Poll: Most Americans Favor Allied Attack Against Iraq Even if U.N. Objects
Analysis By Gary Langer
Feb. 10
— Most Americans say they'd support an allied attack against Iraq even over United Nations objections, a further sign of the public's increased support of the Bush administration in recent weeks.
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According to a new ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll, a steady two-thirds favor using force to oust Saddam Hussein. As has been well noted, that falls to half if the United Nations opposes it. But this poll poses another scenario: U.N. opposition, but backing from "some U.S. allies, such as Great Britain, Australia and Italy." In that case support for attacking rebounds to 57 percent.
This finding makes the public's desire for United Nations authorization look more like a preference than a condition. That's a contrast from public opinion in Europe, where polls have found that U.N. approval widely is seen as a prerequisite for war.
Americans' support for the administration's position slipped in mid-January but has regained strength since, starting even before President Bush's State of the Union address and Secretary of State Colin Powell's address to the Security Council last week. Evidence seems to be a key reason: Sixty-three percent now say the administration has presented enough evidence to justify force, a new high, up from 48 percent in mid-January.
Today "strong" support for attacking Iraq outstrips "strong" opposition by nearly 3-1, double its margin in mid-January. More than half of opponents say they might change their minds (compared to three in 10 supporters). And 59 percent favor giving the U.N. weapons inspectors weeks, not months, to finish their work.
Support for Attacking Iraq
Favor Attacking Iraq
66%
Favor if U.N. Opposes
50%
Favor if U.N. Opposes, But Some Allies Support
57%
Nonetheless, preference for a broad alliance trumps the desire for speed — suggesting the administration needs to walk a fine line between the two. Fifty-nine percent of Americans say it's more important to gain international support, even if that delays acting against Iraq; 37 percent prefer quick action, even without international support.
The reasons for public support for attacking Iraq are straightforward: Most Americans believe it's a threat to the United States, it has weapons of mass destruction, it supports terrorists, it's not cooperating with the U.N. inspectors and it's not a good candidate for diplomatic negotiations. Those leave little room for alternatives.
There's an instructive contrast with North Korea. In dealing with Iraq, just 30 percent of Americans see a chance that diplomacy and negotiation can solve the problem; 69 percent see little or no chance of it. With North Korea it's the opposite: 65 percent do see a chance for diplomacy.
But the sharp words between Pyongyang and Washington have not gone unnoticed. Confidence in negotiation with North Korea has lost 13 points since mid-January.
Chance for Diplomacy? Iraq vs. North Korea
Yes
No
Iraq
30%
69%
North Korea
65%
30%
Accordingly, the public by a substantial margin, 56-33 percent, sees Iraq as a greater threat than North Korea to the United States. And twice as many Americans are "very worried" about the situation with Iraq — 39 percent, compared to 20 percent "very worried" about North Korea. Iraq also easily trumps the economy as a high-level concern, despite considerable economic dissatisfaction these days.
Challenges on the Home Front
The economy nonetheless represents a continued challenge for Bush on the home front. When he took office, 70 percent of Americans said the economy was in good shape; today 72 percent say it's in bad shape ("not good" or even "poor"). Forty-nine percent disapprove of his handling of the economy, while just 47 percent approve.
In a recent memo, a Republican Party pollster noted that Presidents Reagan and Clinton both were re-elected with overall job approval ratings in the mid- to high 50s, and Bush's is better than that. However, Reagan and Clinton also had approvals in the mid- to high 50s specifically on handling the economy. On that, Bush's rating is worse.
In another measure of the public mood, Americans divide evenly, 49 percent to 49 percent, on whether they're dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States. This is both an economic and political measure, but largely an economic one: Among people who say the economy's in good shape, 84 percent are satisfied; among those who say it's in poor shape, 87 percent are dissatisfied. Those who say it's "not good" divide about evenly.
Partisanship is a factor as well: Seventy percent of Republicans are satisfied with the way things are going; 69 percent of Democrats are dissatisfied, and independents divide about evenly.
In an issue related to his economic stewardship, Bush also has a weak rating on handling the federal budget — 45 percent approve (including three-quarters of Republicans) while 45 percent disapprove (including three-quarters of Democrats). Previous ABCNEWS/Post polls have shown broad doubts about Bush's tax-cut plan and a preference for either greater spending on domestic programs, or deficit reduction.
With just half the public satisfied with the country's direction, and economic views as weak as they are, Bush's overall job approval rating continues to hold up quite well — it's now 64 percent, after slipping to 59 percent in January polls. And twice as many "strongly" approve of his work as "strongly" disapprove.
Most Approve of Bush's Response to Terrorism
As it's been since Sept. 11, 2001, the driving force behind Bush's approval rating is his response to terrorism: 74 percent approve. Even among Democrats, who find fault with Bush in many areas, 60 percent approve of his handling of the U.S. campaign against terrorism. (Among Republicans, it's a nearly unanimous 94 percent.)
On handling Iraq, 61 percent approve of Bush's work, and here partisanship is high: Eighty-four percent of Republicans approve, but only 39 percent of Democrats agree.
Bush has a lower approval rating, 50 percent, on handling North Korea; 36 percent disapprove, and 14 percent — more than on other issues — are undecided.
If there is war with Iraq, analysts say a substantial rebuilding effort will need to follow — and that's an element the public doesn't appear to have countenanced. On its face, 65 percent say that after a war the United States should work to rebuild and stabilize Iraq. But that drops to 37 percent if it means keeping 50,000 troops there for several years, and spending $15 billion a year, an estimate by a Brookings Institution economist cited by the Washington Post late last year.
Methodology
This ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Feb. 6-9 among a random national sample of 1,001 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Fieldwork was conducted by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa.
Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our PollVault.
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