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With his poll numbers buffeted upward through the rallying-around effect from Iraq, the president appears at first glance unbeatable for re-election, and, at second conventional wisdom glance, doomed to suffer his father's fate, losing a second term as a war victor saddled with a weak economy.

With all the focus on 43-destined-to-repeat-the-fate-of-41, the political press has lost sight of the historical and future role of 42.

Without Bill Clinton's uncanny political skills and policy dexterity, Republicans almost certainly would have held the White House in 1992 — even with the chiefs of staff follies, even with Ross Perot, even with the weak economy.

It's been a while since any of you print reporters have written about those regular chats between the 2004 presidential candidates and the Squire of Chappaqua, in which he reminds them that the election is a job interview, and they have to convince the American people to fire the "other guy" and hire them.

So somebody get on that, please.

Beyond Clinton's current views (as told to the candidates directly and to his own posse), the smarter Democratic campaigns are studying the Clinton model for beating the Bushes, and the lessons are pretty clear. And they aren't much different from how George W. Bush beat a quasi-incumbent in GOOD economic times.

1. Secure your party's base through good personal relationships with iconographic leaders (say, a John Lewis or a Ralph Reed).

2. Supplement (1) above with policy support for a positive, upbeat agenda that energizes the base (and appeals to the center).

3. Simultaneously champion some symbolically potent policies that Sister Soulja the same base (say, free trade, welfare reform, and the death penalty, or national education standards and not "balancing our budget on the backs of the poor").

4. In winning your party's nomination, try to outflank the other party's likely nominee on some issues with HIS base.

The Note and others have already written about the Democrats' initial attempts, primarily on homeland security, to limit Republicans' overwhelming edge on national security polling.

But when you get right down to it, given the president's strong bond with the American people on security post-9/11, most observers agree that the question is: If the 2004 presidential election turns on domestic policy issues, will President Bush lose?

(Sporadically) energized Democrats think so.

Others, though, recall '88 and '00, when they felt they had the issues on their side, but were saddled with standard bearers who couldn't quite connect with those "real people" the Chattering Class hears so much about.

One of the most persistent of the political press' bias over the years has been to focus on the gender gap that benefits Democrats (dominating the female vote as the Mommy Party), much more than on the gender gap that benefits the Republicans (owning men as the Daddy Party).

While Republicans are constantly trying in the Racicot Era to figure out ways to appeal more to women, Democrats are always looking to get at the hearts and minds of more men — a real challenge against this President, at this time.

But, on both sides, during war AND peace, there is always the base.

Tomorrow night, in a seminal Invisible Primary event, the Democratic candidates for president will gather on one dais and go hard out for the base.

The Children's Defense Fund may share the same motto as the president's education plan, but that's where the similarities end. The CDF opposed 42's welfare reform bill as too conservative and believes that 43 is waging "war on poor children."

Both Hillary and Bill Clinton have long-standing ties to the group, and recognized early on its substantive and political place in the world of Democratic politics.

It is an article of faith among Democratic operatives that the second George Bush's ability to neutralize their party's traditional advantage with women on education and health care accounts for much of his success. So look for the lady and gentleman hoping to become 44 to advocate for — guess what? — hefty increases in health care, child care, and education.

Big government solutions, but smart ones for sure, and with a heart.

Of course, the RNC (and Mickey Kaus) will be watching closely to see what if anything they say about welfare reform that's popular with the CDF faithful, but not so much with the general public.

While coverage of the war with Iraq continues to dominate the news--and a large amount of campaign discourse--the America's premiere left-of-center children's advocacy group has roped all nine declared Democratic presidential candidates into sitting side-by-side Wednesday night to talk about the welfare of the nation's youngest.

The Children's Defense Fund is influential enough within the Democratic party to get all the candidates in one room, onto the same dais, for the first time this campaign cycle.

Check it out: the event is sold out — but you can still print an Adobe Acrobat flyer! LINK

Beyond the special picture, there is an editorial point that is potentially key. Democratic politicians, and many of their followers, are asking: if there is enough U.S. money to rebuild the schools and health care of Iraq, why not spare some cash for American children?

