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the note
Presidential Precedents
A Bush in the Hand Is Worth...

By Mark Halperin, Lisa Todorovich, Marc Ambinder, David Chalian, Karen Travers, Anne Chiappetta, Mary Hood, Nick Schifrin, Alexandra Avnet, and Jan Simmonds with J. Greenberger and B. Rasmussen
ABCNEWS.com

NEWS SUMMARY

We don't obsessively study past election data as much as, say, Karl Rove or Mark Gersh do, but we agree with Lord Byron: "History, with all her volumes vast, Hath but one page."

Finding the right presidential contests past to use as models to anticipate what will happen in November, 2004 is not effortless, but it remains ever tempting to look at 1992, when a president named "Bush," who had won a war against Iraq blah blah blah blah.

Of course, Bill Clinton's eventual romping victory looked anything but certain in June of 1992, even though the incumbent had poll numbers substantially weaker than the current President Bush.

So with a new grim 43rd Street/57th Street poll slotted on a Gray (Lady) front page; the handover going swimmingly after a full 24 hours; and both parties flaunting their convention wares today — let's take stock of the Bush versus Bush and Kerry versus Clinton comparisons.

Both these lists are based on today — what's happening now. One of the great things about American politics as a spectator sport is that things can and do change in less time than it takes to say "Geez — Spider-man is sold out; let's go see that Michael Moore movie instead."

ADVANTAGES 43 HAS OVER 41:

1. Despite droopy poll numbers, the congressional wing of the party is not in a panic.

2. Instead of a faded Cold War, the trump card of the war against terror is always ready to be played.

3. No Perot, but a Nader.

4. Signs of economic recovery have begun earlier.

5. No late start on political engagement.

6. The press sees the controversial convention speakers on the Democratic side (Clinton and Kennedy instead of Buchanan).

7. Will not look at — or even wear — a watch at the debates.

8. Kerry is not the politician of a generation like Clinton was.

9. Crawford style more accessible than brisk Atlantic patrician one.

10. Republican base not in revolt.

THE JURY IS OUT ON KERRY VERSUS CLINTON ON:

1. Will Kerry be able to break through with man-bites-dog support from business and military leaders with the symbolic resonance that worked for Clinton? (See today's Wall Street Journal for a good Jackie Calmes piece on the business angle.)

2. Will Kerry be able to effectively use his convention to begin to establish a biographical narrative arc and an emotional bond with the American people? ("I still believe in a place called Denver … .")

3. Will the dominant media begin to implicitly root for Kerry the way they did for Clinton?

4. Will the September and October Surprises help or hurt Kerry? (It's easy to forget how many there were that helped Clinton at the end.)

5. Will the desire for "change" trump the desire for stability?

6. Will Kerry's running mate choice produce Clinton-Gore-like synergy?

7. Will Kerry be able to outflank Bush on the right on any issues?

8. Will Kerry be able to develop an effective message on domestic issues and a stump speech that consistently connects with middle class voters?

9. Will Kerry find a theme song as inexplicably infectious as that optimistic Fleetwood Mac anthem?

10. Will Kerry win Ohio?

And we refuse to even engage on Cheney versus Quayle comparisons.

Speaking of the veep, we wonder if he will make one of those cutesy politicians bets with Pat Leahy on tonight's Yankees-Red Sox game in the Bronx, which Mr. Cheney plans to attend after hitting a midday fundraiser for the RNC in Manhattan. May we suggest a dozen of Gray's Papaya's finest up against some Vermont apples?

President Bush is in Turkey for the final day of the NATO summit. His 7:10 am speech is his final event, and he returns to the White House this evening. Senator Kerry addresses the annual Rainbow/PUSH conference in Chicago at 10:00 am ET and the (still-appreciating-Vilsack) National Council of La Raza in Phoenix at 5:30 pm ET. Teresa Heinz Kerry is in Iowa today speaking about health care.

At 10:00 am, the Supreme Court is expected to hand down a decision on whether the Child Online Protection Act violates the First Amendment.

Elsewhere, Ed Gillespie continues the RNC Catholic Outreach Tour with two events in Oregon, and Rep. Pat Toomey continues his weeklong tour touting "sanctity of marriage, respect for life, and traditional values" in Allentown, Pa.

The Democratic National Convention Committee hosts its final walkthrough today in Boston and the Federal Reserve begins its two-day meeting today in New York. The Fed is expected to release rate changes tomorrow.

