Ordinarily a weak economy hurts the incumbent and his party, and consumer confidence today is its worst since 1994, when midterm voters hammered the Democrats. But the times are extraordinary.
Boosted by his response to terrorism, President Bush holds a 67 percent job approval rating, the latest ABCNEWS poll shows. That's the best of any postwar president at his first midterm election.
Bush's ratings, and the sense of national purpose since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, mean that voter anger is notably absent in this election. And while Democrats hold a lead on social issues, the voters' competing concerns have prevented them from seizing the out-of-power party's customary advantage on economic discontent.
These dynamics have been largely stable all summer. But as they play out in the campaign's final days, one important factor has changed: voter interest. The share of registered voters who're following the campaign "very" or "somewhat" closely was 51 percent last July, 58 percent a month ago, and it's up to 66 percent today.
Public Divided on Nation’s Higher Priority
The public divides evenly on what should be the nation's higher priority, Iraq (Bush's focus, endorsed by more than six in 10 pro-Republican likely voters) or the economy (the Democrats' focus, endorsed by a similar number of their supporters). Specifically in terms of vote choices, there's a similar split: While 32 percent of likely voters say the economy and jobs are the single most important issue in their vote, 36 percent cite terrorism or Iraq as the top issue.
Financially, a third of Americans say they're worse off today than they were two years ago, outnumbering those who say they're better off. And consumer confidence as measured in the weekly ABCNEWS/Money magazine poll is its lowest since January 1994, down sharply this year, and especially in the past month.
But most likely voters (60 percent) simply don't directly blame Bush for the economic problems. And while 39 percent do give him some blame, just 22 percent say he deserves "a great deal" of blame — a largely partisan view held disproportionately by Democrats.
As such, the Democratic Party has been unable to gain traction on the economy as a voting issue. And the Democrats' usual advantages on health care, Social Security and prescription drug benefits are countered by huge Republican margins in trust to handle terrorism and Saddam Hussein.
The importance issues receive is fueled in part by the apprehension they cause, and this in particular shows the clout of terrorism and potential international conflict. About as many likely voters are "very worried" about terrorism as about the economy or the stock market. And nearly twice as many are very worried about efforts by Iraq to develop nuclear weapons.
Likely voters pick any number of issues as "very important"; forcing a single choice is somewhat artificial. But when they are asked to select the "single most important issue" out of the list, the results lead to a similar conclusion: The economy and terrorism or Iraq share center stage, with neither dominating it.
Democrats, Republicans Differ in Top Issues
There are partisan differences. Democrats pick the economy and jobs as their top issue by a 12-point margin over terrorism or Iraq. Republicans pick terrorism or Iraq by a 15-point margin. Independents, the classic swing voters, pick terrorism or Iraq over the economy, by a nine-point margin.
Combining the last four issues on the list — education, health care, Social Security and prescription drugs — clarifies the picture even more. Just over a third of voters pick terrorism or Iraq as the top issue, and on these, the Republicans prevail. Just under a third pick social issues, on which the Democrats are stronger. And the last third pick the economy, on which the parties are essentially even.
Similarly telling are the vote preferences among the overlapping groups of people who cite various issues as "very important" in their vote. Among those who cite terrorism or Iraq as very important, Republican candidates have a nine- to 11-point lead. Among those who cite the social issues as "very important," the Democrats lead by double digits. And among those who cite the economy, it's a close race.
Preferred Candidate?
These competing interests produce a continued dead heat in vote preferences. Among likely voters, 49 percent prefer the Republican candidate in their House district, 47 percent the Democrat. While this is a rough gauge only, it shows the same even split in national House vote that's marked the last three elections.
Also important is the public's view of the way the federal government is working — and here again, positive views of the nation's response to war on terrorism appear to be countering negatives on the economy. Half of Americans are satisfied with the way the government's working, half dissatisfied — not as positive as last winter, but vastly better than in October 1994, when 73 percent were dissatisfied.
Anger is in especially short supply: Just 7 percent of Americans now say they're angry at the way the government is working. By contrast it was 20 percent or more across most of 1992, 1993 and 1994, in the long-running aftermath of the 1990-91 recession.
While congressional preferences have been essentially a dead heat for months, there are some changes that can make a difference. The number of likely voters calling the economy and jobs "very important" in their choice advanced to 77 percent in this poll, from 70 percent in late September. That arguably could assist the Democrats if they're able to make a case on the issue in the campaign's closing days.
But on the other side of the ledger, this poll finds an increase in trust in the Republicans to handle terrorism — nine points higher now than in late September. As such these two trends may be countervailing.
Bush Approval Rating High
As noted, Bush's overall job approval rating is a high 67 percent, and higher still, 74 percent, specifically for his handling of terrorism. It's lower than that but still a majority, 57 percent, for his handling of the situation with Iraq; and 51 percent for his work on the economy.
In one sign of potential trouble for Bush's popularity, just 51 percent say he understands the problems of average Americans, down from 57 percent last summer and possibly a sign of the economic unhappiness many Americans express.
Nonetheless, Bush clearly is more a help than a hindrance to his party this year. Among likely voters who are independents &0151; again, swing voters — 29 percent say one reason for their House vote will be to express support for Bush; substantially fewer, 13 percent, say it'll be to show their opposition to him.
Control of Congress looks to be more of a wash; two-thirds of likely voters call it "very important" in their vote. But their vote preferences are essentially the same as others'.
Methodology
This ABCNEWS poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 24-27 among a random national sample of 1,211 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Field work was done by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa.
Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our PollVault.
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