Expect to hear a lot of that kind of rhetoric from the presidential hopefuls in what amounts to a large joint appearance in which the candidates will sequentially answer questions from four reporters.

For some it will be too early to turn the debate (and TV airtime) over to this question, but many Democrats believe (and hope) that the 2004 campaign ultimately will hinge more on domestic issues than on foreign affairs and national security.

In what is far-and-away the most important purely political piece of the day, and with the power of a slightly hyperbolic lead, the Los Angeles Times ' Ron Brownstein says as much and opens thusly: "Over the last week, it's been difficult to say which has been more dramatic: the gains of the American military in Iraq or the losses in the job market at home … ." LINK

" … the key to the 2004 election may be whether voters put more weight on Bush's performance in protecting the country against foreign threats or his record on managing the domestic economy, many analysts believe … ."

Notice that Brownstein writes all about the Bushes, and mentions Clinton, but the longish piece doesn't include the name of a single Democrat running for president in 2004.

"The younger Bush may be in a stronger position than his father to benefit politically from military success. Most experts in both parties agree that the current war in Iraq may carry more lasting relevance for voters than the Gulf War did, because the new conflict is linked to an ongoing concern about terrorism."

"'The Gulf War was over in the public's mind; it was over in the president's mind; that is not the case here,' said one Republican strategist close to the White House. 'This is of a piece with the war on terrorism and will also have ramifications in the Middle East. That is an important distinction … .'"

"Even as the first President Bush was sliding toward defeat in 1992, he retained huge advantages over Democrat Bill Clinton when voters were asked who could better handle foreign policy; in one Gallup Poll only a month before Clinton's victory, 3 in 4 American respondents said they preferred Bush on international affairs."

"Clinton, though, consistently led Bush when Americans were asked who could better handle the economy … ."

"Still, there are key differences in the political situations of the two Bushes. The key one is that the Gulf War occurred against the backdrop of the end of the Cold War, which enormously increased Americans' sense of security. The current war is taking place in the context of Sept. 11, which created an open-ended sense of insecurity unmatched since the height of the Cold War, most experts believe."

"In that environment, if the war in Iraq ends well, George W. Bush could benefit more than his father from perceived success as commander in chief."

"'Everything depends on whether in reality the war on terrorism is a new Cold War, ongoing, in which the commander in chief role is central and ever-present for the president,' said Democratic pollster Stanley B. Greenberg. Bush and his aides, he added, 'are obviously playing that bet.'"

"The GOP strategist close to the White House said that Bush sees the struggle against terrorism as so central to his presidency that it is a mistake to assume he will follow his father's precedent and de-emphasize security issues after the war."

"'The template [from his father] would be: You won the war, now you make a jolting lurch to domestic policy and downplay foreign policy,' the strategist said. 'I think it would be a mistake to make a radical pivot, and I don't think it is possible because foreign policy issues are going to be dominant.'"

"Already, the son has been much more aggressive than the father in offering a domestic agenda. In that sense, he's less likely to face the charges of lack of interest in the home front that hurt the elder Bush."

So watch closely tomorrow night at the CDF event to see if any of these Democrats has his or her OWN domestic agenda down pat, and how they pivot off of those sure-to-be-with-us national security issues.

CNN's Judy Woodruff will moderate the forum with columnists Juan Williams and Mark Shields and ABC's Michel Martin making up the rest of the panel.

This is not a formal debate. Instead, the candidates will get one-minute opening statements, after which they will be questioned in alphabetical order, with each candidate answering two questions and two follow-up questions overall.

There is also a lightning round in which all the candidates will answer the same question from Ms. Woodruff. The candidates will get closing statements of about one minute each.

There also are a bunch of Note-y questions that smart viewers at home will be asking and then marking down the answers on their IP scorecards:

1. Which candidates know how to push the buttons of the sphinx-like Marian Wright Edelman?

2. Who talks about these Mommy issues in a way that seems "tough" enough to take on an incumbent White House?

3. Are any of them glib enough and passionate enough to convince national political reporters and the audience that it is time to start turning back to domestic issues?

