—9:00 am: House convenes for morning business
—9:30 am: Governor Howard Dean meets with Palo Alto County Democrats, Emmetsburg, Iowa
—9:30 am: Senate convenes for legislative business
—10:00 am: Senator John Kerry holds a press event at National Aperture, Salem, N.H.
—11:30 am: General Wesley Clark meets with local business owners to talk about economic issues, Nashua, N.H.
—11:15 am: Governor Dean meets with Kossuth County Democrats, Algona, Iowa
—12:15 pm: Senator Kerry goes on a downtown walk with Mayor Bob Baines, Manchester, N.H.
—1:15 pm: Governor Dean meets with Hancock County Democrats, Klemme, Iowa
—2:45 pm: Governor Dean meets with Winnebago County Democrats, Lake Mills, Iowa
—4:30 pm: Governor Dean discusses the economic impact of renewable energy business, Joice, Iowa
—6:30 pm: Governor Dean meets with Mitchell County Democrats, Osage, Iowa
—7:00 pm: Mayor John Street and Sam Katz participate in their final televised mayoral debate, Philadelphia
—8:30 pm: Governor Dean meets with Cerro Gordo County Democrats, Mason City, Iowa

NEWS SUMMARY

The Note endorses endorsements, as the vehicle to alert you to a covey of must-reads.

The Washington Post 's Eilperin and Broder endorse the notion that Tom Reynolds is no Ed Rollins, circa 1990 — try as they might, the reporters couldn't really find too much concern among "endangered" House Republicans over Iraq and the economy and any Bush reverse coattails. LINK

The Note endorses the notion that Howard Dean just might have let expectations get out of control.

While much of the coverage still assumes that Dean will become his party's standard bearer — maybe after running the first-in-the-nation Iowa/New Hampshire table (Dick Morris endorses that exact concept today … . LINK), what if Gephardt wins Iowa and Kerry wins New Hampshire, creating two Comeback Kids and leaving Dean the odd man out with no obvious place to win next?

David Yepsen endorses the Gephardt surge and Dean stall in his state: "Dean's campaign appears to have plateaued … .Gephardt is creeping back ahead of Dean in Iowa." LINK

A new New Hampshire poll, whether it is as solid methodologically as a Zogby poll or not, shows Kerry closer to Dean, giving the Bay Stater's boots on the ground a psychic lift. LINK

The Washington Post 's Jim VandeHei gets a lot of Republicans to endorse Dick Gephardt as the president's strongest general election opponent, a common view of Republicans who view the opposing party's nomination fight and potential strengths through the prism of their own party's dynamics. LINK

(The Note endorses VandeHei's deeming of Frank Luntz as "a former GOP pollster.")

Ron Brownstein, who Cassandra-like foresaw Bill Bradley's trouble with non-college Democrats post-New Hampshire, endorses the notion that Howard Dean is going to have trouble (at least in the general election) if he can't broaden his base. LINK

Brownstein also endorses the notion that South Carolina "is emerging as the marquee contest on Feb. 3," which we think Governor Napolitano might not endorse.

Of course, there is still a lot of ink being spilled on the assumption that Dean will/might be nominated.

The Hill's quasi-endorsement of all the hand-wringing House Democrats in swing districts who think Dean's record on civil unions will kill them in the general should maybe be tempered by the fact that the Bush-Cheney ticket will have the second most pro-gay vice president ever on it, not to mention Mrs. Cheney hanging around. LINK

(Note to Bob Matsui: who are the "top five" candidates of which you speak? Or, more to the point, who are you leaving out?)

David Brooks uses his New York Times column to endorse John Edwards' capacity, as the son of a meeal worker, to reach out to culturally alienated Democrats. LINK

As for the second-day Lieberman/Clark Iowa stories, the Los Angeles Times Mark "Z" Barabak endorses the notion that skipping the state is historically risky, and endorses the legitimacy of the current first-in-the-nation influence — acting, however, as if said influence rises out of the ether, with no human intervention whatsoever. LINK

Tom Oliphant endorses the Generic Democrat over the Real Democrat. LINK

Peter Canellos of the Boston Globe endorses the heroic knowledge and activism of the New Hampshire voter, medium-sized Granite State newspapers, and the notion of using an anecdotal lead based on a Center of the Universe Holiday Inn desk clerk! LINK

The New York Times ed board, however, doesn't endorse any of that at all, savaging all that is sacred about first-in-the-nationness and front-loading, and endorsing (actually: "encouraging") skipping (and "steals" our ethanol joke!). LINK

The New York Times ' Edmund Andrews endorses the view that the president's Treasury Secretary is a bit more optimistic about job growth than some others. LINK

The Wall Street Journal 's ed board endorses Secretary John "Jack" Snow's "warning" that interest rates will rise as the economy heats up.