The politics of the new Iraq:

The Washington Post 's Mike Allen reports: "President Bush celebrated the transfer of political authority in Iraq on Monday as the fulfillment of his promises to a broken country, but warned that violence and the U.S. military presence in the country are unlikely to end soon." LINK

The New York Times ' David Sanger writes in a must-read piece that the transfer of power in Iraq is President Bush's "last, best hope of turning the page, of refocusing America and the world on the possibilities of remaking a broken nation, and of moving beyond the gruesome images of a star-crossed occupation." LINK

The Washington Post 's ed board thinks "the Bush administration is a couple of small steps closer to its goal of stabilizing Iraq under a representative government with multilateral support." LINK

The Washington Post 's David Ignatius writes "the all-but-invisible ceremony couldn't disguise the fact that Iraq has confounded the grand strategy of transformation that led the Bush administration to invade the country 15 months ago." LINK

And Time's Matthew Cooper Notes: " … no one will be in any doubt that Iraq is George W. Bush's fight as much as Allawi's. Maybe even more so."

The Washington Post 's Dan Balz reports Senator Kerry "said Monday that Iraq faces huge challenges as its new government takes power, beginning with the lack of security, and he called on President Bush to work harder to win more financial and military support to relieve the burden on U.S. forces and taxpayers." LINK

"Iraq will have all the formal powers of a sovereign state: the ability to appoint and dismiss ministers; to allocate budgets; to conduct negotiations with foreign countries. But it is not clear what will happen if the Americans disagree with Iraqi decisions," observes the New York Times ' Steven Weisman. LINK

The Washington Post 's still-so-talented Robin Wright has a take comparable to Weisman's, with an emphasis on the State-takes-over-from-DOD angle that will make neo-cons of all stripes (but without striped pants) cringe. LINK

Paul Krugman strikes out at the economic terms and alleged croynism of the occupation and reconstruction. LINK

SCOTUS speaks:

The New York Times ' prolific Linda Greenhouse wraps the Supreme Court ruling regarding rights of detainees and Miranda rights. LINK and LINK

The New York Times ' Todd Purdum Notes that the SCOTUS decision was "a powerful reminder that in the United States, even in wartime, no prisoner is ever beneath the law's regard and no president above its limits." LINK

The Washington Post 's ed board suggests "it isn't clear what, in practice, the (Supreme Court's) decision will mean. If the result is to spur the administration to improve review and inject a measure of outside oversight, it could prove constructive. But there are dangers as well." LINK

The Wall Street Journal 's ed board calls the Supreme Court ruling on terror suspects "a modest but important victory for the Presidency." link

Or not:

The Washington Post 's David von Drehle says the ruling represents "a nearly unanimous repudiation of the Bush administration's sweeping claims to power over those captives." LINK

ABC News Vote 2004: Bush v. Kerry:

The Wall Street Journal 's Jackie Calmes Notes "though George W. Bush has been a decidedly pro-business president, a few cracks are surfacing in what had been a solid wall of business support." LINK

Senator Kerry has tailored his business appeal to executives, but "A former top Republican Party official says many Republicans in the business sector are particularly concerned that the administration's conduct of the war on terrorism is making a bad situation worse. But, he adds, Mr. Kerry hasn't offered an alternative strategy to make things better."

"Given Republicans' historic ties to business, and Democrats' to organized labor, Democrats don't expect to get much business support in presidential races. Getting corporate America's closet critics to go public against an incumbent president is an uphill struggle anyway."

"Party leaders say their best hope is for business to be something of a sleeping bear — not frightened of the Democrat and not so excited about the Republican that it awakens and campaigns aggressively."

Columnist Kathleen Parker expresses her surprise over how "curiously quiet"Americans have been regarding the Senate's upcoming vote on a gay marriage amendment, considering that a majority opposes gay marriage. LINK

ABC News Vote 2004: Bush-Cheney re-elect:

The New York Times ' Adam Nagourney and Janet Elder have the latest New York Times /CBS News poll, conducted before the handover in Iraq yesterday, which finds President Bush's approval rating at 42 percent, the lowest point of his presidency.

"The poll found Americans stiffening their opposition to the Iraq war, worried that the invasion could invite domestic terrorist attacks and skeptical about whether the White House has been fully truthful about the war or about abuses at the Abu Ghraib prison." LINK

Some positives for those over at the BC04 office: "Americans were more likely to believe that Mr. Bush would do a better job than Mr. Kerry would in steering the nation through a foreign crisis, and protecting it from future terrorist attacks."

But, the duo Note: "Even so, the poll was scattered with warning flags for Mr. Bush, and there was compelling evidence that his decision to take the nation to war against Iraq has left him in a precarious political position."

It's sort of amazing how many people still lack a view of Kerry, but, the Times people remind us, that even after the draft and Gennifer Flowers, lots of people in '92 claimed not to have a view of Bill Clinton at this point in the cycle either.

The Boston Globe 's Peter Canellos lays out a pretty strong first paragraph in an analysis of Vice President Cheney:

"Dick Cheney occupies an unprecedented position in American history. There has never been such a powerful vice president. There has never been anyone other than a president as powerful as Cheney." LINK

But, Canellos writes, "[i]n recent weeks, however, the astonishing range of Cheney's influence has been on display in virtually every controversy involving the administration."

