A new ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll finds significant trouble for the president on domestic issues and the war alike. Disapproval of his work on the economy, jobs, the deficit and health care has spiked to career highs. His request to spend an additional $87 billion on Iraq is unpopular; concern about getting bogged down there has jumped and most say the administration doesn't have a clear plan to deal with it.

Bush's overall job approval rating, at 58 percent, is high but no longer sky-high. His lead over his potential Democratic rivals is still large, but less so than it was last spring. And when he's matched against an unnamed Democrat, independents — the classic swing voter group — divide about evenly, after favoring Bush by 14 points five months ago.

While it's far from a perfect storm, Bush clearly is feeling the weather. His ratings on dealing with terrorism — the wellspring of his support since 9/11 — are still quite high, as are his ratings for leadership. But by a 24-point margin, 61-37 percent, Americans now say the economy is a bigger problem than terrorism, and there he has trouble.

Economy

In terms of perceptions, 52 percent think most Americans are worse off financially now than they were when Bush took office; just nine percent think most people are better off. And six in 10 think large corporations have too much influence in his administration, while as many think people like them have too little influence.

Financial Situation of Most Americans Since Bush Became President
Better Off	9%
Worse Off	52
Same	38

Personal experience is problematic for Bush as well. Three in 10 Americans say they themselves are worse off financially under this president — a level unseen since his father's one-term presidency. More than four in 10 have lost a job, or had a close friend or family member lose one, in the last year. And nearly half are worried about layoffs in their household in the next year, including a quarter who are "very worried."

Overall, 70 percent say the economy is in bad shape, up dramatically from 29 percent when Bush took office; and while 28 percent think it's improving, 31 percent say it's getting worse. While expectations were more negative earlier this year, Bush's approval rating for handling the economy is its lowest since he took office — 42 percent approve, 56 percent disapprove.

Approval

Economic concerns aren't Bush's only problem. Fifty-seven percent disapprove of his handling of the federal budget, another career worst. His disapproval on handling health insurance issues is 61 percent, highest of any issue and also the most of his presidency. On prescription drug benefits, 54 percent disapprove.

Internationally, disapproval of Bush's work on the Israel/Palestinian situation has risen by 10 points since spring. Fifty-three percent approve of his work on international affairs; it was as high as 71 percent a year and a half ago. And on taxes it's 48 percent approval, hardly a rousing endorsement of the Bush tax cuts.

Bush Rating
	Approve	Disapprove
Overall job	58%	40%
U.S. campaign against terrorism	70	27
Homeland security	63	32
Military spending	60	39
Education	56	39
International affairs	53	43
Situation in Iraq	52	46
Environment	51	42
Gun control	51	34
Taxes	48	48
Israel/Palestine	46	43
Campaign finance reform	44	41
Social Security	43	46
Abortion	43	40
Economy	42	56
Creating jobs	39	55
Federal budget	38	57
Prescription drug benefits	35	54
Health insurance	32	61

Bush's approval ratings are better, and more stable, on several other issues. On education, 56 percent approve; on homeland security, 63 percent; on handling the war on terrorism, 70 percent. His overall job approval rating, at 58 percent, is two points away from its lowest since Sept. 11, 2001.

Iraq

Bush has 52 percent approval for handling the situation Iraq, about the same as his 49 percent in an ABCNEWS poll last week — and down from 75 percent April 30, as he was about to declare the main fighting over.

Sixty-one percent say the war was worth fighting, up from 54 percent Sept. 7 — possibly a result of the past week's 9/11 commemorations (especially since two-thirds see the war in Iraq as part of the war on terrorism). And, overall, 71 percent continue to support the current U.S. military presence in Iraq.

Nonetheless, 61 percent oppose Bush's proposal for spending an additional $87 billion on Iraq — opposition that spikes among people who disapprove of his handling of the federal budget. And if Congress does appropriate the $87 billion, a plurality, 41 percent, says it should be financed by eliminating Bush's prized tax cuts. Among other options, 28 percent would cut other spending, and 19 percent would add to the deficit.

Doubt about the Iraq money is linked to broader concern about the federal budget. Among people who approve of Bush's handling of the budget, 66 percent support the $87 billion appropriation. But among those who disapprove of his budget work, 77 percent oppose the expense.

Concerns about Iraq are about more than money. For the first time, a majority of Americans, 53 percent, are "very" concerned the U.S. will get bogged down in a long and costly peacekeeping mission there, up 12 points since last month. (Total concern encompasses 85 percent.) And 55 percent don't think the administration has a clear plan for dealing with the situation.

A majority, 55 percent, continues to term the level of casualties as "unacceptable." Yet a sense of obligation remains: About two-thirds say U.S. forces should stay until civil order is restored, even if casualties continue.

Iraq/Groups

Enormous partisanship in views on Iraq continues. Eighty-five percent of Republicans approve of the way Bush is handling it; just 26 percent of Democrats agree. Nine in 10 Republicans support the current U.S. military presence there; 54 percent of Democrats agree. Just four in 10 Democrats say the war was worth fighting. And three-quarters of Democrats (compared to about one-third of Republicans) call the current level of casualties unacceptable.

