—7:30 am: Senator Bob Graham attends a fundraising breakfast, New York City
—8:30 am: Senator Joe Lieberman attends a fundraising breakfast, Boca Raton, Fla.
—9:00 am: Howard Dean discusses mental health at Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center, Lebanon, N.H.
—9:50 am: President Bush addresses military personnel and their families, Fort Stewart, Ga.
—10:30 am: Senator John Kerry talks about college affordability at Benedict College, Columbia, S.C.
—12:00 pm: Howard Dean holds a "meet the candidate" event at Plymouth State University, N.H.
—12:00 pm: Elizabeth Edwards meets with voters in Chichester, N.H.
—12:30 pm: Senator Lieberman attends a fundraising lunch, West Palm Beach, Fla.
—1 pm: Congressman Dick Gephardt delivers a major policy speech, Des Moines, Iowa
—2:00 pm: Congressman Dennis Kucinich holds an editorial board meeting with the Concord Monitor, N.H.
—2:15 pm: Howard Dean speaks with mental health professionals, Concord, N.H.
—2:05 pm: President Bush makes remarks at a Haley Barbour for Governor luncheon fundraiser, Jackson, Miss.
—2:30 pm: Elizabeth Edwards meets with voters in Durham, N.H.
—5:15 pm: Howard Dean holds a meet-the-candidate event in Concord, N.H.
—5:15 pm: Congressman Dennis Kucinich meets with labor leaders, Hooksett, N.H.
—5:30 pm: Senator John Edwards campaigns at Swett's Restaurant, Nashville, Tenn.
—6:30 pm: Senator Graham attends a fundraiser at the Yankees game, Bronx, N.Y.
—6:35 pm: President Bush makes remarks at the Power Center 10th anniversary celebration, Houston

NEWS SUMMARY

Things to look forward to this weekend:
1. Bill Clinton's biggest, boldest return to politics, frying steak in Iowa and church-going with Gray Davis in South-Central.

2. David Yepsen's Sunday column on the Steak Fry (see below for a preview).

3. George Stephanopoulos' going on the road with Howard Dean on a very special "This Week."

4. The premiere of "K Street" on HBO (nearly as hyped as the Senate shooting lock down and tonight's big party).

5. The state party meetings of the Republicans and Democrats in Kal-ee-forn-ya.

Your The Note (semi) Must-Reads of the day:

1. The Washington Post 's Jim VandeHei on the voting record albatross of Members of Congress running for president (alternate headline: "Why Joe Trippi Smiles.") LINK

2. More on Howard Dean's flexibility. LINK

3. Does anybody but us think what Congressman Burton allegedly said to the Los Angeles Times about Bustamante and Mexico could cause some problems. LINK

4. The New York Times ' David Rosenbaum on the Democrats and tax cuts. LINK

5. USA Today 's Kathy Kiely curtain-raising the (next) return of Bill Clinton, starting tomorrow. LINK

The president (the CURRENT president!) makes three speeches today: to military personnel and families in Fort Stewart, Georgia; to Haley Barbour supporters in Jackson, Mississippi; and to the Power Center's 10th anniversary celebration in Houston. There is no gaggle or briefing today.

Vice President Cheney attends a fundraiser today for North Carolina senate candidate and Congressman Richard Burr in Raleigh, North Carolina.

Former President Clinton, all but two of the announced Democrats running for President, nearly all the major national and Iowa political reporters, the state's powerful Democratic Senator, Tom Harkin, and more than 5,000 Iowans spending their Saturday late afternoon feasting on fried steak in Indianola — get ready for an amazing event.

Governor Dean campaigns in New Hampshire today and he's in Iowa on Saturday for Harkin's steak fry. Watch for the Virtual Steak Fry on the campaign's blog.

Senator Kerry visits Benedict College in Columbia, South Carolina, to talk to students about college affordability for the middle class. He'll be in Iowa on Saturday for Harkin's steak fry and a few other events, including a pancake breakfast with Story County Democrats, a meeting with student leaders, and a reception with Clay County Democrats. He does a couple of more Iowa receptions in Palo Alto and Dickinson counties on Sunday.

Senator Edwards campaigns in Nashville, Tennessee, today. He'll be in Iowa on Saturday for Harkin's steak fry.