The Journal's George Melloan, however, can't endorse that at all, saying the Snow job caused the president problems on Asian currencies.

The Note endorses the notion that we still wonder who the president's chief economic spokesperson is, with the election about a year away.

The Washington Post ed board implicitly endorses our notion that its ongoing, niggling criticism of BC04's campaign disclosure makes them candidates themselves for the loony bin. LINK

But we endorse the notion that an ed board actually affecting real-world change (in this case, getting Democratic campaigns to make meaningful, voluntary disclosure) deserves major kudos.

Osama bin Laden endorses Congressman Spratt's view that the deficit shows weakness: "This year's deficit reached a record number estimated at $450 billion. Therefore, we thank God," he said on the new tape. (We aren't kidding.) LINK

President Bush continues his Asian tour today with a stops in Singapore and Indonesia.

Governor Dean campaigns in Iowa.

General Clark campaigns in New Hampshire.

Senator Kerry campaigns in New Hampshire today before heading back to D.C.

Congressman Gephardt, Senator Lieberman, Senator Edwards, Ambassador Moseley Braun, Congressman Kucinich, and Reverend Sharpton have no public events today.

ABC News Vote 2004: The Invisible Primary:

USA Today has a front-page health care story that's sure to give some fresh talking points to some of the campaigns. LINK

A new poll has Dean, Clark leading the pack of Democratic hopefuls in Arizona. LINK

Lieberman and Clark Can Now Oppose Ethanol:

USA Today 's Jill Lawrence writes up the Clark and Lieberman decisions to skip Iowa, Noting, "Unlike past years, there are plenty of other places to go." LINK

William Saletan writes, "Together, Clark and Lieberman have enough clout to create an alternative, if weaker, story line: The problem isn't them; it's Iowa — and without their participation, the caucuses mean that much less." LINK

"This is not the ideal strategy for winning the Democratic nomination, but for these two candidates, it's probably the only strategy," said Stu Rothenberg in the Washington Times . That about sums it up. LINK

The Washington Times doesn't think dropping out of Iowa is really the white flag for Lieberman some contend it to be. LINK

The Orlando Sentinel's Silva posits the "strategic gamble by two Democratic candidates for president to bypass Iowa's season-opening January caucuses will boost the power of February primaries in South Carolina and several other Sun Belt states." And in a graph sure to delight Mr. McAuliffe, Silva continues:

"In addition, the move could increase the significance of a disputed 'straw poll' at the Florida party's convention in December by launching a candidate in one of the most pivotal 2004 states."

As for the Lieberman & Clark expedition:

"I don't think the strategy of bypassing Iowa is a very wise one," said Gordon Fischer, Iowa Democratic Party chairman. LINK

In his two-way with Bill Hemmer this morning on CNN about the Skippers, it was hard to tell for which Jeff Greenfield had the most contempt: pundits who try to make grand statements about the importance of winning Iowa and/or New Hampshire; the influence of Iowa and New Hampshire; or Bill Hemmer.

Iowa:

With Clark and Lieberman planning to skip Iowa, the Tribune's Jeff Zeleny ponders why it continues to be the nation's first caucus LINK

More from David Yepsen: "Two new polls of likely Iowa Democratic caucus-goers [taken before the Clark and Lieberman announcements] indicate Howard Dean has peaked here and that Richard Gephardt has dug himself out of a summertime hole to reclaim his position as the front-runner in the state." LINK

Yepsen also writes that "Dean's campaign appears to have plateaued. The California recall took much of the limelight away from him. Then Clark's entrance into the race pulled media attention away from Dean and gave anti-war Democrats another champion. Most important, the economy ranks higher than the Iraq war as the most important issue for Democrats. That means the campaign dialogue has shifted from issues that played to Dean's early strength and moved toward Gephardt, who has always maintained a focus on jobs."

