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Armed with thoroughly researched historical polling memos that are largely free from spin, the Austin-based numbers cruncher is trotted out every so often when the White House realizes it is time to get ahead of a coming political story that could have negative political consequences for the president.

Is there a more basic lesson in politics than "If you don't get ahead of a story, you might get eaten by the bear, or crushed by the wave, or doomed to suffer the fate of the father"?

The president's pollster has popped up again, with a memo "to" Republican National Committee Chairman Marc Racicot, with a cc: to several hundred thousands of their closest friends and most interested observers.

Follow the basic chronology to date, and then we'll get you to the decision-tree branches that Dowd and his colleagues want to dictate and choose and influence.

In the 50-50 Nation, the president was not all that popular after his post-inaugural honeymoon. As the autumn of his first year in office approached, he faced a budget situation that threatened to drive his poll numbers down.

He then, of course, had a huge upward, sustained spike in popularity after 9/11, which, Dowd has correctly pointed out, had a lot of staying power by historical standards.

But even as the numbers stayed high, Dowd popped up to warn that this President, like all war-time presidents, would eventually start to drop from the polling stratosphere, as Democrats and left-leaning independents began to revert to partisan form, particular as the 2002 election approached.

Dowd's intention was to head off at the pass any press and Democratic talk that Mr. Bush was sinking in some newsworthy way, a dangerous sentiment, since it could create a meta-narrative that would potentially give Democrats momentum.

Now, of course, the president is enjoying another upward spike, fueled by the war against Iraq.

But with their eyes always on the war calendar with "November, 2004" marked with a big red "X," all the president's men and Karen Hughes see the following convergence:

Democratic presidential candidates are going to start rising in name identification; those Democratic and lefty indy voters will start to drift back to their "natural" place; the approach of the election will get some more voters to focus on the bad economy; that new James Carville/DNC e-mail appeal will catch on like wildfire; and, just maybe, one or more of the Democratic candidates will actually start effectively making the case against the president's record.

All of that could lead to (Mr. Dowd persuasively argues "will lead to") a drop in the president's poll numbers, as measured on his own, and in match-ups with some of the Democrats.

So distributed to RNC members and supporters and to the national media, along with a pleasant-as-all-Montana cover Note from Governor Racicot, comes the latest Matt Dowd research, basically predicting that his boss's numbers are going to sink/crater/whatever, and making it plain that this is

a. to be expected

b. nothing to panic about

c. nothing on which to base any television or newspaper stories about the president's re-election prospects

To be fair and clear, Dowd's memo is very good: historically accurate (yes, yes, those of you who are still Democrats can e-mail us your quibbles), breezily written (almost Note-y!), and likely to serve its purpose of softening the blow that will still come.

Democrats tell themselves (and us) all the time that 43 is beatable, but often it sounds like they still aren't sure.

The president remains popular; the national security issue and threshold are tough for most if not all of the Democratic candidates; and the president will have a huge financial advantage to go with the usual benefits of incumbency.

The main measure Democrats will use to psyche themselves up will be the public and private polling data showing the president's numbers falling, and that, in theory, will help them raise money and boost confidence and enthusiasm.

So Dowd's memo is meant to mute the impact as much as possible.

So, without further delay, here are the two "primary documents" — as Dr. Baronowski would call them — the full text of Racicot's intro, and the full text of Mr. Matthew's Opus:

President Bush continues to focus on his agenda of ensuring America's economic, national and homeland security. While the president remains focused on America's priorities, much will be written about his level of support among the American people. Today I received a memo that puts much of the political hyperbole surrounding that support into perspective, I thought it was important to share with you.

President Bush has received unprecedented approval from the American people however, these ratings will settle over time. It is important to note that the inevitable political posturing by Democrats and pundits will ebb and flow based on the rise and fall of some numbers but the leadership and the resolve of this President will always remain.

Sincerely,

Governor Marc Racicot

Chairman,

Republican National Committee

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

April 22, 2003

TO:

Governor Marc Racicot

FR:

Mathew Dowd

Senior Adviser, Republican National Committee

RE:

Prediction: Some Will Say The "Sky is Falling"-- Again.

President Bush sustained a significantly elevated approval rating in the aftermath of his handling of the tragedy surrounding 9/11. Today his approval ratings are again elevated in the aftermath of Operation Iraqi Freedom.

