Given the evidence on the streets, 77 percent now think most Iraqis are on the side of the United States — a huge 28-point jump from two weeks ago. And 81 percent now say going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do, up 12 points.
Overall public support for the war, steadily more than seven in 10 since it began, now stands at 80 percent, a new high, with a bit less partisanship. And President Bush benefits personally: his job approval rating has advanced to 77 percent, its best in 10 months.
Assessments of the war's progress, naturally, soared with the sudden collapse of the Iraqi government. The number of Americans who say the war is going "very" well nearly doubled from its level two weeks ago — 34 percent then, 66 percent now.
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| Sampling, data collection and tabulation
for this poll were done by TNS Intersearch. |
But sober views lie behind these assessments: Relatively few Americans, 18 percent, believe the war is basically over; instead 77 percent see more difficult fighting ahead. Nearly seven in 10 say that after the war, large numbers of U.S. troops should remain behind to help maintain peace. And a majority, 62 percent, expresses concern that the United States could get bogged down in a long and costly peacekeeping mission in Iraq.
Perhaps to avoid sole responsibility for winning the peace as well as the war, fewer than four in 10 say the United States should run Iraq until a new government is established there. Fifty-three percent instead would give top authority to the United Nations. (Democrats, in particular, want to see the United Nations in charge).
While most Americans express concerns about a troublesome peacekeeping mission, worries are lower on two other fronts. About four in 10 express concern either about the risk of long-term damage to U.S. relations with countries that opposed the war, such as France, Germany and Russia; or about the possibility that the United States will be too quick to use military force in other international disputes.
In terms of international benefits, nearly two-thirds think the war will produce a more stable situation in the Middle East, about as many as said so after the 1991 Gulf War. Fifty-two percent think the war "will leave the United States in a stronger position in the world," but that's far below its level (84 percent) after the Gulf War, possibly because this war lacked the explicit authorization of the United Nations.
Casualties
Beyond satisfaction with battlefield advances, the public continues to rate the level of casualties — military and civilian alike — as tolerable. Sixty-six percent now say the level of U.S. military casualties is acceptable, a number that's crept up from 58 percent two weeks ago. It's a key gauge because support for the war drops by 34 percentage points among those who say casualties are at an "unacceptable" level.
Eighty-two percent now say the United States is expending "about the right amount" of effort to avoid civilian casualties, compared to 68 percent two weeks ago. Fewer say the United States is doing either too little (7 percent) or too much (9 percent) to avoid harming civilians.
WMDs and War Support
U.S. officials have said a key post-war aim will be to search for the biological and chemical weapons Iraq is said to possess. But while finding them may help internationally, it's far from necessary to maintain domestic support for the war.
Indeed, among Americans who support the war, 90 percent say they'll support it even if the United States does not find chemical or biological weapons in Iraq. By contrast, if the United States does find such weapons, nearly a quarter of current opponents of the war say they'd support it instead.
The question is prospective, but at the moment the numbers net this way: If such weapons are not found, support for the war slips to a still-high 72 percent. And if they are found, support's 84 percent. Big majorities, either way.
As well as broad, support for the war is strong: Sixty-three percent of Americans now say they "strongly" support it, also a new high.
Bush
It's similar for Bush — 58 percent of Americans "strongly" approve of his job performance, his best "strong" approval in 16 months. And at 77 percent his overall approval rating has gained 18 points this year, after easing back in 2002. Still, Bush must be mindful of his father's fortunes: After soaring during the 1991 Gulf War, his job approval rating plummeted in the weak postwar economy.
Partisans
Partisanship, a steady feature in views of the war, eased a bit in this poll: Sixty-eight percent of Democrats now support the war — the most since it began — as do 91 percent of Republicans. (And 62 percent of Democrats approve of Bush's overall job performance).
There's a bigger division in intensity of support: While 81 percent of Republicans "strongly" support the war, this declines to 46 percent of Democrats.
Surprise Satistfaction and Saddam
In three last areas, this poll finds that most Americans, 70 percent, profess no surprise at the fast fall of Baghdad (a bit revisionist, perhaps, since last week more than eight in 10 predicted a tough fight); half say the war will be a success only if Saddam Hussein is killed or captured, not just removed from power; and 65 percent now say they're satisfied with the way things are going in the country, about what it was in a Gallup poll just after the war began, and sharply up from its prewar level.
Metholodology
This ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone April 9 among a random national sample of 509 adults. The results have a 4.5-point error margin. Field work was done by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa.
Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.
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