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Of course it is.

But that bit of received, conceived, and perceived Conventional Wisdom is starting to become THE baseline plot line of this campaign.

The Chattering Class is pretty much in agreement about the dimensions of the 2004 presidential election (with a small minority of the Class aware that politics is fluid and things could change):

1. President Bush is favored to win.

2. President Bush could win in a landslide, or in a close election.

3. None of the Democrats running has emerged yet with a powerful general election message or capacity to compete with Mr. Bush for the hearts and minds of the American people.

4. All three points above aren't worth a warm bucket of spit if the president can't turn the economy around and avoid the one-term fate of not only his father but of the single-termed Adams Family (John Adams and Q).

Although Point 4 would seem to contradict Points 1-3, the Chatterers are fine with the seeming inconsistency

Until the fight over the fate of the president's tax cut is over and done, The Note posits that 2004 politics are mostly on hold.

As we have said before, the Establishment Press is nearly devoid of supply siders, so before we review the current rising action, let us make sure that Brent Bozell, Bernie Goldberg, Chris Lacivita, and Jack Oliver know what they are up against in terms of the media environment in which all this will play out.

Speaking for the wide swath of opinion from Chevy Chase to Westchester, Joe Klein amazingly writes in this week's Time:

"The president('s) … domestic agenda is a joke. There is no program — except for the never-ending quest for unwarranted (and unwanted, if the polls are right) tax cuts and a quietly corrosive effort to undermine existing government rules and regulations. Bush faces rebellion by members of his own party in Congress who are dismayed by the superficial nature of his Administration. 'When was the last time the White House took an active leadership position on anything?' a Senate Republican asked last week, and then answered the question. 'The education bill, two years ago. We get general "principles" but no detailed proposals, no guidance, no leadership.'"

(The Note Notes: we wonder if it was a Senator or simply "a Senate Republican" staffer? And if it was a Senator, we wonder if we can guess which one it was.)

Going up against that, today we have several stories about the administration's strategy and tactics for trying to salvage as big a tax cut as possible; several stories about Sen/Dr/Leader Frist's role in all this; and several stories about how the tax/economy situation fits into the president's re-election plans.

With Senator Grassley dropping a dime on the White House official who he says knew about his $350 billion pledge on "This Week with George Stephanopoulos," with Senator Frist facing some heat; and with the tom toms beating on the tie between political success and passing a tax cut to improve the economy, the game seems to be one of three-dimensional chess for the administration and its allies.

First, sell "the" tax cut.

Second, get the tax cut package (or packages) up from $350 billion to $550 billion, both for the political win and because more tax relief should lead to more robust growth.

Third, figure out a way to shape a downscaled tax package from over $700 billion to the moving target of $350-$550.

The nation's two most widely circulating newspapers have the best stuff on that third key point.

The Wall Street Journal 's Bob Davis breaks news on the front page with an interview with the Secretary of the Treasury, beating a tactical retreat:

"With Congress balking at the size of President Bush's proposed tax cut, Treasury Secretary John Snow suggested he would settle for half the dividend-tax break proposed for this year if Congress agreed to eliminate the tax entirely over the rest of the decade."

"Similarly, instead of slashing the top individual marginal tax rate to 35% this year from 38.6%, as the president has proposed, Mr. Snow said he would consider delaying that rate cut while reducing other income-tax rates this year."

"Mr. Snow's comments, in an interview with The Wall Street Journal , were the first concrete proposals the administration has offered to deal with the setback its $726 billion 10-year tax cut suffered in Congress last week."

And looky what's buried at the end: "Mr. Snow added that White House Budget Director Mitch Daniels is looking for more spending cuts to free funds for tax reduction. Reducing the net cost of the tax cuts by raising revenue in other ways, perhaps by shutting down tax shelters, is another possibility."

Lobbyist alert: watch those shelters.

To the USA Today 's Laurence McQuillan, Senior Administration Officials talked about a slower, piecemeal implementation of tax cuts that won't have the full stimulative effect the White House wants: LINK

"Administration officials will pitch the revised plan to lawmakers when Congress returns from a two-week break next week."

"Key changes to the plan: Instead of the tax cuts being retroactive to Jan. 1, none would kick in until after Bush signed them into law, most likely in June. Instead of eliminating the income tax on stock dividends immediately, the plan would phase the tax out over five years. Instead of increasing the child tax credit from $600 per child to $1,000 immediately, the administration would do so gradually."

"How gradually hasn't been decided, but it would still be faster than current law, under which the credit is to rise to $1,000 in 2010. The plan would allow companies with up to $325,000 in new investment in equipment or facilities to deduct up to $40,000 a year. Current law allows companies with up to $200,000 in investment a $25,000-a-year deduction. Bush originally wanted the changes to take effect immediately; now he is willing to negotiate with Congress on a two- or three-year phase-in."