Fair trade is bringing Iowa farmers and unions together, reports the New York Times ' Elizabeth Becker. LINK

(Note clue: this is another must-read.)

In serious fighting words, one Mickey Kaus calls the Iowa caucuses a "highly unrepresentative, media-created event." LINK

Dean:

The duly dubbed "Dean Divers" have descended on Vermont public records to dig up anything and everything on The Doctor. The divers include rival campaign workers, journalists, and even Dean's own aides. LINK

More from Brownstein, who produces one of the more eye-popping leads of the cycle: "Can Howard Dean escape the Starbucks ghetto?" LINK

Brownstein highlights the Dean (or Hart or Tsongas or Bradley) divide between those Democrats with a college degree and those without one. As David Axelrod likes to call them, "the wine track" and "the beer track."

From ABC News' Dean campaign reporter Marc Ambinder:

"Governor Dean took a minute to comment on the Clark and Lieberman decisions to skip Iowa:"

"'I think Iowa is a pretty important state, but I don't think it's up to me. It was a strategic decision that they made. It may diminish Senator Lieberman and General Clark, but it won't diminish Iowa.'"

"Dean began a three-day tour of rural northwestern Iowa yesterday, visiting his 91st Hawkeye State county in a bid to become the first candidate since Dick Gephardt in 1988 to set foot in all 99. By normal Dean standards, the crowds were small. (He rarely turns out fewer than 100 in New Hampshire.) But by the standards of largely Republican northwestern Iowa, the turnout was appreciable, campaign aides said, and bystanders agreed."

"Dean's final stop Monday at Iowa Lakes Community College attracted more than 150 people, but at least 50 of them were students receiving extra credit for being there. Jane Campbell, a spokeswoman for the college, said that two teachers offered their students extra credit to attend and write an essay assignment about it."

"Media strategist Steve McMahon and a film crew trailed Dean at several stops. In between events, they shot several classic Iowa ad tableaus — Dean with his coat slung over his shoulder talking to older Democrats outside a diner — Dean listening intently to school board members and older Democrats in a school library — Dean on the side of the road explaining to older Democrats the virtues of his rural development policy, a farmer's co-op beautifully framed in the background."

"Finally, Dean pierced the veil on a few elements of his higher education policy, which he'll roll out sometime in November."

"Asked at a town hall meeting how he'd improve the system, Dean said he had a plan that would 'guarantee that the first year [of college] will be essentially free,' and that he would quadruple the size of AmeriCorps."

Clark:

The New York Post 's Brian Blomquist writes up Steve Bouchard's expectations-setting prediction for General Clark's showing in New Hampshire. Apparently, you can skip Iowa, come in fourth in New Hampshire, and have a clear path to the nomination. LINK

Despite being third in state polls, Clark's campaign director says he'll consider a fourth place finish in New Hampshire a successful showing. LINK

From ABC News' Clark campaign reporter Deborah Apton:

"In their first conference call Monday, communications director Matt Bennett and New Hampshire State director Steve Bouchard gave some insight into the campaign's approach in New Hampshire."

"'I think if we can finish in the top four we're competitive and moving on,' Bennett said. Clark and the campaign 'want to pick their battles and not their campaigns in the best terrain they got,' Bennett said, which means focusing on New Hampshire and talking again about what one senior adviser called the 'McArthur strategy.'"

Lieberman:

David Lightman says Lieberman's style could work in Delaware, but "it's going to be a slow sell — not because Lieberman is unpopular, but because few in the state realize there's going to be a presidential primary." LINK

Iowa's loss is Arizona's gain. Elvia Diaz reports on Lieberman's Arizona campaign and says according to a new state poll, Lieberman has lost his lead to Clark and Dean, "although the race statistically is a dead heat." LINK

With a slap at the early influence of Democratic voters in Iowa and New Hampshire in determining the party's presidential nominees, a New York state Assembly leader said Monday that Joe Lieberman was the best hope to beat President Bush. LINK

The Norwich Bulletin has this report on Lieberman skipping half of Senate votes to campaign. LINK

From ABC News' Lieberman campaign reporter Talesha Reynolds:

"Senator Lieberman was upbeat yesterday in Delaware, smiling, joking and taking questions about Iowa in stride. He mentioned the 'uniqueness' of Iowa's caucus system more than once, and seemed relieved to now be exempt from the process."

