Poll: Americans Want Diplomatic Solution in N. Korea; Iraq Still Seen as Bigger Threat
Analysis By Gary Langer
Jan. 7
— Eight in 10 Americans say the United States should try to block North Korea from developing nuclear weapons, an ABCNEWS.com poll has found. But unlike views on Iraq, diplomatic and economic approaches win far more support than a military confrontation.
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Concerns about both countries are high. But Americans by a 20-point margin — 55 percent to 35 percent — see Iraq as a bigger threat to the United States.
In dealing with Pyongyang, 70 percent in this ABCNEWS.com poll support a diplomatic effort offering U.S. economic aid in exchange for cessation of North Korea's nuclear weapons program. And two-thirds say they'd support an effort to punish North Korea with an international economic embargo unless it gives up its nuclear program.
But support for military action is much lower. Forty percent favor airstrikes against North Korea's nuclear facilities, while 52 percent are opposed. And 31 percent say they'd support a U.S.-led ground war to destroy North Korea's nuclear capability, while 62 percent are opposed.
More Hostile Toward Iraq
These numbers stand in sharp contrast to views on Iraq, where a near-unanimous 95 percent say the United States should try to block nuclear weapons development, and the military options command far broader support.
Sixty-eight percent say they'd favor airstrikes against Iraqi nuclear weapons facilities, and 63 percent say they'd support a U.S.-led ground war to destroy Iraq's ability to make nuclear weapons. Support for aid-backed diplomacy, meanwhile, is 14 points lower for Iraq than it is for North Korea.
Dealing With U.S. Threats
Method
North Korea
Iraq
Diplomacy/Economic Aid
70 %
56 %
Economic Embargo
67 %
70 %
Airstrikes vs. Nuclear Facilities
40
68
Ground War vs. Nuclear Capability
31
63
Sampling, data collection and tabulation
for this poll were done by TNS Intersearch.
Previous polling has shown that support for military action against Iraq depends on the circumstances posited — such as the level of casualties, the presence or lack of allied support, and in this formulation, the specific goal of removing Iraq's nuclear-weapons capability. Actual support for military action, should it occur, will depend on the actual circumstances.
Changing Perceptions
Concerns about nuclear weapons in the hands of these nations are high, but no higher than they were two months ago — and in Iraq's case, actually lower. In an ABCNEWS poll in early November, 53 percent were "very worried" about Iraq's efforts to develop nuclear weapons; it's 43 percent now. Thirty-eight percent are very worried about North Korea's nuclear efforts, about the same as it was.
As befits the potential consequences, both these are higher than the 27 percent who are "very worried" about the direction of the U.S. economy over the next few years.
Iraq Concerns vs. N. Korea Concerns
Worried
Very Worried
Iraqi Nuclear Weapons
79 %
43 %
N. Korea Nuclear Weapons
79
38
U.S. Economy
67
27
This poll also shows how the world has changed. Twenty years ago, Americans overwhelmingly cited the Soviet Union as the greatest threat to world peace. Back in July 2001, during the EP-3 spy plane flap, it was China. Today Iraq leads the list, cited by 33 percent, and North Korea is second, at 18 percent.
Greatest Threat to World Peace
Country
January 2003
July 2001
September 1981
Iraq
33 %
13 %
--
N. Korea
18
1
--
China
10
35
5
United States
10
8
7
Iran
3
5
5
Russia/Soviet Union
2
10
72
Methodology
This ABCNEWS poll was conducted by telephone Jan. 2-5 among a random national sample of 1,044 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Field work was done by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa.
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