"The revisions delay the jolt to the economy that Bush has argued is needed immediately. Administration officials said the original plan would have created 1.4 million jobs by the end of next year. They had no estimate for job creation under the revised plan."

Figuring all this out is going to be super fun!!!

See below for all the other Big Casino plot twists.

Meanwhile, the Invisible Primary goes on.

Today, former Senator Gary Hart speaks on security policy at the University of New Mexico. Senator Edwards is in Arizona, and Senator Lieberman has plans in New Hampshire.

Tomorrow is Earth Day. Senator Kerry will campaign in New Hampshire. Senator Lieberman will do an Earth Day event in New York. On Wednesday, Senator Edwards has fundraisers and campaign events scheduled in California.

On Thursday, Karl Rove will attend a fundraiser for North Carolina Senate candidate Richard Burr. Also on Thursday, Howard Dean speaks to the U.S. Conference of Black Mayors in Houston. On Friday, Senator Kerry returns to New Hampshire.

On Sunday, the Michigan State Democratic Central Committee will adopt its caucus date, officially. Howard Dean also plans to be in Iowa this weekend.

The White House Correspondent's Association dinner, with accompanying grand parties, will be held Saturday.

Also this weekend, the National Rifle Association gathers in Orlando for its annual meeting.

Grassley and Frist:

On ABCNEWS' "This Week with George Stephanopoulos," Senator Chuck Grassley insisted that no tax cut plan above $350 billion would pass the Senate without assent from Voinovich or Snowe. And he wasn't giving any ground.

"My word is my word. Without Snowe and Voinovich, we don't have 50 votes."

And he defended the way the news was spread.

"Well, of course they're saying in the House that I didn't consult with them. For three weeks of negotiations, nobody in the House ever talked to me except Bill Thomas, the chairman of the Ways and Means Committee, and he was not involved in the budget conference. I was a conferee. None of them consulted me. They needed a budget. They wouldn't have gotten a budget through the Senate without two more Republicans. If they couldn't provide those two Republican votes and I could, it seems to me I owed it to the American people in the process of creating 1.4 million jobs, through a growth package, job package, that we would be able to do that, and that I should do that."

"And by the way, I told the White House at 10:00 on Friday — that was six hours before we voted on Friday — that I had made this arrangement to get the additional two votes so that the president could have a victory. And if the White House didn't like that, they could have turned it around."

"STEPHANOPOULOS: But who did you call at the White House? Because they are denying that. White House officials told John Cochran that didn't happen, and an administration official told me the same thing."

"GRASSLEY: Yes. The top liaison for the White House is a fellow with the nickname Z. I told Z. Z in turn told me that he told Andy Card and told his boss. And so the top people at the White House knew about this arrangement."

We think it is possible that the Senator couldn't remember, or maybe doesn't even know, Z's full name. But we are here to tell you that Z is Ziad Ojakli, and he is the deputy congressional liaison at the White House, and we can't wait to hear what he has to say about this account.

For the uninitiated: LINK

Per the White House: "Prior to joining the White House team, he served as Chief of Staff for the late Senator Paul Coverdell, Secretary of the Senate Republican Conference. In the past he has worked on both the House and Senate sides for Congressman Mark Souder and former Senator Dan Coats. He is originally from Brooklyn, New York, and received his bachelor's degree from Georgetown University."

The Des Moines Register front-pages their home state Senator's insistence that the cut won't arch above $350 billion. LINK

Bob Novak gives a different chronology in a tour de force time-capsule column that should be on the top of Senator Frist's clip pile when he returns from Asia early this week, or, maybe, Blackberried to him in Asia. LINK

"Traveling through the Orient on his Easter recess, Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist cannot be enjoying himself if he appreciates the intensity of two Republican critics back in Washington: freshman Senator Lindsey Graham and House Majority Whip Roy Blunt."

"They are angrier than they admit on the record about Frist's performance just before Congress took its break. He not only accepted an unacceptable limit on President Bush's tax cut but kept it secret while hurrying out of town two weekends ago. Graham and Blunt make clear to colleagues that this is a major transgression that must be corrected and cannot be repeated … ."

"Incredibly, Frist went along. Doubly incredibly, he did not notify the White House, House GOP leaders or even members of his own Senate leadership. Nobody was informed until Grassley went to the Senate floor the next day, as Congress was about to recess, to reveal the deal. 'At the end of the day,' he declared, 'the tax cut side of the growth package will not exceed $350 billion.' Don Nickles, who as the new Senate Budget Committee chairman was obsessed with passing a budget resolution, vigorously endorsed the limit."