"Asked why he's beefing up efforts in New Hampshire when his chances of winning there are nearly as slim as Iowa, Lieberman said, 'I feel like we're rising in New Hampshire. And New Hampshire has a primary. Iowa has caucuses, which are complicated.'"

"At the Latin American Community Center in Wilmington, Lieberman sat in tiny plastic chairs and talked to 4- and 5-year-olds about art — glitter and fingerpaints — and music — a plastic drum that little Sergio was intent on beating throughout his encounter with the Senator."

"The extent of Lieberman's Spanish appears to be 'mucho gusto,' (pleased to meet you) and appropriately, 'fe, patria y familia,' (faith, country and family.)"

"At the Modern Maturity Center in Dover, Lieberman's joke about the naked 83-year-old went over like gangbusters (see Lightman's story above for the joke). The seniors filling the huge cafeteria roared and clapped. But when it came to the candidate's speech, they seemed to be more interested in their macaroni and cheese. One woman asked me who the man was who told the joke. Another expressed her surprise at the amount of press assembled because she said Lieberman's campaign is obviously 'floundering.'"

The AP writes up Lieberman's Delaware visit. LINK

Kerry:

The Boston Globe 's Glen Johnson reports on Kerry's environmental speech in New Hampshire yesterday, where he "accused the Bush administration of deceiving Americans." LINK

The Boston Herald's Andrew Miga reports on the big Kerry donors and recaps Kerry's appearance on "Hardball." LINK and LINK

The Boston Globe 's Patrick Healy plays some freakin' "Hardball." LINK

Did the Senator unveil his 8th position on his Iraq vote?!!!!

From ABC News' Kerry campaign reporter Ed O'Keefe:

"After his round on the WMUR & Every Child Matters Education Fund-sponsored forum Monday, Senator John F. Kerry faced a gaggle of local and national press eagerly seeking reaction to Lieberman and Clark's decision to leave Iowa behind."

"'I don't think we should pick and choose … I'm trying to run a national campaign,' Kerry said. 'I think it's vital, if you're trying to be president, that you run in all the states. I'm running a national campaign and I don't think people want you to pick and choose.'"

"Kerry then moved to the University of New Hampshire's leaf-dotted lawn to unveil an environmental plan pledging to "leverage Superfund cleanup dollars", creating toxic tax forces at the EPA, rolling back the Bush administration Clean Air, and forming a 'Conservation Covenant.'"

"The New York Times explains further:" LINK

Edwards:

Appearing before a child advocacy group, Edwards pledged to put into law a requirement that all children have insurance. And while praising Dean for "good work," he also pointed out that Vermont has more than 5,000 children without insurance. LINK

From ABC News' Edwards campaign reporter Gloria Riviera:

"The Edwards campaign says it is just about halfway to its goal of holding 100 town hall meetings in New Hampshire. Yesterday Edwards focused on his proposal to provide health care for every child in America. As John Wagner reports in the News Observer's Eye on Edwards, the Senator pointed out that in Dr. Dean's state of Vermont, almost 5,000 children are without insurance and said, 'In my case, I am talking about every single child.' Edwards' plan would require by law that parents cover their children until age 21 and would offer tax breaks for high-quality health insurance. The campaign also released a candidate-by-candidate critique on the children's healthcare platform of Gephardt, Kerry, Dean and Lieberman."

"In response to U.S. News and World Report's cover story 'Big Money on Campus,' the campaign released a statement in which Edwards said, 'You can see in the student loan system everything that is wrong with Washington today. The banks get a guaranteed profit for their student loans, then protect those profits by hiring high-paid lobbyists who dole out golf outings, cruises and campaign contributions … We should get the banks out of the system and loan money directly to students.'"

Gephardt:

The Washington Post 's Jim VandeHei has been talking to lots of Republicans lately and he reports, "With the strongest union backing and deepest roots in the politically important industrial Midwest, [Gephardt] is emerging as the Democratic presidential candidate many prominent Republicans fear the most in the 2004 elections." LINK

But … .VandeHei Notes, "Many Democrats do not agree with the GOP assessment of Gephardt's electability."

