Nonetheless, the issues of Iraq and terrorism remain powerful ones for the president's party as the midterm elections approach. A new ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll finds that among likely voters, Republicans hold a 31-point lead in trust to handle Iraq, and an 18-point advantage on terrorism. Democrats lead, but by much narrower margins, on the economy and top domestic issues.
In this latest poll, 61 percent of Americans support attacking Iraq to oust Saddam Hussein. That's eased a bit from 68 percent after Bush addressed the United Nations on Sept. 12, but it's still up from late August.
That support remains conditional. As has been the case for months, support for attacking Iraq is substantially lower 46 percent in this poll if U.S. allies are opposed. Support consistently has been lower still if ousting Saddam required a high-casualty ground war.
At the same time, support for attacking Iraq grows, to 77 percent, if Baghdad admits but then interferes with U.N. weapons inspectors. And Americans overwhelmingly (79 percent) believe that Iraq in fact does not intend to cooperate with those inspectors. Indeed, antipathy toward Saddam is so broad that two-thirds say the United States should continue to try to oust him even if he does cooperate fully with U.N. inspectors.
The recent political sniping on Iraq is informed by election politics. Iraq and terrorism are two issues of prime importance to voters in the November midterm election, sharing the top tier with the economy and jobs, education and health care. And just as dealing with terrorism has been the wellspring of Bush's support the last year, so it is with his party more broadly.
 Trust to Handle the Issues: Likely Voters  |
| Issues | Democrats | Republicans | |
| Iraq | 30% | 61% | |
| The War on Terrorism | 34% | 52% | |
| Education | 47% | 43% | |
| The Economy | 50% | 41% | |
| Health Care | 49% | 39% | |
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Among likely voters in this poll, Republicans lead Democrats by a 2-1 margin in trust to handle the situation with Iraq, 61 percent to 30 percent. And in handling terrorism more broadly, Republicans lead by 52 percent to 34 percent.
Democrats lead by smaller margins in the other top-tier issues by 10 points on health care, nine points on the economy and four points on education. And they have double-digit leads on Social Security and prescription drugs. (The public blames the Republicans over the Democrats for the failure of prescription drug legislation, by 45 percent to 26 percent).
More broadly, the Republicans hold a slight edge among likely voters in trust to handle "the main problems the nation faces over the next few years," 49 percent to 42 percent. (Among the general population, the Republicans get 46 percent on this question, their best, albeit by a single point, in polls since 1991; the Democrats get 39 percent, their worst, also by a point, since 1994.)
The Democrats gain back some ground, however, from a preference to have Congress controlled by their party, to keep a check on Bush, rather than by the Republicans, to help support his agenda. Among likely voters, 51 percent say Democratic control is preferable, while 42 percent prefer Republican control.
The net effect of these competing concerns is roughly an even split in vote preference: Among those most interested in voting, 49 percent say they favor the Democrat in their congressional district, 47 percent, the Republican. This is a rough gauge only, but it puts the two parties at loggerheads exactly where they've been in the last three elections. (In 2000 the national House vote was 48 percent to 48 percent; in 1998, 47 percent to 48 percent; and in 1996, 48 percent to 48 percent.)
It's noteworthy that the Democrats' best issues the environment, Social Security and prescription drugs are second-tier in voter concerns; and also that the Republicans continue to hold them to nearly an even match on education an issue on which Bush has focused, to meaningful political gain.
The upshot of the current list of voter concerns and preferences is much the same as in an ABC/Post poll in mid-July: As reported at the time, the greater the focus is on terrorism, the better for the Republicans; the greater it is on domestic issues (excepting, significantly, education) the better for the Democrats.
As for Bush, 58 percent approve of his handling of the situation with Iraq; again this has cooled from 65 percent in mid-September, but remains a bit better than its level in late August (52 percent).
The change reflects the increased politicization of the issue. Support for the way Bush is handling the situation remains huge 80 percent among Republicans and independents who lean toward the Republican Party. But it dives among leaned Democrats, to just 36 percent. (There's a similar division in support for attacking Iraq: It stands at 78 percent among leaned Republicans, but falls to 47 percent among leaned Democrats.)
Will Bush Move to War Too Fast?
In terms of speed, 52 percent of Americans are more concerned that Bush will move too quickly to take military action against Iraq; 40 percent are more concerned he'll move too slowly. There's a political division here, as well; 66 percent of leaned Democrats are more concerned he'll move too fast; that falls to 40 percent of leaned Republicans.
While Republicans are more apt to express concern that Bush will move too slowly, it's noteworthy huge overall support in this group that four in 10 of them think he may move too fast.