"When the word seeped out about the Senate commitment, Hastert and other House Republicans were furious and complained Frist had betrayed them. Frist's colleagues in the Republican leadership--Majority Whip Mitch McConnell and Conference Chairman Rick Santorum--were nearly as unhappy. Frist did not diminish the animosity when he skipped a bicameral meeting of GOP leaders April 12, though he could have made it before leaving for Asia."

Roll Call 's Kane and Pershing report that Frist is contrite.

"'We blew the call and we're not afraid to admit that,' said Eric Ueland, a senior adviser to Frist. 'We take our relationship with the Speaker seriously. If they have a problem, we have a problem.'"

"Aides to Frist spent the latter part of last week working with top staff to Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) trying to set up a detente meeting between the two leadership teams. Frist, Hastert and House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-Texas) are all expected to attend the meeting, which could come as early as Monday or Tuesday of next week."

The two also note that the Chairman's Mark of the budget bill will probably be released May 5.

Big Casino budget politics:

The New York Times ' Dick Stevenson has this take:

"But Mr. Bush has made it clear that he does not intend to give up on his tax cut without a fight. There is considerable confidence within the administration that the president can use his postwar popularity to force the tax cut back up toward $500 billion or $550 billion … ." LINK

"For the moment, opposition from just two Republicans, Senators George V. Voinovich of Ohio and Olympia J. Snowe of Maine, stands a good chance of forcing Mr. Bush to limit his tax cut to $350 billion."

"Administration officials have dropped hints about cranking up the political pressure on the two senators in their home states, and Mr. Bush is planning to visit Ohio this week, a return to his tactic in previous tax-cut battles of flying in on Air Force One to take his argument to his opponent's turf. Among the possible stops for Mr. Bush is a factory that produces tanks for the Army."

"Such an appearance would give him an opportunity to take another bow with symbols of the nation's military might in the picture and to speak from the commander in chief's platform about his tax-cut plan … ."

"Mr. Bush's aides are also making clear to Senator Bill Frist of Tennessee, the Senate majority leader, who agreed to the deal that would limit the tax cut to $350 billion, that he bears a responsibility to 'make the situation right,' as one administration official put it."

"There are risks for Mr. Bush. The tax-cut fight could divide his own party rather than draw out his differences with Democrats. And given the scale of the effort to recover his tax cut, any failure would undercut his postwar political authority as he prepared to deal with issues like Medicare, never mind his re-election campaign. But one of the lessons he learned from his father is that political capital cannot be banked for a rainy day, and to the degree that Mr. Bush has extra capital now, he seems intent on using it."

The AP out of Ohio looks at the possible trip as another domestic presidential effort to push the tax cut plan in front of a military backdrop. LINK

Poor Mike Allen.

He thought that he could slip his shameless re-write of Friday's outstanding Washington Times story about the administration's tax plan sales scheme into the Saturday paper without the "homage" being Noted. LINK

The Washington Post ed board thinks the president should just take the $350 billion tax cut and call it a win. LINK

The New York Times Timothy Eagan starts on the front page and goes deep and long inside the paper with one of the best pieces anyone has done yet on how the state budget problems are affecting the real lives of real people. LINK

Painful cuts and (sometimes) tax increases are the rule, but, as the president's advisers would say, what will turn all this around is a growing national economy.

David Broder's Sunday column celebrated the work of the moderate Republican Mainstreet Partnership, which seems to make David about as happy as anything going on in our Nation's Capital these days. LINK

Legislative agenda:

It isn't quite Bob Woodward, Paul Begala, and the chicken salad dripping off of Alice Rivlin's chin, but the Washington Post 's Amy Goldstein had a Sunday must-read behind-the-scenes look at how the president's Medicare proposal came together. LINK

Goldstein gets into some of the tactics and strategy that went into the plan's launch.

And she closes with these two stunning graphs:

"As Congress begins to try to fill in such details, the White House has begun to brief lawmakers about the thinking behind its plan. Still, administration officials have not handed over copies of its analyses, even when asked. 'It would be wrong to suggest we are putting forth numbers to Congress,' said an administration official, emphasizing that the White House is deferring to Congress to write full-fledged plans."

"The Energy and Commerce and Ways and Mean committees are collaborating on legislation, and House leaders have predicted a vote by Memorial Day. In the Senate, Republicans on the Senate Finance Committee are meeting as often as several times a week, striving to produce a bill by the end of May so that the Senate can vote in mid-summer."

Meanwhile, the Robert Pear today has a New York Times front-pager on how the Bush Administration is changing the rules of the game regarding picking "winners" among the tiny purple pills within Medicare reimbursement. LINK

The politics of war:

Funny how this section is empty today.