Congressman Gephardt is set to give what's billed as a major policy speech in Iowa today. Campaign spokesman Erik Smith tells ABC News campaign reporter Sally Hawkins to be ready for "a provocative announcement about a domestic issue." Read into that one if you will. He's in Iowa on Saturday for Harkin's steak fry.

Senator Lieberman has two fundraisers in Florida today. He's in New Hampshire and Maryland on Saturday. He's back in Manchester, New Hampshire, on Sunday for a town hall meeting.

Senator Graham has a fundraiser breakfast and goes to a fundraiser at a Yankee game in New York today. He's in Iowa on Saturday for the steak fry. He'll also attend a Latin festival in Des Moines on Saturday.

Congressman Kucinich is in Hooksett, New Hampshire, today to meet with labor leaders. He has a couple of events in Ohio on Saturday before heading to Iowa for Harkin's steak fry. He campaigns in Houston, Texas, on Sunday.

Ambassador Moseley Braun keynotes the Chicago Women in Government Relations meeting in Chicago. She's in Iowa on Saturday for Harkin's steak fry.

Reverend Sharpton is in New York City with no public events today. He's in Delaware this weekend.

(Did we mention the steak fry, which we sometimes spell "Steak Fry," with caps, because we are torn … ?)

In the recall: -- The Los Angeles Times Poll shows likely California voters are nearly evenly divided over whether or not to recall their governor, as both parties prepare for weekend conventions.

-- Arnold Schwarzenegger holds a press conference highlighting businesses fleeing from California and holds a town hall forum tonight in San Diego

-- Tom McClintock does some talk radio today and meets and greets at the California Republican convention -- Bill Clinton will kick off a week of high profile Democratic visits to help Governor Davis retain his job.

State Senator Tom McClintock does the Armstrong and Getty radio show this morning. He attends the California Republican Convention dinner banquet tonight in Los Angeles. On Saturday, he attends a recall rally at the Queen Mary and is the featured speaker at the Republican Convention dinner. He has no public events scheduled for Sunday.

ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary: The Steak Fry:

Mmmm … . fried steak. Senator Tom Harkin has convinced his old friend Bill Clinton to come to Iowa this Saturday to give one of his biggest political speeches since he left the White House (scheduled for 45 minutes!!!) in front of the Senator's annual steak fry with his supporters from all over the state on a farm near his hometown of Indianola.

If the weather is nice, we predict the speech will last for a buck 20 minutes.

Because this year's presidential candidates can't say "no" to Harkin either, they are all going to subject themselves to comparison with the master. Each one will speak starting in the late afternoon, with Clinton capping off the day with an early evening address.

While Bill Clinton might want the theme song to this event to be "Don't Stop Thinking About Tomorrow," may we suggest some other titles from Fleetwood Mac's greatest hits that might be more appropriate? LINK

How About "Go Your Own Way"? Or "Say You Love Me," "Second Hand News," "Never Going Back Again," "What Makes You Think You're the One," or (as Ken Mehlman would have it) "Landslide"?

ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary: The Steak Fry, Yepsen special:

His productivity might not be at the level of Army Archerd, but the Des Moines Register 's David Yepsen churns out columns at an awesome clip.

And sometimes, when The Note goes to Iowa, we see Dave hanging out at events on the eve of a column appearance, and we can't figure out when he finds time to bang out the text.

Our suspicion stoked to frenzy level, last night we tried an experiment: We shipped 3 guerrilla Googling monkeys to Des Moines, having led them to believe that there was a box of Maid-Rites LINK on David's desk at the Register, and all they had to do was break in (using that creepy Locust Street entrance), find his desk, rifle through his hard drive for us, and the sandwiches were theirs.

We can't go into any more of the operational details than that, but, suffice to say, if you want to know what Yepsen's column this Sunday about the Steak Fry is going to say, well, here's a special preview:

Indianola — In the war that is Iowa politics, the latest battle is over the Governor's no-show at the 26th annual Harkin Steak Fry. Top Terrace Hill sources say Vilsack's is a two-tiered strategy: distance himself from the Caucus Circus while plotting an endorsement (see below for possible Clinton-as-man-behind-the-curtain story). Harkin aides say this is just the latest effort by Vilsack to avoid his base.

The (Invisible) Primary Pissing Match manifested itself here in all its utter absurdity. There was hardly an attendee that wasn't wearing some kind of sticker, pin or t-shirt with a candidate name on it. Gangs of staff met like the Sharks and Jets, press releases snapping in the air, feet dancing around the issues, while the press acted the part of Officer Krupke, placing bets on first blood.