Just as we counseled last spring in the aftermath of 9/11 that the president's approval numbers would begin to settle out in the months leading up to election day 2002, expect the current high approval numbers to drop to a more realistic level. After 9/11 the president's approval rating settled at a slower rate over several months with some pundits and Democrats predicting the "sky is falling" each step of the way. The current approval number should settle out beginning fairly soon and happen much faster this time but you can expect a chorus of the "sky is falling" again.

The main difference between then and now is the Democratic base is solidly against the War in Iraq and therefore the approval rise was never going to be as high as the numbers after 9/11 or as long lasting. Our two most recent Presidents to win re-election provide some historical perspective for the relationship between approval ratings and electoral success. President's Clinton and Reagan were both re-elected by large margins with each having approval ratings in the 50s.

As we get closer to the start of the 2004 Presidential election campaign, the Democratic base vote will continue to solidify. And as President Bush is tested in media polls on head to head ballot questions, it will not be surprising to see the president behind in some polls against potential Democratic candidates and generic Democratic opposition. Every incumbent President in the last 25 years has been behind the opposition in the latter part of his first term- the sky is not falling.

*

Throughout 1983, former President Reagan was behind Walter Mondale by as many as nine points, and against possible opponent John Glenn, Reagan was behind by as much as 17 points in 1983. Even at the beginning of 1984, the polls showed the race between Reagan and Mondale was a statistical dead heat. Reagan won in a landslide carrying 49 states.

*

In 1987 and 1988, Vice President George Bush was behind in generic ballot polls by as many as 15 points, and against Michael Dukakis throughout 1988 Bush was behind by as many as 17 points. It was not until the Republican convention in late summer 1988 that Bush took a small solid lead. Bush went on to win by a fairly good margin in November.

*

In 1995 and early 1996, former Senator Robert Dole was often ahead of Clinton in ballot polling. The Wall Street Journal showed Dole with a two point lead in 1995. And Gallup had Dole with small leads in 1995 and January 1996 Dole had a three point lead over Clinton.

In addition to approval numbers, pundits and Democrats will place an emphasis on re-elect numbers. Again it is important to have an understanding of historical precedent. Throughout 1995 President Clinton's re-elect hardly ever got above 40%. In a Battleground poll in April, 1995, Clinton's re-elect was 21%. The highest point Clinton's re-elect reached in 1995 was 43% in a poll due in December 1995 for Associated Press. In spite of the low re-elect number, President Clinton ending up winning re-election comfortably.

More recently, in 2002, every major statewide candidate with a re-elect of 45% or higher --- won! The average actual result on election day 2002 showed incumbents finishing 5 to 10 points above their re-elect numbers. It is no longer accurate to suggest that a candidate is vulnerable based solely on an incumbent having a re-elect number under 50%.

As the inevitable discussion proceeds in the months ahead, this memo should provide both perspective and a reality check. President Bush's approval numbers will again fall back to more realistic levels fairly quickly, and in head to head polls in the months ahead President Bush will at times likely be behind potential Democrats just as former Vice President Bush and Presidents Clinton and Reagan were going into the election. All were quite successful on election day.

Of course, the recent president who WASN'T re-elected happened to be named "Bush."

Newspaper mentions of 41/43 today: Hitt in the Wall Street Journal , Bumiller in the New York Times , Clymer in the New York Times , and Knight Ridder's Hutcheson.

All this of course, is based on the economy more than anything else, and the major economic news this morning is not good, at least by initial appearances. ABCNEWS' Schindelheim:

"The GDP — the measure of economic growth — for the first 3 months of the year was 1.6% … . weaker than expected. The economists had been expecting growth ranging from 1.8% to 2.4%. The economy grew 1.4% in the last 3 months of 2002."

And those who hope to make hay out of all this are busy and scattered on this last weekend before they all converge on South Carolina next week for the first Democratic presidential debate of the campaign season, and the state party's big meeting.

Today, Senator Kerry makes a whirlwind tour through New Hampshire.

Governor Dean visits Iowa for the umpteenth million time. He'll stay through the weekend.

Senator Edwards will hit New Hampshire on Saturday. He'll munch and meet at the Cheshire Democrats Annual Spaghetti Dinner Saturday evening.

Representative Kucinich and Reverend Sharpton will grace Saturday night's White House Correspondents' Dinner.

Also Saturday, Michigan's Democratic State Central Committee is expected to approve a February caucus date. And former Senator Gary Hart is giving a talk in San Diego.

Sunday, Senator Graham does his big presidential coming out interview on "This Week with George Stephanopoulos."