Canellos Notes how Cheney has combined the roles of chief of staff, first lady and powerful adviser to invent his own unique position in the administration and makes this interesting comparison: "As a result, Cheney looms larger than Hillary Rodham Clinton in the '90s, with about a tenth as much scrutiny, even during a campaign."

Cheney heads to New York City today to catch a ballgame, dropping in on Yankee Stadium to see the Bombers take on the Red Sox, and help the Republican Party raise money at a Victory 2004 event.

The Washington Post 's Dana Milbank highlights White House memos, and the "administration ritual: disavowing the conclusions of official documents." LINK

The Washington Post 's EJ Dionne Notes Rep. Jay Inslee believes the "political tidal wave" is moving against Bush, a la 1994. LINK

Don Evans, Governor of Texas? Challenging Rick Perry? LINK

"The EPA will today end its public comment period on its plan to limit mercury pollution from power plants, one of the Bush administration's most controversial regulatory initiatives," reports the Washington Post 's Juliet Eilperin. LINK

"I spent last week traveling around Ireland, drinking thick beer, eating bland sausage and speaking with ordinary Irish," writes the Wall Street Journal 's Alan Murray. He was on vacation, trying to avoid politics, but it always intruded: "In the friendly glow of post-match encounters, it was only a matter of time before some Irish soccer dad or mom asked in brogue: 'So what do you think of your president?' I came to understand the question as their effort to solve a riddle: How could a people they like so much have elected a leader they dislike so much?"

ABC News Vote 2004: Senator John Kerry:

Haven't we read this article before?

The Washington Post 's Darryl Fears Notes "a month before Senator John F. Kerry is to accept the Democratic presidential nomination, African Americans who are experienced in getting out the vote say the candidate has done little to energize a constituency that could help ensure his election." LINK

The article contends that Kerry hasn't addressed the "concerns," the "issues," the "campaign message" that African Americans "want to hear about."

Ok: why aren't health care, the economy, and foreign policy African American issues?

And what exactly does "reaching out" to African Americans mean in this context?

And who says that African American voters aren't energized to defeat President Bush?

We don't dispute the premise that Kerry might arguably have trouble connecting to black voters, but the junior Senator from Massachusetts hasn't necessarily connected with too many non-black voters either yet.

The Democrats planning their convention in Boston can let out a sigh of relief. The Boston Globe reports that Senator Kerry and Senator Kennedy's moves to not cross the Boston Police Patrolmen's Association picket lines at the U.S. Conference of Mayors this week won the union over enough that they agreed not to picket the convention. LINK

And Kerry knew they would. "'The senator . . . kept his eye on the big prize, the convention, in order to achieve a trade-off with the unions,' said a Kerry campaign official, who spoke on condition of anonymity."

The Boston Globe 's Healy highlights Senator Kerry's news conference yesterday and Kerry's blaming President Bush for a more "volatile" world. LINK

The New York Times ' David Halbfinger reports that Senator Kerry continued yesterday to urge the president to call for more international help for ensuring Iraq's stability and security. LINK

The New York Times ' Pam Belluck reports that Gov. Romney really enjoyed filling in for Senator Kerry at the mayors' meeting yesterday. LINK

Not as sexy as GQ, but the Washington Post 's (sexy himself) John Harris profiles the ever-profilable Jason Miner.LINK

Fahrenheit 9/11:

What's next for Michael Moore's Bush bashing box-office-record bumping "Fahrenheit 9/11?"

More screens, more reviews, more denunciations, more questionable facts questioned, more films decried by Moore as part of the conservative agenda, a possible $100 million box office total, a group of 9/11 families coming out in support on Wednesday …

Our spidey sense tells us that this may change tomorrow, but then again, what do we know?

Variety's Gabriel Snyder provides a good look at the expansion of screens: "Theaters will be added on Wednesday and Friday, and another wave will be added on July 9." And Snyder quotes Lions Gate President Tom Ortenberg saying that "There are theaters that we are turning down this week that we want to hold for later."

Tomorrow, expect that group of 9/11 family members and Iraqi veterans to hold a New York event in support of the film.

Meanwhile, reviewers can't stop writing about it (at least until tomorrow). Philadelphia Inquirer's Steven Rea Notes that the movie moved ahead of its conservative sister The Passion of the Christ in per-screen average to second all-time, behind only Shrek 2. LINK

Moore supporters clam that the movie's buzz and attendance is being generated in large part by the free media coverage leading to the kind of "water cooler" moment backers were hoping for. And there is still heavey web traffic to the film's site.