As for the dog and pony show onstage:
* A history lesson. Forget what you've heard about Mondale or McGovern or even Stevenson. The year was 1872. The Democratic candidate, Horace Greeley, opposed a divisive occupation following a war that redefined the meaning of deficit spending. A popular incumbent who drank heavily in his younger years was in the White House. The Democratic nominee floundered in the general election as his advocacy of high tariffs led him off the cliff of liberal lunacy. The really bad news for the prospective Democratic nominee is that Greeley died three weeks after losing the election.

* Forget what you heard. What does the above prove? That you can draw parallels to anything? Nope. It shows that the caucus is still 4 months away and anything could happen.

* Reading the tobacco leaves. A Clinton speaking engagement provides that we, the media, must divine who the former president is trying to endorse. Of course, conventional wisdom says that Clinton will stay out of a nine-way primary. However, I'm not one to hew to conventional wisdom (well, not today). As far as I'm concerned, Clinton's speech laid it barer than a Lumberyard employee. His message of hope and prosperity will convince many that he's rebuking Dean for running the "I'm mad as hell and not going to take it anymore" campaign. But all I could think was, who's really behind the Dean/Clark ticket?

Which brings us back to the issue at hand. When will the Governor stop playing partisan politics and endorse someone?

ABC 2004: Taste of the Campaign:

Saturday's steak fry event is the perfect culinary preview to ABC News' must-taste party, only 12 days away — the David Westin and Peter Jennings hosted Taste of the Campaign, which The Note will heretofore refer to as the Culinary Clash in the Capital.

At the September 24 fete, where it will be Maple-Powered Howard vs. Bob Graham's Lost Creek Sawdust Pie and the like, in a very special media-driven presidential candidate dessert face-off.

Invited guests should be prepared to vote early, but not often, since this is a one-vote party. Keep you eye on The Note for information on the other contending recipes. And keep your eye on Peter Jennings — he'll be the one announcing the winner.

ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary:

The top of the today's story by one Jim VandeHei of the Washington Post focuses on the backing some of these contending Dems gave the president on Iraq and in Afghanistan, Noting the fact "that these lawmakers voted with Bush on key issues is complicating their bids to win their party's nomination, as fellow Democrats demand explanations. As the campaign progresses, it also could make it harder for them to draw sharp distinctions with Bush on what are shaping up as among the biggest issues of the 2004 campaign, according to political strategists." LINK

To protect or not to protect the middle class tax cuts, that is the question. The New York Times ' David Rosenbaum looks at the issue on which Dems agree and disagree: taxes. All the folks running "call the Bush tax policies irresponsible, but they differ on what to do about them." LINK

For every view of the tax cut, there is an equal and opposite view. Consider Timothy Noah's take in Slate that keeping any of the tax cut is a misguided idea. LINK (Note to Mr. Noah, we are also big fans of Kate Douglas Wiggin!)

"Even if the Bush tax cuts are fully repealed, then, the budget deficit for fiscal year 2004 will still be a not-inconsiderable $301 billion. Given the enormous size of the Bush deficit, there seems little point in presidential candidates John Kerry (LINK) and John Edwards (LINK) proposing that we cancel some of but not all the Bush tax cuts."

Soccer Moms meet NASCAR Dads: The Christian Science Monitor reports "At least two presidential candidates — Senator Bob Graham of Florida and Senator John Edwards of North Carolina — are already launching populist campaigns designed to draw mostly white country boys back to the party of their grandfathers" and goes on to Note that "several NASCAR racers will be the guests of honor at a Graham fundraiser in Loudon, N.H., Friday night, before driver Jon Wood races there this weekend. "LINK

(P.S.: We especially liked the usage of the word "wusses" from one Dave "Mudcat" Saunders!)

Clark:

Wesley, Wesley, he's our man … The New York Times ' Adam Nagourney offers his sketch of the Clark candidacy outline, offering this quote from Mark Fabiani: "You spend any time with him and you realize he is a prestigiously talented person with an extraordinary record. He would be a very potent candidate." LINK

The Washington Post 's Dan Balz dials back some of the "will he or won't he?" frenzy over Clark's possible White House bid. LINK

Note well this Balz paragraph, for it holds the (understated) key to some traits you will Note in the future (and don't let it cause you cognitive dissonance):

"In the interview, Clark denied that John Weaver, a senior strategist for Arizona Senator John McCain's Republican presidential campaign in 2000 and now a Democratic consultant, had been asked to run his campaign but turned down the offer. Weaver later said in a telephone interview that he had done so for health reasons. 'It's no reflection on him,' said Weaver, who met with Clark in New York two weeks ago to discuss a campaign."