And this weekend the Woodrow Wilson School at Princeton University presents "The George W. Bush Presidency: An Early Assessment." LINK

If you are a member of the Gang of 500, a lot of your closest friends (and people to whom you say "let's have lunch," without ever meaning it) are going to be there.

The line-up includes a host of leading academics from around the country (but none, apparently, from Harvard, Northwestern or Virginia) as well as an all-star media roundtable discussion featuring Dan Balz, Carl Cannon, Jeanne Cummings, Mike McCurry, and Todd Purdum. Awesome.

The Note bets that the "Congress and the Bush Presidency" session with John Fortier and Norm Ornstein is a keeper.

And don't miss this Bush presidency chronology available on the web. LINK

Print it out. Twice. It will be useful.

And who says they don't know how to party at Princeton?

The Note hopes you have a wonderful, fun, safe, and productive weekend, even if you weren't invited.

Big Casino budget politics:

In her write-up of the president's trip to Ohio, the New York Times ' Elisabeth Bumiller writes with her usual flare for controversy: "But White House officials concede that the final deal could be closer to a $350 billion limit set by the Senate." LINK

She also describes Karl Rove as a "powerful force," who, along with the specter of 41, "propels" the president to think about the economy in the context of re-election, without which, presumably, Mr. Bush wouldn't really focus.

The Washington Post 's Milbank and Weisman take the president's claim that his tax plans are all about "jobs" (two fewer "jobs" than the Commerce Secretary uses), examine the numbers, and challenge some of the figures in a few clever ways. LINK

The Toledo Blade's Fritz Wenzel and James Drew heard the president rally the troops behind the troops when he spoke to the workers at the Lima Army Tank Plant. LINK

Wenzel and Drew also spoke to workers, including one who said, "I'm not an economist, so what the president said sounded good … I'd really like to hear him debate some of the people who disagree with him."

The Cincinnati Enquirer ran Fournier's and Hannah's AP stories. LINK and LINK

The San Francisco Chronicle's Marc Sandalow observes, "In his most extensive public remarks on the economy in nearly six weeks, Bush's buoyant body language projected confidence in the military campaign in Iraq and the coming struggle to enact his domestic proposals." LINK

Sandalow also Notes: "Bush repeatedly portrayed the tax cut Thursday as a jobs program, using the words 'job' and 'jobs' 33 times during a 40-minute speech while insisting that tax dollars saved by businesses would be spent to hire more workers."

Ah, but figuring out what should go in the (new) plan remains on the 1600 to-do list.

Per the Wall Street Journal 's Washington Wire: "Since deficit concerns have led Republican moderates to insist on no more than $350 billion of tax cuts, White House and legislative aides seek to justify more cuts by identifying revenue-raisers such as closing corporate loopholes and ending tax shelters. One fresh idea: new tax-reporting requirements for individuals with income earned abroad."

"Also under review is stiffened tax enforcement, including a proposal in the Bush budget that would allow private collection agencies to help the IRS collect back taxes. But the effort could be offset by a call from Republican Snowe of Maine and Democrat Nelson of Nebraska for $20 billion or more in aid to cash-strapped state and local governments."

"House committee action could get under way as soon as next week."

The economy:

The Washington Post 's Al Kamen got his hand on a Department of Transportation memo, which says "Cabinet Affairs [at the White House] is looking for information on how our programs serve to promote jobs and/or grow the economy and wants it by COB this Friday." LINK

The New York Times ' Adam Clymer has a story that seems to be about the administration's need for Alan Greenspan as a totem of economic stability (and makes one of those messy Paul O'Neill/John Snow comparisons), but can someone explain to us how a paragraph like this next one gets in the paper? LINK

"Stability is certainly a desirable quantity in the economic policy of the Bush administration, and Mr. Greenspan offers that. Besides, it is not as though Republicans had a lot of bench strength in this area; highly respected economic figures who agree with the president that tax cuts and bigger deficits are the elixir the economy needs."

Ari: let us know if you want help in drafting the suggested language for the Editor's Note/Clarification.

Adam: You are only going to make Ari even angrier if you write that O'Neill and Lindsey were fired, when everyone KNOWS they quit.

Senator Santorum:

Ari Fleischer said this morning that the president knows Senator Santorum is "an inclusive man."

