A new ABCNEWS poll found 55 percent approve of President Bush's handling of the confrontation, a less-than-overwhelming endorsement that may reflect his difficulties winning more international support for war, particularly at the U.N. Security Council.
But while Americans would prefer more international support, most say it's not a condition for war. In this poll, 61 percent say U.N. authorization isn't necessary for the United States to act. That rises to 71 percent if some U.S. allies participate. And in the final analysis, 59 percent support war with Iraq, unchanged in the last week.
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| Sampling, data collection and tabulation
for this poll were done by TNS Intersearch. |
With U.S. forces poised to attack on the president's order, this poll puts the question at its most basic: "Would you support or oppose the United States going to war with Iraq?" It finds 59 percent in support, 35 percent opposed. "Strong" supporters outnumber "strong" opponents by about 2-1.
Such results have been stable; an ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll a week ago, in a different question, found the same level of support for Bush administration policy on Iraq.
Is U.N. Authorization Necessary? |
| Necessary | Not Necessary | |
| U.N. Authorization Is: | 35% | 61% | |
| If Allies Participate: | 24% | 71% | |
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While a majority, 59 percent is well short of the 75 percent support for sending ground troops into Afghanistan in fall 2001, and the 69 percent support for attacking Iraq in January 1991, when the United Nations was on board. It's greater, though, than prospective support for the air campaign against Serbia in 1999, 47 percent.
Prime factors in support for war include a presence of threat and an absence of alternatives. In this poll nearly eight in 10 Americans believe Iraq is a threat to the United States, and 71 percent think it's not cooperating with the U.N. inspectors there.
While international cooperation is the preference, threat reduction seems a demand. Among people who see Iraq as a threat, 68 percent support war; among those who think it's not a threat, support for war plummets to 21 percent.
Similarly, support for war is 29 points higher among those who think Iraq is not cooperating with U.N. inspectors than among those who see even partial cooperation.
Support or Oppose War? |
| Support | Oppose | |
| Think Iraq Is a Threat (79%) | 68% | 26% | |
| Think Iraq Is Not a Threat (19%) | 21% | 76% | |
| Think Iraq Is Cooperating (25%) | 39% | 58% | |
| Think Iraq Is Not Cooperating (71%) | 68% | 26% | |
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Stark differences remain among groups, particularly partisan differences: Eighty-six percent of Republicans support war, while 52 percent of Democrats oppose it. The apparent reason is that the Bush administration to some extent has asked the public to take its word. Republicans are predisposed to believe Bush; Democrats, not so.
Bush attains majority support for war because his policy wins more Democrats (46 percent) than it loses Republicans (10 percent); and also because he's (fairly narrowly) persuaded more independents to support attacking Iraq than to oppose it.
Most Americans don't expect either a very short war or a low-casualty one. Fewer than a quarter think a war with Iraq would last a few weeks; a third think it would take several months and nearly four in 10 think it would last a year or more. By 2-1, most foresee a significant number of U.S. military casualties.
Support for war is highest among those who expect a short, low-casualty war. But supporters do outnumber opponents even among those who expect a long conflict or a high-casualty one.
It's broadly assumed that support for war necessarily declines as casualties mount — based in part on a misreading of public opinion on the use of U.S. forces in Somalia (where most of the decline in support actually occurred before the battle of Mogadishu). What seems more critical is not the number of casualties, but the presence or lack of a persuasive rationale for sustaining them — a calculation only unfolding events can direct.
Who Supports, Opposes War? |
| Support | Oppose | |
| All | 59% | 35% | |
| Democrats | 46% | 52% | |
| Independents | 50% | 41% | |
| Republicans | 86% | 10% | |
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What Factors Affect War Support?
Respondents in this poll were asked, in an open-ended question, why they support or oppose war with Iraq. Among those who support war, 40 percent cited a threat — to the United States or the world in general — including a threat of terrorism. A quarter also spoke of a need to remove Saddam Hussein from power.
Among those who oppose it, top answers were a lack of justification, a need for more international support, other problems here at home, and the human cost of war.
This poll included a split-sample test of the basic question on war. Half of respondents were asked the question ABCNEWS has used for months — whether they "favor or oppose having U.S. military forces take action against Iraq to force Saddam Hussein from power." Many other news polls use similar questions.
With the situation now clearer than it was months ago — for example, with more than 230,000 U.S. troops in place — the other half was asked a blunter version: "Would you support or oppose the United States going to war with Iraq?"
As noted, the new version found 59-35 percent support. The other found slightly higher support — 65-30 percent. And "strong" support in the new version was seven points lower, 40 percent compared to 47 percent. There are two likely reasons: The old version is somewhat less explicit ("military action" vs. "war"), and it includes (for many people) a positive rationale — removing Saddam Hussein.
Methodology
This ABCNEWS poll was conducted by telephone March 5-9 among a random national sample of 1,032 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Field work was done by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa.
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