The Lucky Ones: Is It Serendipity or Smarts?

June 15, 2007 — -- How lucky can you get? It turns out there's an answer to that question — and she's working behind the counter at a deli on Long Island.

Five years ago, Valerie Wilson won $1 million in a New York State scratch-off card game. Last year, she did it again, beating odds of more than 3 trillion to one. Is she the luckiest woman in America? "Well, I'll tell you what I say, 'Yes, I am,'" Wilson said with a laugh. "I was lucky as hell."

But when was the last time you heard a successful person call himself lucky? We'd all rather think of ourselves as hardworking or destined for success, not merely lucky.

"When something bad happens to you, it's bad luck," said "Freakonomics" author Stephen Dubner, summarizing today's prevailing attitudes. "When something good happens to you, it's your skill and hard work. It's pretty simple."

Fact is, we've changed how we feel about luck. Once calling someone lucky was a compliment. Now it sounds like a put-down. Consider this: In 1927, Charles Lindbergh flew across the Atlantic and was hailed in Paris as "Lucky" Lindy; 78 years later, Lance Armstrong won his seventh Tour de France and was also hailed in Paris, but after all his superhuman exertion on his bike, can you imagine calling him "Lucky" Lance?

Bing Crosby was one of the consummate vocalists of the 20th century, yet the title of his autobiography was "Call Me Lucky." Back then, crediting luck was a familiar way for a show-business superstar to show modesty in the face of overwhelming success, as if to say, "This could've happened to anyone."

Now, even the most marginally talented entertainers seek to justify their time in the spotlight by citing their years of hard work and personal sacrifice, not just luck.

Consider, as few do these days, Kevin Federline, former consort to Britney Spears. She turned him from a backup dancer to a solo artist, but when asked what had led to his opportunity, he told Details magazine, "I've been dancing my a-- off since Fresno."

"We like to control our own fate, in general," Dubner said. "With luck, that's the thing you can't control, and I think that frightens people."

No one seems less likely to say he got lucky than successful businessmen. "Because it takes away from the brilliance of their accomplishments," said Bo Peabody, "and they don't want that."

Now a successful venture capitalist and restaurateur, Peabody has written a book entitled "Lucky or Smart?" about his days as the 20-year-old founder of a late 1990s Internet startup called Tripod that was bought by the search engine Lycos.