Is the Santorum story coming to an end? Chris Mondics and Mario F. Cattabiani team up in today's edition of the Philadelphia Inquirer and report the Senator's leadership post seems safe, but the controversy is far from over.LINK

"For all the uproar over Senator Rick Santorum's remarks comparing gay relations to incest, his leadership post in the Senate appears secure for now."

"Even the handful of moderate Republicans who denounced his comments have stopped short of calling for Santorum to step down as Senate Republican Conference chairman, a post that gives him outsized impact on the Senate agenda."

"But that doesn't mean Santorum is home free. Far from it."

"Some political experts said yesterday that if the criticism from gay-rights groups and Democrats continued, Santorum might become an unwelcome distraction for Republicans as they seek to enact President Bush's tax cuts."

"Such a diversion has the potential not only to undercut Bush's agenda but also to alienate middle-of-the-road Republican voters who may disagree with Santorum's socially conservative views."

Senator Santorum's constituents are not short of opinions on the matter. LINK

The New York Times ' Nagourney and Stolberg take a mini-look at the public life of Senator Santorum. LINK

Herewith, our favorite parts:

Newt Gingrich says: ""It's the old Reagan technique of being amiable and pleasant. Santorum says it very amiably and most people say, 'That's nice,' as opposed to saying, 'That's frightening.'"

Arlen Specter says: ""It depends on how it plays out. Washington is a town filled with cannibals. The cannibals devoured Trent Lott without cause. If the cannibals are after you, you are in deep trouble. It depends on whether the cannibals are hungry. My guess is that it will blow over."

Then, this insight into how the reporters spent their day: "Mr. Santorum has come quite a distance from his early days in the Senate, when he did not appear to fit into the club. Such actions as calling for the ouster of Mark Hatfield, a Republican, as chairman of the Appropriations Committee because he had voted against the balanced-budget amendment, led one former Democratic senator, Bob Kerrey of Nebraska, to use a vulgarity to describe him. That description was repeatedly recalled by Republicans and Democrats today in discussing Mr. Santorum, and Mr. Kerrey said he did not regret making it."

The pair also Notes that Senators Snowe of Maine, Chafee of Rhode Island, and Smith of Oregon all are critical of Santorum's statements.

The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette plays up the comments from the three Senators. LINK

"While Santorum continues to stand by his recent remarks to an Associated Press reporter, several GOP colleagues now are advising him to apologize."

"Republican Sens. Olympia Snowe of Maine and Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island yesterday expressed disappointment with Santorum. Fellow Republican Senator Gordon Smith of Oregon said Santorum's comments were 'hurtful to the gay and lesbian community.'"

"Sources said Republican Sens. John McCain of Arizona and Susan Collins, also of Maine, were privately telling party members that an apology by Santorum would be the best way to defuse the controversy."

The Washington Post 's Alan Cooperman respectfully looks at the life of public Catholic Rick Santorum, and includes this: "On Wednesday, Santorum defended his comments as a legal analysis that repeated the rationale cited by the Supreme Court in upholding a Georgia sodomy law in 1986. Since then, he has avoided the media, and yesterday his press secretary did not return phone calls." LINK

Cooperman also reviews the Daschle versus the bishop, and has a typical and funny Mario Cuomo section.

More than 70 of you sent us detailed e-mails about the Santorum controversy and our commentary about it. For that, we thank you. We read them all, and digested many interesting thoughts.

Dan Savage, a mild-mannered father who writes a filthy, yet quite endearing, syndicated sex column, gets an op-ed in the New York Times to complain about GOP hypocrisy. LINK

Letters galore in the New York Times , some pro, some con. LINK

The Wall Street Journal ed board comes out strong for Rick Santorum and against his critics, and skirts any focus on areas in which its libertarian bent might clash with the Senator's culture warrior status.

ABC 2004: The May 3 South Carolina Democratic presidential candidate debate:

The New Republic's Ryan Lizza says the next Saturday's Collision in Columbia is the "day the new contours of the campaign should start to come into focus." LINK

The Note is asked a lot of the same questions over and over again.

Such as: What's David Ginsberg really like?

And: How much do you miss Mindy Tucker?

Lately, though, one question has risen to the top, in advance of next weekend's first-in-the-nation Democratic presidential candidates debate, produced by ABC News and moderated by George Stephanopoulos:

Where should we eat while we are in Columbia?

Here, courtesy of one of our readers who has done chow-time in the Midlands, are some ideas:

"The upscale and seafood-centric Garibaldi's is in the collegiately-contiguous Five Points neighborhood, while Divino is Italianesque, in a Northern and also upscale sorta way and it's in the Congaree Vista (adjacent to the Statehouse)."