4. Whose performance is strong enough to win points for minority outreach (a big part of the CDF constituency), as well as kudos from the liberal do-gooder crowd, a large portion of whose echo chamber will be on site, and who are key foot soldiers in any campaign?

5. Which candidates will figure out how to work the room when they are not on the stage? (Besides, of course, Howard Dean.)

6. What will the dynamic be like between these nine warriors, as they face each other for the first time since the reshuffling of the first-quarter financial reports?

7. Will Senator Graham, making his first major multi-candidate foray, somehow rise about the crowd?

8. Will Meta-pediatrician, Dr. Dean, step up and dominate the event?

9. Will Al Sharpton shine rhetorically enough to secure some of his (potential) base?

10. Will any candidates NOT mention "Leave No Child Behind" with some cute word play?

11. Which campaigns (and candidates) already know the names of CDF activists from Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Michigan? (As Bill and Hillary Clinton surely would have … )

12. Will the only woman in the crowd get some sort of home field advantage?

13. Will any of the candidates bring their own adorable kids (or spouses) with them?

It's more than 24 hours away, but it's not too early to start gaming this out.

Despite (or, perhaps, because of) their focus, the Children's Defense Fund is one tough group — just ask Tom Downey.

The politics of war:

The New York Times ' Jodi Wilogren (with Adam Nagourney) looks at America's tolerance for causalities in a just war. LINK

The Washington Post 's anti-Cardinal, Dan Morgan, updates the special-interest riders on the military supplemental. LINK

The scholarly E.J. Dionne Jr. runs through the various potential war outcomes and how the Democratic presidential candidates will fare. LINK

Big Casino budget politics:

The AP's Alan Fram updates the budget talks. LINK

The Washington Times ' James Lakely reports that Maine Senator Olympia Snowe is under intense pressure from "Senate Republican leadership and influential House members" to back off her no-wiggle-room support for only $350 billion in tax cuts. LINK

Lakely suggests this budget conference could be more significant than usual because "the narrow Republican majority in the Senate means, essentially, that Mrs. Snowe, Mr. Voinovich and Mr. Chafee have the power by themselves to set the nation's economic agenda if they stick together."

"Conservative Republicans, however, might just dare the Senate to scuttle the budget — something that Mr. Voinovich has called of 'paramount importance.'"

Dana Milbank of the Washington Post makes a point about Title I funding and "No Child Left Behind." LINK

Milbank, by the way, recently explained to a Lieberman-less Yale event how the Post works. LINK

But, Bram, he was joking.

We promise.

ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary:

Why, oh, why is David Yepsen's column not on the Des Moines Register website?

If we weren't writing The Note today from the Suites of 800 Locust with access to the hard copy of the paper, we would have missed this headline: "Edwards has political vaccine for 'McGovernism,'" and the story about how the Democrats are working to avoid the peacenik label.

"As the U.S. victory in Iraq becomes clearer, the danger the Democratic Party will 'McGovernize' itself over the conflict is also diminishing. At least, that's the conclusion from a weekend of campaigning in Iowa by North Carolina Senator John Edwards, a supporter of the war."

El Davo describes what "McGovernism" is and why it's been berry, berry good for Republicans, and talks about Dean, Kucinich, Sharpton, Hart, Moseley Braun, and Gephardt.

The Kerry-Dean rivalry is causing discord. The Boston Globe reports that Stills sings for Kerry, while Crosby and Nash truck for Dean, and the situation is getting sticky. LINK

"Kerry was making his own campaign appearance in Cedar Rapids yesterday, and when he returned to his hotel, he found the hotel driveway blocked by a van bearing a Dean bumper sticker. It was waiting for Nash and Crosby to come out of the lobby."

Said one Kerry wag, "'I guess the fight is to see who can get Young."'

Graham

The national papers ran either briefs or no mention at all of Senator Graham's first-quarter fundraising and his staff moves.

The Washington Post briefed it. LINK

The Florida papers, natch, went biggish.

Even though Senator Graham did little campaigning and fundraising during the first quarter because of 1) his recuperation from heart surgery and 2) his vow to refrain from holding public events while U.S. troops are in combat, the campaign still took in just over $1 million in (according to the campaign) in only 3 weeks-- mainly through phone solicitations in Graham's home state.