From ABC News' Gephardt campaign reporter Sally Hawkins:

"The Gephardt campaign is set to announce the hiring of state campaign directors in three key February 3 primary states — Oklahoma, Arizona, and North Dakota — as early as today. They'll open offices and ramp up staff in the coming weeks."

"Last week, the campaign announced two appointments in Michigan — Ronald Platt as state director and Raymond Plowden as political director. While Gephardt has been focusing most of his attention on Iowa during the last few weeks, changes seem to be right around the corner."

Kucinich:

When the dust settles on Kucinich's presidential bid, Stuart Rothenberg wonders what'll be next for the one-time bad boy of Cleveland

LINK

Kucinich continues to lag behind in Ohio, garnering fewer donations than five of his Democratic rivals LINK

Sharpton:

A New York Post editorial suggests that a Golisano/Sharpton alliance, if one exists, "won't contribute anything to the public interest." LINK From ABC News' Sharpton campaign reporter Beth Loyd:

"Frank Watkins, Sharpton's former campaign manager was recently quoted in the St. Louis Post Dispatch as saying that the Sharpton campaign is much more like Jesse Jackson's campaign in 1984 (rather than in '88) because Sharpton has 'no money and no organization.' Sharpton, after putting on a too-tight red University Democrats T-shirt that was given to him at the University of Virginia, responded to Watkins' comment. 'That's not true, my campaign is more organized and has more money now.' Afterwards, while strolling through the lawn at UVA, still wearing the too-tight red T-shirt, he offered a bit more insight. He said Frank Watkins, 'is a great guy but he ran a national campaign 20 years ago. Things are different now. We need to get out there and talk to the people, not sit around and talk theory. And the money is not going to come from the same places Jesse got it, it will come from doing things like this at the universities.'

"The American Daily reports on the candidates' chances of winning and shockingly, Sharpton isn't included in the bottom — 'their chance of winning the nomination is less than winning the lottery' — tier consisting of Moseley Braun and Kucinich. Instead he is placed into the respectable 'Very Unlikely' category with Senator John Edwards." LINK

New Hampshire:

The Boston Globe 's Peter Canellos writes about savvy Granite State voters and wonders why all voters can't be like that. LINK

The Boston Globe 's Glen Johnson writes that Clark and Lieberman's Iowa withdrawal makes New Hampshire more happenin'. LINK

ABC News Vote 2004: Bush-Cheney re-elect:

More from the Washington Post 's Juliet Eilperin and David Broder on the worries of House members about Pennsylvania Avenue coattails in 2004. LINK

"Such erosion of GOP solidarity was rarely seen when Bush's approval ratings were higher, but it hardly signals a deep or permanent break between the White House and congressional GOP moderates. Republican lawmakers from swing districts say that Bush generally remains popular with their constituents, and that jobs, not Iraq, are number one on voters' minds. Many GOP House members are taking a cautious line: focusing on the possibility that Bush can't help them at reelection time, yet continuing to support him as much as possible."

The Washington Post 's Mike Allen has lots of fun ceremonial and etiquette tidbits from the president's trip. LINK

The Des Moines Register 's Lynn Okamoto reports that Vice President Cheney "struck back" at Democrats' criticism of the economy at a fundraiser for Congressman Jim Leach in Iowa yesterday. LINK

Also, Okamoto Notes, "Three years ago, Democrat Al Gore beat Bush in Iowa by 4,100 votes. Cheney vowed not to let that happen again."

Roll Call 's John Bresnahan explains why Michigan may be a "tough place to win" for President Bush next year.

"More importantly, manufacturing and international trade drive the Michigan economy, and on both fronts Bush finds himself on the wrong side of the political divide."

"Michigan has lost more than 150,000 manufacturing jobs over the past three years, and the state's unemployment hovers at just under 7 percent, well above the national average."

The Boston Globe 's Anne Kornblut reports, "Already awash in more campaign cash than all his Democratic rivals combined, President Bush is focusing his reelection efforts on building an even bigger war chest by year's end — a strategy past presidents have used to guarantee their reelection." LINK

Big Casino budget politics and the economy:

Fiscal year 2003 brought a $374 billion budget deficit, the Wall Street Journal 's Deborah Lagomarsino and John McKinnon report. And while it's nearly twice the size of last year's, it's better than economists had predicted, thanks in part to less government spending.