ABC 2004: The May 3 South Carolina Democratic presidential candidate debate:

The Washington Post 's Howie Kurtz writes about the challenges of ABC's upcoming 9-candidate South Carolina debate, to be moderated by George Stephanopoulos. LINK

The Charlotte Observer's Henry Eichel had a Sunday piece on the debate. LINK

He called it "the most high-profile event so far of the 2004 presidential race."

Another game for the kids to get them as jazzed up about the first candidate debate of this presidential cycle as you are.

Match the candidate to the tabloid headline they would draw with a debate performance so bad that it threatens to drive them from the race:

"Howard's End" —— Howard Dean

"Cash and Kerry"——John Edwards

"Say It Isn't So" ——Dick Gephardt

"Case Closed" —— Bob Graham

"The Very Wrong Reverend" ——John Kerry

"See Dick Not Run"—— Dennis Kucinich

"Sun Doesn't Shine on Bob"——Joe Lieberman

"Dennis No Menace"——Carol Moseley Braun

"No Gain, No Braun"—— Al Sharpton

ABC 2004: CREEP:

It must have been the fresh Crawford air that helped Jeff Zeleny clear his head, focus his keen eyes, and produce his must-read on the president's very quiet launching of his re-election campaign. LINK

"The signs of George W. Bush's re-election effort are plentiful here, even though his 2004 presidential campaign technically does not exist." "In the president's adopted hometown, there are banners and baseball hats, T-shirts and towels, all of which are monogrammed with a second Bush term in mind. One specific item unauthorized by the White House and hanging in the window of the Country Style souvenir shop declares: 'Bush 2004--Keep America Rollin.'"

"There are no such outward declarations in Washington, where aides say the mere mention of Bush's political intentions can be a punishable offense within the administration. Inside the Oval Office, the matter of re-election has been even more gravely restricted during the preparation and the prosecution of the war in Iraq." "But as the president adjusts his focus to economic issues, preparing frequent trips to key political states to promote his job creation and tax-cut package, the question of when the 2004 campaign will begin can no longer be so easily ignored. The fundraising operation that yielded a record $101 million in his last election is quietly being organized for activation by early summer with a target of $250 million."

(The Note says: Bush political advisers better start working overtime to try to knock that figure down — the expectations game and all.) "'Everything is in place. Everything has been mapped out, but nothing has been put to paper,' said a senior Republican strategist with ties to the White House. 'All the people are putting their money aside; they just haven't written their checks yet.'"

Zeleny then shifts to previewing campaign strategy and does so by wisely attending a speech delivered by Karl Rove in Houston last week.

"A glimpse of the re-election strategy emerged late last week when the president's most influential political adviser, Karl Rove, said Bush's wartime leadership has been historic and unparalleled. To make his point, he raised a topic rarely mentioned by the White House: the controversial 2000 race against Al Gore." "'The events of the past few weeks have also showed the world what we in Texas have known all along, that George W. Bush is a man of great courage and compassion,' Rove told a Republican audience in Houston. 'I suspect you've had the same thing happen to you: People come up to me in the grocery store in Washington and say, 'I'm thankful your guy won and my guy lost.'" "The re-election plan was so sensitively guarded that during Rove's speech, delivered Thursday evening in a hotel ballroom in Houston to nearly 1,000 people, local GOP officials insisted it was a private event and threatened a reporter with arrest after confiscating a tape recording of Rove's remarks."

Ed Chen did the 43-learning-from-the-mistakes-of-41 thang, with a fashionable "Crawford" dateline in Sunday's Los Angeles Times . LINK

The (smart) gang's all here: Cook, Sabato, Lichtman, Buchanan, and they all agree that a bad economy is bad for Bush's re-election.

The three most original and important paragraphs are these sequential ones:

"In recent days, as he renewed his public emphasis on reviving the economy, the president has focused almost exclusively on his new tax cut initiative as the way to jump-start the economy." "For instance, when asked on April 11 about his domestic priorities, Bush touted the tax cut and mentioned in passing Medicare reform. And in a speech Wednesday in St. Louis, he said 'too many of our fellow Americans are looking for work, and that bothers me.' He then offered his cure: 'It starts with letting you keep more of your money.'" "'Bush seems to feel like if he just pushes ahead with this tax cut plan, that will inoculate him from concerns that he is inattentive to economic problems. There seems to be no other elements to his economic program other than the tax cut,' Cook said."

There's that Klein theme again.

The New York Daily News' Tom DeFrank wrote a Sunday piece anticipating boffo bucks for Bush and describing a precursory CREEP effort that is both cautiously low-key and flagrantly confident. LINK

"President Bush's political handlers are predictably bullish about his 2004 reelection prospects — but just in case, they're planning the most prolific fund-raising blitz in U.S. political history."

"Bush's money managers expect to raise more than $200 million for next year's campaign — double the record-busting $101 million they took in for the 2000 race."