So, while lagging behind, the number seems good enough for now for the in-state press.

The St. Petersburg Times' Bill Adair reports on the several Graham campaign staff hires announced Monday, including campaign manager Paul Johnson, who managed Senator Mark Pryor's successful 2002 run, media consultants Karl Struble and David Eichenbaum, and David "Mudcat" Saunders, who will work on rural voters with campaign communications director Steve Jarding. LINK

Adair also reports one observer saying that the Graham fundraising total meets the "cover charge" for a presidential campaign.

The Orlando Sentinel's Mark Silva reports that Graham's first formal fundraising event last Friday took in another $150,000. And while he continues to shore up the ever-important home state, "Graham will start cultivating national contacts next week, with a campaign trip to California." LINK

The South Florida Sun-Sentinel's Rafael Lorente notes that Graham "will begin traveling to New Hampshire and other states to meet potential supporters and raise money" while the war is still going on. Lorente also reports that "Steve Bouchard, a veteran of New Hampshire politics, will head Graham's campaign efforts in the Granite State." LINK

The always observant (and unaligned?) David Axelrod gave his summary of Graham's fundraising total to the Miami Herald 's Tyler Bridges: "[Graham] picked up the low-hanging fruit." LINK

Kerry

Following a week of fending off enraged Republicans, expressing defiance for the sentiment, and back-peddling on the comment itself, the Kerry camp apparently has decided to continue working with the controversy.

The Boston Globe 's Glen Johnson has Senator Kerry feeling his way through the "regime change" debacle and emerging with a "rallying point for Democrats." LINK

"In statements to journalists, and an e-mail sent yesterday to supporters of his campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination, Kerry and his staff have used the occasion to highlight the senator's military record, attack his conservative Republican critics, and raise money."

"'This past week was a busy one on the campaign trail: John Kerry traveled to New Hampshire and Georgia, took on Tom DeLay and Rush Limbaugh, and addressed the New York State Teachers Union in Washington,' the e-mail opened. The campaign said it was a routine, weekly e-mail, but the text of the update wrapped around a box that said, 'You can make a difference for John Kerry's campaign by contributing online.' Beneath those words was a cyberlink to a donation form."

Johnson Notes that the RNC helpfully distributed the e-mail to reporters, with the subject line "'And on to the fund-raising."'

Johnson also writes that Tom DeLay has become the bulls-eye at the heart of the rallying point; to wit, a cute comment by communications director Chris Lehane:

"'There's no question that as you travel around the country there is a desire and need among Democrats to have somebody who will stand up.' Mocking DeLay's ownership of a pest control business before entering Congress two decades ago, Lehane added, 'There's no question that with Democratic voters that the ultimate validation is when you have the exterminator and Rush Limbaugh picking a fight with you."'

Johnson recaps the whole regime change conflict, and quotes Stu Rothenberg, who not only points to Howard Dean's successful strategy of clearly defining his opponents, but deems Kerry's reaction a hustle rather than a plan.

"'Generally, I don't think that it's a good strategy to say stupid things and then figure out how to scramble out of it,"' Rothenberg said. "'They're trying to turn a lemon into lemonade by portraying this as Republicans-vs.-Kerry, or Bush-vs.-Kerry."'

The Boston Herald's Noelle Straub writes that war-related questions from reporters interfered with Senator Kerry's intention to focus on education during a campaign stop at a Cedar Rapids school. <( http://www2.bostonherald.com/news/national/kerr04082003.htm>

Kerry meeted and greeted the under-ten set (hope they tell their parents), then "blasted the White House for pushing massive tax cuts instead of putting more money toward education."

Kerry tried to stick to education, but also talked about security, jobs, the dire international situation, and his support of the "'daring and creative' military effort" in Iraq.

