But Support Is Also Rising for a Palestinian State
Analysis By Gary Langer and Daniel M. Merkle
April 22
— The latest convulsion of Mideast violence has produced a jump in support in the United States for the creation of a Palestinian state, regardless of the public's far greater sympathy for Israel than for its adversary.
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In an ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll, more than two-thirds of Americans, 68 percent, say Washington should recognize Palestine as an independent nation, up from 55 percent last fall. About as many also say Israel should negotiate directly with Yasser Arafat, which Ariel Sharon has rejected.
These appear to reflect more pragmatism — a desire for a resolution to the conflict — than admiration for Arafat: Three-quarters of Americans believe he is responsible for terrorist attacks against Israel, and nine in 10 say he can do more to end such attacks.
But there's criticism for Israel, as well: While two-thirds of Americans say its recent incursion into Palestinian areas was justified, six in 10 also say Israel should have done more to avoid civilian casualties there.
Like a Logjam
The current situation looks, as ever, like a logjam. Only 8 percent say Secretary of State Colin Powell's visit to the region last week produced a "great deal" of progress for peace; 51 percent, by contrast, say it did not improve prospects at all.
But the Bush administration doesn't get much of the blame: Just 11 percent say the lack of progress is mainly Powell's fault; instead 76 percent blame mainly the Palestinians, mainly the Israelis, or both equally.
Most, 60 percent, also say the United States is employing about the right amount of effort in trying to arrange a peace settlement. (A quarter say it should be doing more.) And President Bush gets a 57 percent approval rating for his work on the Mideast conflict — well below his overall job rating, 78 percent approval, but still majority support.
Most people, 54 percent, say the United States should mainly leave it to the two sides to make peace. But that leaves a substantial minority, 42 percent, who say the United States should take "the leading role" in trying to forge a peace agreement.
The Middle East Matters
There's majority agreement that the subject matters. Sixty-one percent say America's vital interests are at stake in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, far more than said that, for example, about Kosovo, Bosnia or Haiti or Somalia.
Those who think America's interests are at stake are more activist-minded. About half of them say the United States should take a leading role in arranging a peace settlement; that falls to 32 percent among those who don't see vital interests at stake.
One reason for concern is the war on terrorism: Fifty-four percent of Americans believe that U.S. support for Israel is hurting U.S. efforts in its anti-terrorism campaign. (Although fewer, 21 percent, think it's hurting "a great deal.")
And there's been a continuing, gradual decline in public belief that the United States is doing enough to try to win the support of Muslims around the world. Last October 69 percent said the United States was doing enough to win Muslim support for the war on terrorism; that declined to 54 percent in March, and it's down again, to 49 percent, now.
However, 60 percent say the United States should keep its level of support for Israel the same. Twenty-one percent favor decreasing U.S. support for Israel, a number that's risen by eight points since last fall.
Mideast Creates Divisions of Opinion
The Mideast situation creates many divisions in public opinion. Americans divide about evenly, for example, on whether the United States should reduce aid to Israel if it doesn't withdraw entirely from the Palestinian areas it invaded last month.
Similarly, the public divides about evenly on whether the United States has applied enough pressure on Israel to reach a peace agreement with the Palestinians (46 percent) or should apply more pressure (43 percent). The public also divides on whether the United States should provide significant economic aid to the Palestinian Authority in exchange for a Palestinian peace agreement with Israel.
Behind these are the most fundamental divisions of all, regarding the true intentions of each side. More than four in 10 Americans think Israel's ultimate goal is to take permanent control of the West Bank and Gaza, rather than returning them to the Palestinian Authority in exchange for a peace agreement. By the same token, the same number think the Palestinians' ultimate goal is to destroy the state of Israel, not simply to establish an independent Palestinian state alongside it.
Young adults express more skepticism about Israel and less about the Palestinians. Fifty-three percent of 18- to 30-year-olds think Israel's goal is to take permanent control of the West Bank and Gaza; that falls to 31 percent of those older than 60. Similarly, 56 percent of younger adults think the Palestinian Authority seeks to create an independent state alongside Israel, not to destroy it; this drops to 41 percent of those over 60.
Sympathy for Israel
As noted, basic sympathies are with Israel. Forty-nine percent of Americans say they sympathize more with Israel; 14 percent with the Palestinian Authority. And 50 percent say the Palestinians are more to blame for the recent violence, while 20 percent say the Israelis are more to blame.
In these views there's no significant difference between younger and older adults. But there is a partisan tint: Sixty-one percent of Republicans sympathize more with Israel, dropping to just under half of Democrats and independents. Sympathy is higher still among conservative Republicans, 67 percent, and white evangelical Protestants, 64 percent.
Even most of those who sympathize with Israel think the United States should recognize Palestine as an independent nation (63 percent) and think Israel should negotiate directly with Arafat (61 percent).
But their desire for peace has its limits. Most of those who are sympathetic to Israel, 56 percent, oppose U.S. economic aid to the Palestinian Authority in exchange for a peace agreement. Still, a significant minority, 41 percent, support this.
Americans Are Following the Conflict
Most Americans, 76 percent, are following the situation at least somewhat closely. That's just under the number who said they were following the war in Afghanistan in a February poll, and 19 points more than the number who followed the Winter Olympics.
Fewer, 28 percent, are following the situation "very" closely, peaking among men (35 percent), those over 60 (42 percent) and those with a college degree (40 percent).
People who are paying attention are much more likely to think the vital interests of the United States are at stake, and, as a result, more likely to think the United States should take a leading role in trying to arrange a peace agreement. Those paying attention also express more sympathy toward Israel, while those following less closely are more likely to express no opinion.
Americans Back Bush on Terror War
In another area, this poll finds that the war on terrorism continues to be the mainstay of Bush's public support: Eighty-one percent of Americans approve of the way he's handling it, and 56 percent approve "strongly."
Those are high ratings by any measure, albeit down from their peaks. Approval of Bush's handling of the anti-terrorism campaign is down 11 points from its high last October, and "strong" approval is down 19 points.
Bush's overall job approval rating has tracked a similar course - down 14 points from its peak on Oct. 9, with "strong" approval down by 29 points. But 78 percent approval is still a powerful score - five points better, for example, than Ronald Reagan's career high.
The war effort continues to have a halo effect on some of Bush's other ratings; he gets 71 percent approval for handling international affairs and 64 percent on the economy, beyond, as noted, 57 percent for his work on the Israel-Palestine conflict.
Seventy-three percent of Americans say the campaign against terrorism is going well, down 15 points from its peak but, again, still high. The glasses are not rose-colored, though; most (63 percent) say it's going just "fairly" well.
Indeed the number who say the war's going "very" well has declined steadily, from 32 percent in January to 21 percent in March and down to 11 percent now. And there's been a slight rebound, to 50 percent, in the number of people who say the United States must kill or capture Osama bin Laden for the war to be a success.
Finally, 73 percent remain concerned about the possibility of more major terrorist attacks in this country, a number that soared after Sept. 11, subsided a bit, then stabilized early last winter. These concerns are highest among women, and in the Northeast, where the Sept. 11 attacks occurred.
Methodology
This ABCNEWS/Washington Post survey was conducted by telephone April 18-21 among a random national sample of 1,207 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Field work was conducted by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa.
Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our PollVault
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