In writing up Clark's impending decision over whether or not to run, the Washington Times ' Donald Lambro got Steve Grossman to say the Washington Post got it wrong about all that VP talk. LINK

There's buzzing, there's roiling, there's intrigue … it's making the Googling monkeys crazy. As if they didn't have enough to worry about with all the J.Lo-Ben madness …

Johanna Neuman of the Los Angeles Times writes "political Washington" is abuzz with speculation about a possible Clark candidacy. LINK

Wesley Clark's followers are almost matching Dean's in fervent, Web-based support of their favorite candidate. If only they knew for sure he was going to run. LINK

The AP reports that, according to friends, Clark is likely to become the latest candidate in an already crowded Democratic field. LINK

Paul Bedard of US News & World Report gets Clark supporters to say that talk of a Clark veep nomination is nothing more than a "dirty-tricks campaign pushed by rival Howard Dean who's scared of a Clark candidacy." LINK

Bedard also reports that Clark's "team-in-waiting," in addition to Fabiani, includes Bruce Lindsey and "maybe even" Harold Ickes. "Also, New York Rep. Charles Rangel has pledged to round up endorsements from House and Senate members."

According to the Boston Globe , the Democratic Party is "roiled with speculation" about Clark's likely bid for president. The Globe also reports that Clark is either seeking the presidency or remaining in private life, hinting he will not be anyone's running mate this time around. But he will not rule out a vice president candidacy in the future. LINK

Jonathan Karl writes up the CNN Candidate. LINK

Dean:

Program the TiVo! ABC's George Stephanopoulos gets up close with Dean on the trail this Sunday on the re-launch of "This Week."

Yes, we all knew it was coming. With six you get eggroll and with campaign success, you get scrutiny. Coming back at us from the home of University Mall, the New York Times ' Jodi Wilgoren focuses on the rather rocky road Dean is now traveling in the transition from underdog to big dog, and the "inevitable booby prize" that is heightened attention to his every word. LINK

While the would-be's still want to win the McCain Primary, John Weaver kindly reminds us that there were times when the candidate's "straight talk" led straight to trouble.

(We do remember some rough days for the candidate on the Straight Talk Express … ) And just in time to make it onto the buffet table, Slate's Saletan niftily chronicles the flip and the flop of the Green Mountain State's governor on the issues of the death penalty and Social Security's retirement age, adding some hefty context along the way. LINK

As for the flap over the issue of Israel, The Forward reports that Dean will offer his own letter to the congressional members who wrote to take issue with his recent comments on the Jewish state. Meanwhile, one Rep. Nadler echoes the Dean camp's statement that the letter was the work of those who back other candidates. LINK

The Daily News of the Governor's childhood city takes Dean to task for "throwing Israel over the side" and says "The motor-mouth candidate is frantically backpedaling, changing his tune — which is something he seems to do quite regularly these days. Dean is now pledging eternal fealty to a strong U.S.-Israel relationship. Perhaps it's a little late for that. Perhaps there are concerned Americans who heard him the first time." LINK

We bet Steve Grossman is going to be picking up on this come Sunday. And Israel is just the beginning of the rough stuff for the governor. Gun control is next up, with the AP's Fournier asserting that "nobody seems to be happy with Dean's split-the-middle approach" to the issue.

We'd expect to see more such dissecting in the days — and maybe even hours — to come. As for the budding front-runner's style, the Union Leader profiles Dean's long history of feather-ruffling, with one old political ally Noting "his style is the same; it's just more strident. LINK

As for the man behind the man, the Boston Globe shows readers the inner life of Joe Trippi, who tells the paper that Dean is the candidate he'd been waiting for. LINK

Nice to see McMahon in there too, although he IS getting a bit overexposed. John Kerry's just itching to go after Howard Dean's economic plan, reports the Wall Street Journal 's Jackie Calmes.

"Kerry manager Jim Jordan warns, 'We're not going to let him sidle out of it this easily.'"