"Little Pigs is a fifteen minute drive out to Alpine Road. Piggie Park — well everybody will see it coming in from the airport, and it's not bad, but 'been there done that.'" (But The Note will break down and go because of the peach cobbler.)

"The local burger chain (with several locations) is Rush's — great chocolate shakes," which pregnant women throughout the region crave.

ABC 2004: CREEP:

Knight Ridder's Ron Hutcheson takes some time to explain why President Bush is not poised to suffer the same fate of his father. LINK

"Bush enters his re-election campaign backed by a unified Republican Party, a highly disciplined political team and realistic expectations of a record-breaking campaign bankroll. Also unlike his father, he doesn't have the baggage of a broken promise on tax cuts, he doesn't have to worry about a Republican challenger from the right such as Pat Buchanan and he doesn't have an ornery Ross Perot threatening to run as an independent."

A showdown in the Keystone State? Pittsburgh is pulling for a presidential debate. LINK

Tempe, Arizona is making a pitch with western appeal to host one too. The venue being proposed begs for some Barry Goldwater comparisons. LINK

The New York Times ed board doesn't seem to like the fact that President Bush has a lot of supporters who plan to give him money to help him get re-elected. LINK

While proposing some seemingly sensible changes to the presidential campaign funding system (many cribbed from a recent Washington Post editorial), they give a sticking-out-like-a-sore-thumb bouquet to Democracy 21, and we bet that that is because the paper got some "help" writing the piece.

We'll buy the whole staff Ben and Jerry's cones on 8th Avenue around the corner if we are wrong.

ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary:

The next big candidate forum might take place on May 17, when the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees hosts 1,000 of its members and the nine presidential candidates in Des Moines, Iowa.

AFSCME says it invited President Bush, but he declined.

We do not need to tell our readers that an AFSCME endorsement is a key "get" for any of the candidates, and AFSCME president Gerald McIntee heads the powerful AFL-CIO political committee, and he has said nice things about John Kerry.

The AP's Sharon Theimer spent a lot of time looking at the "employer" column in the candidates' recent FEC filings. LINK

And it may have nothing to do with either Jon Corzine or Robert Rubin, but Goldman Sachs tops the list.

Gephardt, Sharpton, and Dean spoke to a conference of black mayors in Houston yesterday. Dean managed a Ken Lay reference. LINK

The Houston Chronicle 's Rachel Graves reports on the conference. LINK

Graves Notes: "All three candidates arrived at least half an hour late to the forum, and the chaos of the event included the lights completely going out during Sharpton's speech." Yikes.

GEPHARDT

The Washington Post 's Dan Balz has a total must-read in which he sees Representative Gephardt's health care plan roll-out as a potentially foundation-shaking event for the campaign, whetting the whistles of key chunks of the party base, setting a standard to which other candidates must respond, and drawing a line between his approach to government and the somewhat more austere approaches of Senators Edwards and Lieberman. LINK

"Until this week, Rep. Richard A. Gephardt's candidacy for president was defined largely by his failure to lead House Democrats back to the majority in recent elections and his decision to stand unswervingly with President Bush on the war with Iraq."

"Now, with the unveiling of a large and costly plan to provide near-universal health care coverage, Gephardt … is betting that he can redefine himself and trigger a debate with his rivals over the party's direction that will enhance his appeal to the liberal activists who were offended by his support of Bush's war policies."

For now, since Gephardt's is the only detailed plan out there, his ideas serve as the starting point for a field-wide discussion of insurance coverage.

"The political logic of that approach is obvious to Democratic strategists. They say it is designed directly to appeal to the industrial unions whose workers have health insurance and now may be able to bargain for higher wages because the companies for whom they work would get a big federal subsidy for health care."

"By including a provision in his plan to provide a grant starting at $50 billion a year to state and local governments, meanwhile, Gephardt reassures public employee unions that he has a way to help stop the fiscal hemorrhaging in the states and thereby prevent additional layoffs."

"'I think it's pretty good politics for him,' said a veteran of Al Gore's presidential campaign. 'On the plus side, it gets him back in the game in terms of taking back some of the left that had drifted off to Howard Dean, which is very important for him, and in giving labor a rationale to support him beyond that he's the most protectionist [on trade issues] in the field.'"

