Undecided races of the 2024 election: Live results and analysis

More ballots were counted in Alaska last night, and the ballot measure asking Alaskans whether they want to repeal their top-four primary and ranked-choice general election is now trailing, 50.03% to 49.97%. If that holds, it would be a big deal for election reformers, as they would at least keep a toehold in the Last Frontier after their efforts to expand this system to several other states failed at the ballot box this year.

Meanwhile, in the state's U.S. House race, Republican Nick Begich now has 48.5% of first-place votes and Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola has 46.3%. Based on 538's analysis of the Cast Vote Record, which contains data on second-, third- and fourth-place votes as well, Begich would beat Peltola about 52% to 48% in ranked-choice voting based on the data we have today. We won't need to wait long to find out what happens in reality: Those ranked-choice tabulations will officially be run tomorrow around 5 p.m. local time (9 p.m. Eastern).

Pennsylvania's tight race for U.S. Senate has become tighter as outstanding ballots, including provisional ballots, have been tallied by counties around the state. Per ABC News's reports on the count, Republican Dave McCormick now leads Democratic Sen. Bob Casey Jr. by 0.24 percentage points, 48.81% to 48.57% — with a raw vote margin of about 17,000 votes. It's unclear exactly how many uncounted votes are still outstanding, with different estimates ranging from 17,000 (according to the Decision Desk earlier today) to 24,000 last night (according to NBC News).

Also affecting the count will be a ruling from the state Supreme Court favorable to McCormick that ordered counties to not count mail-in ballots that lack a correct handwritten date on the return envelope. As Democrats have a greater propensity to vote by mail, there's a good chance that ballots that aren't properly dated are at least somewhat more Democratic-leaning. The court's order came in response to the actions of Democratic-majority election boards in Philadelphia, Montgomery and Bucks Counties, which decided to tally ballots that didn't have this information despite earlier court rulings against doing so. Not surprisingly, McCormick's 2022 campaign for U.S. Senate fought for such ballots to be tallied in his razor-thin defeat in the GOP primary against Mehmet Oz, whereas McCormick's 2024 campaign has fought against their inclusion.

Regardless, Casey will have to win an extremely high percentage of any remaining votes to narrow the margin to a point where the state's impending recount might have some chance of giving him a lead. His current deficit (0.24 points) is four times larger than the largest margin reversed by a recount in the past two decades (0.06 points), according to an analysis by FairVote.

Jefferson Griffin, the Republican candidate for North Carolina Supreme Court, has officially requested a recount in what has become one of the closest elections of the year. This could change, as two counties have yet to certify their final vote totals, but right now, incumbent Democratic Justice Allison Riggs leads Griffin 50.01% to 49.99%, or a margin of 625 votes.

The recount will begin tomorrow and conclude by next Wednesday, Nov. 27. Unlike most races that go to recounts, this one is actually within the range where the recount might plausibly change the result: According to FairVote, statewide recounts since 2000 have shifted an average of 551 votes, or 0.03 percentage points.

Republicans currently have a 5-2 majority on the North Carolina Supreme Court, so control of the court isn't at stake in this election. But if Riggs loses, Democrats will be at a stiff 6-1 disadvantage.

Welcome to Week 3 of tracking election results at 538! With some states still counting their ballots and other races heading for a recount, we're still tracking about a dozen races that don't yet have projected winners.

In the U.S. Senate, we still don't know who won Pennsylvania, although things are looking very good for Republican Dave McCormick. In the House, there are five remaining undecided races, but it looks like Republicans are going to wind up with a 221-214 or 220-215 majority. Over the weekend, Democrat Derek Tran took the barest of leads (36 votes!) over Republican Rep. Michelle Steel in California's 45th District and seems likely to build on that lead as more ballots are counted. In Alaska's at-large district, Republican Nick Begich has a healthy lead over Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola that is expected to hold up when the state runs ranked-choice tabulations on Wednesday. In California's 13th District, Republican Rep. John Duarte currently has a 1-point lead, but Democrat Adam Gray could still catch up based on what's outstanding. Finally, Iowa's 1st District and Ohio's 9th District are going to recounts, but they are not expected to change who's leading in each of them (Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur, respectively).

We're also keeping an eye on a handful of races even further down the ballot. We still don't know whether ballot measures have passed to repeal ranked-choice voting in Alaska, raise the minimum wage in California or legalize sports betting in Missouri. The race for a seat on the North Carolina Supreme Court is currently separated by a margin of 20 votes and is almost certainly going to a recount. And a pair of recounts later this month will determine whether Republicans have taken a majority in the Minnesota state House.