should be held accountable for uttering words that weren't correct in his own State of the Union address, Florida Senator Bob Graham said, 'Well, I believe in the old admonition if you're the captain of the ship and the ship goes aground, you're responsible.'" LINK

""The administration, President Bush appointed all of the key people who are running our intelligence agencies. He appointed the people in the Department of Defense and the Department of State which reviewed the information. And in spite of all that, in his State of the State Union — message, he had a statement that was clearly untrue. And that is that Niger had supplied nuclear materials to Iraq,' Graham said."

The Associated Press reports that Senator Graham "has bluegrass legend Ralph Stanley singing his praises." That crazy Mudcat, or is it Bobcat? LINK

The New York Sun's Timothy Stark's takes a look at Senator Graham's three day New York tour and writes that the presidential hopeful is slowly starting to build a New York profile by hanging out with the likes of superstar public relations guru Ken Sunshine and former City Councilwoman Ronnie Eldridge. Apparently the Eldridge/Breslin household is completely on board with team Graham. LINK

Lieberman:

In a "scathing five-page" letter, Senator Lieberman "asked the Homeland Security Department on Thursday to reopen an internal inquiry into its role in the Texas redistricting fight, saying a report issued last month left too many questions unanswered and let state police off the hook too readily," reports Todd J. Gillman of The Dallas Morning News. LINK

"(Lieberman) said … that concluding that only 'minimal' resources were diverted to aiding Texas authorities misses the point."

"'The core issue here is not how much time … [was] spent on this matter,' Mr. Lieberman wrote, 'but whether it was appropriate for federal officials to use their access to information, their ability to activate local officials, and the weight of federal resources to try to track down a private plane that was not alleged to be involved in any criminal activity nor was in any distress.'"

Greens:

From a Green Party press release about their national strategy meeting, which begins July 18: "Prospective and declared presidential candidates David Cobb, Carol Miller, and Lorna Salzman (Green activists from Texas, New Mexico, and New

York, respectively) have confirmed their participation in a Saturday evening, July 19 press conference and reception. Cynthia McKinney has not responded yet; Ralph Nader and New York Green activist Paul Glover will send statements."

Sharpton:

Reverend Sharpton plans to announce a "fact-finding" trip to Liberia this weekend.

Nader:

Another "later this year" brush-off to questions about his 2004 presidential ambitions. LINK

New Hampshire:

In Concord, the Boston Globe 's Scot Lehigh contemplates Kerry v. Dean, Jordan v. Trippi, how Granite State voters take in the scuffles, and concludes that "Kerry appears every bit the battle-tested veteran he is: cool-headed, not prone to panic, and with his eyes firmly fixed on the ultimate prize." LINK

Iowa:

Plenty of fallout — both sublime and ridiculous — from Governor Vilsack's admission that he lacks basic Internet skills. LINK

--Borsellino: LINK

--the DMR ed board: LINK

The economy:

New York Times 'er Dan Altman (who, one ought to know, got his economics Ph.D. from somewhere in Cambridge, Mass.) bemoans the plight of economists who are pressured to wrangle predictions out of uncooperative, occasionally politicized data. LINK

California recall:

A breakout group of Republicans has filed the first lawsuit of the recall saga, pushing for counties' election officials to verify signatures will all due haste. However, according to the Los Angeles Times' Michael Finnegan and Allison, it's a very small faction of recall organizers who are taking action against the Secretary of State and the counties they feel are slowing down the process — and they're bucking the wishes of the more prominent pro recall groups. LINK

On a conference call with reporters yesterday Rescue California Director Dave Gilliard said, "We are pretty satisfied with how the counties are counting at this point. Nothing has been indicated to me that Secretary of State Shelley is not doing his job."

Also, Mr. Gilliard announced that Rescue California will be leading the campaign to recall Gray Davis with a $15 million budget. He said his organization would have nothing to do with any of the potential replacement candidates. Rescue California will solely be focusing on the first question (yes or no on the recall) on the ballot.