The AP's Mike Glover also reports that Kerry is reminding voters that elections were still held during the Vietnam War. "'This is a democracy,' Kerry said. 'We could be at war a year from now. Would we put the election on hold?'" LINK

The Washington Times ' Donald Lambro finds that some Republicans aren't criticizing Senator Kerry for the specific words of his "regime change" remark, but more specifically for just being critical of the president at all. LINK

But the most biting reprimands in Lambro's piece actually come from Democrats — Senator Edwards calling it a "poor choice of words" and former New York City Mayor Ed Koch predicting Kerry will "end up on the garbage heap."

Paul Krugman defends Kerry's "regime change" rhetoric, and assails RNC chairman Marc Racicot and others who criticized the Massachusetts senator: "For years to come, then, this country may be, in some sense, at war. And all that time, if Mr. Racicot and his party are allowed to set the ground rules, nobody will be allowed to criticize the president or call for his electoral defeat. You know what? If that happens, we will have lost the war, whatever happens on the battlefield." LINK

A test for the opposition research departments of the various Democratic campaigns and the RNC: did you know that Sunday's New York Post letters page was filled with missives regarding Senator Kerry's "regime change" comments? LINK

Edwards

The Raleigh News and Observer's John Wagner reports that, as you read this, Senator Edwards is working on a plan to provide heath insurance to the 40 million Americans without. LINK

Edwards made the promise at a 21st Century Forum breakfast (which overlooked the snow-covered Iowa Cubs field, to the delight of many a reporter).

"'It's not good for anybody to have a pie-in-the-sky plan that has no chance of being enacted into law,' Edwards said during a breakfast with young professionals in Des Moines, Iowa. He later added: 'As we speak, I'm writing a plan.'"

Hey, we can speak and write at the same time, too. And watch TV. And play the piano. And eat.

The Charlotte Observer's Jim Morrill reports that Senator Edwards, while gung ho on the war in Iraq, favors negotiations to resolve the potential crisis in North Korea. LINK

Mr. Glover chased the same angle. LINK

Lieberman

The San Francisco Chronicle's Carla Marinucci and John Wildermuth report that, despite his hawkish Iraq stance and fundraising levels, San Francisco loves Senator Lieberman. LINK

The paper credits the Senator's relaxed charm and famous face for his warm welcome, then does a rapid summation of Lieberman's views:

Not disparaging of Kerry in the face of the "regime change" controversy, yet using the topic to reiterate his own untainted support of the troops and animus towards Saddam; critical of Bush's unilateral bent regarding foreign policy; concerned about Islamic backlash towards America because of the war; sympathetic to gay rights … except for that whole marriage thing.

Lieberman also finds SETI fascinating, and presumably not just because of rich, wacky E.T. enthusiasts.

But it is this paragraph that will make the finance staff get out its Mac to create a new brochure: "Lieberman is a man fully at ease while working his way around a room, with an uncanny ability to win admirers with his warmth — and frequently self- deprecating humor."

We don't want to give anything away, and we have no inside information, but it looks like Senator Lieberman has some pretty dandy endorsements coming up.

Lieberman v. Department of Interior gets a Washington Post brief. LINK

Dean

The Rutland Herald's Tracy Schmaler reports that former Dean deputy chief of staff Robert Rogan has joined the campaign as deputy campaign manager. Native Texan Rogan (a new requirement for prospective presidential advisers?) says Dean has already overcome the hurdle of name recognition and now is making headway in fundraising with a lot of help from the Internet. LINK

"Former Lt. Gov. Donald Beyer said Monday he will be national treasurer for the Democratic presidential campaign of former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean and will not run for Congress." LINK

Iowa

The Des Moines Register ed board sees the economy as still in bad shape, and the Bush tax cuts as anything but an elixir. LINK

Cloning a Javan banteng in central Iowa. LINK

Suzanne Lamothe of Miami, Florida has a letter in the Des Moines Register defending working at Hooters and flight attendants. LINK

New Hampshire

Senator John Sununu, in the Union Leader, on the economy: "'The recession we're in has not been driven by a slowdown in consumer spending. We recorded the recession when business investment dropped very, very sharply … We need to reestablish and re-encourage business investment." LINK

"And the war, he said, is having a bigger impact on the economy than anything 'we are doing at home,' Sununu said."