From ABC News campaign reporter Marc Ambinder:
Today, Gov. Dean rolls out his mental health care proposals to doctors at a New Hampshire hospital.

Dean is likely to re-affirm his support for encouraging (and, in some instances, requiring) insurance companies to treat most mental illnesses the same way as they treat other, more physical illnesses.

Dean was trained as a doctor in an era when many internal medicine specialists were taught to be skeptical of psychiatry and psychology. His strong support for mental health parity may say something about either the way he was instructed or the way he evolved as a physician.

The next day when the Dean campaign can expect a spontaneous blob of local news coverage across the country is September 20, the "National Dean Visibility Day."

According to the campaign, Chicagoans for Dean will ring across a major highway overpass and wave signs; in Portland, a big Dean contingent will do an AIDS walk; in Philadelphia, Deaniacs will poster and flyer like maniacs. Dean himself will visit a few National Dean Visibility Day events — but not where you'd expect.

Dean also plans an important campaign announcement in Iowa today. The Note wonders: Can you eat steak on the Web? Not to be left out of Saturday's fried-steak festivities, Dean supporters will hold their own virtual steak fry on the campaign's blog Saturday afternoon. Attendees can look forward to a live Webcast and recipe swapping, according to a campaign announcement.

Watch Sunday afternoon for a Dean house party LINK hosted by a Bedford, N.H., couple for Howard-honcho Steve Grossman. Grossman "will talk about Dean's policies on issues such as the economy, health care and the Middle East peace process " at the Winneg home come 4:30 pm, says the Union Leader (but not online!).

Graham:

From ABC News campaign reporter Tarana Harris:
At the Council of Foreign Relations yesterday in New York, Senator Graham answered the question: Are we safer after 9/11? His answer: No.

"While there have been some areas of success, on the whole we are no more secure today than we were on September 11, 2001."

"The world is a safer place without Saddam Hussein in control of Iraq, but elimination has had a series of adverse effects on the United States, only one of which is that it has taken the focus off of the war on terrorism and allowed al — Qaida to regenerate and Hezbollah to go untouched."

According to wire reports, Graham was the only candidate to not take a break from campaigning in observance of the 9/11 anniversary. Deflecting any potential criticism for his schedule he said, "This is a day of special remembrance and mourning for those families that have lost loved ones. I think in the best tradition of using this day as a way to reflect on what we have done to reduce the prospects of another September 11 is a very constructive and appropriate recognition of that pain and suffering."

September 11 has largely defined Graham's candidacy, but he is careful to point out that it wasn't the terrorist attack itself that propelled him to run, but the handling of its aftermath by the Bush Administration. "It wasn't necessarily the event of September 11, but rather the way in which the event of September 11 has been dealt with by this current administration that gave me the passion to run for the president of the United States."

Graham said he sees two clocks running on the Iraqi occupation: the public's increasing intolerance for American casualties and the window of possibility for international cooperation.

When asked about a timetable, Graham said that the most urgent concerns in Iraq can be dealt with in 5 years. On a more fundamental level he said that nobody in the room would live long enough to see full-fledged democratization.

The Miami Herald uses the Zogby Iowa poll to highlight Graham's lack of traction thus far. LINK

These worried quotes from within Camp Graham are certain to cause a campaign wince: '''It makes raising money more difficult when you're not moving up to at least the mid-single digit range to show momentum to the people you're trying to raise money from,' said Ron Book, a lobbyist and former Graham aide who is raising money for the campaign. 'The tempo needs to be accelerated, and the campaign needs to get far more aggressive in swift fashion.'''

And this from consultant David Eichenbaum, who "acknowledged that the late start for the ad blitz could be problematic. 'You generally get up as early as you can, but you do what you can,' he said. 'It's no secret that we don't have as much money as the other candidates.'"

Edwards:

Part three of the Raleigh News & Observer 's series on Senator Edwards' rise examines his life after the death of his son. LINK

Sharpton:

Al Sharpton "will visit Delaware on Sunday, with stops in Dover, Newark and Wilmington," the Wilmington News-Journal reports. LINK

The politics of national security:

The Hartford Courant looks at President Bush's national security bona fides and the prickly marriage between the fate of the war on terror and the president's re-election chances. LINK

"The White House has encouraged the idea that as the war on terrorism goes, so goes Bush … By binding himself to 9/11, though, Bush heightens the risk that he could be the victim of events that stem from it and spiral beyond his control."