"A Democratic strategist with experience in several presidential campaigns said, 'The big criticism of him is that he didn't stand for anything as [House] leader. Well, he has defined himself quite clearly. He hasn't backed off at all from his support on Iraq, and he's now defined himself as someone who wants to fix health care in this country. That's pretty strong definition. Who else has done that?'"

"Gephardt's plan, however, would forfeit Democrats' ability to cast Bush as fiscally irresponsible. It would use every bit of the money now spent on Bush's tax cuts and probably more, which is not attractive to Democrats who say the party must begin to shrink the deficit and help put Social Security and Medicare on sounder fiscal footing. Edwards and another candidate, Senator Joseph I. Lieberman (D-Conn.), have signaled that maintaining the image of Democrats as more fiscally disciplined than Bush is a high priority for 2004."

The New York Times ' Paul Krugman makes the case for Gephardt's tax-increases-for-health-care bargain. LINK

While most Democratic politicians have given up on trying to point out that the administration's clever use of "average" and "percentage of earnings" arguments about the Bush tax cuts mask the absolute cut figures that are the most meaningful, Krugman soldiers on.

The inability of these politicians to make the argument (See "Gore, Al, 2000 campaign.") is truly one of the most inexplicable political phenomena of our time.

PoliticsNH.com's James Pindell says that Erik Greathouse, now chief of staff to Congressman Mike Ross (D-Ark.), will become Gephardt's New Hampshire campaign manager. LINK

EDWARDS

North Carolina GOP lawyer John Hood helpfully tells Nick Baldick how to do his job. LINK

Deep in the shadows of ambiguity, the Wall Street Journal 's Washington Wire reports: "REPUBLICAN AND DEMOCRATIC RIVALS intensify scrutiny of Edwards's presidential fund raising."

"The Arkansas law firm to which the North Carolina senator is returning $10,000 also has lent its airplane for Edwards campaign trips; his campaign paid for its use. Law-firm founder Tab Turner also has donated $189,000 of "soft money" to Edwards's New American Optimists fund."

The Los Angeles Times has a second-day story on the Tab Turner inquiry … no news. LINK

The Raleigh News and Observer's John Wagner reports that Edwards' donor and fellow trial lawyer Turner was unaware that he could not reimburse his employees' donations to the Edwards' campaign, and he only learned about the election law against that practice when the media started to inquire. LINK

Wagner also checks out Edwards' donations to see where his Hollywood money is coming from, and finds that the who's who includes The Note's wife, Morgan Fairchild. Yeah, that's it, that's the ticket.

The Raleigh News and Observer's Rob Christensen was in Winston-Salem Thursday when Karl Rove, or, as Christensen described him, a "balding, bespectacled 52-year-old Texan with a professorial air" came to town to anoint Richard Burr as a Republican candidate for Edwards' Senate seat. LINK

The Charlotte Observer's Jim Morrill quotes Rove as saying that early intervention by the White House in the North Carolina Senate race "is not something you do lightly, but the stakes are high." LINK

Morrill Notes: "For the second time in two years, the White House has hand-picked a Senate candidate in North Carolina. In 2001, Rove helped persuade Elizabeth Dole to run for the seat being vacated by retiring Senator Jesse Helms. Days after she won last November, the White House called Burr."

KERRY

Regarding our question here yesterday about what Senator Kerry's position is regarding the use of personal funds in his campaign, and whether that is linked to how much the president raises, "key" Kerry aide Robert Gibbs tells The Note:

"Senator Kerry has always maintained that he would consider using personal funds if he was the subject of a personal attack."

"As was appropriately 'Note'-d on March 24th, the Washington Post wrote -" "'Kerry said, however, that he could "put a certain amount into it, but when you talk about self-funding, could I do an entire campaign? The answer is profoundly no." Kerry said he has "reserved the right" to use the money to respond to a personal attack, but not to run a major portion of his own bid.'"

"On Tuesday in Boston, Kerry simply re-iterated, in a response to a question about whether he would use personal funds, that he reserved the right to do so if personally attacked."

"Sometimes the phrase 'nothing new' is less a fancy spin strategy and simply, well truly, 'nothing new.'"

Another day, another Manchester Union Leader editorial bashing a Democratic hopeful.

This time, the editorialists' target is Senator Kerry and his views on wealth, Republicans, and the Heinz money. LINK

The Des Moines Register 's Beaumont says Senator Kerry will spend seven May days in Iowa. LINK

E.J. Dionne objects to the newly-minted un-American insult of seeming French, a la Kerry (courtesy of a Bush aide) et Voinovich (courtesy of Le Club for Growth). LINK

GRAHAM

Senator Graham had quite an audience of Washington elites watching him at the Council on Foreign Relations last night. At least some were politicos kicking the tires of a man they have seen around for a while but have never thought of in the presidential context before now.