He also said that they have produced their first television ad in support of the recall. They are testing it internally with focus groups right now, he said.

The New York Times editorial board doesn't deny that Californians have a right be angry about the fiscal shape of their state, but the Times ' rejects the recall as the remedy. LINK

John Wildermuth of the San Francisco Chronicle writes that GOP Chairman Duf Sundheim's vision of a unified Republican Party behind a single candidate may be tougher to realize than he expects. LINK

"We're more than happy if (Republican leaders) want to limit the field, as long as they understand they're not going to limit Darrell Issa's ability to run for governor," said Scott Taylor, a spokesman for the San Diego-area congressman, the only announced Republican candidate."

And this from '02 GOP Candidate Simon:

"'I don't think that's a great idea,' said Bill Simon, who lost to Davis in November and is looking at jumping into the replacement race."

"'This recall is a grassroots movement,' he said. 'We want to avoid the appearance of the old smoke-filled backroom, where deals are cut.'"

The Sacramento Bee's Laura Mecoy writes up yesterday's press conference with Latino elected officials and community leaders denouncing the recall effort. She makes sure to include the Issa campaign calling press conference participant Henry Cisneros a "criminal." LINK

Ms. Mecoy also reports Senator Edwards and Governor Davis will share a stage this evening at a fundraiser in Los Angeles for an organization geared at registering new latino voters around the country.

Gray Davis political advisers David Doak and Paul Maslin see this recall race as an easier contest to win than his two previous runs for governor.LINK

Politics:

Happy birthday, Josh "Water, Water Everywhere" Wachs.

E.J. Dionne has a time-capsule-worthy correction tacked to end of his column about the stylish Debra DeShong and her cell phone. LINK

The idea of non-partisan municipal elections in New York City is bumping up against the established interest of New York's powerful Democratic Party. LINK

The Florida med mal debate gets more interesting by the day: "In a move that would pit Republicans against each other in next year's elections, an aide to Gov. Jeb Bush has suggested unseating two GOP senators and aggressively coaxing others who oppose the governor's push for caps in medical malpractice cases," the Miami Herald reports." LINK

Bush later backed away from the suggestion.

Jerry! Jerry! Jerry … … LINK

Might Jerry Springer incorporate Ginsu knives into his campaign? The talk-show host and would-be Senator from Ohio will launch a 30-minute infomercial to bolster his bid, according to the Cincinnati Enquirer's Spencer Hunt. LINK

"For $25, supporters get a T-shirt featuring the logo 'Run Jerry Run' in red — or blue 'to match your eyes.'"

"For $100, the shock-TV ringmaster and former Cincinnati mayor is offering a T-shirt and a photo of himself standing next to the Hicksville, Ohio, city limits sign."

"But that's not all."

"'I know I'm going to get fired for this, but I'm going to throw in the ($15) bumper sticker!' says infomercial co-host and pitchman Jene Galvin, a Cincinnati public radio talker who appears with his brother and fellow radio personality Jerry Galvin."

Michael Finnegan of the Los Angeles Times takes a momentary break from the recall to write up former US Treasurer Rosario Marin's possible Senate bid against Barbara Boxer. LINK

Unlock the Cooper-Grunwald worldview. LINK

Legislative agenda:

The American Federation of Teachers intends to ratchet down its complaints about the Bush Administration's No Child Left Behind Act, the Washington Times George Archibald reports. LINK

At the union's meeting yesterday, AFT President Sandra Feldman, said that by focusing on the potential difficulties of the law, teachers are hurting themselves, students and the union, Archibald wrote. Coincidentally, rival union National Education Association vehemently opposes the plan.