The Moore/MoveOn link continued last night in a a conference call/web chat with Moore with what organizers claimed was 30,000 supporters. Moore roused his silent audience with entireties to get out the vote, pleas not to vote (again) for Ralph Nader, and suggestions to Senator Kerry and his campaign, including this one: "The election is Kerry's to lose. I've never spoken to the man, I've never spoken to anybody in his campaign … But do not spend the next four months moving to the right … The hawks have a candidate." (Later in the call Moore did admit to speaking to Alexandra Kerry, who has of course worked with the campaign … )

From Tampa to Norfolk to the Inland Empire, wraps of Moore and his MoveOn supporters: LINK, LINK, and LINK

Meanwhile, Lions Gate is worth more than ever. LINK

The Boston Globe 's Renee Graham thinks that at the very least, Moore's film has taken at least some focus away from whether Britney Spears is getting married. LINK

And AP's Will Lester wraps it all up and calls Fahrenheit 9/11 "a pop culture phenomenon that is raising public interest in the Iraq war just as the United States is attempting a crucial handoff of power to Iraqis." LINK

ABC News Vote 2004: the battlegrounds:

Across the country's battleground states, local media are tackling an all-important question on the heels of the Iraqi handover: will our hometown soldiers get to come home any sooner? Few stories are answering this question in a way helpful to the Bush Administration. LINK and LINK and LINK and LINK

Poll numbers that look favorable for the president in Northern Nevada — including recent horserace figures that show Bush with 49 percent of likely voters to Kerry's 43 — are not as good as they first appear, reports the Reno Gazette-Journal. Pollster Del Ali tells the paper that "he expected Bush's support to be much higher in Northern Nevada, which was responsible for Bush's 2000 victory in the state." LINK

The Financial Times reports that Senator Kerry is making a special push to attract Latino voters, since they comprise a crucial constituency in the swing states of Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico. LINK

The Kerry camp's house meetings in West Virginia get some favorable press from WTOV-TV, which Notes the campaign is "reaching out to all of the Mountain State's counties." LINK

Gas prices continue to make headlines in Ohio, with the Lima News reporting that prices at the pump for the fourth of July will be the highest ever in the state, although they are down slightly from their peak in mid-May. Not helping matters is a recent increase in state gas taxes. LINK and LINK

Political reporters take Note: In what may be the biggest poll release of the day, the Canton Repository has announced its findings from a survey of 625 Stark County residents. The poll finds the economy and unemployment are the biggest factors locally in the presidential race; 63 percent of residents blame outsourcing for the area's unemployment woes; 54 percent think the economy is still getting worse; and 55 percent say the Bush tax cuts are not working. In spite of this, the poll shows a dead heat in the presidential contest, with Senator Kerry at 42 percent to Bush's 41, with 14 percent of likely voters still undecided. LINK

Today's Stark-County-is-the-bellwether-to-end-all-bellwethers story comes to the nation courtesy of the St. Petersburg Times, which takes a thoughtful look at the question of whether "pocketbook concerns trump cultural issues" in the Rust Belt. LINK

The St. Petersburg Times' Adam Smith takes his turn in Stark County.. LINK

Parties and groups have submitted thousands of absentee ballot applications to county auditors more than four months ahead of election day. LINK

Watch to see whether the GOP can replicate what the Democrats did in 2002 with absentees.

With hopes of becoming president of a democratic Iraq by age 35, Sarkawt Muhamad is one of ten undergraduate college students from the Middle East to be living in Fayetteville, Arkansas this summer as part of a new State Department program. LINK

The rent keeps going up in New Hampshire, the AP reports. LINK

The Miami Herald 's Gary Fineout reports, "The accuracy of Florida's $2 million central voter database came under fire again Monday, following revelations that the list does not include the names of thousands of former criminals whose right to vote was restored prior to 1977." LINK

The AP reports on complaints of a Portland-based gay-rights group asserting that supporters of a gay-marriage ban pressured people into signing petitions and failed to witness voters' signatures. LINK

Veepstakes:

Senator Kerry and Rep. Gephardt may share a few words today when they speak at the Rainbow-Push coalition conference in Chicago.

Elsewhere: Senator John Edwards returns from vacation July 4 with his annual North Carolina beach walk. He's in Boston later that week addresses his friends at ATLA.

Former Defense Sec. William Cohen returns to the U.S. today and plans to be in Washington for the week.

Despite talks of a vice presidency somewhere over the rainbow, Gov. Bill Richardson still is focused on New Mexico politics as he told the Racing Commission to revise the angrily contested 2005 horse-racing schedule they approved. LINK

Ya know what the racing commission say? "Nay." Ha! (Actually, they didn't say that but we couldn't resist the joke).

Nader-Camejo:

During an airport layover conversation, Ralph Nader told Nicole Warburton of the Salt Lake Tribune the Green Party's decision to nominate David Cobb was a mistake. Lest anyone should get the wrong idea from Nader's failure to win their endorsement last Saturday, Nader clarifies he's confident he can get on the ballot in 44 states without them, and denied suggestions that he had been "rejected." LINK

So, Boston Globe editorial headlines like "Nader Spurned" are like water off a duck. (Yeah).