And yet, there are Democrats who admit the president isn't in such a bad spot: "'The president's still got a lot of political capital,' said Senator Max Baucus, D-Montana. 'People still like the president.'" Salon's opinion section examines the intersection of security and satire, with some fine quotes from one Mark Katz. (Note: The phrase "flight suit" appears three times, according to our bleary-eyed count.) LINK

The Chicago Tribune's William Neikirk looks at the sea change between the political unity that followed September 11, 2001 and the ongoing and increasing politicization of the war on terror today. LINK

" … now, the gloves are off as lawmakers question the cost of the war in Iraq, the lack of what they see as an exit strategy and increasing numbers of U.S. casualties there. Some lawmakers accuse the White House of undermining a commission on the Sept. 11 attacks because the administration fears that the panel's findings will be damaging."

ABC 2004: Bush-Cheney re-elect, national security:

"Honesty is such a lonely word" sings Michael Kinsley, who chides the administration for failing to 'fess up to the fact that this Iraq effort is going to cost a lot more than anyone expected. LINK

Writes Kinsley, "If spinning involves an indifference to truth, what's going on here looks more like an actual preference for falsehood. The truth would be better politics, and the administration is fanning out to the talk shows to lie anyway."

Krugman is like-minded, but more so. LINK

Does anyone see a pattern here? Al Neuharth thinks Bush has a better shot at re-election if he makes a few simple statements and "eats crow" and admits some mistakes to the U.N. LINK

ABC 2004: Bush-Cheney re-elect:

The Los Angeles Times' Maura Reynolds looks at why President Bush is attending a fund-raiser for a "local community development organization" in Houston tonight.

LINK

Dr. David Hill doesn't think Bush is as vulnerable in the next election as Democrats might lead you to believe. Bush's recent shifts in policy show he's more than capable, and "not above coming around." LINK

California recall:

Michael Finnegan writes up the Los Angeles Times poll for which all the campaigns were anxiously waiting. 50% of likely voters are in favor of recalling Governor Davis, 47% are opposed, and 3% remain undecided. LINK

"California voters are almost evenly split on whether to recall Gov. Gray Davis, and Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante retains a narrow lead over Arnold Schwarzenegger in the tightening race for a successor, according to a new Los Angeles Times poll."

Mr. Finnegan wisely points out that in spite of his leading poll position on question 2, Mr. Bustamante's negative ratings are way up high.

"Still, the poll found troubles emerging for Bustamante as voters learn more about him. His unfavorable rating surged from 29% in the August poll to 50% in the new one. Rivals have been hammering Bustamante for taking more than $3 million in campaign money from Indian tribes that run casinos — and for refusing to distance himself from a Latino student group that critics view as radical."

More Finnegan: "A risk for Davis is that Bustamante supporters — particularly Latinos — will favor the recall to benefit the lieutenant governor. The poll found that might be occurring: 27% of the Latinos who back Bustamante plan to vote yes on the recall. Among all likely voters who back Bustamante, 8% plan to vote yes on the recall."

Does this mean we can expect McClintock-style pressure applied to Mr. Bustamante to withdraw from the race?

Gov. Davis will begin to roll out his "Hollywood walk of fame"-style endorsements. It all starts Sunday, standing side-by-side with President Clinton at an AME church in Los Angeles. Davis campaign sources say Clinton will be followed by the likes of Rev. Jesse Jackson, Senator John Kerry, Senator Bob Graham, and possibly Al Gore.

Remember to keep one eye on the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals today.

The Associated Press reports on the tough questioning faced by lawyers representing the Secretary of State during Thursday's court hearing. A ruling may come early next week. LINK

The Sacramento Bee writes it up in a similar vein. LINK

What an apple-cart upsetter a delay to March would be to all of us!!!!

Fax balloting? A whole new set of confusing opportunities for chaos. LINK

"Much like Tolstoy's maxim about families, every unhappy political campaign is unhappy in its own way. But the California recall had promised to be a little different, something like a velvet revolution in which the masses rise up to overthrow the decrepit system."

"But part of the campaign to replace Davis has descended into partisan bickering, racial pandering and personal slights."