New Hampshire Governor Craig Benson indicates for the first time he is likely to seek re-election in 2004. His odds are good, as every Granite State governor since 1956 has won at least a second two-year term. LINK

Just in time for the 2007/8 Invisible Primary: The planned completion of the access road linking the F.E. Everett Turnpike in Bedford with the Manchester Airport. LINK

The New Hampshire bishop is under pressure. LINK

Politics:

Senator Norm Coleman took what was one of the most glowing Roll Call stories ever about a Member and turned it into a bit of a controversy over one remark. LINK and LINK

Senator Coleman doesn't have the Fonz's problem saying he is "s-s-s-s-orry," however.

Big Labor still faces a big split over what to do about Ullico, says the New York Times ' Steven Greenhouse. LINK

The New York Times ' Raymond Hernandez reports on the hasty rapprochement between Gov. Pataki and Mayor Bloomberg, following their bitter catfight over federal funds. LINK

The governor gets, ahem, the leftovers of the antiterrorism cash, after New York City is fully reimbursed for security costs.

Hernandez Noted that feuding with the governor certainly does not serve Mayor Bloomberg or his city well, yet pointedly writes:

"As for Mr. Pataki, he was facing mounting criticism from lawmakers and editorial board writers, who accused him of trying to take money the city desperately needed. It was also clear that the many Republican legislators in Washington were seeing things Mr. Bloomberg's way."

Democrats looking for a printed plan for 42's success will have to wait a bit. The New York Post 's Page Six picks up on Matt Drudge's item about both Bill and Hillary Clinton's apparent writer's block, as their pair of title-less, multi-million dollar memoir manuscripts just might be delayed. LINK

Sources from the Clinton and Simon & Schuster camps fall all over themselves to say a) the books are on schedule and brilliant and b) even if they ARE late, the Clintons are very busy people, and the books WILL be brilliant.

A snippy informant from the publishing world, who may have nothing to do with either tome and who probably voted for 41 is also quoted:

"'[Bill] is not as driven as Hillary,' said one publishing source. '[Knopf] is worried he will never actually get around to writing the book — or when he does, he won't be relevant anymore. Hillary is a senator and will probably run for president. Bill does . . . nothing.'"

The august Robert Barnett assures readers of the Post (and hopeful readers of the manuscripts) "'Senator Clinton's book is totally on schedule … All concerned are extremely enthusiastic.'"

A Windy City gossipist is more upbeat on the Senator's book. LINK

The New York Daily News has Texas Gov. Rick Perry attending the wedding of Russell Crowe and Danielle Spencer in Australia, while President Bush sent his good wishes, but was busy elsewhere (!?). LINK

The inimitable Robert Hardt, Jr. is leaving his Post in Room 9 at City Hall and heading to NY1 News as the 24 hour cable channel's Executive Producer for Politics.

The NY Post scribe and NY1 intend to formalize the deal before Bob's star turn this weekend in this year's Inner Circle show.

Hardt has become a political force to be reckoned with in Gotham (ask Carl McCall about those letters) and will continue to be so as he takes over the reins of the real must-see TV, Inside City Hall.

Congratulations to both NY1 and Bob.

Bush Administration strategy/personality:

Two New York Times ' corrections we really liked: LINK

1. "A Public Lives profile on Friday about Roland W. Betts, chairman of Chelsea Piers and a director of the Lower Manhattan Development Corporation, omitted the context for a phrase he used about President Bush, his longtime friend. When Mr. Betts was asked if he had 'his ear' regarding the development of downtown Manhattan, Mr. Betts said, 'Oh, you mean "the big ear."' It is not a nickname he uses for the president."

2. "An article in Business Day yesterday about the influence of Rupert Murdoch on the News Corporation's properties misidentified the Fox News Channel commentator who accused competitors of dwelling on casualties in Iraq and misstated the term he used for them. He was Fred Barnes, not Bill O'Reilly; he called the competitors 'weenies,' not 'liberal weenies.'"

Mary Matalin's appearance in the Torie Clarke profile on Today today, complete with wind-blown retro long hair, was pretty much the highlight of our morning.

Except, of course, for Lisa Marie. LINK