 Bush's Approval Ratings  |
| Issues | Approve | Disapprove | |
| Terrorism | 70% | 28% | |
| Overall Job | 67% | 30% | |
| Education | 61% | 32% | |
| Iraq/Saddam | 58% | 39% | |
| The Economy | 51% | 47% | |
| Environment | 49% | 40% | |
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Bush's overall job approval rating in this poll is 67 percent, its lowest since the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001 (it was 69 percent in July and September polls), but still high by any standard. Seventy percent continue to approve of his handling the campaign against terrorism, and 73 percent say it's going well (though fewer, 15 percent, say it's going "very" well). This continues to be the prime source of Bush's overall job approval.
He gets 61 percent approval for his handling of education, and, as noted, 58 percent on Iraq. But his approval ratings slide to 51 percent on the economy; 49 percent on the environment; 47 percent on corporate fraud (down from 55 percent in July); 42 percent on Social Security; and a dismal 29 percent on prescription drugs (down from 35 percent in July).
Reflecting these ratings, 61 percent say Bush has been spending the right amount of time on terrorism; but 58 percent say he's spending too little time on domestic issues, and 53 percent say the same on the economy.
One question of interest in Washington is the possible effect of a vote on a resolution authorizing Bush to attack Iraq. Among likely voters, 21 percent say they'd be more apt to vote to re-elect a member of Congress who voted against that resolution. But more 38 percent say they'd be less likely to support such a member.
Has Bush Politicized Iraq War?
On another issue at the nexus of Iraq and politics, the public, by 59 percent to 35 percent, rejects the notion that Bush is trying to use the Iraq situation to help Republican candidates in the November elections (among likely voters it's about the same, 60 percent to 37 percent). It's a partisan view: Fifty-two percent of leaned Democrats ascribe to this "wag the dog" theory; only 17 percent of leaned Republicans agree. (Even among leaned Democrats, a sizable four in 10 doubt the notion.)
But there is a connection between Iraq, political views and patriotism, a theme in many political ads this season. People who call themselves "extremely" proud to be an American are more apt to ally themselves with the Republican Party, more apt to favor Republican candidates, and also much more apt to support attacking Iraq.
In a possible reflection of distaste for the recent sniping in Congress, the institution's approval rating has slipped to 51 percent in this poll, its lowest since just before Sept. 11, 2001 (45 percent on Sept. 9).
Congressional approval is lower, just 44 percent, among likely voters, who tend to be more tuned in to politics. Then again, it was vastly worse, just 18 percent positive, the month before the 1994 midterm elections, when the Republicans took control of Congress amidst a wave of public dissatisfaction, mostly economic in nature.
And people continue to give far higher ratings to their own representative: Sixty-four percent approval, compared to 49 percent in October 1994.
More Americans say the country is off on the wrong track, 53 percent, than say it's headed in the right direction, 43 percent. Again, though, this is a far cry from dreary October 1994, when this gauge was 69 percent negative.
This question seems mainly to reflect an amalgam of political partisanship and economic views. Adherents of the president's party are much more apt to respond to it positively, as are those who say the economy's good. People who favor the out-party, and those who see a weak economy, are much more apt to respond negatively.
Specifically, leaned Republicans say the country's headed in the right direction by 62 percent to 34 percent, while leaned Democrats say it's on the wrong track by 70 percent to 28 percent. Those who say the economy's in good shape are positive about the country's direction by 67 percent to 30 percent. But those who say the economy is "not-so-good" are negative about it by 56 percent by 40 percent, and those who say the economy is "poor" are negative by a huge 83 percent to 15 percent.
Views of the economy are weak: Just 31 percent say it's in excellent or good shape, in line with recent results of the weekly ABCNEWS/Money magazine poll.
As noted, Bush gets only 51 percent approval for handling the economy, and 65 percent say the government should be doing more to try to improve it.
Nonetheless, Bush and the political parties alike escape most of the direct blame for the economy's troubles. Thirteen percent say Bush is mostly responsible, and fewer name either party; many more blame the Sept. 11 attacks (29 percent) or the normal business cycle (21 percent).
What matters more to people, terrorism or the economy? The question in some ways is an unreal choice; testing them independently shows that both are very important to sizable (and roughly equal) majorities of the public. People have multiple concerns, and these are very different in nature.
But the choices do cut to vote. Likely voters divide about evenly on which they see as a bigger problem 46 percent say terrorism, 50 percent the economy. Among those who cite terrorism, 63 percent support Republicans for Congress; among those who say the economy, 69 percent support Democrats.
A similar question added Iraq to the equation, and the choices again were close: Thirty-seven percent said the economy is the bigger problem, 31 percent Iraq, 30 percent terrorism.
Methodology
This ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Sept. 23-26 among a random national sample of 1,003 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Field work was done by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa.
Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our PollVault.

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