While a new ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll found 58 percent approve of his performance overall, Bush's ratings on the economy and the environment are a good bit lower — 50 percent and 46 percent approval, respectively. Fifty-six percent approve of his work on international affairs.
Compared to a month ago, fewer people are undecided about Bush's overall job performance — but the change has not been in his favor. Disapproval of his work has gained 10 points in the last month, while approval has gained a scant three points.
Perhaps more hazardous for Bush is a broad view that he favors corporate interests — a danger because presidents get much of their political cartilage from their connection with average Americans. The public — by a 2-1 margin, 61 percent to 31 percent — thinks Bush cares more about the interests of large corporations than about ordinary working people.
Bush would need a stronger sense of empathy particularly if the economy were to fall into recession; as his father demonstrated, economic hard times can very quickly erode a president's popularity. Even today, Bush's job approval rating is 21 points lower among people who think the country is heading into a recession, compared to those who see continued economic growth.
Issues and Priorities
This poll shows no movement on Bush's signature issue, a tax cut: When measured against other options for spending the federal surplus just 20 percent pick a tax cut as the single top priority, unchanged in the last month.
One reason is that people divide evenly on whether they'd get any personal benefit from Bush's tax plan, and only 11 percent think it would bring them a "great deal" of benefit. Another is that a big majority, seven in 10, doubt that the projected surplus, on which the tax cut is premised, will actually materialize. That fuels support for a "trigger" tying any tax cut to actual surpluses; 68 percent favor the idea.
Cutting taxes does get a higher priority than another hot topic in Washington, campaign finance reform. Twenty-nine percent say a tax cut should receive the "highest priority" from Bush and the Congress; that falls to 18 percent for campaign finance reform.
But both these issues trail others by very large margins. Fifty-three percent say education should receive the highest priority in Washington, 24 points more than a tax cut. Nearly as many, 47 percent, say the economy deserves a top priority; 42 percent, Social Security. Environmental protection gets a top priority from 27 percent, ranking it alongside a tax cut in importance to average Americans.
Needs "highest priority"
from Bush and Congress
Education 53%
Economy 47
Social Security 42
Tax cut 29
Environment 27
Campaign finance 18
Neither a tax cut nor campaign finance reform is unpopular in and of itself. (Indeed, just 36 percent say Bush's tax plan is "too big.") But there are doubts about both, either in terms of their effect and fairness (tax cut), their efficacy (campaign finance reform) or their urgency (both). Thus both have received consistently low priority compared to other issues on the public's agenda.
Other issues also have more of a natural constituency. For instance, younger adults with kids in school, are particularly concerned with education, less focused on Social Security, and decidedly not attracted, in particular, by campaign finance reform.
Economy and Markets
While there is broad economic concern in this
country, the stock market's recent dives don't seem to have worsened it. Fifty-eight percent of Americans think the country is heading into a recession, but that's about the same as it was in January, before the market rout.
Two-thirds are concerned about the market, but that concern is tempered; only about a quarter are "very concerned." One reason is that just eight percent of Americans say the market's steep drop has had a strongly negative impact on their own finances.
Thirty percent say they've been hurt at all by the market — fewer than might be expected, since 55 percent own stocks or stock funds. Apparently it's because the vast majority doesn't need, or plan, to lock in their paper losses by selling: Ninety-two percent of stock or fund owners describe themselves as "long-term, buy-and-hold investors."
Still, with stock ownership up, the market's effect is broader than it's been in the past. More people say they've been hurt by the market's drop this time than said so either in the October 1997 rout, or in the crash of October 1987.
Hurt by market drop
3/01 30 percent
10/97 14 percent
10/87 20 percent
A narrow majority, 52 percent, thinks the market's gyrations reflect underlying problems in the broader economy. That's more than felt this way in 1997 (38 percent), but fewer than in 1987 (60 percent).
Social Insecurity
One possible bit of fallout from the market is a decline in support for Bush's proposal to let Americans invest some of their Social Security tax money in stocks. Fifty-two percent favor the idea, down from six in 10 last fall and 64 percent in May 2000.
It's not clear that the market's fall is the cause, however, because concern about the market is not closely correlated with opposition to the plan. In fact stockholders remain more likely to support it, not less so.
Money Matters
As an aside, this poll demonstrates the linear relationship between income and stock ownership — a huge, income-based divide. (This also holds for education, which is closely correlated with income.) Among people with household incomes less than $20,000 a year, just 19 percent own stocks or mutual funds. Among those in $75,000+ households, stockholding soars to 82 percent.
Household income Size of Group % owning stocks
Less than $20,000 13% 19%
$20,000-$30,000 12 32
$30,000-$50,000 24 48
$50,000-$75,000 19 69
$75,000 and up 21 82
Methodology
This ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone March 22-25 among a random national sample of 903 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Field work was conducted by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa. 
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