Women and blacks (both more apt to be Democrats) are also more skeptical about the war with Iraq. Most women and blacks disapprove of Bush's handling of the situation in Iraq, while most men and whites approve. Nearly half of men but only 29 percent of women support spending an additional $87 billion there. And while men are evenly split on the level of casualties, just 38 percent of women say it's acceptable, six in 10 not.

Only 19 percent of blacks say the level of casualties is acceptable, compared with 46 percent of whites. Indeed just 32 percent of blacks say the war was worth fighting, while two-thirds of whites say so.

Election Issues

The top issue in vote choices in the 2004 election does not do much for Bush: It's the economy (or, "creating jobs"). At the next tier are education, homeland security and terrorism, which work for Bush, and the federal budget and health insurance, which don't.

The primacy of these issues as the campaign heats up should be critical to the election's outcome. And there's plenty of room for movement — fewer than 18 percent cite any of these issues as among the "one of the single most important" in their vote.

2004 Vote Issues — Single Most Important or Very Important
The economy	85%
Creating jobs	85
Education	78
Federal budget	77
War on Terrorism	75
Homeland security	74
Health insurance	74
Situation in Iraq	71
Taxes	67
Social Security	67
Prescription drug benefits	63
International affairs	60
Military spending	59
Environment	49
Abortion	42
Gun control	41
Israel/Palestine	40
Campaign finance reform	25

Bush's personal attributes help fill out the picture. He's best-rated as a strong leader (66 percent); at least six in 10 say he's honest, has a vision for the future and, crucially in the post 9/11 era, has made the country safer; and 55 percent think he "understands complex issues." But just under half think he understands the problems of average Americans or has "brought needed change to Washington."

Vote Preferences

When Bush is matched against an unnamed Democratic opponent, 49 percent of Americans say they'd support him for re-election, 44 percent, the Democrat — and among registered voters, it's 48-45 percent. These compare to a 53-40 percent race in this match-up in late April, when Bush was riding high on the quick fall of Baghdad.

The biggest change has occurred among independents: In April, they favored Bush against the "generic Democrat" by 54-35 percent. Today, it's 43 percent for Bush, 46 percent for the Democrat. (The economy is one key reason. Fifty-nine percent of independents disapprove of the way Bush has handled it.)

While pitting Bush against a generic Democrat isn't a perfect test — voters can imagine an ideal nominee — it does underline his vulnerabilities. Among his weakest constituencies are people with the greatest concern about both the economy and the war.

Those who say the economy's in poor shape would vote for the Democratic candidate over Bush, 74-18 percent. People who aren't as well off as when Bush took office favor the Democrat by a similar margin, while eight in 10 of those who're better off take Bush.

Six in 10 of those who oppose Bush's plan to spend an additional $87 billion on Iraq would vote against him if the election were today, as would about eight in 10 of those who say the war in Iraq wasn't worth fighting.

This poll shows a gender gap and a racial divide as well. Men divide 53-40 percent in Bush's favor, but it's 44-48 percent among women. Fifty-six percent of whites favor Bush, while 85 percent of blacks choose the Democrat.

Real Men

But the generic Democrat is a fantasy candidate; the real nominee will be flesh and blood. And the leading Democratic contenders do less well against Bush, trailing him head-to-head by an average of 16 points, 55-39 percent. It was an average 26 points in April.

Bush vs. Possible Opponents

	9/13	Gap	4/30	Gap
Bush vs. generic Democrat	49-44%	5	53-40%	13
Bush vs. Lieberman	54-40	14	61-34	27
Bush vs. Gephardt	54-39	15	60-35	25
Bush vs. Kerry	54-39	15	60-34	26
Bush vs. Dean	56-36	20	n.a.	n.a.
Bush vs. average	55-39	16	60-34	26

Looking again only at independents, Bush leads by 52-38 percent against Howard Dean, 51-39 percent against Richard Gephardt, 49-41 percent against John Kerry and 48-42 percent against Joseph Lieberman.

Democrats

The nearly identical numbers for the individual Democrats vs. Bush indicate that most voters haven't done much differentiating among them. And indeed just 18 percent of Americans say they're following the campaign "very closely," about what you'd expect this long from Election Day, and far below its likely level later in the race.

For the Democratic nomination, Lieberman has 22 percent support in this poll among Democrats and independents who lean toward the Democratic Party, after a dip this summer. Gephardt, Kerry and Dean have 14 percent support each, with the rest in single digits. It's almost identical among registered voters — but among likely voters, the race bunches up into essentially a four-way dead heat: Dean 20 percent, Lieberman 19, Kerry 19, Gephardt 15.

Top Candidates Among Leaned Democrats
	All	Registered	Likely
Lieberman	22%	21%	19%
Dean	14	15	20
Kerry	14	14	19
Gephardt	14	14	15

There's one notable difference between this poll and others: Just 12 percent of leaned Democrats in this poll have no preference, and it falls to fewer than one percent of likely voters (logical given the question, "if the election were being held today") — compared to an average of more than 20 percent in other recent polls.

Two-thirds of leaned Democrats say they are satisfied with the choice of candidates. But far fewer — nine percent — are "very" satisfied, meaning there's plenty of room to move.

Methodology

This ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Sept. 10-13, 2003, among a random national sample of 1,104 adults, including an oversample of blacks (for a total of 169). The results have a three-point error margin. Fieldwork by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa.

Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.