"Nader is a political vagrant. Having been denied the endorsement, he will now try to find another ballot line so that he can run against the Green Party. The Greens, and the rest of the nation, would be better off if Nader concentrated on writing books, instead of contesting ballots," says Boston. LINK

Now turning to the sexy topic of ballot access. In Arizona, there are more potential problems. A lawsuit, filed Wednesday, contends more than 70 percent of pro-Nader petition signatures were invalid, mostly because signers or petitioners were not qualified. In the latest development, there are allegations of discrepancies with Nader's own John Hancock. A Republican attorney who the Arizona Republic's John Kamman reports has long been associated with the GOP, will represent Nader's interests in the case. LINK

Reuters reports the campaign is talking to the Natural Law party about using their ballot line in California. LINK

Without a party to put him on the ballot there, Nader will have to drum up 153,000 signatures by Aug. 6 to get on the ballot. Richard Winger of Ballot Access News tells the AP that would be "an unlikely feat."

The Santa Fe New Mexican's Steve Terrell reports a Green for Nader says she is optimistic supporters will gather the required 14,527 petition signatures by Sept. 7 to get their seat-belt lovin' candidate on the ballot. LINK

Nader supporters in Washington say the rolling convention that kicked-off this weekend has produced at least the minimum required 1,000 signatures. LINK

A complaint against Nader's ballot access was filed yesterday with the Illinois board of elections. Grounds for the complaint cannot be released until after Nader, and his vice presidential stand-in Jan Pierce have been notified. The attorney who filed the claim, Michael Kasper is also general counsel for the Democratic Party of Illinois. According to the Illinois Democratic party spokesman, they were "helping" the man who filed the claim and others examine Nader's petitions to make sure they comply with the law. LINK

The conventions:

The New York Times ' Jim Rutenberg reports "former President Bill Clinton will be the opening-night attraction of the Democratic convention in Boston next month, kicking off the four-day event with a speech in prime time, just as he did in 2000, party officials said on Monday." LINK

The New York Daily News' Kenneth Bazinet reports that the Democrats plan a tribute to veterans. LINK

The Los Angeles Times' Mark Z. Barabak analyzes the Republicans choices for speaking, Noting that Schwarzenegger, McCain, and Giuliani all share an appeal to swing voters. LINK

The Palm Beach Post's printing of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Bob Kemper's write up of the convention speakers has this headline: "Democrat Zell Miller to address GOP convention." LINK

The New York Daily News' Michael Saul reports that Mayor Bloomberg said one protest group is making it harder for all the others to get permits. LINK

Massachusetts voters are split over the DNC convention. According to the Boston Herald, "44 percent said it'll be good for Boston overall, and 43 percent believe it will hurt the city." LINK

The Boston Herald reports that an angry Boston Mayor Thomas M. Menino was not as his tour guide best. "[T]hwarted by union protests as he tried to show off the city to the nation's mayors, [he] is warning the bitter labor dispute could wreck the Democratic National Convention." LINK

Morning show wrap:

LINK

TODAY'S SCHEDULE (all times ET):
—2:00 am: President Bush participates in a working session of the NATO-Ukraine Commission at the Convention and Exhibition Center, Istanbul, Turkey
—3:20 am: President Bush participates in a photo opportunity with leaders of the Adriatic Charter Companies, Istanbul, Turkey
—3:35 am: President Bush participates in a Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council family photo, Istanbul, Turkey
—3:45 am: President Bush participates in a working session of the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council, Istanbul, Turkey
—7:10 am: President Bush delivers a speech at Galatasaray University, Istanbul, Turkey
—7:30 am: Rep. Pat Toomey, in conjunction with the RNC, speaks about the "sanctity of marriage, respect for life, and traditional values" at the Days Inn, Allentown, Pa.
—8:30 am: The Presidential Advisory Council on HIV/AIDS meets, Washington, D.C.
—9:45 am: The Senate debates the nomination of Jay Leon Holmes as District Judge in Oklahoma
—10:00 am: The Supreme Court hands down decisions
—10:00 am: Sen. Kerry speaks at the annual Rainbow/PUSH coalition and citizen education fund conference at the Sheraton, Chicago, Ill.
—10:00 am: Pollsters Celinda Lake and Ed Goeas release the latest George Washington University Battleground 2004 Poll at the National Press Club, Washington, D.C.
—10:00 am: American Petroleum Institute chief economist John Felmy speaks about "What's Up (or Down) with Gas Prices?" at the National Press Club, Washington, D.C.
—10:00 am: Ralph Nader and others participate in a panel discussion on the Muslim vote at the Capitol sponsored by the National Interest and the Council for American-Islamic Relations, Washington, D.C.
—10:00 am: The Leadership Conference on Civil Rights and the Brennan Center for Justice at NYU School of Law release a report on the use of electronic voting machines at a Washington Court Hotel news conference, Washington, D.C.
—10:00 am: Rep. Dick Gephardt speaks at the Rainbow/PUSH conference about "The Wal-Mart Factor: Dumbing Down the American Economy," Chicago, Ill.
—11:00 am: Senior Bush-Cheney political adviser Karen Hughes holds a conference call with members of Women Impacting Public Policy
—11:00 am: Teresa Heinz Kerry participates in a discussion on child care at the Friendly House, Davenport, Iowa.
—12:00 pm: Homeland Security Undersecretary for Border and Transportation Asa Hutchinson speaks at a luncheon titled "Turing the Tide: Securing America's Ports"
sponsored by the Critical Infrastructure Protection Project at George Mason University School, Washington, D.C.
—12:00 pm: Vice President Cheney attends a fundraiser luncheon for the RNC, New York, N.Y.
—12:30 pm: The Republican and Democratic party caucuses hold their weekly meetings
—3:00 pm: Former President Bill Clinton signs copies of his memoir, "My Life," at Cody's Books, Berkeley, Calif.
—3:30 pm: Teresa Heinz Kerry participates in a discussion on child care at the Primary Health Care Outreach Clinic, Des Moines, Iowa
—5:30 pm: Sen. Kerry speaks at the National Council of La Raza annual conference at the Phoenix Civic Center, Phoenix, Ariz.
—7:00 pm: RNC Chairman Ed Gillespie speaks at the grand opening of the Lane County Victory Office, Eugene, Ore.
—7:05 pm: Vice President Cheney attends the Yankees-Red Sox game at Yankees Stadium, Bronx, N.Y
—7:30 pm: 2004 Republican National Convention CEO Bill Harris introduces Bush-Cheney '04 Campaign Manager Ken Mehlman at the New York Press Club, New York, N.Y.
—9:00 pm: RNC Chairman Gillespie speaks at an RNC fundraiser, Eugene, Ore.
—11:30 pm: Former President Clinton signs books at a Barnes & Noble, San Jose, Calif.