La Opinion says that less than a month out from the recall vote, dozens of voters who participated in a forum about the election process say they continue to have doubts about where to vote and how to pick a candidate come October 7. The League of Women Voters organized the gathering at UCLA Thursday. LINK

California Secretary of State Kevin Shelley, Univision, La Opinion and NALEO, among others, are banding together to educate Latino voters and increase their participation in the recall. Include in the effort: media campaigns, voter guides, a Web push and toll-free voter hotlines. LINK

California recall, the Republicans:

These days Schwarzenegger is spending so much time answering questions, reporters are starting to cry uncle. The new saturate-the-free-media strategy is the handiwork of Mike Murphy, who is playing an increasingly dominant role in the campaign.

Murphy's "let X be X" strategy worked wonders with John McCain and Jeb Bush, and Schwarzenegger's multitude of media appearances has gone a long way towards quieting his critics in the press.

Ron Brownstein reports the RNC and the Bush White House are indeed still keeping their hands off of the California contest. LINK

"In Washington and California, many Republican leaders are growing concerned that even if Gov. Gray Davis is recalled, the Democrats will retain the office if both actor Arnold Schwarzenegger and conservative state Senator Tom McClintock remain in the race, splitting the Republican vote and handing victory to Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante."

"Despite the concerns, the White House and the Republican National Committee have continued to steer clear of any direct effort to force out McClintock, who is running behind Schwarzenegger in the polls, GOP sources say."

(Notes to Ron: nice breaking the news that Stephen Moore is meeting with Arnold this weekend; Grover's pledge is "the" Pledge, not "a" pledge; and Mr. Schwarzenegger has revised and extended his position on vouchers since his initial remarks against.)

The Washington Post says the GOP is worried about McClintock staying in the race, causing fellow Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger the votes.

LINK

It was Dan Burton who called Senator McClintock this week, according to the Los Angeles Times. LINK

The Washington Times looks at what we should expect when Arnold faces the Republican convention this weekend. LINK

The Wall Street Journal has a great article by Jacob Schlesinger looking at whether or not Arnold Schwarzenegger is the perfect antidote to the California Republican party's ills.

"When it comes to policy skills, Arnold Schwarzenegger is no Bill Clinton. But the body-builder-turned-politician has a chance for a political impact similar to that of the Rhodes scholar, veteran governor and two-term president: rescuing his party from fragmentation and extremism."

"The California Republicans Mr. Schwarzenegger seeks to lead are reminiscent of the national Democrats Mr. Clinton took over in 1992: demoralized, disorganized, and shut out of power. While Republicans won big nationwide in last fall's congressional races, they were denied all statewide offices in the Golden State for the first time since 1882. That marked the nadir of a decade-ong civil war between the party's right and center that spilled beyond ideological divisions to bitter personal animosity."

The economy: Economists say things may be looking up for the second half of this year — to the tune of the strongest predicted GDP growth in four years, the Wall Street Journal 's Jon Hilsenrath reports. The forecasts — 4.7% during the third quarter and 4.0% in the fourth, according to a monthly poll of economists by The Wall Street Journal Online — are a marked shift from August predictions, which had estimated 3.6% for the third quarter and 3.8% for the fourth.

But take a deep breath and look at the great big caveat, Hilsenrath Notes. "Economists have forecasted turning points in the past that haven't materialized, and any estimate needs to be viewed with caution. Still, economists say there is mounting evidence that consumer and business spending has accelerated, boosting economic growth."

While consumers seem to be spending their tax refund checks and corporate profits are strong, the job market continues to lag, unemployment claims have risen for the past three weeks, there's uncertainty over whether exports will grow as quickly as imports and the country's overall fiscal health is a question mark.

"Economists at Goldman Sachs are projecting that the upturn in growth will fizzle by the second half of next year, after the wave of tax cuts now hitting the economy have run their course."

Politics:

Texas Dems, welcome home … LINK

Clintons of Chappaqua:

Well that was close. The Wall Street Journal 's Jackie Calmes reports that President Clinton's memoir — and the planned blockbuster fanfare surrounding it — will appear on bookshelves near you in May 2004, after the bulk of the Democratic presidential primary action and before the down-the-stretch frenzy. According to Calmes, at least one campaign was getting a little jittery about being heard above the din.

"'As a party, we've got to get out from under the shadow of these two,'" some anonymous adviser told Calmes.

For those of you keeping score, Calmes Notes that Senator Hillary Clinton's book has sold 1.4 million copies in the U.S.