Apparently, at least one Graham adviser plans to single-handedly change the Council's historic style from Brooks Brothers to Hollywood/GQ.

In any event, Graham said Thursday that "the United States must convince Syrian President Bashar Assad there will be consequences if he does not shut down the camps," the Tallahassee Democrat reports. LINK

"Democratic presidential candidate Bob Graham said Thursday that the United States must pressure Syria to stop Hezbollah from operating terrorist training camps there or make it clear to President Bashar Assad that there will be consequences. Graham, who earlier this month suggested that it might be necessary to throw "a few cruise missiles" into Syria, did not provide specifics on what the consequences would be," writes the AP's Will Lester. LINK

"'My approach to this problem would be to give President Assad an opportunity to eliminate these terrorist training camps in territory controlled by his government,' the Florida senator said in prepared remarks to the Council on Foreign Relations. 'If he fails to act, we should consult with our allies in the global coalition against terrorism — a coalition that needs to be rebuilt after the Iraq war — and decide the next step.'

The Gainesville Sun's Cory Reiss writes that Senator Graham "said Thursday that the Confederate battle flag should not be prominently displayed at the South Carolina capitol." LINK

Representative Katherine Harris, the former Florida Secretary of State, is considering a bid for Senator Bob Graham's seat. LINK

The Des Moines Register 's Beaumont writes that Graham's designated Iowa staffer (and future deputy communications director) was caught off guard by his senior staff's decision to rejigger his visit.

"Kristian Denny, who arrived in Iowa Monday to do press and advance work for Graham, learned of Graham's change in plans Tuesday, after Graham had told the Miami Herald , Orlando Sentinel and Fort Lauderdale Sun-Sentinel that he would make his first campaign visit to Iowa April 28, not May 9 as Denny had been planning." LINK

"Denny said the change came as news to her during a scheduling call at noon on Tuesday and she was scrambling Wednesday to fill Graham's schedule. Her challenge was to get Graham in to meet with Governor Tom Vilsack and Iowa's Democratic House and Senate members amid the flurry of their end-of-session negotiations."

SHARPTON

Reverend Al Sharpton plans to return to Iowa on May 5.

The Wall Street Journal 's Washing Wire says, "Al Sharpton formally announces his 2004 Democratic campaign after a conservative group complains that he hadn't filed donation reports with the Federal Election Commission. Aides say his report for the first three months of 2003 will show receipts of about $100,000."

IOWA

State legislators don't like new rules on emissions from hog confinements, so they're trying to dismantle them, the Des Moines Register reports. LINK

DEAN

Howard Dean's upcoming celebration of the third anniversary of his signing Vermont's civil union law, a possible general election backlash, and, of course, Senator Santorum — all rolled into one Nedra Pickler story for the Associated Press. LINK

CLARK

The Wall Street Journal 's Washington Wire says, "Gen. Wesley Clark continues flirting with a Democratic candidacy, partly through 'Leadership for America' forums across the country."

HART

Roger Simon.com has this to say about former Senator Gary Hart: "Hart has been wallowing in his victimhood ever since. No matter what else he has accomplished, no matter what books he has written, degrees he has gotten, or commissions he has co-chaired, nothing has been enough to satisfy him, nothing has been enough to disabuse him of the notion that the presidency was unfairly snatched away from him, an error of historic proportions that cannot go uncorrected." LINK

"Nobody cares about Hart's adultery any more (few cared about it back then.) It was more a question of his honesty, judgment and raging ego."

"I don't really care if Hart runs again or not. But if he does, he runs a risk: That his fantasy of riding to the rescue of his party and nation will be shattered by the harsh reality that he has nothing new or unique to say and voters could care less about his victimhood. 'If I run for president,' he told the Washington Post last month, 'my biggest fear would be not running a credible race.' Be afraid, Mr. Hart. Be very afraid."

