A new ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll finds Bush claiming a 63 percent job approval rating, boosted both by his work on the snarl with China and a letup in fears of impending recession. Some often-repeated criticisms — that he's not up to the job, relies too much on advisers or is more conservative than advertised — gain little credence in the public's mind.
But three months into the job Bush faces a significant challenge in another area: reversing widespread doubt about his devotion to the concerns of average Americans.
Less than half the public, 47 percent, think Bush understands their problems; 51 percent think not. That's a weak rating on this basic measure of empathy; Bill Clinton, at his best, did 18 points better. It's important because good will can provide political cartilage when the going gets rough.
Moreover, Americans by a 34-point margin believe Bush cares more about holding down the size of government than about "providing needed services" — while the public by a nearly identical margin expresses the opposite priority.
Holding down the Providing
size of gov't needed services
What's more important to you? 31% 62
What's more important to Bush? 62 28
Bush also is very broadly seen as more interested in economic growth and oil exploration than in environmental protection, also contrary to the more popular public views. Most now see his tax-cut plan as a boon to the rich. And Americans by 2-1 continue to think he cares more about protecting large corporations than about "ordinary working people."
Strength and Weakness in Numbers
Given this perceived disconnect with the public's concerns, Bush has a less-than-sterling rating for personal leadership: Fifty-three percent call him a strong leader, a quality on which he consistently scored much higher — in the 60s and even 70s — during the campaign.
Nonetheless, 64 percent have a favorable impression of Bush "as a person" (more than double Clinton's low point). Nearly two-thirds say Bush "can be trusted in a crisis" and nearly seven in 10 call him a good commander in chief of the military. He's well-rated for honesty (62 percent), and drift is not a problem for this president; 68 percent say he's got "a vision for the future."
Bush's personal qualities: Yes No
Is a good commander in chief 69% 26
Has a vision for the future 68 30
Can be trusted in a crisis 65 32
Is honest and trustworthy 62 32
Is a strong leader 53 42
Understands your problems 47 51
Highs and Lows
Beyond his overall job approval rating, Bush has 67 percent approval for handling relations with China; 62 percent for international affairs more broadly; and 60 percent approval for his handling of education, a top-of-the-list public concern.
His ratings are a bit lower, but still mostly positive, on the economy and taxes. But they fall under half, to 47 percent approval, on environmental issues. That's a problem for Bush, not least because the public gives the environment higher priority than a tax cut.
Bush's approval ratings: Approve Disapprove
Overall job 63% 32
Relations with China 67 27
International affairs 62 31
Education 60 28
Economy 55 38
Tax cuts 54 39
Environmental issues 47 41
Warning Track
The economy is the biggest current threat to Bush; absent war, presidential approval rises and falls on the public's experience of economic conditions. So perhaps the best news for him is that the number of Americans who think a recession is coming has eased to 45 percent, down from 58 percent last month. The Federal Reserve's surprise cut in interest rates last week may have helped.
Think a recession is coming?
Yes No
4/22 45% 50
3/25 58 37
At the same time, economic views remain far less sanguine than they were when Bush took office. In mid-January, 70 percent of Americans said the economy was in good shape; today just 50 percent say so. And there's another cloud gathering: Sixty-four percent think the country's heading into an energy crisis.
Public Trade-Offs
Economic and energy concerns approach, but haven't trumped, environmental ones. Fifty-two percent say protecting the environment is more important than encouraging economic growth; 54 percent say it's more important than finding new oil and natural gas. As noted, views of Bush's priorities are very different.
Environmental Economic
protection growth
What's more important to you? 52% 44
What's more important to Bush? 13 78
On several specific initiatives, public opinion runs counter to the Bush administration's approach. Fifty-nine percent of Americans oppose building more nuclear power plants — lower than the level of opposition 15 years ago, but still a sizable majority. Fifty-five percent oppose oil and gas drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska. And in a separate ABCNEWS poll last week, 61 percent supported joining the Kyoto treaty on global warming, which Bush has opposed on economic grounds.
Cutting Issue
Tax cuts aren't unpopular, and Bush gets some credit for raising the issue, as his 54 percent approval rating for "handling the issue of taxes" attests. But it remains a lower-tier public priority, and Bush's cheerleading on the issue hasn't much to show.
While 61 percent say taxes should receive a high priority in Congress, that places it seventh on a list of 10 issues tested — behind, among others, the environment, at 71 percent.
Additionally, just 20 percent say a tax cut should be the first place to spend the surplus; the rest pick other priorities, including spending on domestic programs such as education and health care (36 percent), Social Security (24 percent) and reducing the federal debt (18 percent). These numbers haven't budged in months.
Indeed what little movement exists on this issue has been away from Bush, not toward him: A majority, 53 percent, now thinks his tax plan would mainly benefit the wealthy, up a bit from 47 percent two months ago.
High priority Highest
for Bush, Congress priority
Economy 92% 44%
Education 86 46
Health care 86 40
Social Security 84 39
Prescription drugs 80 37
Environment 71 29
Tax cut 61 27
Military upgrade 57 20
Campaign finance 42 15
Reducing partisanship 40 11
Legitimacy and Mandate
Bush has inched ahead on the first critical challenge of his presidency, establishing his legitimacy: Sixty-two percent see him as legitimately elected, compared to 55 percent after he prevailed in the U.S. Supreme Court on the contested Florida vote.
Yet there's also majority desire for Bush to compromise with the Democrats in Congress. Just 35 percent say he has a mandate to carry out the agenda he presented during the campaign; 60 percent instead say he should compromise on the things the Democrats strongly oppose. That support for compromise is up from 52 percent in January.
Most, 54 percent, think Bush has not reduced the partisanship in Washington, something he called for during the campaign. At the same time, as the list above shows, it's not a high priority item for most Americans.
Better Than Expected
All told, 39 percent of Americans say Bush is doing a better job than they expected, 21 percent worse — ratings that are almost identical to Clinton's early in his first term. And, as noted, some of the most common criticisms of Bush don't gain much traction at all:
 Sixty-three percent say they're confident he has "the experience and ability needed to meet the challenges of the presidency." (Though just half of them are "very confident.")
Only 20 percent say Bush "relies on his advisers too much."
And 31 percent say Bush's views are "too conservative," no different than it was during the presidential campaign.
Cheney Riding High
Bush's No. 2 gets an overall job rating as good as his own. A total of 64 percent approve of the way Dick Cheney is doing his job. And 58 percent approve of the way Congress is doing its work, much better than usual for this often reviled institution (indeed its best in the ABC/Post poll, which hasn't checked in on Congress since October 1999).
With members of Congress returning to Washington this week, the Democrats have a slight edge over the Republicans in public trust to handle the nation's main problems, 47 percent to 40 percent. On specific issues the divisions are mostly traditional: A Democratic edge on education and a larger advantage on Social Security, a Republican advantage on taxes, and a split in trust to handle the economy.
Trust to handle: Democrats Republicans
Main problems 47% 40
Economy 47 43
Education 48 40
Social Security 52 35
Taxes 38 52
Methodology
This ABCNEWS/Washington Post
Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our
Poll Vault.
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