— June 28-29, 2004: NATO summit, Istanbul, Turkey
— June 28-30, 2004: Fmr. President Bill Clinton holds book signings of in San Francisco and San Jose, and Seattle
— June 29, 2004: Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) addresses the 2004 National Council of La Raza Annual Conference, Phoenix
— June 29, 2004: Fmr. President Bill Clinton signs copies of My Life at Cody's Books in Berkley, Calif. and Barnes & Noble in San Jose, Calif.
— June 30, 2004: Scheduled date for the transfer of power from the Coalition Provisional Authority to the Iraqi Transitional National Assembly
— June 30, 2004: Fmr. President Bill Clinton signs copies of My Life at Costco, Issaquah, Wash. and Elliott Bay Book Co. in Seattle
— July 1, 2004: Vice President Cheney attends a fundraiser for Georgia congressional candidate Calder Clay, Macon, Ga.
— July 1, 2004: Fmr. President Bill Clinton holds a book signing of "My Life" at Barbara's Bookstore at the University of Illinois Chicago
— July 2, 2004: Rock the Vote's voter registration bus tour goes to the Tom Joyner Skyshow, New Orleans
— July 2, 2004: Fmr. President Bill Clinton signs copies of My Life at Books-A-Million in Little Rock, Ark.
— July 2-3, 2004: Installation of the Sheekey Bridge, New York City
— July 2-7, 2004: National Education Association annual meeting, Washington, D.C.
— July 3, 2004: Fmr. President Bill Clinton holds book signings of "My Life" at a Wal-Mart in Fayetteville, Ark. and at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia
— July 3-4, 2004: Vice President Cheney takes a campaign bus trip through Ohio, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania
— July 4, 2004: Independence Day
— July 6, 2004: President George W. Bush's birthday
— July 6, 2004: Rep. Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) speaks at a dinner sponsored by the Leadership Forum, D.C.
— July 6-7, 2004: Fmr. President Bill Clinton holds book signings of "My Life" at Politics & Prose and Barnes & Noble, D.C.
— July 6-8, 2004: ACLU Membership Conference featuring a debate on elections issues between fmr. Gov. Howard Dean (D-Vt.) and Gov. Bill Owens (R-Colo.), San Francisco
— July 7, 2004: Campaign Finance Institute sponsors a forum on party convention financing at the National Press Club, D.C.
— July 7, 2004: Fmr. President Bill Clinton signs copies of My Life at Barnes & Noble in Washington, D.C.
— July 8, 2004: Kerry Victory Committee 2004 benefit concert, New York City
— July 9, 2004: Deadline for Ralph Nader to qualify to be on the ballot in Nevada
— July 9-10, 2004: DNC full platform committee's "A Plan for America" meeting, Miami, Fla.
— July 9-10, 2004: UNITE HERE Merger Convention, Chicago
— July 10-11, 2004: Rock the Vote's voter registration bus tour goes to the Dave Matthews Band concerts in Hershey, Pa., and Bristow, Va.
— July 10-16, 2004: 95th NAACP annual convention, Philadelphia
— July 12, 2004: Chris Heinz is the "special guest" at Kerry fundraiser on the rooftop of the Hotel Gansevoort, New York, NY.
— July 13-14, 2004: Rock the Vote's voter registration bus tour goes to the 2004 NAACP Convention, Philadelphia, Pa.
— July 13-17, 2004: American Federation of Teachers National Convention
— July 13, 2004: 75th Major League Baseball All-Star Game, Houston
— July 13, 2004: National George Bush Meetup Day
— July 14, 2004: Fmr. President Gerald Ford's birthday
— July 15, 2004: Deadline for Ralph Nader to qualify to be on the ballot in Michigan
— July 15-19, 2004: National Association of Secretaries of State summer conference, New Orleans
— July 16, 2004: Construction of the Sheekey Bridge scheduled to conclude, New York City
— July 16-17, 2004: Rock the Vote's voter registration bus tour goes to the Dave Matthews Band concerts in Hartford, Conn.
— July 17-19, 2004: National Governors Association's annual conference, Seattle
— July 19-23, 2004: National Conference of State Legislatures' annual meeting and exhibition, featuring appearances by Donna Brazile and Bill Kristol, Salt Lake City
— July 19, 2004: RNC's New York City Host Committee scheduled to hand over the keys for the Farley Post Office Building and the Sheekey Bridge to the Republican National Convention, New York City
— July 20, 2004: North Carolina state primary
— July 20, 2004: Georgia state primary
— July 20, 2004: Fmr. President Bill Clinton holds a book signing of "My Life" at the Tattered Cover Bookstore, Denver
— July 21, 2004: Fmr. President Bill Clinton signs copies of My Life at the Chapter 11 bookstore in Atlanta
— July 22, 2004: National John Kerry Meetup Day
— July 22, 2004: Fmr. President Bill Clinton holds a book signing of "My Life" at Books & Books, Coral Gables, Fla.
— July 22-24, 2004: Rock the Vote's voter registration bus tour goes to the National Urban League's conference, Detroit
— July 25-26, 2004: Rock the Vote's concert, Boston
— July 26, 2004: Final report due from the 9/11 Commission
— July 26, 2004: Deadline for Ralph Nader to qualify to be on the ballot in Missouri
— July 26, 2004: Target start date for the 108th Congress' August recess
— July 26, 2004: Hip-Hop Summit Action Network summit, Boston
— July 26-29, 2004: Democratic National Convention, Boston
— Aug. 2, 2004: Deadline for Ralph Nader to qualify to be on the ballot in Arkansas, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia
— Aug. 3, 2004: Missouri state primary
— Aug. 3, 2004: Kansas state primary
— Aug. 3, 2004: Michigan state primary
— Aug. 5, 2004: Tennessee state primary