DeFrank tossed in this rather nervy quote: "'We should raise that much because we can,' a senior Bush political operative said, 'because we can always use the money and because there's no political downside for him in doing it'" and Noted that, due to the change in campaign finance law, the pressure is on for those donors who covet labels: it now costs $200,000 to $250,000 to qualify as a "Pioneer" elite fundraiser, rather than the piddling $100,000 of the 2000 era.

DeFrank wrote that, despite the certainty of a Bush-Cheney run for re-election, the team is reluctant to begin the official campaign.

"'The first day he shows up at a fund-raiser for himself is the day the press starts treating him as a candidate and looks at everything he does in a political light,' one Bush adviser explained."

"Nonetheless, Bush can't raise money without a campaign, so Bush insiders expect they'll be able to form a reelection committee and begin aggressively soliciting contributions by June."

"'He's still resisting, but he knows he has to pull the trigger, sooner rather than later,' one confidant told the Daily News."

DeFrank then led the reader on a tantalizing tour "behind the scenes," as Rove and Oliver plotted the future, while the president focused on Iraq.

"Behind the scenes, the campaign has been underway for months, with chief political strategist Karl Rove and Republican National Committee Deputy Chairman Jack Oliver targeting battleground states, mulling a tentative campaign organization and recruiting candidates to run for key Senate races."

"Over the Christmas holidays, Rove gingerly broached the subject with Bush, telling him the fund-raisers needed to get started. Bush said he didn't want to address the issue until spring at the earliest."

DeFrank ended the piece with a quote from a defiant Chris Lehane, who suggested the election will be about money, not, um, money:

"'George Bush can raise as much money as he wants from Big Oil, the pharmaceutical companies or the insurance industry,' Lehane said, 'but at the end of the day, Americans are going to realize that they don't have as much money as they did only a short while ago.'"

ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary:

Washington Post investigative reporter Dan Balz proves he knows a thing or two about nomination politics with a must-read piece on the Democratic 2004 calendar, that reminds us all that LINK

1. John Kerry won the underreported (even by The Note!) Devine Primary.

2. it's not at all clear whom the calendar changes help.

3. the DNC can plausibly argue that this cycle's schedule gets more voters involved, thus teeing them up for the general election.

4. Phoenix is an expensive TV market.

5. Josh Wachs speaks only in crisp iambic pentameter.

Knight Ridder's Diego Ibarguen wrote up the Pew Research Center poll indicating "For the first time since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, the American people are more concerned about the nation's economic woes than about terrorism, war, or Iraq". LINK

The poll of 924 adults, taken April 10-16, found that 41% were most concerned about the economy, unemployment, and the budget, while only 29% were mainly focused on war and terrorism.

In addition, while President Bush's numbers remain high (72%), "that apparently has not translated into solid political support. Nineteen months before the 2004 presidential election, 48 percent of registered voters polled said they would support his reelection, while 34 percent said they would prefer a Democratic candidate."

Also, in a sign that Note readers did not participate in the poll, only 32% could name a Democratic candidate, with Kerry (11%) and Lieberman (8%) doing the best.

More vote-missing hand ringing from the Associated Press: LINK

GEPHARDT

The Los Angeles Times ' Ronald Brownstein has an early look at Representative Gephardt's universal health insurance plan, which the candidate will lay out Wednesday in New York. To Brownstein, it's the most ambitious (and expensive) proposal since President Clinton's failed 1994 attempt, and it could make or break Gephardt's campaign. LINK

"Today, employers who provide health insurance can deduct the cost of their premiums from their federal taxes. That deduction covers about 30% of their premium costs."

"Gephardt would double that: He's planning to propose a tax credit that would reimburse employers for 60% of their health insurance premiums. To protect workers, he would bar employers from forcing employees to pay more of the remaining cost than they pay now."

"To see how this works, consider a firm that now pays 80% of the cost of health insurance (slightly more than the national average) and charges the remaining 20% to its workers. Remember that the existing tax deduction subsidizes that firm for about 30% of its contribution. So under current law, that typical firm now effectively pays 56% of the cost, with government picking up 24% and the employee the final 20%."

"Under Gephardt's plan, the government share would double to 48%, with the firm paying 32%, and the employee still contributing 20%. That's a good deal for employers."

"Firms that don't insure their workers today would get an even better deal. They would have to offer insurance, but they would not be required to contribute any of their own money. For those firms, the tax credit would pay 60% of the total premium and employees would pay the rest. Gephardt would offer limited subsidies to help low-income workers cover that cost."

"About 8 in 10 Americans without health insurance either work or live with someone who does. So, Gephardt figures that the new tax break would reach most of the uninsured. To capture the rest, he would let people 55 and older buy into Medicare, allow working-poor parents into the joint state-federal program that provides health care for their children and offer subsidies for unemployed workers to buy coverage."