Changes to federal rules on overtime pay, loathed mightily by labor, took a step closer to reality yesterday. LINK

House Republicans squeaked through a measure yesterday to let the Labor Department rewrite the rules, the Washington Post 's Juliet Eilperin reports. LINK

BCRA/Campaign Finance:

Shays, Meehan, McCain and Feingold want to the replace the "C" in FEC with an "A" — hard-charging Administration versus consensus-seeking Commission. LINK

The Times ed board loves the idea of replacing the FEC with something else. LINK

The Florida Recount: it just won't go away. The Washington Post 's dashing Thomas B. Edsall reports that the Florida Election Commission is mulling a hefty fine against the "Committee to Take Back Our Judiciary," a political group that in December 2000 sent a letter to 350,000 Floridians "attacking three pro-Democratic state Supreme Court justices who threatened George W. Bush's hopes for victory." LINK

The group, which spent $150,000 on the effort, was really a front for GOP political consultant Roger Stone, and its chairwoman, Palm Beach County commissioner Mary McCarty, now faces a possible $450,000 fine, Edsall reports. At issue, the Florida Elections Commission says, is that McCarty accepted contributions exceeding the $500 state limit and didn't properly disclose it.

Said McCarty to the AP: "'I didn't do any of this except sign my name. . . . This was basically some sort of a scam that was set up that I was used in. I was duped.'"

Bush Administration strategy/personality:

The New York Post 's Deborah Orin writes up President Bush's introduction to an elephant named Shaka which may prove to be the video highlight of Mr. Bush's African tour. LINK

"Bush, wife Laura and daughter Barbara had just arrived on the scene when Shaka, a 13-year-old male, decided to mount 13-year-old Thandi in what one game warden called 'a reproductive attempt.'"

"Reporters at Botswana's Mokolodi Nature Preserve convulsed into giggles as the president smiled sheepishly and threw his cap over his face to block the sight of the antics of the giant beasts that symbolize his Republican Party."

"Barbara threw her head back in embarrassment and covered her face with her hands to hide from the sight of the elephants mating, which apparently did not come to full fruition and broke up after a minute."

The Washington Post 's Dana Milbank adds:

"It was the second time in as many days that Bush encountered an R-rated scene on his journey. Wednesday night, before dinner at the American ambassador's residence in Pretoria, Bush blushed and donned an awkward grin when a troupe of female singers in traditional dress began to tug at the cloth covering their breasts," Milbank writes. LINK

Points go to Secretary of State Colin Powell, however, for the hardest-to-keep-a-straight-face for comment: "'The elephants were on message,' Powell replied. 'We were all on message.'"

BusinessWeek's Rich Miller and Emily Thornton handicap John Snow's new team at Treasury.

"Seven months after he was named Treasury Secretary, John W. Snow is finally putting his team in place. On July 9, he moved to fill two key vacancies. Snow tapped Susan C. Schwab of the University of Maryland to be his deputy and Goldman Sachs & Co. investment banker Kenneth H.M. Leet to be Under Secretary for Domestic Finance, Treasury's key liaison to the financial markets. Both officials, who must still be confirmed, get strong early reviews. But it's not clear whether Treasury's new team will have the financial-crisis skills of departing policymaker Peter R. Fisher."

Kennedy/Cuomo:

Page Six has all the scoop on Bruce Colley's ex flame who tried desperately to keep his name out of the papers last week. LINK

Joe Mahoney and Maggie Haberman report in the New York Daily News that Kerry Kennedy Cuomo and Bruce Colley have decided not to speak until things quiet down a bit. LINK

More Kennedy scandal … . Rush and Molloy report Caroline Kennedy has been booted from the Colony Club. LINK

Media:

Well, who else would they play? The Washington Post 's Lisa de Moraes reports that political consultants James Carville and Mary Matalin will play themselves on the new HBO series "'K Street,' a weekly half-hour in which actors playing lobbyists will attempt to curry favor with actual politicians who have agreed to play along." LINK

According to the explanation offered to TV critics in Hollywood this week, on Monday the writers will build the show around "that week's politically charged topic," shoot and edit, and the episode will air Sunday night.

USA Today 's Robert Bianco and Bill Keveney report that George Clooney will executive produce and direct the improvised show. LINK

Page Six spied competitor Joanna Molloy on what might have been a job interview. LINK