— Aug. 6-8, 2004: National Association of State Election Directors summer meeting, Portland, Ore.
— Aug. 7, 2004: Friends of Hillary fundraiser for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) at the home of Alan and Susan Patricof, East Hampton, N.Y.
— Aug. 9, 2004: National George Bush Meetup Day
— Aug. 10, 2004: Colorado state primary
— Aug. 10, 2004: Georgia state primary
— Aug. 10, 2004: Connecticut state primary
— Aug. 11, 2004: Deadline for Ralph Nader to qualify to be on the ballot in New Hampshire
— Aug. 14-29, 2004: Summer Olympic Games, Athens, Greece
— Aug. 15, 2004: Deadline for Ralph Nader to qualify to be on the ballot in Iowa
— Aug. 19, 2004: Deadline for Ralph Nader to qualify to be on the ballot in Ohio and Tennessee
— Aug. 19, 2004: Fmr. President Bill Clinton's birthday
— Aug. 21, 2004: Hip-Hop Summit Action Network summit, St. Louis
— Aug. 21, 2004: Rock the Vote's voter registration bus tour goes to Ben & Jerry's, Burlington, Vt.
— Aug. 24, 2004: Oklahoma state primary
— Aug. 24, 2004: Alaska state primary
— Aug. 24, 2004: Deadline for Ralph Nader to qualify to be on the ballot in Oregon
— Aug. 25, 2004: Deadline for Ralph Nader to qualify to be on the ballot in Washington
— Aug. 26, 2004: National John Kerry Meetup Day
— Aug. 27-28, 2004: Arkansas Democratic Party's state convention, Little Rock, Ark.
— Aug. 28, 2004: NCAA I-A football kickoff between Virginia Tech and the University of Southern California in the 2004 Black Coaches Association Football Classic, Landover, Md.
— Aug. 30-Sept. 2, 2004: Republican National Convention, New York City
— Aug. 30-Sept. 2, 2004: Rock the Vote's voter registration bus tour goes to the Republican National Convention, New York City
— Aug. 30- Sept. 12, 2004: U.S. Open tennis championships, Flushing, N.Y.
— Aug. 31, 2004: Florida state primary
— Sept. 1, 2004: Targeted opening of the CNN studios in the Center at Columbus Circle, New York City
— Sept. 1, 2004: Deadline for Ralph Nader to qualify to be on the ballot in Florida
— Sept. 2-5, 2004: American Political Science Association annual meeting, Chicago
— Sept. 6, 2004: Labor Day
— Sept. 7, 2004: Target end date for the 108th Congress' August recess
— Sept. 7, 2004: Arizona state primary
— Sept. 7, 2004: Nevada state primary
— Sept. 7, 2004: Deadline for Ralph Nader to qualify to be on the ballot in Louisiana and New Mexico
— Sept. 8-11, 2004: Congressional Black Caucus Foundation Annual Legislative Conference, Washington, D.C.
— Sept. 9, 2004: NFL's season opener between the Indianapolis Colts and the New England Patriots, Foxboro, Mass.
— Sept. 11, 2004: Patriot Day
— Sept. 11, 2004: Delaware state primary
— Sept. 14, 2004: Deadline for Ralph Nader to qualify to be on the ballot in Wisconsin
— Sept. 14, 2004: National George Bush Meetup Day
— Sept. 14, 2004: New Hampshire state primary
— Sept. 14, 2004: Wisconsin state primary
— Sept. 14, 2004: Washington state primary
— Sept. 14, 2004: Vermont state primary
— Sept. 14, 2004: Massachusetts state primary
— Sept. 14, 2004: Minnesota state primary
— Sept. 14, 2004: New York state primary
— Sept. 14, 2004: District of Columbia district primary
— Sept. 15, 2004: National Health Policy Council hosts a day long forum titled "A National Health Policy Blue Print for the President," Los Angeles
— Sept. 16, 2004: Rosh Hashanah
— Sept. 22, 2004: First day of fall
— Sept. 23, 2004: National John Kerry Meetup Day
— Sept. 24-25, 2004: Christian Coalition's Road To Victory conference, D.C.
— Sept. 25, 2004: Yom Kippur
— Sept. 28, 2004: Fmr. Vice President Al Gore and fmr. Sen. Bob Dole (R-Kan.) take part in Southern Methodist University's Linda and Mitch Hart Lecture moderated by David Gergen, Dallas
— Sept. 30, 2004: Proposed presidential debate at the University of Miami, Miami
— Oct. 1, 2004: Fmr. President Jimmy Carter's birthday
— Oct. 1, 2004: Target adjournment for the 108th Congress
— Oct. 3, 2004: Rev. Al Sharpton's birthday
— Oct. 5, 2004: Proposed vice presidential debate at Case Western University, Cleveland
— Oct. 8, 2004: Proposed presidential debate at Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis
— Oct. 8, 2004: Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-Ohio)'s birthday
— Oct. 11, 2004: Columbus Day
— Oct. 12, 2004: National George Bush Meetup Day
— Oct. 13, 2004: Proposed presidential debate at Arizona State University, Tempe
— Oct. 16, 2004: Early voting begins in New Mexico
— Oct. 16, 2004: Ramadan begins
— Oct. 19, 2004: Early voting begins in Florida
— Oct. 21, 2004: Alfred E. Smith memorial dinner at the Waldorf-Astoria Hotel, New York City
— Oct. 23, 2004: Scheduled start of the 2004 World Series
— Oct. 28, 2004: National John Kerry Meetup Day
— Oct. 31, 2004: Daylight savings time ends
— Nov. 2, 2004: Election Day
— Nov. 5, 2004: President George W. Bush and Laura Bush's 27th wedding anniversary
— Nov. 11, 2004: Veterans' Day
— Nov. 17, 2004: Fmr. Gov. Howard Dean (D-Vt.)'s birthday
— Nov. 18, 2004: Official opening of the William J. Clinton Presidential Center, Little Rock, Ark.
— Nov. 25, 2004: Thanksgiving Day
— Dec. 4, 2004: Louisiana congressional runoff
— Dec. 7, 2004: Hanukkah begins
— Dec. 11, 2004: Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.)'s birthday
— Dec. 21, 2004: First day of winter
— Dec. 23, 2004: Ret. Gen. Wesley Clark's birthday
— Dec. 25, 2004: Christmas Day
— Jan. 6-8, 2005: Southern Political Science Association conference, New Orleans

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