Brownstein thinks the plan would reduce the ranks of the uninsured, satisfy Democratic demands to keep employers in charge of providing health care, and provide quality coverage for those it covers.

But: "The price of making the plan palatable to so many interests is that it is extremely expensive. Many outside experts think it would cost about $200 billion a year."

"Gephardt would instantly save $80 billion a year by eliminating the existing tax deduction for health insurance premiums. But to cover the rest of the cost, he likely would have to propose eliminating all the tax rate cuts Bush won in 2001 — almost certainly including those that benefit lower- and middle-income workers."

"Even with such a dramatic step, the proposal doesn't leave Gephardt much left to spend on anything else, such as education or deficit reduction. This is the one big bullet in his gun."

KERRY

It took both Robert Gibbs AND Chris Lehane to explain to the Washington Post 's Dan Balz why Senator Kerry's FEC report has so much missing data on his donors' occupations and employers, and what the campaign plans to do about it. LINK

C'mon now — sometimes this data is hard to come by, but Minyon Moore listed as "INFORMATION REQUESTED" in the occupation slot?

The Boston Globe 's Peter S. Canellos and Susan Milligan wrote a Saturday story about Senator Kerry's litmus test promise, and the resulting debate. LINK

Noting that the all-important early primaries and caucuses are loaded with particularly liberal voters, the Globe duo explained this potentially key issue.

"Three of Kerry's rivals, Senator Joseph I. Lieberman, Representative Dick Gephardt, and former Vermont governor Howard Dean, have said they oppose litmus tests, although all of them insisted they would seek judges whose philosophies were compatible with abortion rights. And Kerry continues to claim his position is not strictly a litmus test, although his campaign manager said this week it would be 'unimaginable' that Kerry would appoint a judge opposed to Roe v. Wade, the Supreme Court ruling that legalized abortion."

Those aforementioned rivals had pretty pointed things to say about the old litmus test argument:

"I can't see how we can be critical of President Bush for applying a litmus test and then apply one of our own,' Lieberman told The Des Moines Register ."

While the Dean camp asserted that the former governor's experience trumps Kerry's paltry senatorial duties:

"Joe Trippi, Dean's campaign manager, said Dean 'has appointed judges; John Kerry hasn't. Anyone who's appointed judges knows that you don't use litmus tests."'

The story suggested that interpretation of Kerry's litmus comments might seem to be a semantics issue, but nonetheless defines differences between the parties, and indicates Kerry's own strategy to secure the nomination:

"To political observers in both parties, Kerry's comments on judicial appointments and his increasingly heated rhetoric against Bush reflect a determination to move to the left for the Democratic primaries. In addition to stepping up his attacks on Bush and touting his support from Kennedy, Kerry also has been harsher in criticizing Dean, who has won support from liberals for opposing the war resolution and Bush's imposition of new federal requirements on public schools. Kerry voted for both bills."

Of course, clarity is often followed by backpeddling.

"Still, the flurry of criticism following Kerry's remarks seems to have prompted a return to the relative safety of the old euphemisms":

"James Jordan, Kerry's campaign manager, said: 'What Senator Kerry was getting at was, for him it would be unimaginable to consider any jurist who did not have a broad and progressive view of privacy,' adding that 'you needn't discuss with specificity hypotheticals with potential jurists to get a sense of their judicial philosophy.'"

Boston Globe columnist Eileen McNamara wrote a Sunday missive about allegedly greedy developers in Massachusetts, one of whom, a James Gordon, is spending Earth Day hosting a fundraiser for Senator John Kerry. LINK

We wonder if the still-obsessed-with-John-Kerry Matt Drudge saw that the Hotline reported last week that Kerry raised more money in Iowa than any of the other candidates for president (despite the Internet gossipist's previous "reporting" on Kerry and Dubuque).

We also wonder who gave Drudge his latest "tip" about the Bay Stater.

EDWARDS

Senator Edwards got himself a Wall Street Journal dot drawing that reminds us of the punch line to his story about when his spouse saw him changing a diaper shortly after he was included in People Magazine's "Sexiest" issue.

The editorial itself keys off the revelations last week about the Senator's fundraising take from trail lawyers, and we get the sense that this will be a pretty regular theme of this page, if Edwards is a successful candidate.

About the only other evidence we can find of anyone picking up on the Washington Post 's fundraising story since last week was this: LINK

The Palm Beach Post tried to get Senator Edwards to expand upon what "culture" means to him:

"People, especially Southerners, want to feel like when they vote, particularly for president, that the person they voted for has a personal connection to them, that they understand their lives, that they'll fight for the things that affect their lives," Edwards told the paper. LINK

The reporters apparently tried, but failed, to get former Edwards aide-cum-Graham-communications-director Steve Jarding to dish.