Politics:

It's safe to say that Senator Grassley likes Justice Department whistle-blowers more than former Senator Ashcroft does. LINK

USA Today elaborates upon what we'll call the Grover Norquist Theory Of State Budget Crises, which is that states are none too willing to slow the growth of spending to deal with declining revenues, having dramatically increased spending when accounts were flush. LINK

At the National Rifle Association's annual convention this weekend in Florida, President Charlton Heston will step down, to be replaced by former Iowa State GOP Chairman Kayne Robinson. LINK

The New York Daily News reports on the NRA. LINK

Earlier this week, we printed a long, rather heated contention from a Gore supporter about how greenies weren't a help to Gore. Here's a response from Scott Stoermer, communications director of the League of Conservation Voters:

"Anyone who really knew the Gore campaign surely knew how hard environmental groups worked to elect him. All three groups that could legally endorse candidates — LCV, the Sierra Club, and Friends of the Earth — endorsed Gore."

"In fact, Deb Callahan personally spent the last month of the 2000 campaign flying between Oregon and Florida in an effort to directly address the Nader threat to Gore."

"It's just ridiculous to lump America's 11 million environmentalists in with the Green Party. There isn't a sensible political soul in Washington who believes that. In any case, the environmental community doesn't have the luxury to remain fixated on the past. We're too busy getting ready for what's next — the race for the White House."

"And we'd like to believe that even the most bitter veteran of the last campaign recognizes that working toward a clear victory in November 2004 is much more important than assigning blame for a murky defeat in November 2000."

End quote.

The Note loves the meta-ness of last night's "President's Forum" at Hobart and William Smith Colleges. LINK

Betty Currie, Jake Siewert, Stephen Goodin, and John Harris all found their way to Geneva, New York to lend a helping hand to Hobart's president (and former Clintonista), Mark Gearan.

It may be due to the deadline of the campus weekly, The Herald, but The Note was very disappointed this event did not get the coverage it so clearly deserved.

The New York Daily News has Mayor Bloomberg marrying Rudy Giuliani and Judi Nathan, but not in any way Senator Santorum would condemn. LINK

This weekend on "Here's the Point," AEI's stormin' Norm Ornstein talks about his earliest memories of Lisa Marie Presley.

Granted, that isn't until the final segment, after Norm answers Mark Halperin's questions about budget deficits, the Bush agenda, and why no Democrat has taken hold against this President (although Mr. Ornstein does name a "soft" Democratic frontrunner).

Listen for all of this, right here LINK starting Friday night.

Our favorite Note develop.m.ent of the week: a long-time reader who toils in a corporate environment said he had missed several e-mails from us, and he couldn't figure out why.

Turns out that his company's software filtered out emails with the words "casino" (as in Big) and "homosexuality" (as in Santorum).

Michael Grunwald, who knows more about the Everglades and water and resources in Florida than just about every native, has a New Republic dispatch about the political clout of, yes, Big Sugar, in Florida. LINK

First, he states a key premise of Florida politics: "Politicians don't want to be accused of carrying water for Big Sugar or messing with the Everglades."

"This month, however, Florida Governor Jeb Bush has been accused of both. Big Sugar has unleashed a battalion of 46 lobbyists--including two former Florida House speakers and two former gubernatorial chiefs of staff--to push for a bill in the Florida legislature that would weaken the state's decade-old Everglades cleanup rules. And Jeb's administration, if not quite marching in lockstep with the industry, has certainly provided aid and comfort during the battle."

Webby Awards update:

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Bush Administration strategy/personality:

The New York Daily News' Tom DeFrank writes that James Baker "blasted former House Speaker Newt Gingrich yesterday for trashing Secretary of State Powell's efforts before the Iraq war." LINK

"Gingrich's comments 'were totally inappropriate,' Baker told the Daily News. 'They came from someone with no foreign policy or national security experience, and who was in effect forced to resign.'"

"Gingrich charged Tuesday that Powell presided over 'six months of diplomatic failure' before the war — apparently angering Bush."

Al Kamen writes that Karl Rove gave Gingrich a good talking-to following his "diplomatic failure" remark, resulting in the cowed former speaker skulking away from the lights of television, but taking the spotlight of negativity away from Secretary Powell. LINK

Al Kamen also writes that, according to a website, President Bush may have ties to France of a more royal and vintage nature. LINK

The Toldeo Blade reports that Treasury Secretary and University of Toledo alumnus John Snow will deliver a commencement address to graduating Rockets at his alma mater on May 10. LINK

The New York Daily News' Rush and Molloy write that Jerry Seinfeld, Tony Bennett, and Norah Jones are set up as entertainment for the "Spirit of Israel" event in Washington, D.C. next month, to be attended by President Bush, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, and President Moshe Katsav. LINK