The shortfall is a sign that the economy is recovering, but the 2004 deficit prediction is still $500 billion, according to a statement by OMB director Josh Bolten.

Democrats have and will continue to jump on the deficit to criticize the Bush tax cuts, but Lagomarsino and McKinnon throw in a cautionary reminder:

"While the highest ever in absolute dollar terms, the $374 billion deficit for 2003 still falls short of the modern-day record as a percentage of gross domestic product. The 2003 deficit represents an estimated 3.5% of GDP. The post-World War II record is 6% of GDP, set in 1983."

Bigger than ever but smaller than predicted: The New York Times on the budget deficit. LINK

The Los Angeles Times looks at it too. LINK

So does USA Today . LINK

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal 's Greg Ip comes up with less rosy news about the economy's recovery: the Conference Board's index of indicators fell 0.2% in September.

USA Today 's Matt Krantz reports, "If early indications can be trusted, investors have nothing to fear in the flood of earnings reports hitting Wall Street this week." LINK

The Wall Street Journal 's Sarah Lueck reports that the Bush administration is pushing to keep any changes Congress makes to the structure of Medicare premiums away from the 40 million people currently in the program or soon to be in it.

Robert Pear on the congressional deal to "guarantee the availability of prescription drug benefits in any market where private insurers failed to do so." LINK

The politics of national security:

Heading into this week's Madrid donor conference on Iraq, the New York Times (respectfully distilled by The Note) offers the followings Dos and Don'ts.

Madrid do's:

-Contribute billions in grant money, especially if you are a rich Gulf state

-Grants, grants, grants

Madrid don'ts:

-Debt relief talk, especially you pesky Europeans who keep saying you want to help Iraq by offering the country easier terms for repaying international debt. -Focus on loans — grants are what the U.S. is seeking. LINK

As for congressional funding for Iraq reconstruction, the GOP's Senator Rick Santorum tells The Hill he remains confident the president will get his $87 billion, calling the Senate loan vote a "temporary setback" and asserting the loan language "will be taken out in conference." LINK

Lots of talk today of an American foreign policy with less sizzle and more lean.

Questions surface about just what the new American "security-guarantee-for-weapons-dismantling" proposal to North Korea entails.

Reports the Washington Post , "Diplomats involved in the negotiations … said the White House issued only a vague goal in its new plan and will now allow its allies to help determine the specifics. The officials noted that the approach was markedly different than the one the White House used during the war and occupation in Iraq."

"'We are not going to go in, all guns blazing, say take it or leave it, this is it,' said Bush's national security adviser, Condoleezza Rice. 'This is going to take some time.'"

The New York Times ed board uses the adjectives "wiser" and "more sophisticated" to describe the president's new North Korea approach. Goes the editorial, "Diplomacy is an important tool for advancing America's national security. It is good to see it coming back into fashion in the Bush White House." LINK

California's new governor:

Dan Morain of the Los Angeles Times has Wilson, Reagan, and Bush 41 Administration official Patricia Clarey on the shortest of short lists to become Governor-elect Schwarzenegger's chief of staff. And Rob Stutzman is preparing a much larger press operation than usually found in Sacramento, what with local television stations actually contemplating covering state politics and all that sort of thing. LINK

Kennedy loyalties expected to trump party loyalties post-recall, reports Geoff Earle of the Hill LINK

Politics:

New York, New York 10021 is "Piggybank Central" for the candidates running for president, reports the New York Post 's Deborah Orin. LINK

"This hip ZIP — home to designer shops like Giorgio Armani and posh hotels like The Carlyle — has coughed up more cash to re-elect President Bush than any other ZIP code in America … " The zip code hasn't proven too shabby for the Democrats either.

Clinton pollsters Penn, Schoen, and Berland have been hired by Michael Bloomberg to help in his quest to rid the city of partisan elections. LINK

The Bushes of Kennebunkport:

The Washington Post 's Brian Faler writes up the former first couple's assessment of the Democratic field. LINK

Ah, politics. One moment you can claim the American public was told lies leading up to the Iraq war and the next moment you can receive an "Excellence in Public Service" award from the president's father. The Bushes of Kennebunkport welcome the Kennedys of Hyannisport in Houston next month. LINK