Campaigning in South Carolina, Edwards said the key to getting Southerners back into the Democratic fold was "respect." LINK

Will Senator John Edwards one day be termed "the spiritual godfather of our nation"?

Perhaps in some errant Nexis search, as "Jonathan Edwards: A Life", reviewed in Sunday's Washington Post , is about the 18th century religious leader, and not the presidential candidate from North Carolina. LINK

At least the Senator may never have to read this about himself:

"And indeed, Jonathan Edwards as a person is not easy to know and, once known, is not easy to like. He had a stiff, brittle, unsociable personality. His opponents and enemies — there were many — thought him arrogant, opinionated, stiff-necked, self-righteous, obstinate and overbearing. He was anti-pluralist, anti-tolerance, anti-moderation, anti-democratic and anti-compromise. His instincts and training encouraged his hierarchical, oligarchical, patriarchal views. He was a 'lightning rod for controversies, jealousies, and bitter resentments.'"

Or this: "'His grandmother was an incorrigible profligate, his great-aunt committed infanticide, and his great-uncle was an ax-murderer.'"

NEW HAMPSHIRE

The Union Leader's John DiStaso craftily crunched some numbers late Friday night to find "Five Democratic Presidential candidates spent $78,230 on salaries and consulting fees to 12 New Hampshire staffers and a local paid consultant between Jan. 1 and March 31." Click here to find out who's dishing out and who's on the take. LINK

Gary Raynor had the results of the New Hampshire Young Republicans and so much more in his Sunday News column. LINK

The AP catches up with governor-turned-senate candidate-turned-educator Jeanne Shaheen, who, wrapping up her fellowship at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government, will next teach a course titled "Governing in a Partisan Environment" at Tufts University in the fall.LINK

Shaheen dismisses the notion of running for office again any time soon (despite acknowledging the excitement and privilege of the governorship).

"'At this point I'm not thinking about running again,'she said. 'I'm enjoying the opportunity not to think about that."'

Shaheen's fellow fellows at Harvard included the New York Times ' Kit Seelye, and for a briefer stint, former Massachusetts governor Jane Swift, who praised Shaheen's efforts ("'I think the students love her,'Swift said. 'She has mastered this medium very well.'")

Shaheen also chooses not to endorse any Democrats for 2004, even though her husband has signed on with Senator Kerry.

"'They're all people who I know personally, who I like, who I think are very well qualified, who have the ability to do the job,' she said. 'I feel a personal connection with all of them. At this point, I'm not ready to make a decision."'

About her unsuccessful race:"'I feel like I worked as hard as I could on the Senate race, that we ran an excellent race, that I accomplished a lot of things as governor that I'm proud of that made a difference for the people of New Hampshire,' she told the Concord Monitor in a recent interview."

And how's this for "no sour grapes" when commenting on opponent John E. Sununu:

"'Well, Sununu hasn't done anything,' she said. 'He's disappeared from the radar screen."'

As for the sweet grapes:

"'My goal here is to have fun, to try to meet people, to try and learn some new things,' she said. 'To try to enjoy what I'm doing and to not look back, to not have regrets about things that have happened in the past."'

IOWA

Your head will spin and you'll need a cyber bookmark if you try to read all the letters attacking Senator Harkin for his "paper tiger" remark in the Sunday Des Moines Register . LINK

DEAN

"Democrats," write the Hartford Courant's David Lightman, "are already wondering if his campaign has peaked, as his and other polls show the party's defining issue is likely to be the economy, not war." LINK

"Dean has built a coalition based on style as well as substance. His backers laud his fearless way of taking on President Bush in both detailed and in pithy, sound-bite-friendly terms."

"But there is a lingering sense among political pros that although Dean is a master of rallying political troops, he lacks the stature and the broad appeal needed to topple George Bush."

The Vermont Press Bureau notices that Dean raised lots of money over the Internet. LINK

LIEBERMAN

The Senator talked tough about Syria, calling for diplomacy, and, if needed, sanctions. LINK

GRAHAM

If you were a betting person, and you were looking for Senator Graham's website to eventually exist somewhere, we'd put our money on THIS SITE

Senator Bob Graham admitted to reporters in New Hampshire that he was a bit rusty on the trail, which led to a weekend's worth of recriminatory, though respectful coverage in the Florida newspapers.

This morning, the St. Pete Times has this:

"Graham aides acknowledge that the senator needs to improve, but they say his weak reviews are a minor — and curable — problem." LINK

"'He needs to answer the question and move on,' said Steve Jarding, the campaign's communications director. 'But all in all, I'm very pleased. This is a guy who is very comfortable with himself."

But the Miami Herald 's Tyler Bridges saw Graham's trip as a harbinger of his campaign style:

"In winning statewide election five times on the way to becoming Florida's most popular politician, Graham has never been a flashy show horse." LINK

"Instead, he has set a goal and methodically worked toward it, obstacles and distractions only momentarily slowing his approach."

"That's the strategy Graham is applying to be chosen as the Democratic candidate to oppose President Bush next year, and it was on display during his first campaign trip last week as a presidential candidate, which ended Friday afternoon in New Hampshire's capital. He didn't speak before any large groups, preferring to initially build his campaign one supporter at a time."

"A central part of his strategy will be taking his 'workdays' program outside of Florida. He believes that the workdays can galvanize voters nationwide behind his campaign just as they did in his first statewide Florida election. In the 1978 race for governor, he went came last in a field of seven by doing 100 daylong jobs, including picking tomatoes, mucking out a horse stable and working with handicapped adults."

KUCINICH

There's a big picture of Dennis Kucinich on the Federal Page of the Washington Post , accompanying an article about outsourcing concerns, which is a populist issue if ever there were one. LINK

The web version is color and cropped differently, and, objectively, more handsome.

Politics:

Stateline.org, which is, as everyone knows, David Broder's favorite website, has good capsules of the Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi gubernatorial races. LINK

Here, Karl: James Hoffa once again warns Democrats not to take them for granted — though we still think The Teamsters will endorse Gephardt. LINK Roll Call 's Chris Cillizza tries to assess the effects of the new campaign finance environment on '04 Senate fundraising. "Although no direct comparisons are available for past cycles, 16 of the 33 Senators running for re-election in the 2002 cycle had raised more than $1 million at the end of June 2001. The 33 incumbents had raised just over $36 million total in that report. The 28 Senators running in 2004, who had filed reports by press time, raised $17.3 million through March."

Stuart Rothenberg wonders whether Atlanta Mayor Shirley Franklin is another Ron Kirk--or something entirely different.

The New York Post 's Deborah Orin observes that some high profile and affluent politicians are refusing to release their tax returns (Senator Clinton, Mayor Bloomberg, and Senator Daschle, whose wife, Linda, Orin Notes, is a lobbyist). LINK

One defense: "'Senators by and large don't release their tax forms. They release their income in the form of personal financial disclosure reports,' said Clinton (D-N.Y.) spokesman Philippe Reines."

The New York Post 's Fredric Dicker reports that Governor Pataki met with Grover Norquist Friday to discuss New York's tax battle, and apparently emerged with an ally and a plan. LINK

"'The governor said he will veto any income-tax increases, an income-tax surcharge or a commuter tax and that he was optimistic about his chances of sustaining the veto,' said Norquist."

"'The governor asked for our support, and we're going to give it. We expect to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars on mailings and radio commercials.'"

The St. Louis Post Dispatch attempts to advance the story of Illinois Senator Fitzgerald's decision not to seek reelection. .LINK

The San Francisco Chronicle's John Wildermuth ponders an intensifying Pete Wilson watch in California. LINK

On Sunday, the State's Lauren Markoe interpreted Senator Fritz Hollings' scant $6,000 take during the last quarter as an indication the 81-year-old may not seek re-election. LINK

The Senator's spokesperson, Andy Davis, said Hollings (who has $900,000 on hand) remains undecided, but is capable of raising, campaigning, and winning regardless of a poor quarterly showing.

Al Kamen has never been so wrong as when he asserts, as he does today, that Terry McAuliffe has no sense of humor, in retelling a story about Jeb Bush and the DNC. LINK

The biggest undercovered political story in America today is remains the fight over gaming profits. LINK

Webby Awards update:

The biggest Note/Webby mystery to date, sure to cause huge swells of free media and (one hopes) votes for The Note: who is Dr. Baranowski of Northern Kentucky University, and what does he have to do with beer and a pro-Note effort? MEET DR. B and NKU STUDENTS SPEAK OUT

Could someone please explain this?

Also, please vote, and ask others to as well. CAST YOUR VOTE FOR THIS SITE HERE

Bush Administration strategy/personality:

Roland Betts biography Elisabeth Bumiller, it turns out, has another Bush tie, which she reveals in writing about the planned May 29 Yale class reunion, which has "received acceptances for the White House picnic dinner for about 600 guests — 300 classmates, plus one guest each, including this reporter, who is married to a member of the class of 1968." LINK

We'll let the end of Robert Bartley's Wall Street Journal column speak for itself (mostly because we have read it twice and we don't have a clue what his point is): "The president's success has confounded his critics. His decision, whatever role Divine Guidance played, clearly was what psychologists call inner-directed. His war cabinet meetings did not include people such as Karl Rove, Karen Hughes or Ari Fleischer. Somehow it's better, I suspect, for a president to talk to God than to talk to pollsters."